Is the New Tobacco Tax Causing a Drop in Smoking? Big Time, Indicators Suggest
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Big Time, Indicators Suggest","publishDate":1499885624,"format":"standard","headTitle":"The California Report | KQED News","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Last fall, California voters approved the biggest increase in cigarette taxes since the state first began levying tobacco in the 1950s. Advocates for Proposition 56, which passed with a fairly overwhelming 64 percent of the vote, argued that a $2-per-pack tax hike would hurt pocketbooks enough to nudge millions of California smokers to quit, or at least to light up less frequently.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When the tax went into effect in April, smokers saw the average cost of a pack of cigarettes soar from under $6 to up to $9, making California one of the most expensive states in which to buy cigarettes. But the question then: Was that enough to force smokers to kick an increasingly expensive habit?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The early data suggest that yes, California cigarette sales have declined significantly since prices went up. In fact, the drop is even sharper than the state anticipated -- which could spell trouble for state coffers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[cigtax]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cigarette pack \"distributions\" -- tax lingo for a pack of cigarettes typically sold from a distributor to a retailer, and a good proxy for consumption -- dropped 56 percent year-over-year in the two months following the tax increase, according to data obtained from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration and analyzed by CALmatters. That’s a decline of nearly 82 million packs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a big effect,” said Dr. Stanton Glantz, a researcher at UCSF's Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education. “I have felt for a long time where we’re getting to the point in California where smoking is so low that a couple of good shoves like this one, and we might be rid of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Glantz and other tobacco experts cautioned that it is still far too early to make definitive conclusions: It’s difficult to draw inferences from two months of data, as both suppliers and consumers are still figuring out what they can and can’t afford.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Knowing that prices were about to rise, tobacco distributors and smokers also rushed to stockpile as many cigarettes as possible the month preceding the tax hike, deflating the April and May figures. California cigarette distributors sold nearly 104 million cigarette packs in March, by far the most of any month in the last two years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=\"7wYFkDkJqpG5LX8BPIbgWZ6c23FJqkpm\"]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But even after adjusting for stockpiling, the tax hike appears to be having a major impact: Cigarette sales still dropped 23 percent year-over-year for the three-month period, including the pretax run-up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Experts say cigarette consumption will likely rise slightly in the months ahead, before stabilizing in the next four to five months. Lower-income and younger smokers are typically the first to cut back in response to a tax hike.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But what’s beneficial for public health isn’t necessarily good for the state budget, at least in the near term.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Proposition 56 was supposed to generate an additional $1.3 billion in revenue for the state to shore up Medi-Cal, the state health insurance program for low-income Californians. In the two months since the tax has been in place, the state has raised a total of $182 million -- below what the Brown administration was expecting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Sales are still more sluggish than had been originally anticipated,\" H.D. Palmer, spokesman for the Department of Finance, said via email. \"Given that we only have two months of data, it is too early to predict a trend. If the current trend holds, we would likely make a revision to our expected decline in consumption.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=\"B6j14NxRMaFQ9SqSivOZuj8kr97QZdE1\"]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How the new cigarette tax revenue would be spent became a \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-tobacco-tax-budget-20170316-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hot-button issue\u003c/a> in state budget negotiations last month. Ultimately, legislators and Gov. Jerry Brown agreed to divide the new revenue between increased payments to physicians and general Medi-Cal expenses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Palmer said that if cigarette tax revenues continue to come in lower than anticipated, the administration would need to identify an alternative revenue source or propose cutbacks to Medi-Cal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, tax revenue is just one side of the equation when it comes to the fiscal effects of the new cigarette tax. Savings from lower health care costs as more low-income smokers quit are not factored into the revenue side of the state budget.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CALmatters.org\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politic\u003c/em>s.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Two months after California enacted a new $2-per-pack tax, one cigarette sales indicator has dropped 56 percent -- further than the state expected.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1499903494,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":21,"wordCount":732},"headData":{"title":"Is the New Tobacco Tax Causing a Drop in Smoking? Big Time, Indicators Suggest | KQED","description":"Two months after California enacted a new $2-per-pack tax, one cigarette sales indicator has dropped 56 percent -- further than the state expected.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"11563885 https://ww2.kqed.org/news/?p=11563885","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2017/07/12/is-the-new-tobacco-tax-causing-a-drop-in-smoking-big-time-indicators-suggest/","disqusTitle":"Is the New Tobacco Tax Causing a Drop in Smoking? Big Time, Indicators Suggest","source":"CALmatters","sourceUrl":"https://calmatters.org/","nprByline":"\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/articles/author/matt-levin/\">Matt Levin\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>","path":"/news/11563885/is-the-new-tobacco-tax-causing-a-drop-in-smoking-big-time-indicators-suggest","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Last fall, California voters approved the biggest increase in cigarette taxes since the state first began levying tobacco in the 1950s. Advocates for Proposition 56, which passed with a fairly overwhelming 64 percent of the vote, argued that a $2-per-pack tax hike would hurt pocketbooks enough to nudge millions of California smokers to quit, or at least to light up less frequently.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When the tax went into effect in April, smokers saw the average cost of a pack of cigarettes soar from under $6 to up to $9, making California one of the most expensive states in which to buy cigarettes. But the question then: Was that enough to force smokers to kick an increasingly expensive habit?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The early data suggest that yes, California cigarette sales have declined significantly since prices went up. In fact, the drop is even sharper than the state anticipated -- which could spell trouble for state coffers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[cigtax]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cigarette pack \"distributions\" -- tax lingo for a pack of cigarettes typically sold from a distributor to a retailer, and a good proxy for consumption -- dropped 56 percent year-over-year in the two months following the tax increase, according to data obtained from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration and analyzed by CALmatters. That’s a decline of nearly 82 million packs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a big effect,” said Dr. Stanton Glantz, a researcher at UCSF's Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education. “I have felt for a long time where we’re getting to the point in California where smoking is so low that a couple of good shoves like this one, and we might be rid of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Glantz and other tobacco experts cautioned that it is still far too early to make definitive conclusions: It’s difficult to draw inferences from two months of data, as both suppliers and consumers are still figuring out what they can and can’t afford.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Knowing that prices were about to rise, tobacco distributors and smokers also rushed to stockpile as many cigarettes as possible the month preceding the tax hike, deflating the April and May figures. California cigarette distributors sold nearly 104 million cigarette packs in March, by far the most of any month in the last two years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But even after adjusting for stockpiling, the tax hike appears to be having a major impact: Cigarette sales still dropped 23 percent year-over-year for the three-month period, including the pretax run-up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Experts say cigarette consumption will likely rise slightly in the months ahead, before stabilizing in the next four to five months. Lower-income and younger smokers are typically the first to cut back in response to a tax hike.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But what’s beneficial for public health isn’t necessarily good for the state budget, at least in the near term.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Proposition 56 was supposed to generate an additional $1.3 billion in revenue for the state to shore up Medi-Cal, the state health insurance program for low-income Californians. In the two months since the tax has been in place, the state has raised a total of $182 million -- below what the Brown administration was expecting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Sales are still more sluggish than had been originally anticipated,\" H.D. Palmer, spokesman for the Department of Finance, said via email. \"Given that we only have two months of data, it is too early to predict a trend. If the current trend holds, we would likely make a revision to our expected decline in consumption.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How the new cigarette tax revenue would be spent became a \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-tobacco-tax-budget-20170316-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hot-button issue\u003c/a> in state budget negotiations last month. Ultimately, legislators and Gov. Jerry Brown agreed to divide the new revenue between increased payments to physicians and general Medi-Cal expenses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Palmer said that if cigarette tax revenues continue to come in lower than anticipated, the administration would need to identify an alternative revenue source or propose cutbacks to Medi-Cal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, tax revenue is just one side of the equation when it comes to the fiscal effects of the new cigarette tax. Savings from lower health care costs as more low-income smokers quit are not factored into the revenue side of the state budget.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CALmatters.org\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politic\u003c/em>s.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/news/11563885/is-the-new-tobacco-tax-causing-a-drop-in-smoking-big-time-indicators-suggest","authors":["byline_news_11563885"],"programs":["news_6944","news_72"],"categories":["news_1758","news_457","news_8","news_13"],"tags":["news_458","news_423","news_17286","news_2561"],"affiliates":["news_18481"],"featImg":"news_11563889","label":"source_news_11563885"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. 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We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/mindshift2021-tile-3000x3000-1-scaled-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED MindShift: How We Will Learn","officialWebsiteLink":"/mindshift/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"2"},"link":"/podcasts/mindshift","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mindshift-podcast/id1078765985","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/464615685/mind-shift-podcast","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/stories-teachers-share","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/0MxSpNYZKNprFLCl7eEtyx"}},"morning-edition":{"id":"morning-edition","title":"Morning Edition","info":"\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. Hosts Steve Inskeep, David Greene and Rachel Martin bring you the latest breaking news and features to prepare you for the day.","airtime":"MON-FRI 3am-9am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/2021/10/ME_1400.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.npr.org/programs/morning-edition/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/morning-edition"},"onourwatch":{"id":"onourwatch","title":"On Our Watch","tagline":"Police secrets, unsealed","info":"For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/OOW_Tile_Final.png","imageAlt":"On Our Watch from NPR and KQED","officialWebsiteLink":"/podcasts/onourwatch","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"1"},"link":"/podcasts/onourwatch","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1567098962","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5ucHIub3JnLzUxMDM2MC9wb2RjYXN0LnhtbD9zYz1nb29nbGVwb2RjYXN0cw","npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/onourwatch","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/0OLWoyizopu6tY1XiuX70x","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/On-Our-Watch-p1436229/","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/show/on-our-watch","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510360/podcast.xml"}},"on-the-media":{"id":"on-the-media","title":"On The Media","info":"Our weekly podcast explores how the media 'sausage' is made, casts an incisive eye on fluctuations in the marketplace of ideas, and examines threats to the freedom of information and expression in America and abroad. 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