Expect the following three themes today to come out of the world of California politics today: messaging, money, and momentum.

First, messaging... as the campaign of Phil Angelides releases a new statewide TV spot, which you can see here. The commercial features Angelides walking through a grouping of life-size Arnold Schwarzenegger cutouts, with the Democrat rattling off things that he says Schwarzenegger promised to handle one way... but then changed course, including interest group fundraising and cuts (actually scaling back, truth be told) in K-12 education funding.

"He really hasn't changed," says Angelides in the ad.

The ad comes just 12 days before the election, and as Angelides finds himself in an 18-point hole behind the governor in the newest public poll. In a news conference in Los Angeles this morning, Angelides media strategist Bill Carrick said the ad points out the fact that Schwarzenegger, in Carrick's words, is a "fraud" who's trying to hide from his record (more on the poll in a moment).

Second, money... today marks a filing deadline for candidates and campaigns to disclose how much money they've raised and spent on the 2006 election, through last week. As most political watchers will tell you, the money that's raised from here on out largely comes from independent expenditure groups and political parties-- the only two ways under current campaign finance laws that large sums of cash can be raised and spent in a short amount of time, with the hope of influencing a race. That means when we get a look at candidate accounts later today, it'll pretty much be the final word on their success (or failure) at attracting donors.

And third, momentum... today's Public Policy Institute of California poll reinforces the conventional wisdom about the race for governor. Maybe that's why Angelides strategist Carrick took shots at the poll's accuracy this morning. Calling it "weird" and a poll that reminds him of the movie Groundhog Day (when every day was exactly the same), Carrick said the poll's methodology and conclusions are "fundamentally wrong." He argued that PPIC's sample of voters was too conservative and too white, compared to who will actually turn out on election day. He argued the Schwarzenegger lead is actually only in single digits, and that Democrats in California are just as angry-- and motivated to vote-- as Democrats across the country. "We are working very hard to get out the Democratic vote, and inject some energy into the closing days of the campaign," he said.

Meantime, the governor continued his stealth campaign... stumping for the infrastructure bonds in front of a bipartisan group of officials in Fresno this morning. That was the only event... campaign-related or otherwise... on his schedule today, other than a private fundraiser in Sacramento. That certainly doesn't sound like a candidate who senses any chance of a momentum swing, does it?