Marin County Approves Contract to Prepare for Rising Seas and Extreme Storms
US Navy Acknowledges Rising Toxic Groundwater Threat at SF Superfund Site
Annual Climate Negotiations Are About To Start. Do They Matter?
What Does 'Unavoidable' West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Mean for the Bay Area?
California Mandates Coastal Cities Plan for Future Sea-Level Rise
MAP: More Than 5,000 Toxic Sites Along SF Bay Threatened by Rising Groundwater, New Study Finds
How Sea Level Rise Poses a Looming Threat to San Leandro's Underground Infrastructure
San Mateo County’s New Sea Level Rise Plan Calls for a 100-Foot Buffer Zone for Shoreline Development
Promising to Prevent Floods at Treasure Island, Builders Downplay Risk of Sea Rise
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Engineers say planned fortifications will hold — but with flood risk accelerating, no one knows for how long.","credit":"Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press","altTag":"An aerial view of treasure Island.","description":"Developers have redesigned Treasure Island to withstand a rising San Francisco Bay, elevating land and setting aside space for ever-higher sea walls. Engineers say planned fortifications will hold — but with flood risk accelerating, no one knows for how long. 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This could mean creating a new sea-level rise department. Residents and climate advocates argue whatever the firm comes up with must benefit communities of color, who face disproportionate adverse outcomes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The study aims to develop “a governance structure that will unite the community,” said Ariel Espiritu Santo, an assistant county executive with Marin County, who presented on the topic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The project will have two phases: recommending a sea-level rise decision-making model and determining how the county can fund and support the model. It will cost over $500,000 and has a late 2025 timeline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This project is timely because it occurs in tandem with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981687/the-bay-could-soon-have-its-first-region-wide-sea-level-rise-plan-but-no-one-to-enforce-it\">a Bay Area sea-level rise plan due at the end of the year\u003c/a> by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission. The plan, led by Dana Brechwald, is developing standards for sub-regional strategies like the one Marin may consider.[pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation=\"Dana Brechwald, assistant planning director for climate adaptation, San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission\"]‘Their lives are just as valuable as people who own multimillion-dollar properties on the shoreline.’[/pullquote]Communities on the edges of the county frequently flood during king tides and storms — and inundation may get much worse by the end of the century. In the county alone, rising tides and extreme storms could impact more than 120 miles of roads and 10,000 buildings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brechwald said the study could result in a new sea-level rise department \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1985919/san-mateo-county-proposes-off-shore-doors-to-combat-sea-level-rise\">like San Mateo County formed in 2020\u003c/a>. For it to be successful, she said the county needs to protect the most vulnerable residents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Their lives are just as valuable as people who own multimillion-dollar properties on the shoreline,” she said.[aside label='More on Sea-Level Rise' tag='sea-level-rise']The county plans to address equity issues within its review and mandate the consultant to create a governance structure that “lifts up the voices of those that will be most directly impacted by it,” Espiritu Santo said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Residents in places like Marin City, a bowl of a town sandwiched between steep mountains and Highway 101 and just 5 miles north of the Golden Gate Bridge, are no strangers to flooding issues and have advocated for solutions for decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Marin City has flooded for over 80 years,” said Marin City resident and climate advocate Terrie Harris-Green.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Creating a new department to tackle sea-level rise, however, will be complex, and Gary Griggs, a distinguished professor of sciences at UC Santa Cruz, said putting the onus on one agency to prepare for sea-level rise could be shortsighted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m a little cautious of a whole new department,” he said, especially when staff in existing programs and departments can work together to plan for sea-level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The real question he asked is, “How can you bring those people together?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Marin Board of Supervisors voted on a $500,000 plan to potentially restructure county government to protect over 110 miles of shoreline from sea-level rise. The initiative seeks to address racial equity disparities in the county’s response to sea-level rise.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1710886516,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":622},"headData":{"title":"Marin County Approves Contract to Prepare for Rising Seas and Extreme Storms | KQED","description":"Marin Board of Supervisors voted on a $500,000 plan to potentially restructure county government to protect over 110 miles of shoreline from sea-level rise. The initiative seeks to address racial equity disparities in the county’s response to sea-level rise.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Marin County Approves Contract to Prepare for Rising Seas and Extreme Storms","datePublished":"2024-03-19T20:55:28.000Z","dateModified":"2024-03-19T22:15:16.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1991936/marin-county-approves-contract-to-prepare-for-rising-seas-and-extreme-storms","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Readying Marin County for future sea-level rise — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life\">as much as 3 feet by the end of the century\u003c/a> — starts with reimagining how local governments think about the impact of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s why the Marin County Board of Supervisors approved a contract on Tuesday for a plan that could potentially restructure county government to prepare the more than 110 miles of coastal and bay shoreline for rising tides and extreme storms.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"science_1980525","hero":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/10/GettyImages-1348806842-1020x691.jpg","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>County officials want AECOM, the consulting firm awarded the contract, to figure out how to advance solutions for rising seas while best using existing staff and resources to prepare for climate effects. This could mean creating a new sea-level rise department. Residents and climate advocates argue whatever the firm comes up with must benefit communities of color, who face disproportionate adverse outcomes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The study aims to develop “a governance structure that will unite the community,” said Ariel Espiritu Santo, an assistant county executive with Marin County, who presented on the topic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The project will have two phases: recommending a sea-level rise decision-making model and determining how the county can fund and support the model. It will cost over $500,000 and has a late 2025 timeline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This project is timely because it occurs in tandem with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981687/the-bay-could-soon-have-its-first-region-wide-sea-level-rise-plan-but-no-one-to-enforce-it\">a Bay Area sea-level rise plan due at the end of the year\u003c/a> by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission. The plan, led by Dana Brechwald, is developing standards for sub-regional strategies like the one Marin may consider.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘Their lives are just as valuable as people who own multimillion-dollar properties on the shoreline.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Dana Brechwald, assistant planning director for climate adaptation, San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Communities on the edges of the county frequently flood during king tides and storms — and inundation may get much worse by the end of the century. In the county alone, rising tides and extreme storms could impact more than 120 miles of roads and 10,000 buildings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brechwald said the study could result in a new sea-level rise department \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1985919/san-mateo-county-proposes-off-shore-doors-to-combat-sea-level-rise\">like San Mateo County formed in 2020\u003c/a>. For it to be successful, she said the county needs to protect the most vulnerable residents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Their lives are just as valuable as people who own multimillion-dollar properties on the shoreline,” she said.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"label":"More on Sea-Level Rise ","tag":"sea-level-rise"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>The county plans to address equity issues within its review and mandate the consultant to create a governance structure that “lifts up the voices of those that will be most directly impacted by it,” Espiritu Santo said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Residents in places like Marin City, a bowl of a town sandwiched between steep mountains and Highway 101 and just 5 miles north of the Golden Gate Bridge, are no strangers to flooding issues and have advocated for solutions for decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Marin City has flooded for over 80 years,” said Marin City resident and climate advocate Terrie Harris-Green.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Creating a new department to tackle sea-level rise, however, will be complex, and Gary Griggs, a distinguished professor of sciences at UC Santa Cruz, said putting the onus on one agency to prepare for sea-level rise could be shortsighted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m a little cautious of a whole new department,” he said, especially when staff in existing programs and departments can work together to plan for sea-level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The real question he asked is, “How can you bring those people together?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1991936/marin-county-approves-contract-to-prepare-for-rising-seas-and-extreme-storms","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_856","science_194","science_4414","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1991941","label":"science"},"science_1991758":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1991758","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1991758","score":null,"sort":[1709841653000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"u-s-navy-acknowledges-rising-toxic-groundwater-threat-at-sf-superfund-site","title":"US Navy Acknowledges Rising Toxic Groundwater Threat at SF Superfund Site","publishDate":1709841653,"format":"standard","headTitle":"US Navy Acknowledges Rising Toxic Groundwater Threat at SF Superfund Site | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>The U.S. Navy, for the first time, has acknowledged what Bay Area climate scientists and residents have asked the agency to look into for years: that in just over a decade, potentially toxic groundwater could surface at a San Francisco Superfund site partly because of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Every five years, the agency reviews the cleanup of the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard next to the Bayview-Hunters Point neighborhood. The agency studied how climate effects — sea-level rise, groundwater rise and storm surge — could impact the cleanup of one of the nation’s largest and most complicated Superfund sites. The Navy finished the review in November and \u003ca href=\"https://www.bracpmo.navy.mil/Library/Announcements/Display/Article/3653648/former-nsy-hunters-point-fifth-cercla-five-year-review-draft/\">released it to the public in late January.\u003c/a> The details of the climate review were buried deep in a 566-page document, and KQED is reporting on them for the first time. [pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation=\"Arieann Harrison, founder and CEO, Marie Harrison Community Foundation\"]‘The five-year review based on sea-level rise confirms some of our collective concerns in Bayview-Hunters Point.’[/pullquote]The Navy found that in 2035, contaminated groundwater from heavy metals and “low-level radiological objects” — steeping in the water like a tea bag — could surface in an area of the site called “Parcel D-1,” which the Navy used for ship repair, maintenance and radiological research. The Navy capped this area with asphalt to keep any remaining pollution underground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Navy’s assessment said heavy metals in permanent groundwater could surface in five other places by 2065.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The five-year review based on sea-level rise confirms some of our collective concerns in Bayview-Hunters Point,” said Arieann Harrison, founder and CEO of the Marie Harrison Community Foundation, an environmental justice group serving the Bayview community.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s going to take more work to reach the goal of creating a safe environment for us all,” she added in an email.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Navy also found that a 100-year storm surge in 2035 could cause flooding in some areas. By 2065, “a 100-year storm surge would impact portions of all parcels.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report raises fresh questions about the city’s plans to build thousands of homes on what is an exceedingly complex and ongoing cleanup effort. When finished, \u003ca href=\"https://sfocii.org/projects/hunters-point-shipyard-candlestick-point-2/overview\">the 693-acre Candlestick Point-Hunters Point Shipyard project — which the Superfund site is part of — could have more than 10,000 housing units\u003c/a>. The development would include two new waterfront neighborhoods with housing, retail, and over 340 acres of parks and open space.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1991763\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1993px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1991763\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1.jpg\" alt=\"Two side by side aerial maps of the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard. A dark blue shaded areas show where flooding could occur from storms in 2035 and 2065.\" width=\"1993\" height=\"909\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1.jpg 1993w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-800x365.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-1020x465.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-160x73.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-768x350.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-1536x701.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-1920x876.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1993px) 100vw, 1993px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">In a changing climate, the blue-shaded areas depict how a 100-year storm event could temporarily flood a portion of the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard by 2035 and 2065. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of U.S. Navy)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Bay Area climate scientists, like UC Berkeley’s Kristina Hill, have sounded the alarm for years that anthropogenic climate change causing rising seas will push up groundwater levels and mix with contaminants with the possibility of coming in contact with people and the environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nearly two years ago, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979658/poorly-prepared-sf-civil-grand-jury-slams-city-for-not-protecting-residents-from-toxic-contamination\">the San Francisco Civil Grand Jury issued a report alerting the public to the fact that groundwater rise \u003c/a>— a result of seas rising in response to global emissions melting ice caps and expanding oceans — could significantly impact the site in the coming decades. [pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation=\"Sara Miles, a member of the grand jury behind the report\"]‘We feel vindicated that the Navy thinks this is a serious threat that needs to be looked at and also that they understand that it’s imminent.’[/pullquote]“We feel vindicated that the Navy thinks this is a serious threat that needs to be looked at and also that they understand that it’s imminent,” said Sara Miles, a member of the grand jury behind the report. “This is a serious issue that needs to be addressed before there’s a land transfer, not to mention any more housing being built in those areas.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Michael Pound, a base realignment and closure environmental coordinator with the Navy, defended the agency’s work to prepare the site for one of San Francisco’s most ambitious development projects in a generation. He said the Navy is taking a proactive approach to how rising seas could affect the Superfund site.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The Navy has not only considered climate change at Hunters Point for many years, but it has already developed some infrastructure at the Shipyard to prepare for future sea-level rise,” he said in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Navy has armored and extended part of the site with a seawall and a landfill cap to protect against a 100-year storm and three feet of sea-level rise. Based on the two sea-level rise projections, the Navy, working with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and state regulatory agencies, will develop timelines for the Navy’s ongoing site-specific evaluations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA oversees the cleanup of Superfund sites and is studying the Navy’s latest review filing, along with California environmental agencies, the San Francisco Bay Regional Water Quality Control Board and the California Department of Toxic Substances Control. Pound said it could be finalized by this summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>San Francisco leaders respond\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Mayor London Breed \u003ca href=\"https://civilgrandjury.sfgov.org/2021_2022/Hunters%20Point%20Response_MYR_081122.pdf\">did not agree with some of the Civil Grand Jury’s findings and recommendations\u003c/a> from 2022. In a statement, her office said the city is working with the Navy “to proactively ensure that all the actors responsible for the clean-up process are using remediation best practices so that the community’s health is, and remains, protected.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>District 10 Supervisor Shamann Walton represents the Hunters Point area. His office declined an interview for this story.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1991764\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1993px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1991764\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1.jpg\" alt=\"Two side by side aerial maps of the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard. Dark blue circles are randomly spread out across the land showcasing where groundwater could be within three feet of the surface in 2035 and 2065.\" width=\"1993\" height=\"909\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1.jpg 1993w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-800x365.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-1020x465.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-160x73.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-768x350.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-1536x701.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-1920x876.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1993px) 100vw, 1993px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">In a changing climate, the dark blue circles show where groundwater could rise to within 3 feet of the surface at the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard by 2035 and 2065. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of U.S. Navy)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The San Francisco Department of Public Health wrote that the agency is conducting an in-depth analysis of the five-year review, including the section on climate impacts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2021, the Navy found nearly two dozen samples at the site contaminated by Strontium-90, a radioactive isotope that can cause cancer. In September 2018, the agency recovered a radioactive deck marker, more than a decade after the federal government declared the area safe and free of radioactive waste.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1985646/radioactive-object-found-at-san-franciscos-hunters-point-naval-shipyard-raises-new-concerns\">Last December, the Navy said it detected another piece of radioactive material\u003c/a> — a chip of glass smaller than a dime — during routine testing at the former Hunters Point Naval Shipyard in San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Located next to a historically Black neighborhood where more than 35,000 people live, the Tetris-shaped 866-acre shipyard comprises concrete docking bays and abandoned buildings that jut out of San Francisco’s southeast shoreline. In the middle of the last century, the Navy used the site to decontaminate ships after atomic bomb tests, a process that contaminated the soil with radionuclides, heavy metals and petroleum fuels, among other toxic compounds.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>‘The whole area could be flooded’\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Residents, environmental advocates and climate scientists applaud the Navy for studying how climate change could alter the site. However, they said environmental agencies should require the Navy to conduct a more thorough cleanup before any developer builds housing on the old shipyard.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jeff Weitzel was on the civil grand jury that advised the city to look further into how groundwater rise will likely surface contamination at the shipyard. He said he was surprised the Navy looked at time horizons so near into the future and wished the agency would have considered a century ahead because homes built on the site would sit vulnerable for decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1991771\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1991771\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3.jpg\" alt=\"Two side by side aerial maps of the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard. Dark blue circles are randomly spread out across the land showcasing where groundwater could emerge above the land surface in 2035 and 2065.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"952\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-800x381.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-1020x486.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-160x76.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-768x366.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-1536x731.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-1920x914.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">In a changing climate, the circled light blue areas depict where groundwater could emerge above ground at the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard by 2035 and 2065. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of U.S. Navy)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“If they look 100 years in the future, it might look two to four times as alarming,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weitzel also notes that the Navy’s study looks separately at flooding from storms, groundwater, and rising sea levels. He said a composite view is needed to understand actual vulnerability clearly. [pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation=\"Jeff Weitzel, civil grand jury member who advised the city\"]‘If they look 100 years in the future, it might look two to four times as alarming.’[/pullquote]“The whole area could be flooded; that’s what those maps are showing,” he said. “If we’re talking about building an entire community in that area, that has to be taken into account. There are all these chemicals under this soil, and we don’t know how they might be sneaking out. It’s very alarming.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Dr. Ahimsa Porter Sumchai, who tests the bodies of Bayview-Hunters Point residents to determine if they’ve been exposed to contamination through her Hunters Point Biomonitoring Foundation, the Navy’s findings are “devastating.” She said the city should question whether it is a good idea to build on the site with contamination still in the soil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The Navy did go the extra mile in projecting climate change, and I think that they offered a more sensitive and respectful analysis of the protectiveness of the most dangerously contaminated parcels,” she said. “The bottom line is that the Navy is telling you the shipyard, in its current state, is not fully protective of human health and the environment.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1991775\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1991775\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Dr. Ahimsa Porter Sumchai displays a map of Bayview Hunters Point at her office in Bayview, San Francisco, on Feb. 25, 2022. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Porter Sumchai has screened more than 150 residents and found elevated levels of contaminants like uranium, plutonium and radioactive potassium — some of which she notes can cause cancer in people when exposed to them over a period of time. Her next step is to create a toxic registry of the around 35,000 people who live within a one-mile perimeter of the Superfund site.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of the clustering we are seeing is within the half-mile perimeter of the base,” she said. “The longer people have lived close to the base, the more significant their body burdens are.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>‘Water brings it all together’\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Hill has spent much of the past decade deciphering how human-caused climate change will push up groundwater and come in contact with contamination in soil. Her findings \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1983106/map-more-than-5000-toxic-sites-along-sf-bay-are-threatened-by-rising-groundwater-new-study-finds\">showcase as many as 5,000 toxic sites in the Bay Area alone are at risk of inundation\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In reading the Navy’s review, the Institute for Urban and Regional Development director at UC Berkeley commends the agency for “looking at the issue at all” but said its methods were not granular enough. She said the Navy’s analysis is missing an understanding of how water moves. [aside label='More on Climate Change' tag='climate-change']The Navy assumed that a certain level of sea-level rise would push up groundwater unilaterally “as if it’s carved out of wood or ice” to see where it touches land or comes within three feet of the surface.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m concerned that there might be places where contaminants could flow off their site towards other parcels and certainly towards the bay,” Hill said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Water moves differently based on topography, and because much of the soil on site is fill material, she said it is hard to know how the water will move. She suggests the Navy study each part of the site to decipher how surface water and groundwater will shift as seas rise and storms become more intense.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Water brings it all together,” she said. “I would definitely hesitate about whether this land is ready for housing because they haven’t done a reasonably comprehensive study considering how groundwater moves.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Navy said it plans to evaluate how contaminants could move in water using “more sophisticated groundwater modeling.” [pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation=\"Kristina Hill, climate scientist, UC Berkeley\"]‘This isn’t an unsolvable problem where there’s already housing built. … It takes one family to suffer impacts, and everyone will regret not doing a better study.’[/pullquote]The agency will also look at the latest sea-level rise guidance from California’s Department of Toxic Substances Control. The first study would prioritize the 2035 scenario where “groundwater is first projected to rise above the current land surface.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Hill said the way to get around the troubles with contaminated groundwater is simple: remove all the contaminated soil or “treat them on-site with a fast enough process that it’ll be clean by the time the ocean gets there, or the groundwater gets up to it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This isn’t an unsolvable problem where there’s already housing built,” she said.” So, why not clean it up? It takes one family to suffer impacts, and everyone will regret not doing a better study.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Navy plans to discuss the climate portion of the review at the Hunters Point Shipyard Citizens Advisory Committee meeting on March 25 and is holding a community workshop on April 22. The last day for public comment on the Navy’s review is March 31.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Potentially toxic waste could surface at a San Francisco Superfund site in just over a decade, partly because of human-caused climate change.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1709843316,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":38,"wordCount":2289},"headData":{"title":"US Navy Acknowledges Rising Toxic Groundwater Threat at SF Superfund Site | KQED","description":"Potentially toxic waste could surface at a San Francisco Superfund site in just over a decade, partly because of human-caused climate change.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"US Navy Acknowledges Rising Toxic Groundwater Threat at SF Superfund Site","datePublished":"2024-03-07T20:00:53.000Z","dateModified":"2024-03-07T20:28:36.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1991758/u-s-navy-acknowledges-rising-toxic-groundwater-threat-at-sf-superfund-site","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The U.S. Navy, for the first time, has acknowledged what Bay Area climate scientists and residents have asked the agency to look into for years: that in just over a decade, potentially toxic groundwater could surface at a San Francisco Superfund site partly because of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Every five years, the agency reviews the cleanup of the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard next to the Bayview-Hunters Point neighborhood. The agency studied how climate effects — sea-level rise, groundwater rise and storm surge — could impact the cleanup of one of the nation’s largest and most complicated Superfund sites. The Navy finished the review in November and \u003ca href=\"https://www.bracpmo.navy.mil/Library/Announcements/Display/Article/3653648/former-nsy-hunters-point-fifth-cercla-five-year-review-draft/\">released it to the public in late January.\u003c/a> The details of the climate review were buried deep in a 566-page document, and KQED is reporting on them for the first time. \u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘The five-year review based on sea-level rise confirms some of our collective concerns in Bayview-Hunters Point.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Arieann Harrison, founder and CEO, Marie Harrison Community Foundation","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>The Navy found that in 2035, contaminated groundwater from heavy metals and “low-level radiological objects” — steeping in the water like a tea bag — could surface in an area of the site called “Parcel D-1,” which the Navy used for ship repair, maintenance and radiological research. The Navy capped this area with asphalt to keep any remaining pollution underground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Navy’s assessment said heavy metals in permanent groundwater could surface in five other places by 2065.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The five-year review based on sea-level rise confirms some of our collective concerns in Bayview-Hunters Point,” said Arieann Harrison, founder and CEO of the Marie Harrison Community Foundation, an environmental justice group serving the Bayview community.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s going to take more work to reach the goal of creating a safe environment for us all,” she added in an email.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Navy also found that a 100-year storm surge in 2035 could cause flooding in some areas. By 2065, “a 100-year storm surge would impact portions of all parcels.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report raises fresh questions about the city’s plans to build thousands of homes on what is an exceedingly complex and ongoing cleanup effort. When finished, \u003ca href=\"https://sfocii.org/projects/hunters-point-shipyard-candlestick-point-2/overview\">the 693-acre Candlestick Point-Hunters Point Shipyard project — which the Superfund site is part of — could have more than 10,000 housing units\u003c/a>. The development would include two new waterfront neighborhoods with housing, retail, and over 340 acres of parks and open space.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1991763\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1993px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1991763\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1.jpg\" alt=\"Two side by side aerial maps of the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard. A dark blue shaded areas show where flooding could occur from storms in 2035 and 2065.\" width=\"1993\" height=\"909\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1.jpg 1993w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-800x365.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-1020x465.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-160x73.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-768x350.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-1536x701.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-1-1-1920x876.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1993px) 100vw, 1993px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">In a changing climate, the blue-shaded areas depict how a 100-year storm event could temporarily flood a portion of the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard by 2035 and 2065. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of U.S. Navy)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Bay Area climate scientists, like UC Berkeley’s Kristina Hill, have sounded the alarm for years that anthropogenic climate change causing rising seas will push up groundwater levels and mix with contaminants with the possibility of coming in contact with people and the environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nearly two years ago, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979658/poorly-prepared-sf-civil-grand-jury-slams-city-for-not-protecting-residents-from-toxic-contamination\">the San Francisco Civil Grand Jury issued a report alerting the public to the fact that groundwater rise \u003c/a>— a result of seas rising in response to global emissions melting ice caps and expanding oceans — could significantly impact the site in the coming decades. \u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘We feel vindicated that the Navy thinks this is a serious threat that needs to be looked at and also that they understand that it’s imminent.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Sara Miles, a member of the grand jury behind the report","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“We feel vindicated that the Navy thinks this is a serious threat that needs to be looked at and also that they understand that it’s imminent,” said Sara Miles, a member of the grand jury behind the report. “This is a serious issue that needs to be addressed before there’s a land transfer, not to mention any more housing being built in those areas.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Michael Pound, a base realignment and closure environmental coordinator with the Navy, defended the agency’s work to prepare the site for one of San Francisco’s most ambitious development projects in a generation. He said the Navy is taking a proactive approach to how rising seas could affect the Superfund site.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The Navy has not only considered climate change at Hunters Point for many years, but it has already developed some infrastructure at the Shipyard to prepare for future sea-level rise,” he said in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Navy has armored and extended part of the site with a seawall and a landfill cap to protect against a 100-year storm and three feet of sea-level rise. Based on the two sea-level rise projections, the Navy, working with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and state regulatory agencies, will develop timelines for the Navy’s ongoing site-specific evaluations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA oversees the cleanup of Superfund sites and is studying the Navy’s latest review filing, along with California environmental agencies, the San Francisco Bay Regional Water Quality Control Board and the California Department of Toxic Substances Control. Pound said it could be finalized by this summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>San Francisco leaders respond\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Mayor London Breed \u003ca href=\"https://civilgrandjury.sfgov.org/2021_2022/Hunters%20Point%20Response_MYR_081122.pdf\">did not agree with some of the Civil Grand Jury’s findings and recommendations\u003c/a> from 2022. In a statement, her office said the city is working with the Navy “to proactively ensure that all the actors responsible for the clean-up process are using remediation best practices so that the community’s health is, and remains, protected.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>District 10 Supervisor Shamann Walton represents the Hunters Point area. His office declined an interview for this story.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1991764\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1993px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1991764\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1.jpg\" alt=\"Two side by side aerial maps of the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard. Dark blue circles are randomly spread out across the land showcasing where groundwater could be within three feet of the surface in 2035 and 2065.\" width=\"1993\" height=\"909\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1.jpg 1993w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-800x365.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-1020x465.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-160x73.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-768x350.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-1536x701.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-2-1-1920x876.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1993px) 100vw, 1993px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">In a changing climate, the dark blue circles show where groundwater could rise to within 3 feet of the surface at the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard by 2035 and 2065. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of U.S. Navy)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The San Francisco Department of Public Health wrote that the agency is conducting an in-depth analysis of the five-year review, including the section on climate impacts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2021, the Navy found nearly two dozen samples at the site contaminated by Strontium-90, a radioactive isotope that can cause cancer. In September 2018, the agency recovered a radioactive deck marker, more than a decade after the federal government declared the area safe and free of radioactive waste.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1985646/radioactive-object-found-at-san-franciscos-hunters-point-naval-shipyard-raises-new-concerns\">Last December, the Navy said it detected another piece of radioactive material\u003c/a> — a chip of glass smaller than a dime — during routine testing at the former Hunters Point Naval Shipyard in San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Located next to a historically Black neighborhood where more than 35,000 people live, the Tetris-shaped 866-acre shipyard comprises concrete docking bays and abandoned buildings that jut out of San Francisco’s southeast shoreline. In the middle of the last century, the Navy used the site to decontaminate ships after atomic bomb tests, a process that contaminated the soil with radionuclides, heavy metals and petroleum fuels, among other toxic compounds.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>‘The whole area could be flooded’\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Residents, environmental advocates and climate scientists applaud the Navy for studying how climate change could alter the site. However, they said environmental agencies should require the Navy to conduct a more thorough cleanup before any developer builds housing on the old shipyard.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jeff Weitzel was on the civil grand jury that advised the city to look further into how groundwater rise will likely surface contamination at the shipyard. He said he was surprised the Navy looked at time horizons so near into the future and wished the agency would have considered a century ahead because homes built on the site would sit vulnerable for decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1991771\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1991771\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3.jpg\" alt=\"Two side by side aerial maps of the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard. Dark blue circles are randomly spread out across the land showcasing where groundwater could emerge above the land surface in 2035 and 2065.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"952\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-800x381.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-1020x486.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-160x76.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-768x366.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-1536x731.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/240306-HUNTERS-POINT-NAVAL-SHIPYARD-GRAPHIC-MD-3-1920x914.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">In a changing climate, the circled light blue areas depict where groundwater could emerge above ground at the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard by 2035 and 2065. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of U.S. Navy)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“If they look 100 years in the future, it might look two to four times as alarming,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weitzel also notes that the Navy’s study looks separately at flooding from storms, groundwater, and rising sea levels. He said a composite view is needed to understand actual vulnerability clearly. \u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘If they look 100 years in the future, it might look two to four times as alarming.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Jeff Weitzel, civil grand jury member who advised the city","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“The whole area could be flooded; that’s what those maps are showing,” he said. “If we’re talking about building an entire community in that area, that has to be taken into account. There are all these chemicals under this soil, and we don’t know how they might be sneaking out. It’s very alarming.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Dr. Ahimsa Porter Sumchai, who tests the bodies of Bayview-Hunters Point residents to determine if they’ve been exposed to contamination through her Hunters Point Biomonitoring Foundation, the Navy’s findings are “devastating.” She said the city should question whether it is a good idea to build on the site with contamination still in the soil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The Navy did go the extra mile in projecting climate change, and I think that they offered a more sensitive and respectful analysis of the protectiveness of the most dangerously contaminated parcels,” she said. “The bottom line is that the Navy is telling you the shipyard, in its current state, is not fully protective of human health and the environment.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1991775\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1991775\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/034_KQED_BayviewBloodTesting_02252022_qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Dr. Ahimsa Porter Sumchai displays a map of Bayview Hunters Point at her office in Bayview, San Francisco, on Feb. 25, 2022. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Porter Sumchai has screened more than 150 residents and found elevated levels of contaminants like uranium, plutonium and radioactive potassium — some of which she notes can cause cancer in people when exposed to them over a period of time. Her next step is to create a toxic registry of the around 35,000 people who live within a one-mile perimeter of the Superfund site.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of the clustering we are seeing is within the half-mile perimeter of the base,” she said. “The longer people have lived close to the base, the more significant their body burdens are.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>‘Water brings it all together’\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Hill has spent much of the past decade deciphering how human-caused climate change will push up groundwater and come in contact with contamination in soil. Her findings \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1983106/map-more-than-5000-toxic-sites-along-sf-bay-are-threatened-by-rising-groundwater-new-study-finds\">showcase as many as 5,000 toxic sites in the Bay Area alone are at risk of inundation\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In reading the Navy’s review, the Institute for Urban and Regional Development director at UC Berkeley commends the agency for “looking at the issue at all” but said its methods were not granular enough. She said the Navy’s analysis is missing an understanding of how water moves. \u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"label":"More on Climate Change ","tag":"climate-change"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>The Navy assumed that a certain level of sea-level rise would push up groundwater unilaterally “as if it’s carved out of wood or ice” to see where it touches land or comes within three feet of the surface.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m concerned that there might be places where contaminants could flow off their site towards other parcels and certainly towards the bay,” Hill said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Water moves differently based on topography, and because much of the soil on site is fill material, she said it is hard to know how the water will move. She suggests the Navy study each part of the site to decipher how surface water and groundwater will shift as seas rise and storms become more intense.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Water brings it all together,” she said. “I would definitely hesitate about whether this land is ready for housing because they haven’t done a reasonably comprehensive study considering how groundwater moves.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Navy said it plans to evaluate how contaminants could move in water using “more sophisticated groundwater modeling.” \u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘This isn’t an unsolvable problem where there’s already housing built. … It takes one family to suffer impacts, and everyone will regret not doing a better study.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Kristina Hill, climate scientist, UC Berkeley","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>The agency will also look at the latest sea-level rise guidance from California’s Department of Toxic Substances Control. The first study would prioritize the 2035 scenario where “groundwater is first projected to rise above the current land surface.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Hill said the way to get around the troubles with contaminated groundwater is simple: remove all the contaminated soil or “treat them on-site with a fast enough process that it’ll be clean by the time the ocean gets there, or the groundwater gets up to it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This isn’t an unsolvable problem where there’s already housing built,” she said.” So, why not clean it up? It takes one family to suffer impacts, and everyone will regret not doing a better study.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Navy plans to discuss the climate portion of the review at the Hunters Point Shipyard Citizens Advisory Committee meeting on March 25 and is holding a community workshop on April 22. The last day for public comment on the Navy’s review is March 31.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1991758/u-s-navy-acknowledges-rising-toxic-groundwater-threat-at-sf-superfund-site","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_182","science_194","science_4417","science_4414","science_5183","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1991770","label":"science"},"science_1985560":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1985560","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1985560","score":null,"sort":[1701115474000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"faq-annual-climate-negotiations-are-about-to-start-do-they-matter","title":"Annual Climate Negotiations Are About To Start. Do They Matter?","publishDate":1701115474,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Annual Climate Negotiations Are About To Start. Do They Matter? | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>A major annual international climate meeting kicks off later this week in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>World leaders are meeting from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12 to discuss the effects of climate change, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the increasingly pressing question of who will pay for the costs of a hotter planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Attendance at the annual negotiations \u003ca href=\"https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/statistics-on-non-party-stakeholders/statistics-on-participation-and-in-session-engagement\">has ballooned\u003c/a> and hit an \u003ca href=\"https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries#:~:text=COP27%20brought%20together%20more%20than,how%20it%20impacts%20their%20lives.\">estimated 45,000 people\u003c/a> last year. Thousands of climate scientists, mayors, activists, corporate executives, and representatives of major oil companies will also fly to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/01/12/1148810078/the-uae-names-the-head-of-its-main-state-oil-company-to-lead-cop28\">petroleum-dependent host country\u003c/a> to attend hundreds of side events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The meeting comes at the close of the hottest year ever recorded on Earth. Extreme weather is killing people around the world. And while it’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/30/1208241783/its-unlikely-but-not-impossible-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5-celsius-study-fin\">still possible\u003c/a> for humans to avoid catastrophic climate change effects — such as mass extinctions and runaway sea level rise by the end of this century — it is only possible if greenhouse gas pollution falls dramatically and immediately, scientists warn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, a fight is brewing over whether the countries most responsible for causing climate change will \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">follow through on promises\u003c/a> to help the most vulnerable countries \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2021/11/08/1053669015/who-pays-for-climate-change\">foot the bill\u003c/a> for adapting to a hotter world.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s what you need to know about what’s at stake and what to expect.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Why is this meeting happening and what is it supposed to achieve?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>This meeting happens every year and is arranged by the branch of the United Nations that handles global negotiations about climate change. In U.N.-speak, the climate meeting is called the Conference of the Parties, or COP. This is the 28th Conference of the Parties, so it’s called COP28.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the end of the 2015 COP meeting, world leaders signed the landmark Paris Climate Agreement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Paris Agreement requires virtually every country on Earth to pledge how much they’ll cut planet-warming pollution and update those plans every few years. The goal is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to temperatures in the late 1800s, and ideally no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, world leaders are required to review humanity’s collective progress toward that goal. And the situation is not good.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A U.N. \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/11/20/1213207121/this-is-how-far-behind-the-world-is-on-controlling-planet-warming-pollution\">analysis released this month\u003c/a> found that global greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, and the planet is on track for at least 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. And while it’s still possible to stay below 2 degrees of warming — and every tenth of a degree of warming the world avoids will save lives — scientists warn that the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/30/1208241783/its-unlikely-but-not-impossible-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5-celsius-study-fin\">1.5-degree target is slipping away\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>These meetings have been happening for 30 years, and it feels like climate change is only getting worse. Do they really matter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Last year’s COP27 meeting in Egypt ended with a watered-down agreement that left out language calling for a phaseout of all fossil fuels — the biggest driver of global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The summits have become a circus, “with the petrostates as the ringmasters” and everyone else as “the clowns,” Sandrine Dixson-Declève \u003ca href=\"https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/decleve-cop27/\">wrote last year\u003c/a>, as co-president of The Club of Rome, a nonprofit in Switzerland that works on climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem, Dixson-Declève told NPR, is combining international negotiations with a trade show. The number of lobbyists who attend the events has soared, she says, and civil society groups struggle to afford the cost of reserving pavilion space in the COP conference hall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Some are actually given easier access than others because they can pay for it. And that means that those that have pavilions might be able to invite certain governments to come and have a conversation,” Dixson-Declève says. “It may not seem like direct lobbying, but it is potentially indirect lobbying, depending on where the conversation goes. So I think it’s incredibly important that we take into consideration this aspect, which has created a very unfair playing field.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet the COP meetings remain crucial events for activists and poor countries hit hardest by climate-fueled disasters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One of the big values of the U.N. process, actually, is that everybody’s at the table,” says David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative at the World Resources Institute.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The meetings are not “a panacea,” Waskow adds, but they “give us a sense of the direction we need to travel in and also can be a catalyst.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rishikesh Ram Bhandary, assistant director of the Global Economic Governance Initiative at Boston University, says he understands the public’s frustration with the climate talks. Part of it seems to stem from a mismatch between the U.N.’s multilateral process, which ensures every country has a say but often delivers incremental progress, and the urgency people feel as the impacts of climate change get worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That tension has only grown as the United Arab Emirates, a big oil producer, prepares to host this year’s meeting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given its knowledge of oil and gas, the UAE has a chance to chart a practical but ambitious path to move the world off of fossil fuels, Dixson-Declève says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That would be the perfect scenario,” she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the world seems to be moving in the opposite direction. António Guterres, the U.N. secretary-general, \u003ca href=\"https://productiongap.org/unsg-message-2023/\">said earlier in November\u003c/a> that governments “are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/co2-cop28-20231120/?initialWidth=953&childId=responsive-embed-co2-cop28-20231120&parentTitle=Everything%20you%20need%20to%20know%20about%20the%20COP28%20climate%20change%20meeting%20%3A%20NPR&parentUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.npr.org%2F2023%2F11%2F27%2F1209676382%2Fcop28-climate-change-conference-faq\" width=\"1000\" height=\"620\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What will be a contentious topic at these talks?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>One of the biggest debates will be the overcompensation that wealthier countries could pay to nations hardest hit by climate change. It’s known as “loss and damage.” Lower-income countries bear the brunt of climate impacts, such as floods, fires and drought that cause billions of dollars in destruction. But they have contributed little to the planetary warming driving those disasters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Countries like the U.S. and those in Europe built their wealth through fossil fuel use and are responsible for most of the heat-trapping emissions in the atmosphere today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For years, developing nations have argued that they’re owed for the damage caused by climate change. Loss and damage funding could be used to prepare for future impacts, like building infrastructure or \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">relocating communities\u003c/a>, as well as compensating them for \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">irreplaceable cultural resources\u003c/a> that have been lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the 2022 climate summit, countries \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/20/1137349916/did-the-world-make-progress-on-climate-change-heres-what-was-decided-at-global-t\">made a historic agreement\u003c/a> to create a fund, especially for that purpose. Since then, negotiations have been bumpy. Countries have argued about which nations should pay into the fund, which should be eligible to receive funding, and where the fund is housed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now, \u003ca href=\"https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-cop28-loss-damage-fund-abu-dhabi-bd4969f1b23254a7311d1ad4f4289d9b\">the plan is\u003c/a> for the World Bank to house the “loss and damage” fund temporarily. But global leaders would need to sign off on that plan at the COP28 talks. And some developing countries are concerned about the plan because it only urges, not requires, richer countries to contribute funding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1985562\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1985562\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Rescuers remove mud and debris as they search for people feared trapped after a landslide near a temple on the outskirts of Shimla, Himachal Pradesh state, Aug. 14, 2023.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rescuers search for people after a landslide in India in August that was caused by torrential rains. Climate-driven disasters are particularly destructive in places that are not wealthy, and such disasters can set off cycles of destruction, debt and further vulnerability. \u003ccite>(Pradeep Kumar/AP)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Why is money such a big topic at the meeting?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Industrialized countries have pledged $100 billion annually to developing countries to help them adapt to global warming and move away from fossil fuels, but studies suggest much more money is needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The needs for climate finance are much, much higher — more on the order of a trillion dollars per year,” says Laura Kuhl, assistant professor of public policy and international affairs at Northeastern University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A recent assessment from the \u003ca href=\"https://www.oecd.org/environment/growth-accelerated-in-the-climate-finance-provided-and-mobilised-in-2021-but-developed-countries-remain-short.htm\">Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development\u003c/a> says developing countries will need at least $2.4 trillion each year by 2026.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This money — called “climate finance” — can help developing countries switch from planet-heating fossil fuels to clean energy. It also includes money for adapting to climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stacy-ann Robinson, an associate professor of environmental studies at Colby College, says you can’t talk about climate finance without talking about climate justice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Countries in the Global South,” Robinson says, “are saying, ‘Listen, we contributed the least to historical greenhouse gas emissions, but based on a number of factors — environmental and otherwise — we will be impacted the most.'”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s why back in 2009 at the climate conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, industrialized nations announced that \u003cem>they\u003c/em> would take the lead on climate finance. They pledged that by 2020, they would give $100 billion each year toward funding climate adaptation and reducing fossil fuel use in the Global South.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They missed the 2020 goal. And although industrialized nations \u003ca href=\"https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/__;!!Iwwt!TcowzyOv2FKzOEQ2b2ribe2pUfpddVlARAVq0htz59aiMKvGjGYB7r4G9AdEE25TLeLgv9DyTp0S-yui5pg%24\">may have finally reached the $100 billion\u003c/a> mark in 2022, in Dubai, the discussions will center on how to get closer to the trillion dollar range. This will involve engaging countries, institutions like the World Bank and the IMF, and the private sector.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>How do wars in the Middle East and Ukraine affect climate talks this year?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>They won’t help. Climate diplomacy is already contentious. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are further complicating, if not worsening, diplomatic relations among some of the world’s largest historic contributors to climate change — namely, the United States, Russia and China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>U.N. Secretary-General Guterres acknowledged the problem in recent remarks, saying that it’s clear that world leaders face “distractions” from addressing climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has trashed its relations with the U.S. and the European Union, which have been providing Ukraine with billions of dollars in aid and weaponry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At last year’s climate talks, representatives from developing countries raised questions about why rich countries like the U.S. have been quick to deliver weapons while slow-walking funds for climate adaptation and clean energy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those concerns are likely to come up again in Dubai, as the U.S. is now delivering billions of dollars more to Israel.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Israel’s continued bombardment of the Gaza Strip is also raising the ire of other countries in the Middle East and Global South, and a broader regional conflict could cause chaos in the world’s energy markets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All of this makes it more difficult for world leaders to maintain consensus and focus on addressing the global issue of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">\u003cem>Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=FAQ%3A+Annual+climate+negotiations+are+about+to+start.+Do+they+matter%3F&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/em>\u003c/div>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"World leaders, climate experts and oil company executives will converge in Dubai later this week to talk about climate change at the United Nations COP28 meeting. Here's what you need to know.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845817,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["https://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/co2-cop28-20231120/"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":46,"wordCount":1810},"headData":{"title":"Annual Climate Negotiations Are About To Start. Do They Matter? | KQED","description":"World leaders, climate experts and oil company executives will converge in Dubai later this week to talk about climate change at the United Nations COP28 meeting. Here's what you need to know.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Annual Climate Negotiations Are About To Start. Do They Matter?","datePublished":"2023-11-27T20:04:34.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:16:57.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"NPR","sticky":false,"nprImageCredit":"Frank Augstein","nprByline":"\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/1134404086/michael-copley\">Michael Copley\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/1119646476/julia-simon\">Julia Simon\u003c/a>, \u003cbr>\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/348779465/nathan-rott\">Nathan Rott\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/803934365/lauren-sommer\">Lauren Sommer\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/384067907/rebecca-hersher\">Rebecca Hersher\u003c/a>","nprImageAgency":"AP","nprStoryId":"1209676382","nprApiLink":"http://api.npr.org/query?id=1209676382&apiKey=MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004","nprHtmlLink":"https://www.npr.org/2023/11/27/1209676382/cop28-climate-change-conference-faq?ft=nprml&f=1209676382","nprRetrievedStory":"1","nprPubDate":"Mon, 27 Nov 2023 08:14:00 -0500","nprStoryDate":"Mon, 27 Nov 2023 05:00:52 -0500","nprLastModifiedDate":"Mon, 27 Nov 2023 08:14:11 -0500","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","showOnAuthorArchivePages":"No","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1985560/faq-annual-climate-negotiations-are-about-to-start-do-they-matter","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>A major annual international climate meeting kicks off later this week in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>World leaders are meeting from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12 to discuss the effects of climate change, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the increasingly pressing question of who will pay for the costs of a hotter planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Attendance at the annual negotiations \u003ca href=\"https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/statistics-on-non-party-stakeholders/statistics-on-participation-and-in-session-engagement\">has ballooned\u003c/a> and hit an \u003ca href=\"https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries#:~:text=COP27%20brought%20together%20more%20than,how%20it%20impacts%20their%20lives.\">estimated 45,000 people\u003c/a> last year. Thousands of climate scientists, mayors, activists, corporate executives, and representatives of major oil companies will also fly to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/01/12/1148810078/the-uae-names-the-head-of-its-main-state-oil-company-to-lead-cop28\">petroleum-dependent host country\u003c/a> to attend hundreds of side events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The meeting comes at the close of the hottest year ever recorded on Earth. Extreme weather is killing people around the world. And while it’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/30/1208241783/its-unlikely-but-not-impossible-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5-celsius-study-fin\">still possible\u003c/a> for humans to avoid catastrophic climate change effects — such as mass extinctions and runaway sea level rise by the end of this century — it is only possible if greenhouse gas pollution falls dramatically and immediately, scientists warn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, a fight is brewing over whether the countries most responsible for causing climate change will \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">follow through on promises\u003c/a> to help the most vulnerable countries \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2021/11/08/1053669015/who-pays-for-climate-change\">foot the bill\u003c/a> for adapting to a hotter world.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s what you need to know about what’s at stake and what to expect.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Why is this meeting happening and what is it supposed to achieve?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>This meeting happens every year and is arranged by the branch of the United Nations that handles global negotiations about climate change. In U.N.-speak, the climate meeting is called the Conference of the Parties, or COP. This is the 28th Conference of the Parties, so it’s called COP28.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the end of the 2015 COP meeting, world leaders signed the landmark Paris Climate Agreement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Paris Agreement requires virtually every country on Earth to pledge how much they’ll cut planet-warming pollution and update those plans every few years. The goal is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to temperatures in the late 1800s, and ideally no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, world leaders are required to review humanity’s collective progress toward that goal. And the situation is not good.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A U.N. \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/11/20/1213207121/this-is-how-far-behind-the-world-is-on-controlling-planet-warming-pollution\">analysis released this month\u003c/a> found that global greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, and the planet is on track for at least 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. And while it’s still possible to stay below 2 degrees of warming — and every tenth of a degree of warming the world avoids will save lives — scientists warn that the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/30/1208241783/its-unlikely-but-not-impossible-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5-celsius-study-fin\">1.5-degree target is slipping away\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>These meetings have been happening for 30 years, and it feels like climate change is only getting worse. Do they really matter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Last year’s COP27 meeting in Egypt ended with a watered-down agreement that left out language calling for a phaseout of all fossil fuels — the biggest driver of global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The summits have become a circus, “with the petrostates as the ringmasters” and everyone else as “the clowns,” Sandrine Dixson-Declève \u003ca href=\"https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/decleve-cop27/\">wrote last year\u003c/a>, as co-president of The Club of Rome, a nonprofit in Switzerland that works on climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem, Dixson-Declève told NPR, is combining international negotiations with a trade show. The number of lobbyists who attend the events has soared, she says, and civil society groups struggle to afford the cost of reserving pavilion space in the COP conference hall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Some are actually given easier access than others because they can pay for it. And that means that those that have pavilions might be able to invite certain governments to come and have a conversation,” Dixson-Declève says. “It may not seem like direct lobbying, but it is potentially indirect lobbying, depending on where the conversation goes. So I think it’s incredibly important that we take into consideration this aspect, which has created a very unfair playing field.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet the COP meetings remain crucial events for activists and poor countries hit hardest by climate-fueled disasters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One of the big values of the U.N. process, actually, is that everybody’s at the table,” says David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative at the World Resources Institute.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The meetings are not “a panacea,” Waskow adds, but they “give us a sense of the direction we need to travel in and also can be a catalyst.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rishikesh Ram Bhandary, assistant director of the Global Economic Governance Initiative at Boston University, says he understands the public’s frustration with the climate talks. Part of it seems to stem from a mismatch between the U.N.’s multilateral process, which ensures every country has a say but often delivers incremental progress, and the urgency people feel as the impacts of climate change get worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That tension has only grown as the United Arab Emirates, a big oil producer, prepares to host this year’s meeting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given its knowledge of oil and gas, the UAE has a chance to chart a practical but ambitious path to move the world off of fossil fuels, Dixson-Declève says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That would be the perfect scenario,” she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the world seems to be moving in the opposite direction. António Guterres, the U.N. secretary-general, \u003ca href=\"https://productiongap.org/unsg-message-2023/\">said earlier in November\u003c/a> that governments “are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/co2-cop28-20231120/?initialWidth=953&childId=responsive-embed-co2-cop28-20231120&parentTitle=Everything%20you%20need%20to%20know%20about%20the%20COP28%20climate%20change%20meeting%20%3A%20NPR&parentUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.npr.org%2F2023%2F11%2F27%2F1209676382%2Fcop28-climate-change-conference-faq\" width=\"1000\" height=\"620\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What will be a contentious topic at these talks?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>One of the biggest debates will be the overcompensation that wealthier countries could pay to nations hardest hit by climate change. It’s known as “loss and damage.” Lower-income countries bear the brunt of climate impacts, such as floods, fires and drought that cause billions of dollars in destruction. But they have contributed little to the planetary warming driving those disasters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Countries like the U.S. and those in Europe built their wealth through fossil fuel use and are responsible for most of the heat-trapping emissions in the atmosphere today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For years, developing nations have argued that they’re owed for the damage caused by climate change. Loss and damage funding could be used to prepare for future impacts, like building infrastructure or \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">relocating communities\u003c/a>, as well as compensating them for \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">irreplaceable cultural resources\u003c/a> that have been lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the 2022 climate summit, countries \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/20/1137349916/did-the-world-make-progress-on-climate-change-heres-what-was-decided-at-global-t\">made a historic agreement\u003c/a> to create a fund, especially for that purpose. Since then, negotiations have been bumpy. Countries have argued about which nations should pay into the fund, which should be eligible to receive funding, and where the fund is housed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now, \u003ca href=\"https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-cop28-loss-damage-fund-abu-dhabi-bd4969f1b23254a7311d1ad4f4289d9b\">the plan is\u003c/a> for the World Bank to house the “loss and damage” fund temporarily. But global leaders would need to sign off on that plan at the COP28 talks. And some developing countries are concerned about the plan because it only urges, not requires, richer countries to contribute funding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1985562\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1985562\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Rescuers remove mud and debris as they search for people feared trapped after a landslide near a temple on the outskirts of Shimla, Himachal Pradesh state, Aug. 14, 2023.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rescuers search for people after a landslide in India in August that was caused by torrential rains. Climate-driven disasters are particularly destructive in places that are not wealthy, and such disasters can set off cycles of destruction, debt and further vulnerability. \u003ccite>(Pradeep Kumar/AP)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Why is money such a big topic at the meeting?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Industrialized countries have pledged $100 billion annually to developing countries to help them adapt to global warming and move away from fossil fuels, but studies suggest much more money is needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The needs for climate finance are much, much higher — more on the order of a trillion dollars per year,” says Laura Kuhl, assistant professor of public policy and international affairs at Northeastern University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A recent assessment from the \u003ca href=\"https://www.oecd.org/environment/growth-accelerated-in-the-climate-finance-provided-and-mobilised-in-2021-but-developed-countries-remain-short.htm\">Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development\u003c/a> says developing countries will need at least $2.4 trillion each year by 2026.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This money — called “climate finance” — can help developing countries switch from planet-heating fossil fuels to clean energy. It also includes money for adapting to climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stacy-ann Robinson, an associate professor of environmental studies at Colby College, says you can’t talk about climate finance without talking about climate justice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Countries in the Global South,” Robinson says, “are saying, ‘Listen, we contributed the least to historical greenhouse gas emissions, but based on a number of factors — environmental and otherwise — we will be impacted the most.'”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s why back in 2009 at the climate conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, industrialized nations announced that \u003cem>they\u003c/em> would take the lead on climate finance. They pledged that by 2020, they would give $100 billion each year toward funding climate adaptation and reducing fossil fuel use in the Global South.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They missed the 2020 goal. And although industrialized nations \u003ca href=\"https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/__;!!Iwwt!TcowzyOv2FKzOEQ2b2ribe2pUfpddVlARAVq0htz59aiMKvGjGYB7r4G9AdEE25TLeLgv9DyTp0S-yui5pg%24\">may have finally reached the $100 billion\u003c/a> mark in 2022, in Dubai, the discussions will center on how to get closer to the trillion dollar range. This will involve engaging countries, institutions like the World Bank and the IMF, and the private sector.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>How do wars in the Middle East and Ukraine affect climate talks this year?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>They won’t help. Climate diplomacy is already contentious. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are further complicating, if not worsening, diplomatic relations among some of the world’s largest historic contributors to climate change — namely, the United States, Russia and China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>U.N. Secretary-General Guterres acknowledged the problem in recent remarks, saying that it’s clear that world leaders face “distractions” from addressing climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has trashed its relations with the U.S. and the European Union, which have been providing Ukraine with billions of dollars in aid and weaponry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At last year’s climate talks, representatives from developing countries raised questions about why rich countries like the U.S. have been quick to deliver weapons while slow-walking funds for climate adaptation and clean energy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those concerns are likely to come up again in Dubai, as the U.S. is now delivering billions of dollars more to Israel.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Israel’s continued bombardment of the Gaza Strip is also raising the ire of other countries in the Middle East and Global South, and a broader regional conflict could cause chaos in the world’s energy markets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All of this makes it more difficult for world leaders to maintain consensus and focus on addressing the global issue of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">\u003cem>Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=FAQ%3A+Annual+climate+negotiations+are+about+to+start.+Do+they+matter%3F&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/em>\u003c/div>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1985560/faq-annual-climate-negotiations-are-about-to-start-do-they-matter","authors":["byline_science_1985560"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_182","science_194","science_572","science_134","science_4417","science_4414","science_556","science_843","science_206","science_201","science_365"],"featImg":"science_1985561","label":"source_science_1985560"},"science_1984927":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1984927","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1984927","score":null,"sort":[1698267636000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"what-does-unavoidable-west-antarctic-ice-shelf-melt-mean-for-the-bay-area","title":"What Does 'Unavoidable' West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Mean for the Bay Area?","publishDate":1698267636,"format":"standard","headTitle":"What Does ‘Unavoidable’ West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Mean for the Bay Area? | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>No matter how fast the world reduces carbon emissions, some amount of rapid ice melt from human-caused climate change in West Antarctica is inevitable by the end of the century, which could have enormous ramifications for \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982800/new-map-exposes-critical-gaps-in-bay-areas-readiness-for-sea-level-rise\">coastal regions like San Francisco Bay\u003c/a>, according to \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x#Sec6\">a new study published by researchers at the British Antarctic Survey\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It looks like we’ve lost control of melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,” said study lead author Dr. Kaitlin Naughten \u003ca href=\"https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/increased-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-melting-unavoidable/\">in an online statement. \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists have known that as oceans absorb heat, their temperature rises, and water expands, contributing to rising sea levels. But this study is one of the first to model exactly how ocean warming might cause the Antarctic ice shelves to melt, releasing much more water into the ocean and pushing them up further.\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">[pullquote align='right' citation='Mark Lubell, UC Davis']‘We can’t predict the future perfectly, but this puts more weight into the likelihood of more severe rapid sea-level rise, which means that we need to think more seriously about adaptation in the Bay Area.’[/pullquote]\u003c/span>If the West Antarctic ice sheet melts completely — which would only happen in the direst scenario — oceans around the globe could push up by more than 16 feet. The scientists found that over the 21st century, ocean warming will likely occur at triple the historical rate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gasses now has limited power to prevent ocean warming,” the authors noted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The seas on the West Coast of California have risen by 8 inches since the 1880s.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Previous research has shown this extreme melting would take place over centuries. The new study found melting — in all plausible climate scenarios — is likely to be more severe and will continue this century, even if significant emissions cuts come in the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, the authors note they “cannot quantify the sea-level rise contribution implied by our findings.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Davis professor Mark Lubell said the study is like “a time machine” for the impacts of sea-level rise, even if it doesn’t have granular estimates for exactly how much sea-level rise the Bay Area can expect in the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can’t predict the future perfectly, but this puts more weight into the likelihood of more severe rapid sea-level rise, which means that we need to think more seriously about adaptation in the Bay Area,” said Lubell, who studies governance and sea-level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When Violet Wulf-Saena read the news about the study, she wasn’t surprised. She directs Climate Resilient Communities, advocating for communities facing climate vulnerabilities in flood-prone areas like East Palo Alto.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She said the study shows it’s imperative to finish \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1973805/climate-solutions-in-east-palo-alto\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">existing sea-level rise projects\u003c/a> early, not decades into the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Communities want to see things happening now because even though the science and the data are showing us that sea-level rise will impact us, communities are already impacted,” she said, referring to flooding from recent storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The findings were not shocking for UC Berkeley’s Kristina Hill, who \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life\">works on California’s updated sea level guidance.\u003c/a> Still, they should be considered a warning of what’s to come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s not just the West Antarctic ice shelves that are melting. Ice in polar regions around the globe is thawing, and Hill said the findings “confirm” the state’s recent guidance of preparing for \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/_media_library/2022/08/SLR-Action-Plan-2022-508.pdf\">1 foot of sea-level rise by 2050 and 3.5 feet of sea-level rise by 2100\u003c/a>. And she added that the Bay Area needs to prepare for potentially even more water, two to three feet over the next three decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not like it’s all going to start in 2050; we’re going to see more flooding along the way from high groundwater and sea level events,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hill is concerned that rising groundwater — shallow surface water pushed up by rising seas — will come in contact with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1983106/map-more-than-5000-toxic-sites-along-sf-bay-are-threatened-by-rising-groundwater-new-study-finds\">buried contaminants around the lip of the bay.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to be increasingly waking up to how rising groundwater could cause health risks for people in urban areas,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mark Stacey, an environmental engineer at UC Berkeley, said while the findings are alarming, people should treat them cautiously.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t think it necessarily implies more or less sea-level rise than was anticipated, but it makes clear that for all but the highest of high emissions scenarios, sea-level rise will proceed pretty similarly through the end of the century,” he said in an email.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For state agencies, like the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981687/the-bay-could-soon-have-its-first-region-wide-sea-level-rise-plan-but-no-one-to-enforce-it\">preparing a regional sea-level rise plan\u003c/a>, the study “amplifies a sense of urgency” behind completing their project as soon as possible, said Dana Brechwald, assistant planning director for climate adaptation with the group.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This study can light a fire under decision makers to maybe do something about it when they would have formerly waited,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The new study puts more weight on rapid sea-level rise for the Bay Area. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845852,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":23,"wordCount":877},"headData":{"title":"What Does 'Unavoidable' West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Mean for the Bay Area? | KQED","description":"The new study puts more weight on rapid sea-level rise for the Bay Area. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"What Does 'Unavoidable' West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Mean for the Bay Area?","datePublished":"2023-10-25T21:00:36.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:17:32.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Sea-Level Rise","sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1984927/what-does-unavoidable-west-antarctic-ice-shelf-melt-mean-for-the-bay-area","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>No matter how fast the world reduces carbon emissions, some amount of rapid ice melt from human-caused climate change in West Antarctica is inevitable by the end of the century, which could have enormous ramifications for \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982800/new-map-exposes-critical-gaps-in-bay-areas-readiness-for-sea-level-rise\">coastal regions like San Francisco Bay\u003c/a>, according to \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x#Sec6\">a new study published by researchers at the British Antarctic Survey\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It looks like we’ve lost control of melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,” said study lead author Dr. Kaitlin Naughten \u003ca href=\"https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/increased-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-melting-unavoidable/\">in an online statement. \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists have known that as oceans absorb heat, their temperature rises, and water expands, contributing to rising sea levels. But this study is one of the first to model exactly how ocean warming might cause the Antarctic ice shelves to melt, releasing much more water into the ocean and pushing them up further.\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘We can’t predict the future perfectly, but this puts more weight into the likelihood of more severe rapid sea-level rise, which means that we need to think more seriously about adaptation in the Bay Area.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"align":"right","citation":"Mark Lubell, UC Davis","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/span>If the West Antarctic ice sheet melts completely — which would only happen in the direst scenario — oceans around the globe could push up by more than 16 feet. The scientists found that over the 21st century, ocean warming will likely occur at triple the historical rate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gasses now has limited power to prevent ocean warming,” the authors noted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The seas on the West Coast of California have risen by 8 inches since the 1880s.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Previous research has shown this extreme melting would take place over centuries. The new study found melting — in all plausible climate scenarios — is likely to be more severe and will continue this century, even if significant emissions cuts come in the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, the authors note they “cannot quantify the sea-level rise contribution implied by our findings.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Davis professor Mark Lubell said the study is like “a time machine” for the impacts of sea-level rise, even if it doesn’t have granular estimates for exactly how much sea-level rise the Bay Area can expect in the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can’t predict the future perfectly, but this puts more weight into the likelihood of more severe rapid sea-level rise, which means that we need to think more seriously about adaptation in the Bay Area,” said Lubell, who studies governance and sea-level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When Violet Wulf-Saena read the news about the study, she wasn’t surprised. She directs Climate Resilient Communities, advocating for communities facing climate vulnerabilities in flood-prone areas like East Palo Alto.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She said the study shows it’s imperative to finish \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1973805/climate-solutions-in-east-palo-alto\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">existing sea-level rise projects\u003c/a> early, not decades into the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Communities want to see things happening now because even though the science and the data are showing us that sea-level rise will impact us, communities are already impacted,” she said, referring to flooding from recent storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The findings were not shocking for UC Berkeley’s Kristina Hill, who \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life\">works on California’s updated sea level guidance.\u003c/a> Still, they should be considered a warning of what’s to come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s not just the West Antarctic ice shelves that are melting. Ice in polar regions around the globe is thawing, and Hill said the findings “confirm” the state’s recent guidance of preparing for \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/_media_library/2022/08/SLR-Action-Plan-2022-508.pdf\">1 foot of sea-level rise by 2050 and 3.5 feet of sea-level rise by 2100\u003c/a>. And she added that the Bay Area needs to prepare for potentially even more water, two to three feet over the next three decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not like it’s all going to start in 2050; we’re going to see more flooding along the way from high groundwater and sea level events,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hill is concerned that rising groundwater — shallow surface water pushed up by rising seas — will come in contact with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1983106/map-more-than-5000-toxic-sites-along-sf-bay-are-threatened-by-rising-groundwater-new-study-finds\">buried contaminants around the lip of the bay.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to be increasingly waking up to how rising groundwater could cause health risks for people in urban areas,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mark Stacey, an environmental engineer at UC Berkeley, said while the findings are alarming, people should treat them cautiously.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t think it necessarily implies more or less sea-level rise than was anticipated, but it makes clear that for all but the highest of high emissions scenarios, sea-level rise will proceed pretty similarly through the end of the century,” he said in an email.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For state agencies, like the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981687/the-bay-could-soon-have-its-first-region-wide-sea-level-rise-plan-but-no-one-to-enforce-it\">preparing a regional sea-level rise plan\u003c/a>, the study “amplifies a sense of urgency” behind completing their project as soon as possible, said Dana Brechwald, assistant planning director for climate adaptation with the group.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This study can light a fire under decision makers to maybe do something about it when they would have formerly waited,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1984927/what-does-unavoidable-west-antarctic-ice-shelf-melt-mean-for-the-bay-area","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_31","science_32","science_35","science_40","science_2873","science_4450","science_98"],"tags":["science_856","science_182","science_4414","science_556","science_324","science_5183","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1984928","label":"source_science_1984927"},"science_1984830":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1984830","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1984830","score":null,"sort":[1697667577000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"california-mandates-coastal-cities-plan-for-future-sea-level-rise","title":"California Mandates Coastal Cities Plan for Future Sea-Level Rise","publishDate":1697667577,"format":"standard","headTitle":"California Mandates Coastal Cities Plan for Future Sea-Level Rise | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>For the first time in California history, all coastal cities, including those in the Bay Area, must plan for \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life\">sea-level rise, a looming climate impact yet to be fully experienced\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new law — \u003ca href=\"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB272\">SB\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB272\"> 272\u003c/a> — requires big cities like San Francisco and small towns like Strawberry along Richardson Bay to develop strategies and recommend projects to address future sea-level rise by 2034. While seas have risen only about 8 inches since the 1880s, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life#:~:text=The%20draft%20report%2C%20set%20to,regardless%20of%20future%20emissions%20reductions.\">ocean and the bay could rise by about a foot by midcentury\u003c/a> — thanks mainly to human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sen. John Laird (D-Santa Cruz) authored the bill recently signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom. The governor vetoed a similar bill last fall, noting budget constraints. Laird said his team worked with Newsom’s office to ensure there are dollars in the budget for local planning on sea-level rise. California’s final budget included \u003ca href=\"https://ebudget.ca.gov/2023-24/pdf/Enacted/BudgetSummary/ClimateChange.pdf\">$1.1 billion in investments for coastal resilience programs\u003c/a> over multiple years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There are lots of discussions, and the hope is we have these discussions before it’s a crisis and before these big extreme events happen,” Laird said, referring to significant flooding from storms that sea-level rise could exacerbate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The storms that we just had [last winter] changed the equation for people who didn’t even realize they had some of the coming impacts,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The law requires local governments to create sea-level rise plans based on the best available science, conduct vulnerability assessments — including for at-risk communities — determine adaptation strategies and sketch out a list of recommended projects with timelines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=\"science_1982800,science_1982875,news_11961003\" label=\"Related Stories\"]Laird said the new law stops short of declaring exactly where state funding will come from for sea-level rise plans and adaptation projects. But the state will prioritize funding for cities and counties with plans in place, Laird said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I expect that there will be pushback in certain places because some people are going to have to come to grips with the reality of the challenge to their homes or businesses,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982816\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1020px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/gettyimages-1315066305-1020x573/\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982816 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573-1.jpg\" alt=\"A shot of the coastline in California with houses and the bay.\" width=\"1020\" height=\"573\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573-1.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573-1-800x449.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573-1-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573-1-768x431.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sea levels along coastlines in the U.S. will rise up to 1 foot by the year 2050, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). \u003ccite>(Jason Doiy/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Walking slowly and with too small a stick \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The law does not lay out any punishment for cities that don’t comply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation=\"Larry Goldzband, executive director, BCDC\"]‘There’s going to be huge amounts of social and economic dislocation due to flooding if we don’t adapt.’[/pullquote]While the bill is an excellent starting point for sea-level rise planning, John Gioia, a supervisor from Contra Costa County, said the law should have come with more of a stick for local governments that don’t comply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A bill like this gets the ball rolling,” he said. “We’ll soon realize it’s not fast enough.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He holds fast to his perspective that the region needs a stronger, central authority on sea-level rise to match the dire consequences of not adequately preparing for rising seas. Currently, the Bay Area is governed by a patchwork quilt of local and state authorities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Direct authority gets things done faster and more effectively than voluntary action,” he said. “Given the urgency of this issue in the Bay Area and the speed of development, we need to act now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Len Materman, CEO of OneShoreline, San Mateo County’s flood and sea-level rise resiliency district, applauds the bill’s passing but wishes the law went further to include specific requirements for places like airports, hospitals and harbors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“No local government can address this or most other climate threats, so resilience activities should align protection across multiple jurisdictions,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state expects local governments to cooperate. Coastal regulators with the California Coastal Commission and the Bay Conservation Development Commission, or BCDC, have the power to approve or deny plans for adaptation projects and development along the shoreline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Sea level is already rising on our shorelines and more is already ‘baked in,’” said Zachary Wasserman, chair of BCDC, in a letter of support for the bill. “The only questions are how fast the oceans will rise and whether or not California will be prepared.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agency is creating \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981687/the-bay-could-soon-have-its-first-region-wide-sea-level-rise-plan-but-no-one-to-enforce-it\">a regional sea-level rise plan\u003c/a>, with a first draft supposedly available by the end of 2024. Larry Goldzband, executive director of BCDC, said the plan is vital because it will cost at least \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982800/new-map-exposes-critical-gaps-in-bay-areas-readiness-for-sea-level-rise\">$110 billion for the Bay Area\u003c/a> to adapt to mid-century flooding caused by rising sea levels. But if leaders fail to act, the price could be much higher at around $230 billion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Local governments have until January 2034 to develop sea-level rise plans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Everybody now sees that deadline ten years from now and recognizes that this is real,” Goldzband said. “There’s going to be huge amounts of social and economic dislocation due to flooding if we don’t adapt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>His team plans to follow up with all local governments around the region to ensure they are on board so the Bay Area of tomorrow isn’t overwhelmed by water. The agency is holding community and government meetings across the area to get input on the plan, said Dana Brechwald, assistant planning director for climate adaptation with BCDC.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new law comes at a perfect time, she said, as the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life\">updated sea-level rise standards\u003c/a> could come out in the next few months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a trifecta of initiatives we’ve never seen before,” she said. “I think it’s going to accelerate action throughout the state. We’re excited. This is what we live for.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"California has a new law requiring cities to plan for rising sea levels. While seas have risen only about 8 inches since the 1880s, the ocean and the bay could rise by about a foot by midcentury.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845861,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":26,"wordCount":1012},"headData":{"title":"California Mandates Coastal Cities Plan for Future Sea-Level Rise | KQED","description":"California has a new law requiring cities to plan for rising sea levels. While seas have risen only about 8 inches since the 1880s, the ocean and the bay could rise by about a foot by midcentury.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"California Mandates Coastal Cities Plan for Future Sea-Level Rise","datePublished":"2023-10-18T22:19:37.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:17:41.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"subhead":"For the first time in California history, all coastal cities, including those in the Bay Area, must plan for sea-level rise.","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1984830/california-mandates-coastal-cities-plan-for-future-sea-level-rise","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>For the first time in California history, all coastal cities, including those in the Bay Area, must plan for \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life\">sea-level rise, a looming climate impact yet to be fully experienced\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new law — \u003ca href=\"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB272\">SB\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB272\"> 272\u003c/a> — requires big cities like San Francisco and small towns like Strawberry along Richardson Bay to develop strategies and recommend projects to address future sea-level rise by 2034. While seas have risen only about 8 inches since the 1880s, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life#:~:text=The%20draft%20report%2C%20set%20to,regardless%20of%20future%20emissions%20reductions.\">ocean and the bay could rise by about a foot by midcentury\u003c/a> — thanks mainly to human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sen. John Laird (D-Santa Cruz) authored the bill recently signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom. The governor vetoed a similar bill last fall, noting budget constraints. Laird said his team worked with Newsom’s office to ensure there are dollars in the budget for local planning on sea-level rise. California’s final budget included \u003ca href=\"https://ebudget.ca.gov/2023-24/pdf/Enacted/BudgetSummary/ClimateChange.pdf\">$1.1 billion in investments for coastal resilience programs\u003c/a> over multiple years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There are lots of discussions, and the hope is we have these discussions before it’s a crisis and before these big extreme events happen,” Laird said, referring to significant flooding from storms that sea-level rise could exacerbate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The storms that we just had [last winter] changed the equation for people who didn’t even realize they had some of the coming impacts,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The law requires local governments to create sea-level rise plans based on the best available science, conduct vulnerability assessments — including for at-risk communities — determine adaptation strategies and sketch out a list of recommended projects with timelines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"science_1982800,science_1982875,news_11961003","label":"Related Stories "},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Laird said the new law stops short of declaring exactly where state funding will come from for sea-level rise plans and adaptation projects. But the state will prioritize funding for cities and counties with plans in place, Laird said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I expect that there will be pushback in certain places because some people are going to have to come to grips with the reality of the challenge to their homes or businesses,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982816\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1020px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/gettyimages-1315066305-1020x573/\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982816 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573-1.jpg\" alt=\"A shot of the coastline in California with houses and the bay.\" width=\"1020\" height=\"573\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573-1.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573-1-800x449.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573-1-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1315066305-1020x573-1-768x431.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sea levels along coastlines in the U.S. will rise up to 1 foot by the year 2050, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). \u003ccite>(Jason Doiy/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Walking slowly and with too small a stick \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The law does not lay out any punishment for cities that don’t comply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘There’s going to be huge amounts of social and economic dislocation due to flooding if we don’t adapt.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Larry Goldzband, executive director, BCDC","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>While the bill is an excellent starting point for sea-level rise planning, John Gioia, a supervisor from Contra Costa County, said the law should have come with more of a stick for local governments that don’t comply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A bill like this gets the ball rolling,” he said. “We’ll soon realize it’s not fast enough.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He holds fast to his perspective that the region needs a stronger, central authority on sea-level rise to match the dire consequences of not adequately preparing for rising seas. Currently, the Bay Area is governed by a patchwork quilt of local and state authorities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Direct authority gets things done faster and more effectively than voluntary action,” he said. “Given the urgency of this issue in the Bay Area and the speed of development, we need to act now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Len Materman, CEO of OneShoreline, San Mateo County’s flood and sea-level rise resiliency district, applauds the bill’s passing but wishes the law went further to include specific requirements for places like airports, hospitals and harbors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“No local government can address this or most other climate threats, so resilience activities should align protection across multiple jurisdictions,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state expects local governments to cooperate. Coastal regulators with the California Coastal Commission and the Bay Conservation Development Commission, or BCDC, have the power to approve or deny plans for adaptation projects and development along the shoreline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Sea level is already rising on our shorelines and more is already ‘baked in,’” said Zachary Wasserman, chair of BCDC, in a letter of support for the bill. “The only questions are how fast the oceans will rise and whether or not California will be prepared.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agency is creating \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981687/the-bay-could-soon-have-its-first-region-wide-sea-level-rise-plan-but-no-one-to-enforce-it\">a regional sea-level rise plan\u003c/a>, with a first draft supposedly available by the end of 2024. Larry Goldzband, executive director of BCDC, said the plan is vital because it will cost at least \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982800/new-map-exposes-critical-gaps-in-bay-areas-readiness-for-sea-level-rise\">$110 billion for the Bay Area\u003c/a> to adapt to mid-century flooding caused by rising sea levels. But if leaders fail to act, the price could be much higher at around $230 billion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Local governments have until January 2034 to develop sea-level rise plans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Everybody now sees that deadline ten years from now and recognizes that this is real,” Goldzband said. “There’s going to be huge amounts of social and economic dislocation due to flooding if we don’t adapt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>His team plans to follow up with all local governments around the region to ensure they are on board so the Bay Area of tomorrow isn’t overwhelmed by water. The agency is holding community and government meetings across the area to get input on the plan, said Dana Brechwald, assistant planning director for climate adaptation with BCDC.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new law comes at a perfect time, she said, as the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life\">updated sea-level rise standards\u003c/a> could come out in the next few months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a trifecta of initiatives we’ve never seen before,” she said. “I think it’s going to accelerate action throughout the state. We’re excited. This is what we live for.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1984830/california-mandates-coastal-cities-plan-for-future-sea-level-rise","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_4550","science_40","science_2873","science_4450","science_98"],"tags":["science_856","science_2455","science_194","science_843","science_309","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1984831","label":"science"},"science_1983106":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1983106","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1983106","score":null,"sort":[1687525258000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"map-more-than-5000-toxic-sites-along-sf-bay-are-threatened-by-rising-groundwater-new-study-finds","title":"MAP: More Than 5,000 Toxic Sites Along SF Bay Threatened by Rising Groundwater, New Study Finds","publishDate":1687525258,"format":"standard","headTitle":"MAP: More Than 5,000 Toxic Sites Along SF Bay Threatened by Rising Groundwater, New Study Finds | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>More than 5,200 toxic sites buried along the lip of San Francisco Bay could be impacted by rising groundwater levels over the next century, posing potentially severe risks to human and environmental health, according to a \u003ca href=\"https://news.berkeley.edu/2023/06/20/rising-groundwater-threatens-thousands-of-toxic-sites-in-the-bay-area/\">recently released study\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s more than 10 times as many potentially at-risk Bay Area sites as had been identified in previous reports. A disproportionate number are located in lower-income communities of color, including in low-lying areas of San Francisco, Richmond, West Oakland and East Palo Alto.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The higher the social vulnerability, the higher the density of contaminated sites,” said Kristina Hill, director of UC Berkeley’s Institute of Urban and Regional Development, who co-authored the study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Unlike much lower tallies from the federal and state agencies that oversee these sites, Hill’s study includes 1,480 open sites, which are in the process of being cleaned up or have not yet been cleaned up, as well as an additional 3,817 closed sites where some level of cleanup work may have been conducted, but that may still contain residual contaminants and be vulnerable to rising groundwater.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>The map below shows the more than 5,000 open (orange circle) and closed (black square) contaminated sites in the Bay Area that UC Berkeley Institute of Urban and Regional Development researchers identified as being potentially at risk of inundation by rising groundwater over the next century. Open sites include areas where cleanup has yet to begin or is still in progress. Closed sites include areas where cleanup has been completed but may still contain harmful toxins. For more information on each toxic site and the agency overseeing its cleanup, visit either of these searchable databases: \u003ca href=\"https://www.envirostor.dtsc.ca.gov/public/\">Envirostor\u003c/a> (from California’s Department of Toxics Control) or \u003ca href=\"https://geotracker.waterboards.ca.gov/\">GeoTracker\u003c/a> (from the state Water Resources Control Board).\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"width: 100%;\" align=\"center\">\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\" height=\"750\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" title=\"Contaminated sites\" src=\"//www.arcgis.com/apps/Embed/index.html?webmap=35ac1447ecd04b8faa3429f3e8fa429e&extent=-123.928,37.114,-120.4481,38.5586&home=true&zoom=true&previewImage=false&scale=true&search=true&searchextent=true&details=true&legendlayers=true&active_panel=legend&disable_scroll=false&theme=light\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv align=\"left\">\u003csmall>\u003ci>Map by Matthew Green/KQED\u003c/i>\u003c/small>\u003c/div>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sites are contaminated with everything from radioactive materials and small underground petroleum tanks to toxic chemicals that can vaporize into pipes leading directly to homes, Hill said. Some sites date to the 19th century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s like a graveyard,” Hill said. “Everything we’ve done in the past is coming up with that groundwater to haunt us in the present.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979645/see-a-map-of-hazardous-sites-at-risk-from-rising-seas\">other studies have identified toxic sites at risk of coastal flooding\u003c/a> due to climate change, this is the first to comprehensively pinpoint areas where rising groundwater is likely to come into contact with contaminants and potentially move them toward both the bay and people’s homes. Twice as much land in the Bay Area could be affected by groundwater rise compared to coastal flooding, according to the new study, which is currently in the process of peer review (a \u003ca href=\"https://essopenarchive.org/users/621729/articles/645176-rising-coastal-groundwater-as-a-result-of-sea-level-rise-will-influence-contaminated-coastal-sites-and-underground-infrastructure\">preprint\u003c/a> and preliminary data are publicly available).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hill found that in nearly all Bay Area counties, the impact from rising groundwater along the bay will be more severe than from the more than three feet of sea level that could take place by mid-century. She said additional research is needed to better understand the risks those contaminants pose to human health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the study, Hill found that in all but one Bay Area county (Santa Clara County), the impact from rising groundwater along the bay will be more severe than that from rising seas. She said additional research is needed to better understand the risks those contaminants pose to human health.[aside label=\"More on toxic sites\" postID=\"science_1979645,science_1980255,science_1979092\"]The risk of potential contamination from groundwater rise is notably higher in California as compared to most other states because of its vast coastline and sheer number of vulnerable sites, she noted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hill said that rising groundwater — potentially made worse during atmospheric river storms and rising tides — is “already moving contaminants”\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981077/state-regulators-scrutinize-climate-plan-for-controversial-richmond-housing-development\">\u003cb> toward homes and businesses from toxic sites in places like Richmond.\u003c/b>\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The two state agencies in charge of enforcing cleanup of the sites, Hill said, need “to flip a switch” to the default goal of removing or neutralizing contaminants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a solvable problem. But it requires us to dig up the graves,” she said, emphasizing the need to consider rising groundwater levels in future climate adaptation plans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The idea is not to run away from these places,” she added. “The idea is to make them safe and healthy again.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cleanup of toxic sites can range from digging up contaminants and trucking debris to contained locations, treating toxics directly on-site, or capping the pollutants in the ground with materials like cement to prevent them from leaking. That third option, Hill said, is likely not a good long-term solution because groundwater rise will generally circumvent barriers over time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new findings presented in the study are revelatory and underscore the urgency of the situation, said Todd Sax, deputy director of site mitigation and restoration with the California Department of Toxic Substances Control, or DTSC, one of the agencies tasked with holding polluters accountable for cleaning up at-risk contaminated areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sax said his agency has identified about 300 particularly vulnerable toxic sites in the Bay Area and has set the goal of shoring them up to withstand 3.5 feet of sea level rise by 2050 and 6 feet by 2100. On a rolling basis, the agency is beginning to require known polluters to \u003ca href=\"https://dtsc.ca.gov/climate-change/\">assess the risks posed by sea-level and groundwater rise\u003c/a> at those sites and perform the necessary cleanups.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The bottom line is the polluter will pay for the vulnerability assessment unless the site does not have a responsible party,” Sax said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But he noted that a site cleanup doesn’t always mean polluters will be required to remove all contamination, even after a vulnerability assessment. He said that sometimes trucking contaminants out of a community can be more harmful to human health and the bay than leaving them in the ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There aren’t any magic bullets to help solve the environmental contamination problem,” he said. “The best we can do is remove or treat the contamination where we can and then to engineer robust solutions that protect public health and the environment into the future.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, the San Francisco Bay Regional Water Quality Control Board, which oversees cleanup operations in some 1,000 vulnerable toxic sites in the region, has only begun enforcing groundwater rise assessment in a tiny percentage of cleanup plans, said Alec Naugle, the agency’s toxics cleanup division manager.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have to act more quickly on the most vulnerable sites,” he said, stressing the need for more caseworkers to manage the cleanups. He said the agency recently began requiring landfill operators to account for groundwater rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The public can understand that this isn’t going ignored,” he said. “It is a sort of a slow-moving train and, at the same time, we need to have eyes on it now because the remedy is going to be costly.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Naugle and Sax note that the number of toxic sites identified in this study is substantially larger than the number their agencies oversee, due largely to Hill’s inclusion of closed sites, which could pose a lower risk to public health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, both agencies said they are assessing Hill’s data.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What Dr. Hill’s study points out, is that fundamentally, there’s going to be issues with these sites into the future,” Sax said.[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The study is among the first to pinpoint areas where rising groundwater is at risk of making contact with contaminants and could move them toward the bay or people’s homes.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845977,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["//www.arcgis.com/apps/Embed/index.html"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":27,"wordCount":1265},"headData":{"title":"MAP: More Than 5,000 Toxic Sites Along SF Bay Threatened by Rising Groundwater, New Study Finds | KQED","description":"The study is among the first to pinpoint areas where rising groundwater is at risk of making contact with contaminants and could move them toward the bay or people’s homes.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"MAP: More Than 5,000 Toxic Sites Along SF Bay Threatened by Rising Groundwater, New Study Finds","datePublished":"2023-06-23T13:00:58.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:19:37.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1983106/map-more-than-5000-toxic-sites-along-sf-bay-are-threatened-by-rising-groundwater-new-study-finds","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>More than 5,200 toxic sites buried along the lip of San Francisco Bay could be impacted by rising groundwater levels over the next century, posing potentially severe risks to human and environmental health, according to a \u003ca href=\"https://news.berkeley.edu/2023/06/20/rising-groundwater-threatens-thousands-of-toxic-sites-in-the-bay-area/\">recently released study\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s more than 10 times as many potentially at-risk Bay Area sites as had been identified in previous reports. A disproportionate number are located in lower-income communities of color, including in low-lying areas of San Francisco, Richmond, West Oakland and East Palo Alto.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The higher the social vulnerability, the higher the density of contaminated sites,” said Kristina Hill, director of UC Berkeley’s Institute of Urban and Regional Development, who co-authored the study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Unlike much lower tallies from the federal and state agencies that oversee these sites, Hill’s study includes 1,480 open sites, which are in the process of being cleaned up or have not yet been cleaned up, as well as an additional 3,817 closed sites where some level of cleanup work may have been conducted, but that may still contain residual contaminants and be vulnerable to rising groundwater.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>The map below shows the more than 5,000 open (orange circle) and closed (black square) contaminated sites in the Bay Area that UC Berkeley Institute of Urban and Regional Development researchers identified as being potentially at risk of inundation by rising groundwater over the next century. Open sites include areas where cleanup has yet to begin or is still in progress. Closed sites include areas where cleanup has been completed but may still contain harmful toxins. For more information on each toxic site and the agency overseeing its cleanup, visit either of these searchable databases: \u003ca href=\"https://www.envirostor.dtsc.ca.gov/public/\">Envirostor\u003c/a> (from California’s Department of Toxics Control) or \u003ca href=\"https://geotracker.waterboards.ca.gov/\">GeoTracker\u003c/a> (from the state Water Resources Control Board).\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"width: 100%;\" align=\"center\">\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\" height=\"750\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" title=\"Contaminated sites\" src=\"//www.arcgis.com/apps/Embed/index.html?webmap=35ac1447ecd04b8faa3429f3e8fa429e&extent=-123.928,37.114,-120.4481,38.5586&home=true&zoom=true&previewImage=false&scale=true&search=true&searchextent=true&details=true&legendlayers=true&active_panel=legend&disable_scroll=false&theme=light\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv align=\"left\">\u003csmall>\u003ci>Map by Matthew Green/KQED\u003c/i>\u003c/small>\u003c/div>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sites are contaminated with everything from radioactive materials and small underground petroleum tanks to toxic chemicals that can vaporize into pipes leading directly to homes, Hill said. Some sites date to the 19th century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s like a graveyard,” Hill said. “Everything we’ve done in the past is coming up with that groundwater to haunt us in the present.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979645/see-a-map-of-hazardous-sites-at-risk-from-rising-seas\">other studies have identified toxic sites at risk of coastal flooding\u003c/a> due to climate change, this is the first to comprehensively pinpoint areas where rising groundwater is likely to come into contact with contaminants and potentially move them toward both the bay and people’s homes. Twice as much land in the Bay Area could be affected by groundwater rise compared to coastal flooding, according to the new study, which is currently in the process of peer review (a \u003ca href=\"https://essopenarchive.org/users/621729/articles/645176-rising-coastal-groundwater-as-a-result-of-sea-level-rise-will-influence-contaminated-coastal-sites-and-underground-infrastructure\">preprint\u003c/a> and preliminary data are publicly available).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hill found that in nearly all Bay Area counties, the impact from rising groundwater along the bay will be more severe than from the more than three feet of sea level that could take place by mid-century. She said additional research is needed to better understand the risks those contaminants pose to human health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the study, Hill found that in all but one Bay Area county (Santa Clara County), the impact from rising groundwater along the bay will be more severe than that from rising seas. She said additional research is needed to better understand the risks those contaminants pose to human health.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"label":"More on toxic sites ","postid":"science_1979645,science_1980255,science_1979092"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>The risk of potential contamination from groundwater rise is notably higher in California as compared to most other states because of its vast coastline and sheer number of vulnerable sites, she noted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hill said that rising groundwater — potentially made worse during atmospheric river storms and rising tides — is “already moving contaminants”\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981077/state-regulators-scrutinize-climate-plan-for-controversial-richmond-housing-development\">\u003cb> toward homes and businesses from toxic sites in places like Richmond.\u003c/b>\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The two state agencies in charge of enforcing cleanup of the sites, Hill said, need “to flip a switch” to the default goal of removing or neutralizing contaminants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a solvable problem. But it requires us to dig up the graves,” she said, emphasizing the need to consider rising groundwater levels in future climate adaptation plans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The idea is not to run away from these places,” she added. “The idea is to make them safe and healthy again.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cleanup of toxic sites can range from digging up contaminants and trucking debris to contained locations, treating toxics directly on-site, or capping the pollutants in the ground with materials like cement to prevent them from leaking. That third option, Hill said, is likely not a good long-term solution because groundwater rise will generally circumvent barriers over time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new findings presented in the study are revelatory and underscore the urgency of the situation, said Todd Sax, deputy director of site mitigation and restoration with the California Department of Toxic Substances Control, or DTSC, one of the agencies tasked with holding polluters accountable for cleaning up at-risk contaminated areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sax said his agency has identified about 300 particularly vulnerable toxic sites in the Bay Area and has set the goal of shoring them up to withstand 3.5 feet of sea level rise by 2050 and 6 feet by 2100. On a rolling basis, the agency is beginning to require known polluters to \u003ca href=\"https://dtsc.ca.gov/climate-change/\">assess the risks posed by sea-level and groundwater rise\u003c/a> at those sites and perform the necessary cleanups.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The bottom line is the polluter will pay for the vulnerability assessment unless the site does not have a responsible party,” Sax said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But he noted that a site cleanup doesn’t always mean polluters will be required to remove all contamination, even after a vulnerability assessment. He said that sometimes trucking contaminants out of a community can be more harmful to human health and the bay than leaving them in the ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There aren’t any magic bullets to help solve the environmental contamination problem,” he said. “The best we can do is remove or treat the contamination where we can and then to engineer robust solutions that protect public health and the environment into the future.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, the San Francisco Bay Regional Water Quality Control Board, which oversees cleanup operations in some 1,000 vulnerable toxic sites in the region, has only begun enforcing groundwater rise assessment in a tiny percentage of cleanup plans, said Alec Naugle, the agency’s toxics cleanup division manager.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have to act more quickly on the most vulnerable sites,” he said, stressing the need for more caseworkers to manage the cleanups. He said the agency recently began requiring landfill operators to account for groundwater rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The public can understand that this isn’t going ignored,” he said. “It is a sort of a slow-moving train and, at the same time, we need to have eyes on it now because the remedy is going to be costly.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Naugle and Sax note that the number of toxic sites identified in this study is substantially larger than the number their agencies oversee, due largely to Hill’s inclusion of closed sites, which could pose a lower risk to public health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, both agencies said they are assessing Hill’s data.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What Dr. Hill’s study points out, is that fundamentally, there’s going to be issues with these sites into the future,” Sax said.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1983106/map-more-than-5000-toxic-sites-along-sf-bay-are-threatened-by-rising-groundwater-new-study-finds","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_31","science_39","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_194","science_4414","science_4859","science_4833","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1983120","label":"science"},"science_1982875":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1982875","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1982875","score":null,"sort":[1686056411000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"rising-seas-and-underground-perils-san-leandros-fight-for-climate-resilience","title":"How Sea Level Rise Poses a Looming Threat to San Leandro's Underground Infrastructure","publishDate":1686056411,"format":"standard","headTitle":"How Sea Level Rise Poses a Looming Threat to San Leandro’s Underground Infrastructure | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>On an unseasonably hot day on the edge of the San Leandro neighborhood of Mulford Gardens, David O’Donnell uses a heavy metal bar to lift a thick steel cover off a utility hole, exposing an echoey chamber running several hundred feet to the bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Oh, we got a crab in there. It crawled all the way through,” said O’Donnell, a maintenance supervisor for the city.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Below ground, tidal water pushes through the city’s pipes that were built to pump stormwater in the opposite direction.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re fighting the tide and fighting nature,” O’Donnell said. “It’s a bit of an uphill battle. There’s no pump we can install underground to hold the bay back at high tide.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These pipes — and other below-ground infrastructure — which already periodically flood during high tides could become more routinely inundated as the bay continues to rise because of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982915\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982915\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"A view of a drain with water flowing.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Water flows from a drain into the bay at the San Leandro Marina on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>San Leandro recently secured a small grant to develop a comprehensive plan to address the potential impact rising sea levels could have on its roughly 10-mile shoreline and intricate network of underground pipes. The city is also partnering with a team of San Diego State University climate scientists to determine how many of its 90,000 residents may be at risk from flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Having the plan now will put us in a much better place to plan how we can move forward into [the future],” said Hoi-Fei Mok, San Leandro’s sustainability manager, who uses they/them pronouns.[aside label=\"Related Stories\" postID=\"science_1981900,science_1982800,science_1981687\"]“It’s not like people don’t care,” said Mok, who grew up in San Leandro, where the vast majority of residents are people of color. “I’m able to tap into what the community is saying and bring that forward to [the San Leandro City Council] and be that extra amplification of community voices.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A former community organizer, Mok says they are dedicated to making sure this community is able to persevere through smoky skies, heat waves, floods and other increasingly frequent climate-induced conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Ultimately, it is my community that is being impacted,” they added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Leandro’s shoreline makes up less than 3% of the entirety of the lip of San Francisco Bay, but sea level rise will affect this entire region. Mok’s work is feeding into a regional partnership to ready every inch of the shoreline for the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A Bay Area-wide Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan is expected to be completed in mid-2024. The team behind it, led by Dana Brechwald, must get buy-in from more than 40 cities and counties — including San Leandro — to engage environmental-justice communities and develop uniform sea level rise standards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We want to make sure we’re considering impacts on neighbors so that we don’t have this issue of one city behind a tall wall and everybody around it flooding,” said Brechwald.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982918\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982918\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"An Asian American person sits and looks away from the camera.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hoi-Fei Mok, sustainability manager for the city of San Leandro, stands outside San Leandro City Hall on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It’s still unclear how San Leandro’s underground infrastructure will be affected as groundwater rises under the city. \u003ca href=\"https://sfei.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/portfolio/index.html?appid=2ab0c998497f4f7398aa54f176a6fb26%20\">Maps\u003c/a> produced by the San Francisco Estuary Institute and Pathways Climate Institute show that even 1 foot of sea level rise will cause groundwater to emerge in San Leandro.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The city’s stormwater pipes appear to be in good condition, according to Hassan Davani, associate professor at SDSU and a water resources engineer who is leading the team that’s partnering with San Leandro. Davani’s models don’t show major threats in the near term. Still, he said, his work, sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, does not include many other underground infrastructures like sewers, belowground power lines and drinking water pipes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Also, by looking at United States Geological Survey groundwater data, maps of underground infrastructure in the city and middle-of-the-road climate models, Hassan concluded that — as climate change worsens — the current stormwater system will almost certainly “be disrupted” by the end of the century. This could look like the bay pushing further up the drainage system, preventing stormwater from escaping and in turn flooding inland areas of the city.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982880\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982880\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Two young men stand by the side of a street and gaze at a handheld screen.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hassan Davani (right), a San Diego State University professor and water resources engineer, said that as climate change worsens, San Leandro will become increasingly vulnerable, and its current stormwater system will almost certainly ‘be disrupted’ by the end of the century. Kian Bagheri (left) is a doctoral student in Davani’s lab. \u003ccite>(Ezra David Romero/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have flooding further inland, kilometers inland, because the system will be packed with water at the downstream side,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But when taking into account more extreme climate models, Davani said, the disruption to the stormwater system could come around mid-century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pauline Russo Cutter, who served as mayor of San Leandro until earlier this year, said the city has also tested its wastewater infrastructure and has yet to find any red flags.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But she recognizes “it’s only a matter of time” before emerging groundwater becomes an issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If no one’s thinking about it, then these things kind of appear. That’s what can sink a city,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982881\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982881\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"A middle aged white woman with dark brown hair stands beside the shore of San Leandro Bay as she talks toward the camera with sunglasses on.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Former San Leandro Mayor Pauline Russo Cutter says ‘it’s only a matter of time’ before emerging groundwater becomes an issue. \u003ccite>(Ezra David Romero/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In preparing for sea level rise, Mok, the sustainability manager, dreams of a range of solutions — everything from building levees to utilizing marshes to soak up waves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think nature-based solutions have a lot of benefits that I think would be great for us,” Mok said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But, despite the imminent threat that sea level rise poses — with the bay expected to rise by at least a foot in the next three decades — Mok acknowledges that actively preparing for it now can be a hard sell given more immediate concerns like budget issues, staff shortages and ongoing health emergencies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982916\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982916\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"A view of a street leading to a marina sign.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A sign for the San Leandro Marina marks the entrance to the shoreline in the Mulford Gardens neighborhood in San Leandro on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“Sea level rise is tricky for people to wrap their heads around,” said Mok. “I’m hoping this is an opportunity not to get alarmed, but to realize this is something that is coming, not just in San Leandro, but regionally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"San Leandro is fighting an uphill battle as climate change leads to sea level rise. Sustainability manager Hoi-Fei Mok amplifies community voices and dreams of nature-based solutions amid emerging challenges.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845994,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":26,"wordCount":1166},"headData":{"title":"How Sea Level Rise Poses a Looming Threat to San Leandro's Underground Infrastructure | KQED","description":"San Leandro is fighting an uphill battle as climate change leads to sea level rise. Sustainability manager Hoi-Fei Mok amplifies community voices and dreams of nature-based solutions amid emerging challenges.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"How Sea Level Rise Poses a Looming Threat to San Leandro's Underground Infrastructure","datePublished":"2023-06-06T13:00:11.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:19:54.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1982875/rising-seas-and-underground-perils-san-leandros-fight-for-climate-resilience","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>On an unseasonably hot day on the edge of the San Leandro neighborhood of Mulford Gardens, David O’Donnell uses a heavy metal bar to lift a thick steel cover off a utility hole, exposing an echoey chamber running several hundred feet to the bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Oh, we got a crab in there. It crawled all the way through,” said O’Donnell, a maintenance supervisor for the city.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Below ground, tidal water pushes through the city’s pipes that were built to pump stormwater in the opposite direction.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re fighting the tide and fighting nature,” O’Donnell said. “It’s a bit of an uphill battle. There’s no pump we can install underground to hold the bay back at high tide.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These pipes — and other below-ground infrastructure — which already periodically flood during high tides could become more routinely inundated as the bay continues to rise because of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982915\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982915\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"A view of a drain with water flowing.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Water flows from a drain into the bay at the San Leandro Marina on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>San Leandro recently secured a small grant to develop a comprehensive plan to address the potential impact rising sea levels could have on its roughly 10-mile shoreline and intricate network of underground pipes. The city is also partnering with a team of San Diego State University climate scientists to determine how many of its 90,000 residents may be at risk from flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Having the plan now will put us in a much better place to plan how we can move forward into [the future],” said Hoi-Fei Mok, San Leandro’s sustainability manager, who uses they/them pronouns.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"label":"Related Stories ","postid":"science_1981900,science_1982800,science_1981687"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“It’s not like people don’t care,” said Mok, who grew up in San Leandro, where the vast majority of residents are people of color. “I’m able to tap into what the community is saying and bring that forward to [the San Leandro City Council] and be that extra amplification of community voices.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A former community organizer, Mok says they are dedicated to making sure this community is able to persevere through smoky skies, heat waves, floods and other increasingly frequent climate-induced conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Ultimately, it is my community that is being impacted,” they added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Leandro’s shoreline makes up less than 3% of the entirety of the lip of San Francisco Bay, but sea level rise will affect this entire region. Mok’s work is feeding into a regional partnership to ready every inch of the shoreline for the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A Bay Area-wide Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan is expected to be completed in mid-2024. The team behind it, led by Dana Brechwald, must get buy-in from more than 40 cities and counties — including San Leandro — to engage environmental-justice communities and develop uniform sea level rise standards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We want to make sure we’re considering impacts on neighbors so that we don’t have this issue of one city behind a tall wall and everybody around it flooding,” said Brechwald.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982918\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982918\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"An Asian American person sits and looks away from the camera.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hoi-Fei Mok, sustainability manager for the city of San Leandro, stands outside San Leandro City Hall on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It’s still unclear how San Leandro’s underground infrastructure will be affected as groundwater rises under the city. \u003ca href=\"https://sfei.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/portfolio/index.html?appid=2ab0c998497f4f7398aa54f176a6fb26%20\">Maps\u003c/a> produced by the San Francisco Estuary Institute and Pathways Climate Institute show that even 1 foot of sea level rise will cause groundwater to emerge in San Leandro.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The city’s stormwater pipes appear to be in good condition, according to Hassan Davani, associate professor at SDSU and a water resources engineer who is leading the team that’s partnering with San Leandro. Davani’s models don’t show major threats in the near term. Still, he said, his work, sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, does not include many other underground infrastructures like sewers, belowground power lines and drinking water pipes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Also, by looking at United States Geological Survey groundwater data, maps of underground infrastructure in the city and middle-of-the-road climate models, Hassan concluded that — as climate change worsens — the current stormwater system will almost certainly “be disrupted” by the end of the century. This could look like the bay pushing further up the drainage system, preventing stormwater from escaping and in turn flooding inland areas of the city.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982880\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982880\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Two young men stand by the side of a street and gaze at a handheld screen.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hassan Davani (right), a San Diego State University professor and water resources engineer, said that as climate change worsens, San Leandro will become increasingly vulnerable, and its current stormwater system will almost certainly ‘be disrupted’ by the end of the century. Kian Bagheri (left) is a doctoral student in Davani’s lab. \u003ccite>(Ezra David Romero/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have flooding further inland, kilometers inland, because the system will be packed with water at the downstream side,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But when taking into account more extreme climate models, Davani said, the disruption to the stormwater system could come around mid-century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pauline Russo Cutter, who served as mayor of San Leandro until earlier this year, said the city has also tested its wastewater infrastructure and has yet to find any red flags.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But she recognizes “it’s only a matter of time” before emerging groundwater becomes an issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If no one’s thinking about it, then these things kind of appear. That’s what can sink a city,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982881\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982881\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"A middle aged white woman with dark brown hair stands beside the shore of San Leandro Bay as she talks toward the camera with sunglasses on.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Former San Leandro Mayor Pauline Russo Cutter says ‘it’s only a matter of time’ before emerging groundwater becomes an issue. \u003ccite>(Ezra David Romero/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In preparing for sea level rise, Mok, the sustainability manager, dreams of a range of solutions — everything from building levees to utilizing marshes to soak up waves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think nature-based solutions have a lot of benefits that I think would be great for us,” Mok said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But, despite the imminent threat that sea level rise poses — with the bay expected to rise by at least a foot in the next three decades — Mok acknowledges that actively preparing for it now can be a hard sell given more immediate concerns like budget issues, staff shortages and ongoing health emergencies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982916\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982916\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"A view of a street leading to a marina sign.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A sign for the San Leandro Marina marks the entrance to the shoreline in the Mulford Gardens neighborhood in San Leandro on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“Sea level rise is tricky for people to wrap their heads around,” said Mok. “I’m hoping this is an opportunity not to get alarmed, but to realize this is something that is coming, not just in San Leandro, but regionally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1982875/rising-seas-and-underground-perils-san-leandros-fight-for-climate-resilience","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_4550","science_40","science_2873","science_4450","science_98"],"tags":["science_194","science_4414","science_556","science_2830","science_4833","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1982914","label":"science"},"science_1982309":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1982309","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1982309","score":null,"sort":[1681945230000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"san-mateo-countys-new-sea-level-rise-plan-calls-for-a-100-foot-buffer-zone-for-shoreline-development","title":"San Mateo County’s New Sea Level Rise Plan Calls for a 100-Foot Buffer Zone for Shoreline Development","publishDate":1681945230,"format":"standard","headTitle":"San Mateo County’s New Sea Level Rise Plan Calls for a 100-Foot Buffer Zone for Shoreline Development | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>San Mateo County released first-of-its-kind\u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.org/planning-guidance/\"> sea level rise guidance\u003c/a> today, a forceful planning document meant to slow a bonanza of shoreline development and protect a dozen communities from climate-driven flooding near San Francisco Bay, including from rising groundwater and catastrophic flooding during storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/OneShoreline-Planning-Guidance-Policy-Draft_04.18.23_PRINT-VERSION-1.pdf\">voluntary guidance (PDF)\u003c/a> asks that any new development along the county’s 53 miles of bayshore be constructed above today’s high tide by around 10 feet in an effort to protect businesses and residents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan would also establish a 100-foot buffer zone between future developments and the bay and set new buildings 35 feet back from creeks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size='medium' align='left' citation=\"Len Materman, CEO, OneShoreline\"]‘I’d love to be proven wrong and for somebody to say that OneShoreline protected us too much. Let’s provide too much protection rather than under-protecting people.’[/pullquote]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re not familiar with any [other guidance] that’s this specific and this aggressive on climate flooding,” said Len Materman, CEO of \u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.org/\">OneShoreline\u003c/a>, San Mateo County’s flood and sea level rise resiliency district.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The protection standards attempt to safeguard future developments from a far wetter future because of the effects of climate change brought on by humans burning fossil fuels globally.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new guidance could affect developments between Highway 101 and the shoreline in Brisbane, Burlingame, East Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Redwood City and South San Francisco, which are currently in planning. This is an opportunity for developers to adapt their plans for the changing climate, said Materman.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These developments that are coming in now or in the next few years are going to lock in what our shoreline looks like,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.bcdc.ca.gov/cm/2023/04-06-Briefing-Funding-and-Investment-Framework-presentation.pdf\">Bay Area will need to spend $110 billion dollars to adapt to rising tides (PDF)\u003c/a>, according to a new economic study from the Bay Conservation and Development Commission and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agencies estimate the revenue currently available to pay for these adaptation projects at just $5 billion.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>San Mateo plans steps out ahead of California\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>San Mateo County’s climate scenario goes beyond state recommendations and what most bay agencies are adapting for. Materman said the county should overprepare for climate change, as it’s one of the most at risk in the state from rising tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’d love to be proven wrong and for somebody to say that OneShoreline protected us too much,” he said. “Let’s provide too much protection rather than under-protecting people when we really see the impacts of climate change today.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The guidance also outlines planning tips for dealing with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979645/see-a-map-of-hazardous-sites-at-risk-from-rising-seas\">contaminated sites near the edge of the bay\u003c/a>, liquefaction risk from earthquakes and underground structures like sewers. It recommends that planners consider future storms — \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000275\">expected to become 37% wetter by the end of the century\u003c/a>, according to Bay Area climate scientists — by making sure that stormwater infrastructure can handle more significant flows.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The recommendations come with \u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/sidebar/index.html?appid=ed2a5cb599ca4651bc6a0c3530271905&locale=en\">risk maps\u003c/a> of sea and groundwater rise due to climate change for planners to understand how the two water sources may inundate communities and businesses near the lip of the bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982326\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1982326\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-1020x712.jpg\" alt=\"A green map of the southern Bay Area, with a large section of San Mateo's coastline in yellow. \" width=\"640\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-1020x712.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-800x558.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-160x112.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-768x536.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB.jpg 1142w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A screen grab of the county’s sea level rise risk maps.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Materman said anyone who lives or commutes within San Mateo County should care about the risks from climate flooding because a large portion of the infrastructure that supports its bustling cities is along the waterfront.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Let’s use the knowledge that we have about climate change and the bay to make better decisions, and so we don’t lock in these very expensive, difficult problems when we can try to do something about it preemptively,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The new planning document is 'voluntary but highly encouraged' for the 12 cities in San Mateo County that border the bay.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704846047,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":18,"wordCount":640},"headData":{"title":"San Mateo County’s New Sea Level Rise Plan Calls for a 100-Foot Buffer Zone for Shoreline Development | KQED","description":"The new planning document is 'voluntary but highly encouraged' for the 12 cities in San Mateo County that border the bay.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"San Mateo County’s New Sea Level Rise Plan Calls for a 100-Foot Buffer Zone for Shoreline Development","datePublished":"2023-04-19T23:00:30.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:20:47.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Sea Level Rise ","sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1982309/san-mateo-countys-new-sea-level-rise-plan-calls-for-a-100-foot-buffer-zone-for-shoreline-development","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>San Mateo County released first-of-its-kind\u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.org/planning-guidance/\"> sea level rise guidance\u003c/a> today, a forceful planning document meant to slow a bonanza of shoreline development and protect a dozen communities from climate-driven flooding near San Francisco Bay, including from rising groundwater and catastrophic flooding during storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/OneShoreline-Planning-Guidance-Policy-Draft_04.18.23_PRINT-VERSION-1.pdf\">voluntary guidance (PDF)\u003c/a> asks that any new development along the county’s 53 miles of bayshore be constructed above today’s high tide by around 10 feet in an effort to protect businesses and residents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan would also establish a 100-foot buffer zone between future developments and the bay and set new buildings 35 feet back from creeks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘I’d love to be proven wrong and for somebody to say that OneShoreline protected us too much. Let’s provide too much protection rather than under-protecting people.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"left","citation":"Len Materman, CEO, OneShoreline","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re not familiar with any [other guidance] that’s this specific and this aggressive on climate flooding,” said Len Materman, CEO of \u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.org/\">OneShoreline\u003c/a>, San Mateo County’s flood and sea level rise resiliency district.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The protection standards attempt to safeguard future developments from a far wetter future because of the effects of climate change brought on by humans burning fossil fuels globally.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new guidance could affect developments between Highway 101 and the shoreline in Brisbane, Burlingame, East Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Redwood City and South San Francisco, which are currently in planning. This is an opportunity for developers to adapt their plans for the changing climate, said Materman.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These developments that are coming in now or in the next few years are going to lock in what our shoreline looks like,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.bcdc.ca.gov/cm/2023/04-06-Briefing-Funding-and-Investment-Framework-presentation.pdf\">Bay Area will need to spend $110 billion dollars to adapt to rising tides (PDF)\u003c/a>, according to a new economic study from the Bay Conservation and Development Commission and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agencies estimate the revenue currently available to pay for these adaptation projects at just $5 billion.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>San Mateo plans steps out ahead of California\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>San Mateo County’s climate scenario goes beyond state recommendations and what most bay agencies are adapting for. Materman said the county should overprepare for climate change, as it’s one of the most at risk in the state from rising tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’d love to be proven wrong and for somebody to say that OneShoreline protected us too much,” he said. “Let’s provide too much protection rather than under-protecting people when we really see the impacts of climate change today.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The guidance also outlines planning tips for dealing with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979645/see-a-map-of-hazardous-sites-at-risk-from-rising-seas\">contaminated sites near the edge of the bay\u003c/a>, liquefaction risk from earthquakes and underground structures like sewers. It recommends that planners consider future storms — \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000275\">expected to become 37% wetter by the end of the century\u003c/a>, according to Bay Area climate scientists — by making sure that stormwater infrastructure can handle more significant flows.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The recommendations come with \u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/sidebar/index.html?appid=ed2a5cb599ca4651bc6a0c3530271905&locale=en\">risk maps\u003c/a> of sea and groundwater rise due to climate change for planners to understand how the two water sources may inundate communities and businesses near the lip of the bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982326\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1982326\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-1020x712.jpg\" alt=\"A green map of the southern Bay Area, with a large section of San Mateo's coastline in yellow. \" width=\"640\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-1020x712.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-800x558.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-160x112.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB-768x536.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/ONESHORELINE-SCREENGRAB.jpg 1142w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A screen grab of the county’s sea level rise risk maps.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Materman said anyone who lives or commutes within San Mateo County should care about the risks from climate flooding because a large portion of the infrastructure that supports its bustling cities is along the waterfront.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Let’s use the knowledge that we have about climate change and the bay to make better decisions, and so we don’t lock in these very expensive, difficult problems when we can try to do something about it preemptively,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1982309/san-mateo-countys-new-sea-level-rise-plan-calls-for-a-100-foot-buffer-zone-for-shoreline-development","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_194","science_4414","science_2114","science_4859","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1982310","label":"source_science_1982309"},"science_1982130":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1982130","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1982130","score":null,"sort":[1680699603000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"promising-to-prevent-floods-at-treasure-island-builders-downplay-risk-of-sea-rise","title":"Promising to Prevent Floods at Treasure Island, Builders Downplay Risk of Sea Rise","publishDate":1680699603,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Promising to Prevent Floods at Treasure Island, Builders Downplay Risk of Sea Rise | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was reported by the \u003ca href=\"https://sfpublicpress.org/\">San Francisco Public Press\u003c/a>, an independent nonprofit newsroom focused on accountability journalism, in partnership with Inside Climate News.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sea level rise is forcing cities around San Francisco Bay to weigh demand for new housing against the need to protect communities from flooding. Builders say they can solve this dilemma with cutting-edge civil engineering. But no one knows whether their ambitious efforts will be enough to keep newly built waterfront real estate safe in coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, developers are busy building — and telling the public that they can mitigate this one effect of climate change, despite mounting evidence that it could be a bigger problem than previously believed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Treasure Island, a flat tract of 20th-century landfill with epic bay vistas, workers have poured the foundation for a 22-story tower, the first of six planned high-rise buildings, and broken ground on an affordable housing complex. Another, for families and unhoused veterans, is nearly complete. Townhomes, retail space and a waterfront transit hub are also in the pipeline. All told, the $6 billion development would be home to 20,000 people or more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Engineers for the public-private consortium transforming the island, Treasure Island Community Development, say they are pursuing aggressive sea rise adaptation strategies. Improvements include raising some of the land by several feet, preparing a buffer zone for future levees and pumps, and setting aside low-lying open space that could convert to floodable marshland as higher bay waters spill onshore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is not a cheap endeavor. The development group’s director, Bob Beck, did not return multiple emails and phone calls regarding costs for this work. A 2011 report by the city of San Francisco, which includes Treasure Island, estimated that “geotechnical stabilization” measures would cost $137 million. Storm drains, soil grading and landscape and open-space improvements would add about $120 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dilip Trivedi, the site’s project manager with international engineering firm Moffatt and Nichol, has been touting the consortium’s efforts for more than a decade. He said in a recent interview that the most built-up parts of the island should be safe from sea rise through at least 2070. Fifty years or so is a reasonable planning horizon for new developments, he added, and additional phased seawall construction can help future generations stay a step ahead of ever-higher tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“When you put together significant infrastructure, you don’t want to have to maintain it for about that time,” Trivedi said. “It is what we call project life.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982132\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982132\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"Two construction workers seen on the job on residential tower. \" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">After years of planning, construction has started on residential towers with sweeping views of San Francisco and the Bay Area. At least 20,000 residents are expected to live on the island by 2035. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists, however, commonly try to predict sea rise out at least to the year 2100, a time when some current schoolchildren could be octogenarian residents of the island.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Every contemporary climate model predicts that, even with deep carbon reductions starting this decade, several feet of sea rise are locked in. The debates for climate adaptation strategy are how many feet and how far down the road we should consider.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With ever more sophisticated climate predictions, the outlook for sea level rise has continued to darken, indicating that current trends will likely accelerate through the end of the century. In one pessimistic scenario — which researchers say is among the possibilities in a “business as usual” global greenhouse gas emissions future — much of the island could find itself underwater frequently, and some of the most developed areas could occasionally be threatened with flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To home in on Treasure Island’s future, the San Francisco Public Press asked researchers at the United States Geological Survey’s Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, based in Santa Cruz, to create a highly localized model of sea rise conditions under various climate scenarios. They found that bay waters could surge higher than the developers have long been saying publicly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In that model, by 2100 there is a small but not insignificant chance of 4 feet, 11 inches of sea level rise — slightly more than what the island’s engineers have accounted for. Adding in the effects of tides, weather and other transient events, such as in the kind of extreme storm seen once in a century, that total could be 2 feet, 11 inches higher.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The resulting surge would, at least temporarily, send waves 1 foot, 2 inches higher than the lowest ground floors of some planned housing complexes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982133\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px.png\" alt=\"Facing Sea Level Rise at Treasure Island\" width=\"700\" height=\"691\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px.png 700w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px-160x158.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the project’s engineers never address this possibility in their public narratives, documents they have prepared show they have known about similar scenarios for years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Their own maps, which superimpose flood conditions on existing land elevations, line up fairly closely to the Geological Survey’s findings. Yet the engineers have chosen to downplay the likelihood of these outcomes as they pursued permits to build, arguing that novel construction technologies could make the development invulnerable to flooding under any reasonable course of events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a 2016 sea rise adaptation filing with a regional watershed agency, Moffatt and Nichol included six maps showing potential flood conditions in each construction phase, side by side with maps showing how the planned short- and long-term sea level rise protections would prevent inundation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One map shows 4 feet of sea rise. Before any land improvements, nearly the entire island would have been inundated — up to 8 feet in places — during flooding calculated by FEMA to have a 1% chance of occurring per year. Another part of that document showed a graph that indicated a 4-foot rise was possible by around 2093. The Geological Survey’s extreme scenario model for 2100 puts sea rise closer to 5 feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Trivedi said that the raising of the land under many of the buildings, plus additional shoreline improvements, would protect key infrastructure. Beside that map, the engineers showed how the existing 3.5-mile perimeter wall could be raised by 1 to 3 feet, depending on location, which they said would keep much of the island dry, although a note appended to the diagram said: “Does not show intentional flooding from managed retreat on northern and eastern shorelines — TBD.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Within the last year, regulators have started questioning whether the steps developers are taking are sufficient to guarantee that the island remains dry in the long term.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a community that will be around a while,” said Ethan Lavine, chief of permits for shoreline development for the Bay Conservation and Development Commission. “At a certain point in time, they will need levee protection.” Lavine’s office is pressing Trivedi and his colleagues to use a more cautious view of climate change when assessing whether Treasure Island’s flood prevention techniques can handle what nature might throw at them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When evaluating permit applications, government agencies require developers to reference the “best available science” to assess threats from climate change. In October 2021, the engineers issued an update to the 2016 filing. In it, Trivedi compared his firm’s sea level rise expectations against studies by several scientific bodies, including California’s Ocean Protection Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. His preferred predictions minimized the effect of the worst-case scenarios. The only needed change, he argued, would be to move up the time frame for planning adaptations by as much as five years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982134\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px.png\" alt=\"Fortifying Treasure Island\" width=\"750\" height=\"864\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px.png 750w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px-160x184.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet climate policy experts point out that with significant scientific papers being released each year, guidance for builders has become a moving target. Because they admit a great deal of uncertainty in their predictions, scientists always publish their results in charts that consider an array of environmental assumptions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That gives developers leeway to choose which predictions to focus on when describing the risks to their capital investments. Treasure Island could be the most expensive local project in the region’s history to take advantage of this ambiguity.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Projecting optimism\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>All of Trivedi’s recent public statements conclude that the likelihood of the gloomiest climate scenarios is remote, and that the level of risk to property and lives is insignificant given the proposed engineering fixes. But a close examination of the 2021 adaptation plan offers a few reasons for concern:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>It dismisses high-end forecasts, in which global warming accelerates due to uncontrolled carbon emissions.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It selectively cites climate models that make planned infrastructure appear sufficient to virtually eliminate future flood risk.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It focuses on relatively short time frames, such as 20 or 50 years, while offering little specificity about expected conditions at the end of the century, which falls within the lifetimes of some children alive today.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said in an interview that for planning purposes, he is focused on one recent predicted milestone: 3 feet of sea rise by 2080. In that circumstance, the ground floors of most buildings, to be built upon a now-elevated development pad, would still have a buffer of nearly 4 feet above the average highest tide of today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He also asserted that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a scientific committee organized by the United Nations, recently reported sea rise could be less severe than previously forecasted, based on the track record of recent years. “What has been observed is that sea level rise is not tracking” to the most pessimistic scenarios, he said. But there are reasons to question his conclusion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The localized scenario for 2100 examined by the Geological Survey — the one resulting in water levels 1 foot, 2 inches above some developed areas — relies on a climate change prediction assessed to have a probability of 0.5%, that is, a 1-in-200 statistical chance of occurring. That prediction was published by the California Ocean Protection Council, a body of experts organized by the state government, in recent guidelines for community planning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said the international group’s current report indicates there’s “low confidence in that scenario happening.” When asked for a citation to back up this claim, Trivedi referenced a “localized model” of the findings from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and five other federal agencies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html\">report these agencies jointly issued in February 2022\u003c/a> in fact gave a more nuanced view. In a section titled “Future Mean Sea Level,” the authors did exclude one scenario used by the Ocean Protection Council that had been labeled “extreme” and not given a numerical probability. But that is not the scenario Trivedi said the group ruled out. This same report indicates that the West Coast is likely to see 4 to 8 inches of rise over 30 years, accelerating later in the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Regardless of the pace of the increase, Treasure Island developers say they have contingency plans relying on future residents or taxpayers to fund the construction of progressively higher walls around the urban zone — several feet every few decades. In its latest update, Moffatt and Nichol said sea level rise of 1 foot by 2043 would trigger the plan to elevate the perimeter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A strategy reliant on levees might seem risky in light of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when faulty engineering of levees led to catastrophic flooding of parts of New Orleans that sit below the level of the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico. In light of this recent history, Bay Area regulators are starting to ask whether the Treasure Island plan is entirely watertight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A March 2022 letter from the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the agency that issued the island’s 2016 permit for waterfront areas, called the update too optimistic and tolerant of long-term flooding potential.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Public access along a shoreline and a big mixed-use development require using a medium-to-high-risk projection for sea level rise,” said the commission’s planning manager, Erik Buehmann.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Reengineering shaky ground\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>On an island built by the government generations ago out of rocks, soil and dredged sand, preparing high-and-dry land would be difficult even if it were not in an earthquake and tsunami zone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In numerous reports and public presentations, Trivedi has said construction workers have elevated land on the 100-acre development pad to 3 feet, 6 inches above the “base flood elevation” — a height calculated by Federal Emergency Management Agency representing a 1% chance of flooding each year. The homes, hotels and businesses there will be set back from the shoreline by 200 to 300 feet on most sides and as much as 1,000 feet from the northern shore because that area is more prone to flooding. Building is planned to roll out in phases through 2035.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Workers have spent years using cranes to repeatedly drop heavy weights to compact the soil. They have driven vibrating probes into the earth, filling the holes with concrete for stabilization. They then piled 1 million cubic yards of soil atop the compacted layer. These measures are intended to prevent the kind of ground liquefaction seen in the Marina District and elsewhere during the devastating 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Other geological improvements include inserting vertical wick drains, akin to long drinking straws, to help remove water from the soil as it compresses. These techniques have been used by civil engineers around the world for more than 30 years to develop areas without easy access to bedrock.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982135\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982135\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A view of compacted yards of soil.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Developers have trucked in and compacted 1 million cubic yards of soil to raise the land underneath new buildings in one strategy to mitigate flood risk. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said these measures, together with a jagged, rocky seawall raised to allow for just over 1 foot of sea rise, would help take energy out of large waves, and the setback would use the landscape to dissipate any possible overtopping before it reaches valuable structures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the same time, the engineers have recognized that much of the island — particularly the low-lying northern end — are indefensible. Areas that have flooded in the past will eventually be sacrificed to rising waters. That strategy has immediate, concrete consequences: Dozens of existing structures, including homes of about 3,000 people currently living there, are set to be demolished to create open space. Over time these areas could be turned into tidal marshland to protect the newly developed areas from storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Regulators balk at a sunny assessment\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the agency most empowered to weigh in on new waterfront building, is hamstrung by a legal mandate to regulate only what happens 100 feet inland, regardless of elevation — an artifact of legislation dating from before climate change was a dominant concern.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 2016 permit the agency issued for improvements on Treasure Island’s margins, including a ferry terminal, required adaptation updates every five years. Moffatt and Nichol’s 2021 update concluded that the original adaptation plans needed few changes, except for possibly needing to accelerate, by five years, the planning process for building higher perimeter levees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Regulators balked at the assessment. In a March 2022 letter, the commission advised Moffatt and Nichol to plan more conservatively. The agency demanded consideration of a 1-in-200 chance sea rise scenario, in which seas rise 6 feet, 11 inches by 2100. Adding in a 100-year storm surge, waves could plausibly overtop portions of the sea wall along the southeastern side by about 1 to 2 feet, and along the northern end by about 1 foot. That is an even worse outcome than that predicted by Geological Survey’s localized flooding model.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The commission said Moffatt and Nichol seemed too dismissive of chances that things could go wrong.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The permittees decided to design the project considering very low risk of sea level rise related impacts” the letter said, noting also that engineers seemed too focused on the short time horizon of 2080.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trivedi counters that the Treasure Island development was never built upon projections of a certain sea level happening by a certain date, because seawalls can, for all practical purposes, be built arbitrarily high, on whatever schedule is needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We adopted an approach where we decided on an allowance we are building into the project,” he said in the interview. “As future projections come out, we will adjust the date of the adaptation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Commission staff met with planners from Moffatt and Nichol last summer to work out the requested additions to the 2021 adaptation strategy. Buehmann, who worked on the original permit, said follow-up discussions were to be expected because the Treasure Island permit was the first since the commission began requiring builders to submit sea rise assessments. “We didn’t expect it to be perfect the first time,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Whatever comes of this process which Trivedi referred to as merely “an internal thing” that was required for the filing — the adaptation plan is unlikely to change significantly, because the development pad is already in place and huge construction cranes are sprouting up on Treasure Island’s skyline. What is left in the playbook is raising future seawalls, ceding the northern open space and the installation of pumps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Government officials have long acknowledged the inevitability of Treasure Island’s relying on artificial barriers. In 2015, Brad McCrea, regulatory program director at the commission, \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/major-s-f-bayfront-developments-advance-despite-sea-rise-warnings/\">told the Public Press\u003c/a>: “At the end of the day, this will be a levee-protected community — there’s no getting around that.” Since then, agency staff have not changed their view.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Rapidly outdated climate science\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>To determine how high to raise the building pad, Treasure Island builders consulted several climate studies published as early as 1987 and as recently as 2007. At that point, scientists were predicting that by 2100, oceans could rise as much as 4 feet, 7 inches.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This forecast was echoed by a state panel of scientists and policy experts in 2009, when then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger visited Treasure Island to announce its findings and call for better sea level rise mitigation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982136\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982136\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A view of the San Francisco skyline from Treasure Island.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">When finished, Treasure Island could be a spectacular locale for commuters to San Francisco to settle. But residents will face similar flooding challenges to those in waterfront communities throughout the Bay Area. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Moffatt and Nichol then relied on these studies to anticipate that the oceans would rise 3 feet by 2075. So the company proposed raising the development pad to 3 feet, 6 inches above the predicted levels for a once-in-a-hundred-year flood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Moffatt and Nichol did not spell out a rationale for setting the height of the development pad, as the \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/uncertain-about-rising-seas-developers-using-mid-range-estimate-to-build-up-island/\">Public Press reported in 2010\u003c/a>. The firm did argue that raising it higher could create other problems, such as jeopardizing the island’s stability under the weight of packed soil and adding expense. “At some point it doesn’t become cost-effective — it’s a matter of acceptable levels of risk over your planning horizon,” Trivedi said in an interview then.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be sure, when Treasure Island plans were drawn up, scientific modeling showed wide uncertainty about how much global temperatures could increase. In 2009, scientists around the world were saying that oceans could rise anywhere from a minimum of 3 feet, 3 inches to a maximum of 4 feet, 11 inches by 2100. At that time, the effects of ice melt from land via glaciers, snowpacks and ice caps were little understood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, European and U.S. scientists using satellite imagery to measure the shape of Greenland’s ice sheets say melting is outstripping gains from snowfall. In \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2\">a paper published last August\u003c/a>, they found that no matter how much countries curb emissions, seas will rise by a minimum of 11 inches from this effect alone.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Focusing locally\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The U.S. Geological Survey developed the \u003ca href=\"https://ourcoastourfuture.org/science-and-modeling/\">Coastal Storm Modeling System\u003c/a> to help protect waterfront communities. It simulates \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-40742-z#MOESM1\">the forces behind wave and wind data and translates them into local flood projections\u003c/a> that include tides, storm surges, waves and seasonal events such as El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Public Press requested that the agency simulate a small section of San Francisco Bay, in the vicinity of Treasure Island, relying on probability scenarios for global sea levels in 2100 developed by the \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/opc-climate-change-program/sea-level-rise-2/\">California Ocean Protection Council\u003c/a> in \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/agenda_items/20180314/Item3_Exhibit-A_OPC_SLR_Guidance-rd3.pdf\">a 2018 guidance paper (PDF)\u003c/a>. This report offered up sea rise projections of likelihoods as high as 50% and as low as 0.5%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Ocean Protection Council’s examination of a wide array of probabilities heavily influenced the Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s critique of the Treasure Island adaptation update. The commission’s biggest concern was that change might happen faster than the engineers were anticipating.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" allow=\"fullscreen 'none'\" frameborder=\"0\" src=\"https://coastal.climatecentral.org/embed/map/13/-122.3736/37.8082/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&water_level=7.8&water_unit=ft\" width=\"100%\" height=\"450\" title=\"Climate Central | Land below 7.8 feet of water\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cstrong>Explore sea level rise scenarios using \u003ca href=\"https://climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a>’s interactive tool. Here we show floodwaters at 7.8 feet above the present-day high tide line.\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Trivedi said the Ocean Protection Council’s past predictions had already failed. “If you look at the year 2022 projections, follow the OPC formulas,” Trivedi said. “We should have seen about 8 inches of sea level rise since 2000. In reality, it has been about 2 inches or less.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most forecasts predict increased global temperatures due to persistent carbon pollution. But the emissions projections are still hotly contested.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Ocean Protection Council examined two emissions scenarios. \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200804085912.htm\">One assumed that\u003c/a> carbon dioxide output doubles through 2050. The other imagined more aggressive greenhouse gas reductions — 70% by 2050 and “net zero” emissions by 2080.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For the purposes of seeing how bad things could plausibly get, the U.S. Geological Survey used a midlevel emissions scenario. This decision was based on detailed simulations into the next century of swell and waves along the Pacific Ocean. What the researchers found was that paradoxically, milder greenhouse gas levels generated worse storms for California’s coast than do extreme ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What’s really changed in the research community is that worst-case scenarios have become more common,” said Patrick Barnard, a research geologist with the agency. “The state is asking communities to prepare for these.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This approach helps waterfront areas learn to be more risk-averse to protect property and lives.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Avoiding mistakes of the past\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Foster City is paying a high price for waterfront sprawl. Like Treasure Island, the mid-Peninsula community 25 miles to the south was built entirely on landfill, not unusual in the Bay Area, where efforts to accommodate population growth stretching back to the Gold Rush consumed most of the wetlands and tidal marshes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Foster City did have worries about flooding decades ago. It is shot through with artificial waterways, including two sloughs, several small canals and an artificial lagoon. Barely above sea level before being developed, it would not exist if not for its levees and seawalls.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet, in 2014 FEMA informed Foster City officials that \u003ca href=\"https://fostercitylevee.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/coastal_flood_hazard_study.pdf\">new studies showed (PDF)\u003c/a> the levee system was neither strong nor tall enough to withstand a major storm and the large waves that would result. Update the seawalls and levees, or the entire city would be designated a floodplain, the agency said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sixty years ago, developers there hauled in tons of sand to raise the land several feet to construct thousands of homes in what became a 33,000-resident community. That was a time when climate change was not a part of city planning vernacular. Today workers are busy widening and raising levees and adding interlocking steel plates as a bulwark against the storms federal regulators warned of, as well as rising seas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Treasure Island, which is slated to add 8,000 units of housing to accommodate more than 20,000 residents, is still more than a decade away from build-out. What the engineers put in place there in the next few years could avoid Foster City’s mistakes — or compound them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be sure, some cities are starting to alter blueprints on pace with the evolving science. In October, the Port of San Francisco announced it was collaborating with the Army Corps of Engineers \u003ca href=\"https://sfport.com/files/2022-10/10112022_item_11a_draft_waterfront_adaptation_strategies_final.pdf\">to study how to shore up the city’s seawall along its eastern waterfront (PDF)\u003c/a>, from Fisherman’s Wharf to the Hunters Point Shipyard, to combat both sea rise and earthquake risk. This area includes attractions like the Chase Center sports arena, a project green-lighted before a city-commissioned study surfaced that predicted flooding from sea level rise in the new Mission Bay neighborhood, as \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/projects-sailed-through-despite-dire-flood-study/\">the Public Press reported in 2017\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Port officials now say they anticipate 7 feet of sea level rise by the end of the century. That is 2 feet, 5 inches higher than the level Treasure Island’s developers are planning for in their adaptation strategy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Port’s yearlong effort will consider elevating barriers along the Embarcadero, installing a system of locks at Mission Creek and buying back and cleaning up privately owned landfill areas around Islais Creek to return them to the tidal zone.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Not easy to abandon a home\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In the grips of a housing affordability crisis, San Francisco needs new construction. But is a flood zone the wisest place to build? That could depend on how long we expect buildings to last.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Barnard, of the U.S. Geological Survey, has traveled to many communities, including Okracoke Island, part of North Carolina’s Outer Banks, to assess how to protect people from storms. In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian shut the island down to visitors. For residents, it was hard to consider leaving a place they have inhabited for seven or eight generations. “You can’t detach people from their place, or their heart,” Barnard said. “They’ll stay until water is up to their nose.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before the developers moved in, Treasure Island had \u003ca href=\"https://censusreporter.org/profiles/15000US060750179031-bg-1-tract-17903-san-francisco-ca/\">roughly 3,000 residents, according to the 2020 Census\u003c/a>, many living in homes built for the U.S. Navy in the mid-20th century when it was a military base. Nearly half have a household income less than $50,000, and many do not speak English.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now these residents are on tenterhooks. Under an agreement with the developer, people who lived on Treasure Island before 2011 are guaranteed new affordable and rent-controlled units. But the wait times and other inconveniences have been tough. Everyone is living in a construction site with an unreliable electrical grid that browns and blacks out frequently.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982137\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982137\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Two people run in a residential area with their dog.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the existing low-lying homes on the island, built decades ago, will be razed to make room for new condos, as well as open space that developers say could be abandoned to bay waters as seas rise. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The new units are supposed to be comparable to what they had, but longtime islander Christoph Opperman said they have been offered “interim” units that, for example, might not have enough space for a family, or lack laundry facilities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re picking us off one neighborhood at a time by making us do two moves,” Opperman said. “We’re not entitled to just anything on the island, but we are entitled to fair treatment.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Treasure Island’s planners are essentially acknowledging that they must sacrifice part of the island to the bay, even while pursuing a more built-up urban environment just several hundred feet away. This combination of \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/researchers-abandon-neighborhoods-avoid-flood-zone-to-limit-sea-level-rise/\">advance and retreat\u003c/a> is all part of the plan, the engineers say.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asked whether he would move to Treasure Island, Trivedi did not hesitate to say yes, observing that no part of the Bay Area was completely free of danger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t see why not,” he said. “I mean, should people be moving to San Francisco, because of the seismic risk? Buildings are being designed to codes. And flooding is the same way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This reporting is supported by grants from the\u003ca href=\"https://www.solutionsjournalism.org/topics/business-and-sustainability\"> Solutions Journalism Network’s Business and Sustainability Initiative\u003c/a> and by the \u003ca href=\"http://fij.org/\">Fund for Investigative Journalism\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/\">Inside Climate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/newsletter/\">Sign up for the ICN newsletter here.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"One environmental model predicts that by 2100, stormwater could threaten a neighborhood now under construction. Protecting the community depends on extreme waterfront engineering decades into the future.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704846057,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["https://coastal.climatecentral.org/embed/map/13/-122.3736/37.8082/"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":89,"wordCount":4767},"headData":{"title":"Promising to Prevent Floods at Treasure Island, Builders Downplay Risk of Sea Rise | KQED","description":"One environmental model predicts that by 2100, stormwater could threaten a neighborhood now under construction. Protecting the community depends on extreme waterfront engineering decades into the future.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Promising to Prevent Floods at Treasure Island, Builders Downplay Risk of Sea Rise","datePublished":"2023-04-05T13:00:03.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:20:57.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Inside Climate News","sticky":false,"nprByline":"Kristi Coale\u003cbr>San Francisco Public Press","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","showOnAuthorArchivePages":"No","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1982130/promising-to-prevent-floods-at-treasure-island-builders-downplay-risk-of-sea-rise","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was reported by the \u003ca href=\"https://sfpublicpress.org/\">San Francisco Public Press\u003c/a>, an independent nonprofit newsroom focused on accountability journalism, in partnership with Inside Climate News.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sea level rise is forcing cities around San Francisco Bay to weigh demand for new housing against the need to protect communities from flooding. Builders say they can solve this dilemma with cutting-edge civil engineering. But no one knows whether their ambitious efforts will be enough to keep newly built waterfront real estate safe in coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, developers are busy building — and telling the public that they can mitigate this one effect of climate change, despite mounting evidence that it could be a bigger problem than previously believed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Treasure Island, a flat tract of 20th-century landfill with epic bay vistas, workers have poured the foundation for a 22-story tower, the first of six planned high-rise buildings, and broken ground on an affordable housing complex. Another, for families and unhoused veterans, is nearly complete. Townhomes, retail space and a waterfront transit hub are also in the pipeline. All told, the $6 billion development would be home to 20,000 people or more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Engineers for the public-private consortium transforming the island, Treasure Island Community Development, say they are pursuing aggressive sea rise adaptation strategies. Improvements include raising some of the land by several feet, preparing a buffer zone for future levees and pumps, and setting aside low-lying open space that could convert to floodable marshland as higher bay waters spill onshore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is not a cheap endeavor. The development group’s director, Bob Beck, did not return multiple emails and phone calls regarding costs for this work. A 2011 report by the city of San Francisco, which includes Treasure Island, estimated that “geotechnical stabilization” measures would cost $137 million. Storm drains, soil grading and landscape and open-space improvements would add about $120 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dilip Trivedi, the site’s project manager with international engineering firm Moffatt and Nichol, has been touting the consortium’s efforts for more than a decade. He said in a recent interview that the most built-up parts of the island should be safe from sea rise through at least 2070. Fifty years or so is a reasonable planning horizon for new developments, he added, and additional phased seawall construction can help future generations stay a step ahead of ever-higher tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“When you put together significant infrastructure, you don’t want to have to maintain it for about that time,” Trivedi said. “It is what we call project life.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982132\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982132\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"Two construction workers seen on the job on residential tower. \" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_03-1536x1025-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">After years of planning, construction has started on residential towers with sweeping views of San Francisco and the Bay Area. At least 20,000 residents are expected to live on the island by 2035. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists, however, commonly try to predict sea rise out at least to the year 2100, a time when some current schoolchildren could be octogenarian residents of the island.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Every contemporary climate model predicts that, even with deep carbon reductions starting this decade, several feet of sea rise are locked in. The debates for climate adaptation strategy are how many feet and how far down the road we should consider.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With ever more sophisticated climate predictions, the outlook for sea level rise has continued to darken, indicating that current trends will likely accelerate through the end of the century. In one pessimistic scenario — which researchers say is among the possibilities in a “business as usual” global greenhouse gas emissions future — much of the island could find itself underwater frequently, and some of the most developed areas could occasionally be threatened with flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To home in on Treasure Island’s future, the San Francisco Public Press asked researchers at the United States Geological Survey’s Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, based in Santa Cruz, to create a highly localized model of sea rise conditions under various climate scenarios. They found that bay waters could surge higher than the developers have long been saying publicly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In that model, by 2100 there is a small but not insignificant chance of 4 feet, 11 inches of sea level rise — slightly more than what the island’s engineers have accounted for. Adding in the effects of tides, weather and other transient events, such as in the kind of extreme storm seen once in a century, that total could be 2 feet, 11 inches higher.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The resulting surge would, at least temporarily, send waves 1 foot, 2 inches higher than the lowest ground floors of some planned housing complexes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982133\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px.png\" alt=\"Facing Sea Level Rise at Treasure Island\" width=\"700\" height=\"691\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px.png 700w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/SeaLevelRiseSchematic700px-160x158.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the project’s engineers never address this possibility in their public narratives, documents they have prepared show they have known about similar scenarios for years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Their own maps, which superimpose flood conditions on existing land elevations, line up fairly closely to the Geological Survey’s findings. Yet the engineers have chosen to downplay the likelihood of these outcomes as they pursued permits to build, arguing that novel construction technologies could make the development invulnerable to flooding under any reasonable course of events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a 2016 sea rise adaptation filing with a regional watershed agency, Moffatt and Nichol included six maps showing potential flood conditions in each construction phase, side by side with maps showing how the planned short- and long-term sea level rise protections would prevent inundation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One map shows 4 feet of sea rise. Before any land improvements, nearly the entire island would have been inundated — up to 8 feet in places — during flooding calculated by FEMA to have a 1% chance of occurring per year. Another part of that document showed a graph that indicated a 4-foot rise was possible by around 2093. The Geological Survey’s extreme scenario model for 2100 puts sea rise closer to 5 feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Trivedi said that the raising of the land under many of the buildings, plus additional shoreline improvements, would protect key infrastructure. Beside that map, the engineers showed how the existing 3.5-mile perimeter wall could be raised by 1 to 3 feet, depending on location, which they said would keep much of the island dry, although a note appended to the diagram said: “Does not show intentional flooding from managed retreat on northern and eastern shorelines — TBD.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Within the last year, regulators have started questioning whether the steps developers are taking are sufficient to guarantee that the island remains dry in the long term.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a community that will be around a while,” said Ethan Lavine, chief of permits for shoreline development for the Bay Conservation and Development Commission. “At a certain point in time, they will need levee protection.” Lavine’s office is pressing Trivedi and his colleagues to use a more cautious view of climate change when assessing whether Treasure Island’s flood prevention techniques can handle what nature might throw at them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When evaluating permit applications, government agencies require developers to reference the “best available science” to assess threats from climate change. In October 2021, the engineers issued an update to the 2016 filing. In it, Trivedi compared his firm’s sea level rise expectations against studies by several scientific bodies, including California’s Ocean Protection Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. His preferred predictions minimized the effect of the worst-case scenarios. The only needed change, he argued, would be to move up the time frame for planning adaptations by as much as five years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982134\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px.png\" alt=\"Fortifying Treasure Island\" width=\"750\" height=\"864\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px.png 750w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/TreasureIslandSFCA750px-160x184.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet climate policy experts point out that with significant scientific papers being released each year, guidance for builders has become a moving target. Because they admit a great deal of uncertainty in their predictions, scientists always publish their results in charts that consider an array of environmental assumptions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That gives developers leeway to choose which predictions to focus on when describing the risks to their capital investments. Treasure Island could be the most expensive local project in the region’s history to take advantage of this ambiguity.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Projecting optimism\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>All of Trivedi’s recent public statements conclude that the likelihood of the gloomiest climate scenarios is remote, and that the level of risk to property and lives is insignificant given the proposed engineering fixes. But a close examination of the 2021 adaptation plan offers a few reasons for concern:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>It dismisses high-end forecasts, in which global warming accelerates due to uncontrolled carbon emissions.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It selectively cites climate models that make planned infrastructure appear sufficient to virtually eliminate future flood risk.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>It focuses on relatively short time frames, such as 20 or 50 years, while offering little specificity about expected conditions at the end of the century, which falls within the lifetimes of some children alive today.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said in an interview that for planning purposes, he is focused on one recent predicted milestone: 3 feet of sea rise by 2080. In that circumstance, the ground floors of most buildings, to be built upon a now-elevated development pad, would still have a buffer of nearly 4 feet above the average highest tide of today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He also asserted that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a scientific committee organized by the United Nations, recently reported sea rise could be less severe than previously forecasted, based on the track record of recent years. “What has been observed is that sea level rise is not tracking” to the most pessimistic scenarios, he said. But there are reasons to question his conclusion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The localized scenario for 2100 examined by the Geological Survey — the one resulting in water levels 1 foot, 2 inches above some developed areas — relies on a climate change prediction assessed to have a probability of 0.5%, that is, a 1-in-200 statistical chance of occurring. That prediction was published by the California Ocean Protection Council, a body of experts organized by the state government, in recent guidelines for community planning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said the international group’s current report indicates there’s “low confidence in that scenario happening.” When asked for a citation to back up this claim, Trivedi referenced a “localized model” of the findings from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and five other federal agencies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html\">report these agencies jointly issued in February 2022\u003c/a> in fact gave a more nuanced view. In a section titled “Future Mean Sea Level,” the authors did exclude one scenario used by the Ocean Protection Council that had been labeled “extreme” and not given a numerical probability. But that is not the scenario Trivedi said the group ruled out. This same report indicates that the West Coast is likely to see 4 to 8 inches of rise over 30 years, accelerating later in the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Regardless of the pace of the increase, Treasure Island developers say they have contingency plans relying on future residents or taxpayers to fund the construction of progressively higher walls around the urban zone — several feet every few decades. In its latest update, Moffatt and Nichol said sea level rise of 1 foot by 2043 would trigger the plan to elevate the perimeter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A strategy reliant on levees might seem risky in light of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when faulty engineering of levees led to catastrophic flooding of parts of New Orleans that sit below the level of the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico. In light of this recent history, Bay Area regulators are starting to ask whether the Treasure Island plan is entirely watertight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A March 2022 letter from the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the agency that issued the island’s 2016 permit for waterfront areas, called the update too optimistic and tolerant of long-term flooding potential.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Public access along a shoreline and a big mixed-use development require using a medium-to-high-risk projection for sea level rise,” said the commission’s planning manager, Erik Buehmann.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Reengineering shaky ground\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>On an island built by the government generations ago out of rocks, soil and dredged sand, preparing high-and-dry land would be difficult even if it were not in an earthquake and tsunami zone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In numerous reports and public presentations, Trivedi has said construction workers have elevated land on the 100-acre development pad to 3 feet, 6 inches above the “base flood elevation” — a height calculated by Federal Emergency Management Agency representing a 1% chance of flooding each year. The homes, hotels and businesses there will be set back from the shoreline by 200 to 300 feet on most sides and as much as 1,000 feet from the northern shore because that area is more prone to flooding. Building is planned to roll out in phases through 2035.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Workers have spent years using cranes to repeatedly drop heavy weights to compact the soil. They have driven vibrating probes into the earth, filling the holes with concrete for stabilization. They then piled 1 million cubic yards of soil atop the compacted layer. These measures are intended to prevent the kind of ground liquefaction seen in the Marina District and elsewhere during the devastating 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Other geological improvements include inserting vertical wick drains, akin to long drinking straws, to help remove water from the soil as it compresses. These techniques have been used by civil engineers around the world for more than 30 years to develop areas without easy access to bedrock.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982135\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982135\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A view of compacted yards of soil.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_07-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Developers have trucked in and compacted 1 million cubic yards of soil to raise the land underneath new buildings in one strategy to mitigate flood risk. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Trivedi said these measures, together with a jagged, rocky seawall raised to allow for just over 1 foot of sea rise, would help take energy out of large waves, and the setback would use the landscape to dissipate any possible overtopping before it reaches valuable structures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the same time, the engineers have recognized that much of the island — particularly the low-lying northern end — are indefensible. Areas that have flooded in the past will eventually be sacrificed to rising waters. That strategy has immediate, concrete consequences: Dozens of existing structures, including homes of about 3,000 people currently living there, are set to be demolished to create open space. Over time these areas could be turned into tidal marshland to protect the newly developed areas from storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Regulators balk at a sunny assessment\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the agency most empowered to weigh in on new waterfront building, is hamstrung by a legal mandate to regulate only what happens 100 feet inland, regardless of elevation — an artifact of legislation dating from before climate change was a dominant concern.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 2016 permit the agency issued for improvements on Treasure Island’s margins, including a ferry terminal, required adaptation updates every five years. Moffatt and Nichol’s 2021 update concluded that the original adaptation plans needed few changes, except for possibly needing to accelerate, by five years, the planning process for building higher perimeter levees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Regulators balked at the assessment. In a March 2022 letter, the commission advised Moffatt and Nichol to plan more conservatively. The agency demanded consideration of a 1-in-200 chance sea rise scenario, in which seas rise 6 feet, 11 inches by 2100. Adding in a 100-year storm surge, waves could plausibly overtop portions of the sea wall along the southeastern side by about 1 to 2 feet, and along the northern end by about 1 foot. That is an even worse outcome than that predicted by Geological Survey’s localized flooding model.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The commission said Moffatt and Nichol seemed too dismissive of chances that things could go wrong.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The permittees decided to design the project considering very low risk of sea level rise related impacts” the letter said, noting also that engineers seemed too focused on the short time horizon of 2080.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trivedi counters that the Treasure Island development was never built upon projections of a certain sea level happening by a certain date, because seawalls can, for all practical purposes, be built arbitrarily high, on whatever schedule is needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We adopted an approach where we decided on an allowance we are building into the project,” he said in the interview. “As future projections come out, we will adjust the date of the adaptation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Commission staff met with planners from Moffatt and Nichol last summer to work out the requested additions to the 2021 adaptation strategy. Buehmann, who worked on the original permit, said follow-up discussions were to be expected because the Treasure Island permit was the first since the commission began requiring builders to submit sea rise assessments. “We didn’t expect it to be perfect the first time,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Whatever comes of this process which Trivedi referred to as merely “an internal thing” that was required for the filing — the adaptation plan is unlikely to change significantly, because the development pad is already in place and huge construction cranes are sprouting up on Treasure Island’s skyline. What is left in the playbook is raising future seawalls, ceding the northern open space and the installation of pumps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Government officials have long acknowledged the inevitability of Treasure Island’s relying on artificial barriers. In 2015, Brad McCrea, regulatory program director at the commission, \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/major-s-f-bayfront-developments-advance-despite-sea-rise-warnings/\">told the Public Press\u003c/a>: “At the end of the day, this will be a levee-protected community — there’s no getting around that.” Since then, agency staff have not changed their view.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Rapidly outdated climate science\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>To determine how high to raise the building pad, Treasure Island builders consulted several climate studies published as early as 1987 and as recently as 2007. At that point, scientists were predicting that by 2100, oceans could rise as much as 4 feet, 7 inches.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This forecast was echoed by a state panel of scientists and policy experts in 2009, when then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger visited Treasure Island to announce its findings and call for better sea level rise mitigation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982136\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982136\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A view of the San Francisco skyline from Treasure Island.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_09-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">When finished, Treasure Island could be a spectacular locale for commuters to San Francisco to settle. But residents will face similar flooding challenges to those in waterfront communities throughout the Bay Area. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Moffatt and Nichol then relied on these studies to anticipate that the oceans would rise 3 feet by 2075. So the company proposed raising the development pad to 3 feet, 6 inches above the predicted levels for a once-in-a-hundred-year flood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Moffatt and Nichol did not spell out a rationale for setting the height of the development pad, as the \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/uncertain-about-rising-seas-developers-using-mid-range-estimate-to-build-up-island/\">Public Press reported in 2010\u003c/a>. The firm did argue that raising it higher could create other problems, such as jeopardizing the island’s stability under the weight of packed soil and adding expense. “At some point it doesn’t become cost-effective — it’s a matter of acceptable levels of risk over your planning horizon,” Trivedi said in an interview then.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be sure, when Treasure Island plans were drawn up, scientific modeling showed wide uncertainty about how much global temperatures could increase. In 2009, scientists around the world were saying that oceans could rise anywhere from a minimum of 3 feet, 3 inches to a maximum of 4 feet, 11 inches by 2100. At that time, the effects of ice melt from land via glaciers, snowpacks and ice caps were little understood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, European and U.S. scientists using satellite imagery to measure the shape of Greenland’s ice sheets say melting is outstripping gains from snowfall. In \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2\">a paper published last August\u003c/a>, they found that no matter how much countries curb emissions, seas will rise by a minimum of 11 inches from this effect alone.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Focusing locally\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The U.S. Geological Survey developed the \u003ca href=\"https://ourcoastourfuture.org/science-and-modeling/\">Coastal Storm Modeling System\u003c/a> to help protect waterfront communities. It simulates \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-40742-z#MOESM1\">the forces behind wave and wind data and translates them into local flood projections\u003c/a> that include tides, storm surges, waves and seasonal events such as El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Public Press requested that the agency simulate a small section of San Francisco Bay, in the vicinity of Treasure Island, relying on probability scenarios for global sea levels in 2100 developed by the \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/opc-climate-change-program/sea-level-rise-2/\">California Ocean Protection Council\u003c/a> in \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/agenda_items/20180314/Item3_Exhibit-A_OPC_SLR_Guidance-rd3.pdf\">a 2018 guidance paper (PDF)\u003c/a>. This report offered up sea rise projections of likelihoods as high as 50% and as low as 0.5%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Ocean Protection Council’s examination of a wide array of probabilities heavily influenced the Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s critique of the Treasure Island adaptation update. The commission’s biggest concern was that change might happen faster than the engineers were anticipating.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" allow=\"fullscreen 'none'\" frameborder=\"0\" src=\"https://coastal.climatecentral.org/embed/map/13/-122.3736/37.8082/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&water_level=7.8&water_unit=ft\" width=\"100%\" height=\"450\" title=\"Climate Central | Land below 7.8 feet of water\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cstrong>Explore sea level rise scenarios using \u003ca href=\"https://climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a>’s interactive tool. Here we show floodwaters at 7.8 feet above the present-day high tide line.\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Trivedi said the Ocean Protection Council’s past predictions had already failed. “If you look at the year 2022 projections, follow the OPC formulas,” Trivedi said. “We should have seen about 8 inches of sea level rise since 2000. In reality, it has been about 2 inches or less.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most forecasts predict increased global temperatures due to persistent carbon pollution. But the emissions projections are still hotly contested.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Ocean Protection Council examined two emissions scenarios. \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200804085912.htm\">One assumed that\u003c/a> carbon dioxide output doubles through 2050. The other imagined more aggressive greenhouse gas reductions — 70% by 2050 and “net zero” emissions by 2080.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For the purposes of seeing how bad things could plausibly get, the U.S. Geological Survey used a midlevel emissions scenario. This decision was based on detailed simulations into the next century of swell and waves along the Pacific Ocean. What the researchers found was that paradoxically, milder greenhouse gas levels generated worse storms for California’s coast than do extreme ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What’s really changed in the research community is that worst-case scenarios have become more common,” said Patrick Barnard, a research geologist with the agency. “The state is asking communities to prepare for these.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This approach helps waterfront areas learn to be more risk-averse to protect property and lives.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Avoiding mistakes of the past\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Foster City is paying a high price for waterfront sprawl. Like Treasure Island, the mid-Peninsula community 25 miles to the south was built entirely on landfill, not unusual in the Bay Area, where efforts to accommodate population growth stretching back to the Gold Rush consumed most of the wetlands and tidal marshes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Foster City did have worries about flooding decades ago. It is shot through with artificial waterways, including two sloughs, several small canals and an artificial lagoon. Barely above sea level before being developed, it would not exist if not for its levees and seawalls.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet, in 2014 FEMA informed Foster City officials that \u003ca href=\"https://fostercitylevee.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/coastal_flood_hazard_study.pdf\">new studies showed (PDF)\u003c/a> the levee system was neither strong nor tall enough to withstand a major storm and the large waves that would result. Update the seawalls and levees, or the entire city would be designated a floodplain, the agency said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sixty years ago, developers there hauled in tons of sand to raise the land several feet to construct thousands of homes in what became a 33,000-resident community. That was a time when climate change was not a part of city planning vernacular. Today workers are busy widening and raising levees and adding interlocking steel plates as a bulwark against the storms federal regulators warned of, as well as rising seas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Treasure Island, which is slated to add 8,000 units of housing to accommodate more than 20,000 residents, is still more than a decade away from build-out. What the engineers put in place there in the next few years could avoid Foster City’s mistakes — or compound them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be sure, some cities are starting to alter blueprints on pace with the evolving science. In October, the Port of San Francisco announced it was collaborating with the Army Corps of Engineers \u003ca href=\"https://sfport.com/files/2022-10/10112022_item_11a_draft_waterfront_adaptation_strategies_final.pdf\">to study how to shore up the city’s seawall along its eastern waterfront (PDF)\u003c/a>, from Fisherman’s Wharf to the Hunters Point Shipyard, to combat both sea rise and earthquake risk. This area includes attractions like the Chase Center sports arena, a project green-lighted before a city-commissioned study surfaced that predicted flooding from sea level rise in the new Mission Bay neighborhood, as \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/projects-sailed-through-despite-dire-flood-study/\">the Public Press reported in 2017\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Port officials now say they anticipate 7 feet of sea level rise by the end of the century. That is 2 feet, 5 inches higher than the level Treasure Island’s developers are planning for in their adaptation strategy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Port’s yearlong effort will consider elevating barriers along the Embarcadero, installing a system of locks at Mission Creek and buying back and cleaning up privately owned landfill areas around Islais Creek to return them to the tidal zone.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Not easy to abandon a home\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In the grips of a housing affordability crisis, San Francisco needs new construction. But is a flood zone the wisest place to build? That could depend on how long we expect buildings to last.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Barnard, of the U.S. Geological Survey, has traveled to many communities, including Okracoke Island, part of North Carolina’s Outer Banks, to assess how to protect people from storms. In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian shut the island down to visitors. For residents, it was hard to consider leaving a place they have inhabited for seven or eight generations. “You can’t detach people from their place, or their heart,” Barnard said. “They’ll stay until water is up to their nose.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before the developers moved in, Treasure Island had \u003ca href=\"https://censusreporter.org/profiles/15000US060750179031-bg-1-tract-17903-san-francisco-ca/\">roughly 3,000 residents, according to the 2020 Census\u003c/a>, many living in homes built for the U.S. Navy in the mid-20th century when it was a military base. Nearly half have a household income less than $50,000, and many do not speak English.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now these residents are on tenterhooks. Under an agreement with the developer, people who lived on Treasure Island before 2011 are guaranteed new affordable and rent-controlled units. But the wait times and other inconveniences have been tough. Everyone is living in a construction site with an unreliable electrical grid that browns and blacks out frequently.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982137\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982137\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Two people run in a residential area with their dog.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/04/Treasure_Island_12-1536x1024-1.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the existing low-lying homes on the island, built decades ago, will be razed to make room for new condos, as well as open space that developers say could be abandoned to bay waters as seas rise. \u003ccite>(Yesica Prado/San Francisco Public Press)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The new units are supposed to be comparable to what they had, but longtime islander Christoph Opperman said they have been offered “interim” units that, for example, might not have enough space for a family, or lack laundry facilities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re picking us off one neighborhood at a time by making us do two moves,” Opperman said. “We’re not entitled to just anything on the island, but we are entitled to fair treatment.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Treasure Island’s planners are essentially acknowledging that they must sacrifice part of the island to the bay, even while pursuing a more built-up urban environment just several hundred feet away. This combination of \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfpublicpress.org/researchers-abandon-neighborhoods-avoid-flood-zone-to-limit-sea-level-rise/\">advance and retreat\u003c/a> is all part of the plan, the engineers say.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asked whether he would move to Treasure Island, Trivedi did not hesitate to say yes, observing that no part of the Bay Area was completely free of danger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t see why not,” he said. “I mean, should people be moving to San Francisco, because of the seismic risk? Buildings are being designed to codes. And flooding is the same way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This reporting is supported by grants from the\u003ca href=\"https://www.solutionsjournalism.org/topics/business-and-sustainability\"> Solutions Journalism Network’s Business and Sustainability Initiative\u003c/a> and by the \u003ca href=\"http://fij.org/\">Fund for Investigative Journalism\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/\">Inside Climate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/newsletter/\">Sign up for the ICN newsletter here.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1982130/promising-to-prevent-floods-at-treasure-island-builders-downplay-risk-of-sea-rise","authors":["byline_science_1982130"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_2455","science_194","science_460","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1982131","label":"source_science_1982130"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.","airtime":"SUN 2pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.possible.fm/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Possible"},"link":"/radio/program/possible","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/possible/id1677184070","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"}},"1a":{"id":"1a","title":"1A","info":"1A is home to the national conversation. 1A brings on great guests and frames the best debate in ways that make you think, share and engage.","airtime":"MON-THU 11pm-12am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/1a.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://the1a.org/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/1a","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=1188724250&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/1A-p947376/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510316/podcast.xml"}},"all-things-considered":{"id":"all-things-considered","title":"All Things Considered","info":"Every weekday, \u003cem>All Things Considered\u003c/em> hosts Robert Siegel, Audie Cornish, Ari Shapiro, and Kelly McEvers present the program's trademark mix of news, interviews, commentaries, reviews, and offbeat features. Michel Martin hosts on the weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 1pm-2pm, 4:30pm-6:30pm\u003cbr />SAT-SUN 5pm-6pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/All-Things-Considered-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.npr.org/programs/all-things-considered/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/all-things-considered"},"american-suburb-podcast":{"id":"american-suburb-podcast","title":"American Suburb: The Podcast","tagline":"The flip side of gentrification, told through one town","info":"Gentrification is changing cities across America, forcing people from neighborhoods they have long called home. Call them the displaced. Now those priced out of the Bay Area are looking for a better life in an unlikely place. American Suburb follows this migration to one California town along the Delta, 45 miles from San Francisco. But is this once sleepy suburb ready for them?","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/American-Suburb-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"13"},"link":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?mt=2&id=1287748328","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/American-Suburb-p1086805/","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkMzMDExODgxNjA5"}},"baycurious":{"id":"baycurious","title":"Bay Curious","tagline":"Exploring the Bay Area, one question at a time","info":"KQED’s new podcast, Bay Curious, gets to the bottom of the mysteries — both profound and peculiar — that give the Bay Area its unique identity. And we’ll do it with your help! You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. As a non-partisan forum, The Club brings to the public airwaves diverse viewpoints on important topics. The Club's weekly radio broadcast - the oldest in the U.S., dating back to 1924 - is carried across the nation on public radio stations and is now podcasting. Our website archive features audio of our recent programs, as well as selected speeches from our long and distinguished history. This podcast feed is usually updated twice a week and is always un-edited.","airtime":"THU 10pm, FRI 1am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Commonwealth-Club-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.commonwealthclub.org/podcasts","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Commonwealth Club of California"},"link":"/radio/program/commonwealth-club","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/commonwealth-club-of-california-podcast/id976334034?mt=2","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5jb21tb253ZWFsdGhjbHViLm9yZy9hdWRpby9wb2RjYXN0L3dlZWtseS54bWw","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Commonwealth-Club-of-California-p1060/"}},"considerthis":{"id":"considerthis","title":"Consider This","tagline":"Make sense of the day","info":"Make sense of the day. Every weekday afternoon, Consider This helps you consider the major stories of the day in less than 15 minutes, featuring the reporting and storytelling resources of NPR. Plus, KQED’s Bianca Taylor brings you the local KQED news you need to know.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Consider-This-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"Consider This from NPR and KQED","officialWebsiteLink":"/podcasts/considerthis","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"7"},"link":"/podcasts/considerthis","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1503226625?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/coronavirusdaily","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5ucHIub3JnLzUxMDM1NS9wb2RjYXN0LnhtbA","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3Z6JdCS2d0eFEpXHKI6WqH"}},"forum":{"id":"forum","title":"Forum","tagline":"The conversation starts here","info":"KQED’s live call-in program discussing local, state, national and international issues, as well as in-depth interviews.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9am-11am, 10pm-11pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Forum-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED Forum with Mina Kim and Alexis Madrigal","officialWebsiteLink":"/forum","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"8"},"link":"/forum","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/kqeds-forum/id73329719","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM5NTU3MzgxNjMz","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/432307980/forum","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqedfm-kqeds-forum-podcast","rss":"https://feeds.megaphone.fm/KQINC9557381633"}},"freakonomics-radio":{"id":"freakonomics-radio","title":"Freakonomics Radio","info":"Freakonomics Radio is a one-hour award-winning podcast and public-radio project hosted by Stephen Dubner, with co-author Steve Levitt as a regular guest. 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One of public radio's most popular programs, Fresh Air features intimate conversations with today's biggest luminaries.","airtime":"MON-FRI 7pm-8pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Fresh-Air-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.npr.org/programs/fresh-air/","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/fresh-air","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/4s8b","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=214089682&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Fresh-Air-p17/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/381444908/podcast.xml"}},"here-and-now":{"id":"here-and-now","title":"Here & Now","info":"A live production of NPR and WBUR Boston, in collaboration with stations across the country, Here & Now reflects the fluid world of news as it's happening in the middle of the day, with timely, in-depth news, interviews and conversation. 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