Bay Area Weather: Cold Storm Surprises Region With Snow and Chill
San Francisco’s Hunky Jesus Contest to Happen Rain or Shine
Holiday Weekend Storms On Tap Could Bring Flooding to the Bay Area
North Bay Expecting Heavy Rains, Swelling Rivers, Possible Flooding
Will El Niño’s Return Mean Rain and Snow for California's 2023 Winter?
Rivers in the Sky: What You Need to Know About Atmospheric River Storms
Newsom Declares Drought Emergency Across California
580 Billion Gallons. That's How Much Water Was Added to Reservoirs by Recent Storms
Bay Area Gets Some Rain But Wildfire Risk Remains High
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[pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation=\"Matt Mehle, meteorologist, National Weather Service Bay Area office\"]‘The snow will probably be most notable for people living in the East Bay, the heart of the Bay Area.’[/pullquote]“The snow will probably be most notable for people living in the East Bay, the heart of the Bay Area,” said Matt Mehle, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As temperatures drop Thursday and Friday evenings, forecasters said rain could turn into snow, and temperatures on Thursday afternoon will struggle to warm above the mid-50s in lowlands and above 30 degrees in higher terrain. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937103/warming-shelters-flood-bomb-cyclone-storm-bay-area\">Meteorologists warn that near-freezing temperatures could negatively impact unhoused people.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Up in the Sierra Nevada, as much as 1 foot of snow could fall across the highest elevations, once again \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937204/lake-tahoe-weather-forecast-road-conditions-snow-chains\">complicating travel on mountain passes\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Getting cold systems like this down into California is not uncommon; what’s uncommon is to get it at this time of year,” Mehle said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>A storm bringing more snow than rain?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The late-season cold storm is traveling south from the Gulf of Alaska, and forecasters don’t expect the storm to produce gobs of rain, wind or flooding — less than an inch of rain across the region is predicted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But meteorologists do expect up to a foot of snow along the Central Coast in the mountains near Big Sur.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you encounter snow, definitely drive slower,” Mehle said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/DrewTumaABC7/status/1775908152904659372?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service has not issued a wind advisory, but Mehle warns wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible throughout the Bay Area over the next 24 hours. He said the agency is also working with government partners to ensure \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937103/warming-shelters-flood-bomb-cyclone-storm-bay-area\">warming centers are open for unhoused people \u003c/a>to escape the wintery conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Temperatures will remain below normal all the way into the upcoming weekend,” Mehle said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meteorologists forecast the rain and wind to taper off late Friday and Saturday, but cold temperatures will linger into the weekend.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/CALFIRECZU/status/1775935116910735731?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The weather pattern could also drop up to 1 foot of snow across the highest points in the Sierra Nevada, especially south of Highway 50, said Idamis Shoemaker, a National Weather Service meteorologist with the agency’s Sacramento office. [aside postID=science_1991866 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/CaliWeather318-1020x680.jpg']Shoemaker said people traveling in the Sierra this week should carry chains and be prepared for snow-covered roads and travel delays. She also warned that we “could see snow levels lowering down into the upper foothills.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The cold storms also bring thunderstorm potential. Shoemaker said that could mean lightning, gusty winds, small hail and funnel clouds at lower elevations, especially in the Sacramento Valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Looking ahead, there’s a slight chance of scattered showers over the weekend before warm and dry weather returns next week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Warmer than average temps may be in the cards by mid-April,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/Weather_West/status/1775567128407450068?s=20\">in a post on X\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Forecasters say a late-season cold weather pattern will bring not just snow to Bay Area peaks but also near-freezing temperatures in major metropolitan areas, bringing challenges for unhoused residents.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1712337530,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":17,"wordCount":601},"headData":{"title":"Bay Area Weather: Cold Storm Surprises Region With Snow and Chill | KQED","description":"Forecasters say a late-season cold weather pattern will bring not just snow to Bay Area peaks but also near-freezing temperatures in major metropolitan areas, bringing challenges for unhoused residents.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1992243/bay-area-weather-cold-storm-surprises-region-with-snow-and-chill","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Winter is temporarily back — and fat snowflakes were already seen falling onto Mount Tamalpais, Mount Diablo and Mount Hamilton in Marin, Contra Costa and Santa Clara counties on Thursday morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wintery conditions could last through Saturday as a cold storm moves through the region and may continue to whiten our highest peaks with a few inches of snow across the Bay Area and Central Coast. \u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘The snow will probably be most notable for people living in the East Bay, the heart of the Bay Area.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Matt Mehle, meteorologist, National Weather Service Bay Area office","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“The snow will probably be most notable for people living in the East Bay, the heart of the Bay Area,” said Matt Mehle, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As temperatures drop Thursday and Friday evenings, forecasters said rain could turn into snow, and temperatures on Thursday afternoon will struggle to warm above the mid-50s in lowlands and above 30 degrees in higher terrain. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937103/warming-shelters-flood-bomb-cyclone-storm-bay-area\">Meteorologists warn that near-freezing temperatures could negatively impact unhoused people.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Up in the Sierra Nevada, as much as 1 foot of snow could fall across the highest elevations, once again \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937204/lake-tahoe-weather-forecast-road-conditions-snow-chains\">complicating travel on mountain passes\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Getting cold systems like this down into California is not uncommon; what’s uncommon is to get it at this time of year,” Mehle said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>A storm bringing more snow than rain?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The late-season cold storm is traveling south from the Gulf of Alaska, and forecasters don’t expect the storm to produce gobs of rain, wind or flooding — less than an inch of rain across the region is predicted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But meteorologists do expect up to a foot of snow along the Central Coast in the mountains near Big Sur.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you encounter snow, definitely drive slower,” Mehle said.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1775908152904659372"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service has not issued a wind advisory, but Mehle warns wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible throughout the Bay Area over the next 24 hours. He said the agency is also working with government partners to ensure \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937103/warming-shelters-flood-bomb-cyclone-storm-bay-area\">warming centers are open for unhoused people \u003c/a>to escape the wintery conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Temperatures will remain below normal all the way into the upcoming weekend,” Mehle said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meteorologists forecast the rain and wind to taper off late Friday and Saturday, but cold temperatures will linger into the weekend.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1775935116910735731"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>The weather pattern could also drop up to 1 foot of snow across the highest points in the Sierra Nevada, especially south of Highway 50, said Idamis Shoemaker, a National Weather Service meteorologist with the agency’s Sacramento office. \u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"science_1991866","hero":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/CaliWeather318-1020x680.jpg","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Shoemaker said people traveling in the Sierra this week should carry chains and be prepared for snow-covered roads and travel delays. She also warned that we “could see snow levels lowering down into the upper foothills.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The cold storms also bring thunderstorm potential. Shoemaker said that could mean lightning, gusty winds, small hail and funnel clouds at lower elevations, especially in the Sacramento Valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Looking ahead, there’s a slight chance of scattered showers over the weekend before warm and dry weather returns next week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Warmer than average temps may be in the cards by mid-April,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/Weather_West/status/1775567128407450068?s=20\">in a post on X\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1992243/bay-area-weather-cold-storm-surprises-region-with-snow-and-chill","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_4992","science_2924","science_4414","science_1213","science_109","science_107","science_365"],"featImg":"science_1992251","label":"science"},"science_1992138":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1992138","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1992138","score":null,"sort":[1711738053000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"san-franciscos-hunky-jesus-contest-to-happen-rain-or-shine","title":"San Francisco’s Hunky Jesus Contest to Happen Rain or Shine","publishDate":1711738053,"format":"standard","headTitle":"San Francisco’s Hunky Jesus Contest to Happen Rain or Shine | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Sexy Jesus. Seductive Virgin Mary. Swarms of people drinking hard seltzers at San Francisco’s “gay beach.” Cloudbursts and a wet Dolores Park.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s a tale that may unfold this weekend in San Francisco on Sunday during the \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/events/mission-dolores-park/easter-in-the-park-hunky-jesus-foxy-mary-contest/847951957131540/\">Hunky Jesus and Foxy Mary Contest\u003c/a>, organized by the nonprofit Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence.[pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation=\"Daniel Dissett, Brother Sinthetic Soul, Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence\"]‘The humor that we manifest helps break down barriers and allows us to have conversations with people that we might not be able to have otherwise.’[/pullquote]“The event happens rain or shine,” said Daniel Dissett, otherwise known as Brother Sinthetic Soul. “We don’t have any kind of contingency plans.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The annual event could get complicated since forecasters predict light to moderate rain, thunderstorms and strong winds all weekend. The good news is that the storm will likely taper out by Sunday, hopefully before the event starts at 10 a.m., with a family-friendly children’s Easter program in the northeast section of Dolores Park.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The adult-friendly competition begins at noon. People dressed as hunky “replicas” of Jesus or foxy “versions” of the Virgin Mary compete at 3 p.m.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The humor that we manifest helps break down barriers and allows us to have conversations with people that we might not be able to have otherwise,” Dissett said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What’s the current San Francisco weather forecast for this weekend?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>At this point, meteorologists expect rain to fall in the early morning hours on Sunday with isolated showers the rest of the day, said National Weather Service Bay Area meteorologist Rachel Kennedy, potentially allowing Hunky Jesus lovers to enjoy clear skies and a soggy lawn to party on.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The storm could also help deepen the state’s snowpack, supplying millions of Californians and farms with water as it melts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"#californiasnowpack\">Jump to more information about California’s snowpack.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1992156\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2202px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1992156\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2202\" height=\"1468\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375.jpg 2202w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2202px) 100vw, 2202px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Participants celebrating in the sunshine at a previous Hunky Jesus and Foxy Mary contest in Dolores Park in San Francisco. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of Gareth Gooch, Gooch Photography)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“People on Sunday are lucking out because it looks like the worst of it will be on Friday and Saturday,” Kennedy said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco also just got even luckier thanks to a midweek storm that pushed the city to 111% of the yearly average rainfall it receives, Kennedy said. Most of the Bay Area is also in a similar situation, receiving between 90% and 100% of the average rainfall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This storm could drop up to 1 1/2 inches of rain and produce up to 40 mph gusts across the Bay Area. On Friday and Saturday, there’s also a chance of nuisance flooding throughout the region, but Kennedy said rivers aren’t likely to overflow.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What if it rains hard on Easter Sunday in San Francisco?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>If the clouds burst open Sunday and the event can’t happen because it’s raining too hard, Dissett said the organization will postpone the event and hold it on a smaller scale at a local bar the coming weekend. You can follow event updates online on \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/events/847951957131540/?active_tab=discussion\">Facebook\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.instagram.com/sfsisters/?hl=en\">Instagram\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1992158\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2202px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1992158\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2202\" height=\"1468\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815.jpg 2202w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2202px) 100vw, 2202px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This year’s Hunky Jesus and Foxy Mary contest hosted by the nonprofit the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence will happen rain or shine. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of Gareth Gooch, Gooch Photography)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Whether it rains or not, Dissett recommends that people attending bring umbrellas, coverings to congregate under and something to put on the ground to keep from getting wet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Parking in the neighborhood around Dolores Park is limited, so the organization suggests walking, biking or using public transportation to get to the event. The organizers offer ADA parking, which can be obtained by calling 415-506-9848 or emailing easterinfo@thesisters.org.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>(Organizers say that while “nudity and profanity are prohibited, \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/events/mission-dolores-park/easter-in-the-park-hunky-jesus-foxy-mary-contest/847951957131540/\">some may find the Sisters’ trademark irreverence inappropriate for young children\u003c/a>.”)\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Who are the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.thesisters.org/\">The Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence\u003c/a> is an “order of queer and trans nuns who believe all people have a right to express their unique joy and beauty,” according to their site. They first appeared in San Francisco in 1979 on Easter Sunday. This year marks the organization’s 45th anniversary.[pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation=\"Daniel Dissett, Brother Sinthetic Soul, Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence\"]‘We’re all about spreading joy, helping marginalized communities and alleviating shame that people seem to have as part of the human condition that we feel is unnecessary.’[/pullquote]\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/tag/sisters-of-perpetual-indulgence\">The order is devoted to community service and outreach\u003c/a> “to those on the edges and to promoting human rights, respect for diversity and spiritual enlightenment.” The group is known for using humor and “irreverent wit to expose the forces of bigotry, complacency, and guilt that chain the human spirit.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In May 2023, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/13929331/sisters-perpetual-indulgence-pride-la-dodgers-mlb-roma\">the Sisters made national headlines by protesting the Los Angeles Dodgers’ decision\u003c/a> to uninvite the organization from the team’s Pride Night — a decision that was eventually reversed, in a move that prominent order member Sister Roma called “a true testament to the power of truth over lies, knowledge over ignorance, and love over hate.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re all about spreading joy, helping marginalized communities and alleviating shame that people seem to have as part of the human condition that we feel is unnecessary,” Dissett said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"californiasnowpack\">\u003c/a>Good news for California’s Snowpack?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1773753233384612334\">The storm will also reach the Sierra Nevada on Friday\u003c/a>, and meteorologists said up to 3 feet of snow could fall on the highest peaks throughout the weekend, complicating travel over mountain passes.[aside label='More on Weather' tag='weather']Scott Rowe, senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento, said an extra couple of feet of snow is great news for the California snowpack, which is \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action\">at 104% of the average for this time of year\u003c/a>. The snowpack’s height is recorded on April 1, and this weekend’s storm will likely add a couple of percentage points to the already above-average year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In his latest weather post, \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/archives/38288\">UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain wrote that this average water year is “something of a feat”\u003c/a> because recent years have often been “characterized by either very low or very high snowpack.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This weekend’s storm won’t be extreme by any means, but it will be respectable by late March standards,” he wrote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After several days of dry weather, another storm could be in the picture by the end of next week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s a little bit of uncertainty as to what’s going to happen,” Rowe said. “Some forecast models are suggesting maybe some light rain.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"San Francisco’s Hunky Jesus and Foxy Mary Contest hosted by the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence will take place Sunday, no matter rain or shine, as a storm passes over the region this weekend.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1712000539,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":25,"wordCount":1163},"headData":{"title":"San Francisco’s Hunky Jesus Contest to Happen Rain or Shine | KQED","description":"San Francisco’s Hunky Jesus and Foxy Mary Contest hosted by the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence will take place Sunday, no matter rain or shine, as a storm passes over the region this weekend.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"San Francisco","sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1992138/san-franciscos-hunky-jesus-contest-to-happen-rain-or-shine","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Sexy Jesus. Seductive Virgin Mary. Swarms of people drinking hard seltzers at San Francisco’s “gay beach.” Cloudbursts and a wet Dolores Park.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s a tale that may unfold this weekend in San Francisco on Sunday during the \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/events/mission-dolores-park/easter-in-the-park-hunky-jesus-foxy-mary-contest/847951957131540/\">Hunky Jesus and Foxy Mary Contest\u003c/a>, organized by the nonprofit Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘The humor that we manifest helps break down barriers and allows us to have conversations with people that we might not be able to have otherwise.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Daniel Dissett, Brother Sinthetic Soul, Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“The event happens rain or shine,” said Daniel Dissett, otherwise known as Brother Sinthetic Soul. “We don’t have any kind of contingency plans.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The annual event could get complicated since forecasters predict light to moderate rain, thunderstorms and strong winds all weekend. The good news is that the storm will likely taper out by Sunday, hopefully before the event starts at 10 a.m., with a family-friendly children’s Easter program in the northeast section of Dolores Park.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The adult-friendly competition begins at noon. People dressed as hunky “replicas” of Jesus or foxy “versions” of the Virgin Mary compete at 3 p.m.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The humor that we manifest helps break down barriers and allows us to have conversations with people that we might not be able to have otherwise,” Dissett said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What’s the current San Francisco weather forecast for this weekend?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>At this point, meteorologists expect rain to fall in the early morning hours on Sunday with isolated showers the rest of the day, said National Weather Service Bay Area meteorologist Rachel Kennedy, potentially allowing Hunky Jesus lovers to enjoy clear skies and a soggy lawn to party on.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The storm could also help deepen the state’s snowpack, supplying millions of Californians and farms with water as it melts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"#californiasnowpack\">Jump to more information about California’s snowpack.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1992156\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2202px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1992156\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2202\" height=\"1468\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375.jpg 2202w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_5375-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2202px) 100vw, 2202px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Participants celebrating in the sunshine at a previous Hunky Jesus and Foxy Mary contest in Dolores Park in San Francisco. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of Gareth Gooch, Gooch Photography)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“People on Sunday are lucking out because it looks like the worst of it will be on Friday and Saturday,” Kennedy said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco also just got even luckier thanks to a midweek storm that pushed the city to 111% of the yearly average rainfall it receives, Kennedy said. Most of the Bay Area is also in a similar situation, receiving between 90% and 100% of the average rainfall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This storm could drop up to 1 1/2 inches of rain and produce up to 40 mph gusts across the Bay Area. On Friday and Saturday, there’s also a chance of nuisance flooding throughout the region, but Kennedy said rivers aren’t likely to overflow.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What if it rains hard on Easter Sunday in San Francisco?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>If the clouds burst open Sunday and the event can’t happen because it’s raining too hard, Dissett said the organization will postpone the event and hold it on a smaller scale at a local bar the coming weekend. You can follow event updates online on \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/events/847951957131540/?active_tab=discussion\">Facebook\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.instagram.com/sfsisters/?hl=en\">Instagram\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1992158\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2202px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1992158\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2202\" height=\"1468\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815.jpg 2202w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/03/DSC_4815-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2202px) 100vw, 2202px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This year’s Hunky Jesus and Foxy Mary contest hosted by the nonprofit the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence will happen rain or shine. \u003ccite>(Courtesy of Gareth Gooch, Gooch Photography)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Whether it rains or not, Dissett recommends that people attending bring umbrellas, coverings to congregate under and something to put on the ground to keep from getting wet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Parking in the neighborhood around Dolores Park is limited, so the organization suggests walking, biking or using public transportation to get to the event. The organizers offer ADA parking, which can be obtained by calling 415-506-9848 or emailing easterinfo@thesisters.org.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>(Organizers say that while “nudity and profanity are prohibited, \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/events/mission-dolores-park/easter-in-the-park-hunky-jesus-foxy-mary-contest/847951957131540/\">some may find the Sisters’ trademark irreverence inappropriate for young children\u003c/a>.”)\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Who are the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.thesisters.org/\">The Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence\u003c/a> is an “order of queer and trans nuns who believe all people have a right to express their unique joy and beauty,” according to their site. They first appeared in San Francisco in 1979 on Easter Sunday. This year marks the organization’s 45th anniversary.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘We’re all about spreading joy, helping marginalized communities and alleviating shame that people seem to have as part of the human condition that we feel is unnecessary.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Daniel Dissett, Brother Sinthetic Soul, Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/tag/sisters-of-perpetual-indulgence\">The order is devoted to community service and outreach\u003c/a> “to those on the edges and to promoting human rights, respect for diversity and spiritual enlightenment.” The group is known for using humor and “irreverent wit to expose the forces of bigotry, complacency, and guilt that chain the human spirit.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In May 2023, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/13929331/sisters-perpetual-indulgence-pride-la-dodgers-mlb-roma\">the Sisters made national headlines by protesting the Los Angeles Dodgers’ decision\u003c/a> to uninvite the organization from the team’s Pride Night — a decision that was eventually reversed, in a move that prominent order member Sister Roma called “a true testament to the power of truth over lies, knowledge over ignorance, and love over hate.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re all about spreading joy, helping marginalized communities and alleviating shame that people seem to have as part of the human condition that we feel is unnecessary,” Dissett said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"californiasnowpack\">\u003c/a>Good news for California’s Snowpack?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1773753233384612334\">The storm will also reach the Sierra Nevada on Friday\u003c/a>, and meteorologists said up to 3 feet of snow could fall on the highest peaks throughout the weekend, complicating travel over mountain passes.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"label":"More on Weather ","tag":"weather"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Scott Rowe, senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento, said an extra couple of feet of snow is great news for the California snowpack, which is \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action\">at 104% of the average for this time of year\u003c/a>. The snowpack’s height is recorded on April 1, and this weekend’s storm will likely add a couple of percentage points to the already above-average year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In his latest weather post, \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/archives/38288\">UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain wrote that this average water year is “something of a feat”\u003c/a> because recent years have often been “characterized by either very low or very high snowpack.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This weekend’s storm won’t be extreme by any means, but it will be respectable by late March standards,” he wrote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After several days of dry weather, another storm could be in the picture by the end of next week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s a little bit of uncertainty as to what’s going to happen,” Rowe said. “Some forecast models are suggesting maybe some light rain.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1992138/san-franciscos-hunky-jesus-contest-to-happen-rain-or-shine","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_40"],"tags":["science_4992","science_2924","science_4417","science_4414","science_1213","science_5183","science_365"],"featImg":"science_1992139","label":"source_science_1992138"},"science_1991417":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1991417","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1991417","score":null,"sort":[1708129041000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"bay-area-braces-for-multiple-storms-sierra-nevada-snowfall-threat","title":"Holiday Weekend Storms On Tap Could Bring Flooding to the Bay Area","publishDate":1708129041,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Holiday Weekend Storms On Tap Could Bring Flooding to the Bay Area | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003ci>Updated, 1 p.m. Sunday:\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A strong storm with heavy rain is expected to hit the Bay Area around midday and continue through the night. According to the National Weather Service, strong winds that could knock down trees, a high surf, thunderstorms and potential flooding will last through Monday with conditions improving to lingering showers on Tuesday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The atmospheric river could bring two to five inches of rain to some Bay Area cities on Sunday afternoon and a flood watch will be in effect until Wednesday morning. In anticipation of potential landslides and other storm hazards, some parks in San Mateo County including Memorial Park have closed on Sunday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1759301577851211845\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>Updated, 1 p.m. Saturday:\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the first of two moderate atmospheric rivers begin to roll over the region, the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for the Bay Area and the Central Coast from Sunday through Wednesday morning. The advisory includes concerns about rising creeks, rivers and streams and the increased risk of shallow landslides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/mtr/\">high surf advisory \u003c/a>has been issued by the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office for all West-facing beaches from Sonoma County down to Monterey County. The high surf advisory will be in effect from 10 a.m. Saturday through 4 p.m. Sunday, with large breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet expected.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1758558171214537121\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dalton Behringer, a meteorologist with the weather service’s Bay Area office, said Saturday’s storm is “priming the pump” for potential flooding later in the weekend and into early next week. He said most parts of the Bay Area should expect between 1 and 3 inches of rain, and 6 to 8 inches could fall in coastal mountain ranges near Santa Cruz and Marin counties.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s going to help the soils get closer to saturation if they’re not already, and we will likely be dealing with numerous shallow landslides and minor urban flooding,” he said. “I would expect some trees down and power outages due to the wind.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said Saturday’s storm could contain wind gusts of up to 30 mph, and Sunday’s storm could have gusts of up to 35 mph along the coast and higher elevations. However, stronger lowland winds are possible in the Santa Clara and Salinas valleys.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Behringer said he is most concerned about the Russian River near Guerneville because meteorologists forecast the North Bay to receive more rain than most places in the region. He said the Russian River has a 20% chance of reaching a lower flood stage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said the Bay Area “could be under the gun for a good 24 to 48 hours.” He is concerned that either storm could stall over an already saturated area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you get those embedded heavy rain bands that stay over the same spot for a long time, that relatively modest storm by other means can potentially produce significant flooding,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/CW3E_Scripps/status/1758616085035888784\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Update, 2 p.m. Thursday: \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meteorologists are now forecasting two moderate atmospheric river storms will move over the Bay Area and into the Sierra Nevada over President’s Day Weekend, beginning with a weaker storm late Friday night. The first deluge could drop an inch of rain in populated areas of the region and up to 3 inches in the coastal range.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The second one is coming on the heels of the first one,” said Chad Hecht, a meteorologist at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California, San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“When you compound these storms, you tend to get a more exacerbated hydrologic response. Things like the ground saturated and heavy winds toppling trees.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hecht said the first storm would last about 24 hours and is forecasted to land in Northern California before working down the central coast. Forecasters expect Sunday’s storm to linger a few days and make landfall along the Central Coast, but Hecht said the Bay could still feel its effects because of the storm’s large size.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service’s Bay Area office forecasts high surf Saturday and Sunday with waves of 12 feet or larger from Monterey County to the San Francisco peninsula to the North Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We could see locally higher breaking waves up to 28 feet,” NWS meteorologist Dalton Behringer said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The west and southwest-facing beaches are going to be the most impacted,” he said. “The typical hotspots like Mavericks.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said both storms could bring wind gusts up to 40 mph along the coast and in more populated areas up to 35 mph. Behringer doesn’t expect extreme flooding since he forecasts the storms will occur over several days.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to be looking at minor, shallow landslides for much of the area,” he said. “The good news is that rivers still have quite a bit of capacity to take the runoff.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Behringer said the highest likelihood of any flooding issues due to streams or rivers rising is in the North Bay. But Hecht, with Scripps, said it is too early to tell where the worst storm effects will be.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is potential for some rivers to rise above flood stage with these storms,” Hecht said. “The exact location of where the heaviest precipitation will fall or what rivers will flood is hard to nail down, but the potential is there.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meteorologists forecast as much as 3 feet of snow falling on the Sierra Nevada between storms. The worst of the wintery conditions could come Sunday through Tuesday morning, coinciding with President’s Day this weekend.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1758242277581783100\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you’re planning on traveling Monday into Tuesday, we would advise against it because that’s when we are expecting heavy mountain snow,” said Chelsea Peters, an NWS Sacramento meteorologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Original story, Feb. 13:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service forecasts three storms of varying intensities will roll through the Bay Area this week, starting with a relatively weak storm on Wednesday that could include some light rain, followed by a couple of stronger storms during the long President’s Day weekend.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Forecasters expect three-quarters of an inch of rain across most of the region on Wednesday, with more than an inch expected to fall in the North Bay and Santa Cruz mountains. Over the weekend through early next week, NWS Bay Area meteorologist Roger Gass said as much as 6 inches of rain could fall along the coastal range. San Francisco could receive 2.5 inches of rain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation=\"Nathan Rick, meteorologist, NWS Sacramento\"]‘If you plan to travel, just be prepared for possible closures, chain controls and difficult driving conditions.’[/pullquote]While those numbers seem high, Gass cautioned that “we’re talking about [over] the course of several days. So it’s not all going to come at one time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That could mean that the impact of the storm won’t be as extreme, although just how intense Sunday’s storm will be is still up in the air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re still trying to fine-tune the details, but, again, it’s not expected to be as strong as the last system,” Gass said of the storm a week and a half ago that pounded the region with rain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1757498765068607873?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The three storms combined could add several feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada, and meteorologists advise holiday travelers to take extra precautions when visiting places like Tahoe or Yosemite National Park.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meteorologists expect significant snow to fall on the Sierra Saturday through Tuesday morning, with as much as 3 feet of snow at higher elevations. The storms coincide with the holiday weekend, and forecasters warn that getting out of the mountains on Monday could be a harrowing experience.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=\"science_1991123,science_1985890,science_1991249\" label=\"Related Stories\"]“If you plan to travel, just be prepared for possible closures, chain controls and difficult driving conditions,” said Nathan Rick, a meteorologist with NWS Sacramento. “Definitely have some alternative plans in place again if you can.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The storms aren’t quite atmospheric rivers — which can dump multiple inches of rain over a short period — but have some characteristics of these storms, mainly that the storms could encompass much of the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s going to be probably more or less an equal opportunity event,” UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a Monday briefing. “It’s going to affect most of the state simultaneously.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Swain said the weekend storms could produce “very wet conditions across most of the state.” He adds there’s a possibility of strong winds, “although almost certainly not as strong as what we saw last week in terms of wind” when gusts reached more than 90 mph in some places.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The trio of storms could bring flooding and landslides, especially as each deluge intensifies into next week. Swain said there could be flood concerns in Northern California because recent storms saturated much of the region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The difference is this one is coming fairly close on the heels of the previous very wet storm cycle,” he said. “It is now wet enough that a big storm cycle is going to start to result in larger flood-related impacts and the higher risk of landslides because the soil column is starting to become saturated at a deeper level.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Bay Area, meteorologists forecast nuisance flooding in local streams and drainages but not necessarily major rivers.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The National Weather Service forecasts intensifying rain over the Bay Area and snow in the Sierra during President’s Day weekend. A high surf advisory has been issued along the coast through Sunday evening.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1708290599,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":43,"wordCount":1681},"headData":{"title":"Holiday Weekend Storms On Tap Could Bring Flooding to the Bay Area | KQED","description":"The National Weather Service forecasts intensifying rain over the Bay Area and snow in the Sierra during President’s Day weekend. A high surf advisory has been issued along the coast through Sunday evening.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1991417/bay-area-braces-for-multiple-storms-sierra-nevada-snowfall-threat","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ci>Updated, 1 p.m. Sunday:\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A strong storm with heavy rain is expected to hit the Bay Area around midday and continue through the night. According to the National Weather Service, strong winds that could knock down trees, a high surf, thunderstorms and potential flooding will last through Monday with conditions improving to lingering showers on Tuesday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The atmospheric river could bring two to five inches of rain to some Bay Area cities on Sunday afternoon and a flood watch will be in effect until Wednesday morning. In anticipation of potential landslides and other storm hazards, some parks in San Mateo County including Memorial Park have closed on Sunday.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1759301577851211845"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>Updated, 1 p.m. Saturday:\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the first of two moderate atmospheric rivers begin to roll over the region, the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for the Bay Area and the Central Coast from Sunday through Wednesday morning. The advisory includes concerns about rising creeks, rivers and streams and the increased risk of shallow landslides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/mtr/\">high surf advisory \u003c/a>has been issued by the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office for all West-facing beaches from Sonoma County down to Monterey County. The high surf advisory will be in effect from 10 a.m. Saturday through 4 p.m. Sunday, with large breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet expected.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1758558171214537121"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Dalton Behringer, a meteorologist with the weather service’s Bay Area office, said Saturday’s storm is “priming the pump” for potential flooding later in the weekend and into early next week. He said most parts of the Bay Area should expect between 1 and 3 inches of rain, and 6 to 8 inches could fall in coastal mountain ranges near Santa Cruz and Marin counties.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s going to help the soils get closer to saturation if they’re not already, and we will likely be dealing with numerous shallow landslides and minor urban flooding,” he said. “I would expect some trees down and power outages due to the wind.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said Saturday’s storm could contain wind gusts of up to 30 mph, and Sunday’s storm could have gusts of up to 35 mph along the coast and higher elevations. However, stronger lowland winds are possible in the Santa Clara and Salinas valleys.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Behringer said he is most concerned about the Russian River near Guerneville because meteorologists forecast the North Bay to receive more rain than most places in the region. He said the Russian River has a 20% chance of reaching a lower flood stage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said the Bay Area “could be under the gun for a good 24 to 48 hours.” He is concerned that either storm could stall over an already saturated area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you get those embedded heavy rain bands that stay over the same spot for a long time, that relatively modest storm by other means can potentially produce significant flooding,” he said.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1758616085035888784"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Update, 2 p.m. Thursday: \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meteorologists are now forecasting two moderate atmospheric river storms will move over the Bay Area and into the Sierra Nevada over President’s Day Weekend, beginning with a weaker storm late Friday night. The first deluge could drop an inch of rain in populated areas of the region and up to 3 inches in the coastal range.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The second one is coming on the heels of the first one,” said Chad Hecht, a meteorologist at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California, San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“When you compound these storms, you tend to get a more exacerbated hydrologic response. Things like the ground saturated and heavy winds toppling trees.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hecht said the first storm would last about 24 hours and is forecasted to land in Northern California before working down the central coast. Forecasters expect Sunday’s storm to linger a few days and make landfall along the Central Coast, but Hecht said the Bay could still feel its effects because of the storm’s large size.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service’s Bay Area office forecasts high surf Saturday and Sunday with waves of 12 feet or larger from Monterey County to the San Francisco peninsula to the North Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We could see locally higher breaking waves up to 28 feet,” NWS meteorologist Dalton Behringer said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The west and southwest-facing beaches are going to be the most impacted,” he said. “The typical hotspots like Mavericks.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said both storms could bring wind gusts up to 40 mph along the coast and in more populated areas up to 35 mph. Behringer doesn’t expect extreme flooding since he forecasts the storms will occur over several days.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to be looking at minor, shallow landslides for much of the area,” he said. “The good news is that rivers still have quite a bit of capacity to take the runoff.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Behringer said the highest likelihood of any flooding issues due to streams or rivers rising is in the North Bay. But Hecht, with Scripps, said it is too early to tell where the worst storm effects will be.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is potential for some rivers to rise above flood stage with these storms,” Hecht said. “The exact location of where the heaviest precipitation will fall or what rivers will flood is hard to nail down, but the potential is there.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meteorologists forecast as much as 3 feet of snow falling on the Sierra Nevada between storms. The worst of the wintery conditions could come Sunday through Tuesday morning, coinciding with President’s Day this weekend.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1758242277581783100"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>“If you’re planning on traveling Monday into Tuesday, we would advise against it because that’s when we are expecting heavy mountain snow,” said Chelsea Peters, an NWS Sacramento meteorologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Original story, Feb. 13:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service forecasts three storms of varying intensities will roll through the Bay Area this week, starting with a relatively weak storm on Wednesday that could include some light rain, followed by a couple of stronger storms during the long President’s Day weekend.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Forecasters expect three-quarters of an inch of rain across most of the region on Wednesday, with more than an inch expected to fall in the North Bay and Santa Cruz mountains. Over the weekend through early next week, NWS Bay Area meteorologist Roger Gass said as much as 6 inches of rain could fall along the coastal range. San Francisco could receive 2.5 inches of rain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘If you plan to travel, just be prepared for possible closures, chain controls and difficult driving conditions.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Nathan Rick, meteorologist, NWS Sacramento","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>While those numbers seem high, Gass cautioned that “we’re talking about [over] the course of several days. So it’s not all going to come at one time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That could mean that the impact of the storm won’t be as extreme, although just how intense Sunday’s storm will be is still up in the air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re still trying to fine-tune the details, but, again, it’s not expected to be as strong as the last system,” Gass said of the storm a week and a half ago that pounded the region with rain.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1757498765068607873"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>The three storms combined could add several feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada, and meteorologists advise holiday travelers to take extra precautions when visiting places like Tahoe or Yosemite National Park.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meteorologists expect significant snow to fall on the Sierra Saturday through Tuesday morning, with as much as 3 feet of snow at higher elevations. The storms coincide with the holiday weekend, and forecasters warn that getting out of the mountains on Monday could be a harrowing experience.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"science_1991123,science_1985890,science_1991249","label":"Related Stories "},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“If you plan to travel, just be prepared for possible closures, chain controls and difficult driving conditions,” said Nathan Rick, a meteorologist with NWS Sacramento. “Definitely have some alternative plans in place again if you can.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The storms aren’t quite atmospheric rivers — which can dump multiple inches of rain over a short period — but have some characteristics of these storms, mainly that the storms could encompass much of the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s going to be probably more or less an equal opportunity event,” UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a Monday briefing. “It’s going to affect most of the state simultaneously.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Swain said the weekend storms could produce “very wet conditions across most of the state.” He adds there’s a possibility of strong winds, “although almost certainly not as strong as what we saw last week in terms of wind” when gusts reached more than 90 mph in some places.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The trio of storms could bring flooding and landslides, especially as each deluge intensifies into next week. Swain said there could be flood concerns in Northern California because recent storms saturated much of the region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The difference is this one is coming fairly close on the heels of the previous very wet storm cycle,” he said. “It is now wet enough that a big storm cycle is going to start to result in larger flood-related impacts and the higher risk of landslides because the soil column is starting to become saturated at a deeper level.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Bay Area, meteorologists forecast nuisance flooding in local streams and drainages but not necessarily major rivers.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1991417/bay-area-braces-for-multiple-storms-sierra-nevada-snowfall-threat","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_35","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_4417","science_1213","science_107","science_2878"],"featImg":"science_1991292","label":"science"},"science_1991249":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1991249","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1991249","score":null,"sort":[1706572828000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"north-bay-expecting-heavy-rains-swelling-rivers-possible-flooding","title":"North Bay Expecting Heavy Rains, Swelling Rivers, Possible Flooding","publishDate":1706572828,"format":"standard","headTitle":"North Bay Expecting Heavy Rains, Swelling Rivers, Possible Flooding | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cem>Update 11:50 a.m. Tuesday\u003cbr>\n\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\nA major storm boosted by an atmospheric river remains on track to hit Northern California beginning early Wednesday morning and lasting through Thursday morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service’s Bay Area office has issued a flood watch for the region from 4 a.m. Wednesday through 4 a.m. Friday, as well as a wind advisory from 4 a.m. Wednesday until 4 a.m. Thursday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia mountains are under a high wind warning during that same time period.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1752310020627423738\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Weather Service also adjusted its forecast to reflect that the “likelihood of reaching flood stage at mainstem rivers across the North Bay has increased to a 30-50% chance at the Russian River at Guerneville, the Napa River at Saint Helena, and the Napa River at Napa.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They also said that a “15-35% chance of reaching flood stage remains for the Russian River at Healdsburg in the North Bay and the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees in Santa Cruz County.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1751951669846577417\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Original story continues: \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Wednesday, the main front of a storm will move through the Bay Area, bringing heavy rains, strong winds and possible flooding in the North Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The heaviest rain is expected between 10 a.m. and 10 p.m. Wednesday. Scattered showers will continue throughout the rest of the week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service recently adjusted its forecast — and now predicts the storm system will move through the region slower than initially expected. The storm could drop between 4 and 6 inches on the coastal mountains on Wednesday and 2 and 4 elsewhere across the Bay. The city of San Francisco is expected to receive up to 3 inches.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The main stem of the Russian River at Guerneville has a 30% chance of rising above the minor flood stage between Thursday and Saturday. Some localized creeks and waterways, such as the Laguna de Santa Rosa at Stony Point Road in Cotati, may also rise above their banks. Other roadside flooding is likely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1751951669846577417?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re also looking at some slight potential for landslides due to how saturated the soils are,” said Rachel Kennedy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>High winds may bring down trees and electrical lines, causing power outages. Wind-blown debris may clutter roadways. The Weather Service forecasts peak gusts throughout the Bay Area at 30–40 miles per hour and isolated gusts up to 50 miles per hour on the coast and ridges.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/CW3E_Scripps/status/1751008081486758049?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Sierra Nevada, the Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch between Wednesday morning and Friday morning. Snow may accumulate between 1 and 2 feet and up to 3 feet on mountain peaks. Winds may gust up to 50–60 miles per hour.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Travel might be difficult, as chains could be needed or roads closed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s Kevin Stark contributed to this report. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The North Bay can expect heavy rains, strong winds and possible flooding as the main front of a storm moves through the Bay Area on Wednesday. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1706644071,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":17,"wordCount":522},"headData":{"title":"North Bay Expecting Heavy Rains, Swelling Rivers, Possible Flooding | KQED","description":"The North Bay can expect heavy rains, strong winds and possible flooding as the main front of a storm moves through the Bay Area on Wednesday. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1991249/north-bay-expecting-heavy-rains-swelling-rivers-possible-flooding","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>Update 11:50 a.m. Tuesday\u003cbr>\n\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\nA major storm boosted by an atmospheric river remains on track to hit Northern California beginning early Wednesday morning and lasting through Thursday morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service’s Bay Area office has issued a flood watch for the region from 4 a.m. Wednesday through 4 a.m. Friday, as well as a wind advisory from 4 a.m. Wednesday until 4 a.m. Thursday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia mountains are under a high wind warning during that same time period.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1752310020627423738"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>The Weather Service also adjusted its forecast to reflect that the “likelihood of reaching flood stage at mainstem rivers across the North Bay has increased to a 30-50% chance at the Russian River at Guerneville, the Napa River at Saint Helena, and the Napa River at Napa.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They also said that a “15-35% chance of reaching flood stage remains for the Russian River at Healdsburg in the North Bay and the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees in Santa Cruz County.”\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1751951669846577417"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Original story continues: \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Wednesday, the main front of a storm will move through the Bay Area, bringing heavy rains, strong winds and possible flooding in the North Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The heaviest rain is expected between 10 a.m. and 10 p.m. Wednesday. Scattered showers will continue throughout the rest of the week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service recently adjusted its forecast — and now predicts the storm system will move through the region slower than initially expected. The storm could drop between 4 and 6 inches on the coastal mountains on Wednesday and 2 and 4 elsewhere across the Bay. The city of San Francisco is expected to receive up to 3 inches.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The main stem of the Russian River at Guerneville has a 30% chance of rising above the minor flood stage between Thursday and Saturday. Some localized creeks and waterways, such as the Laguna de Santa Rosa at Stony Point Road in Cotati, may also rise above their banks. Other roadside flooding is likely.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1751951669846577417"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>“We’re also looking at some slight potential for landslides due to how saturated the soils are,” said Rachel Kennedy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>High winds may bring down trees and electrical lines, causing power outages. Wind-blown debris may clutter roadways. The Weather Service forecasts peak gusts throughout the Bay Area at 30–40 miles per hour and isolated gusts up to 50 miles per hour on the coast and ridges.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1751008081486758049"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>In the Sierra Nevada, the Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch between Wednesday morning and Friday morning. Snow may accumulate between 1 and 2 feet and up to 3 feet on mountain peaks. Winds may gust up to 50–60 miles per hour.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Travel might be difficult, as chains could be needed or roads closed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s Kevin Stark contributed to this report. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1991249/north-bay-expecting-heavy-rains-swelling-rivers-possible-flooding","authors":["11088"],"categories":["science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_2227","science_4414","science_1213","science_107","science_2878"],"featImg":"science_1991251","label":"science"},"science_1984737":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1984737","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1984737","score":null,"sort":[1697626859000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"el-nino-is-back-will-that-mean-rain-and-snow-for-californias-2023-winter","title":"Will El Niño’s Return Mean Rain and Snow for California's 2023 Winter?","publishDate":1697626859,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Will El Niño’s Return Mean Rain and Snow for California’s 2023 Winter? | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Climate scientists and weather forecasters suspect \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warn\">this winter could be as wet or wetter\u003c/a> than last year’s torrential downpours. But just how wet will this winter become?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The answer isn’t quite as simple as forecasters pumping various inputs into computer models that then spit out what we can definitively expect. The Bay Area’s weather patterns are created by global patterns in the atmosphere, everything from interactions with the ocean, landscape and sun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of those natural factors is\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982822/6-common-misconceptions-about-el-nino-and-its-impact-on-california-weather\"> the climate pattern known as El Niño\u003c/a>, which has returned after a four-year hiatus, ushering in the possibility of yet another stormy winter. \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html\">This weather system\u003c/a> has a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">75%–85% chance of becoming a strong system\u003c/a> from November to January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What is El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>El Niño — the opposite of La Niña, which recently ended a cycle — generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit. That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast of the U.S., often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=science_1982822 hero='https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1180x849.jpg']Climate forecasters predict a range of strengths for the current El Niño — everything from a moderate to a super El Niño — which can often be characterized by intense warmer downpours.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is potential for a lot of strong storms with coastal issues, and we just do not have extensive flood systems on the coast of California,” said Gary Lippner, deputy director for flood management and dam safety with the California Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With winter just a few months away, climate and weather experts suggest preparing our homes and lives for the worst — major flooding. Keep reading for what to know about 2023’s El Niño, from its impact on California’s snow forecast to the timing of weather predictions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Jump straight to:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#superelnino\">What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#elninosnowforecast\">Does a wet winter always mean snow in the forecast?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#climatechangeelnino\">Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#homeflooding\">How can I prepare my home for potential storms?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch2>Is it possible to predict what winter 2023 will be like in California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Kind of. It’s not possible to predict the day-to-day weather this far in advance. However, meteorologists are able to forecast possible climate changes that might happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now, it is still too far out and our seasonal forecasting capabilities are very limited,” said Michael Anderson, California’s state climatologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s a 30% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño event, which could rival the ferocity of the 1997–98 years, according to NOAA’s latest El Niño Advisory, which saw flooding rains across the state. The scientists note that while a stronger El Niño can increase the likelihood of weather anomalies, it does “not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because it’s usually only in the worst El Niño years that the entire state gets soaked — Southern California, on the other hand, has a slight tendency toward wetter conditions even in moderate El Niño years. (More on this below.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=news_11936674 hero='https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/10/2023/03/RS63686_002_KQED_AtmosphericRiver_03142023-qut-1020x680.jpg']Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services, said the relationship between El Niño and Bay Area impacts is not always clear and that the best thing to do as a California resident is to prepare for the worst outcome.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Climate models are showing this ambivalent pattern for California this winter,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for a timeline, researchers think that peak impacts — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">big atmospheric rivers that drop a ton of rain\u003c/a> — could arrive in the New Year through early spring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The closer we are to that winter rainy season forecast, obviously the better the prediction will be,” said John Chiang, a UC Berkeley climate scientist.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"superelnino\">\u003c/a>What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>While most predictions of the intensity of El Niño range from moderate to strong this year, \u003ca href=\"https://news.ucar.edu/132912/ncar-experimental-prediction-system-calls-super-el-nino-winter\">one forecasting group is predicting what they classify as a super El Niño\u003c/a> on par with 1997–98. That winter saw a great deluge across the state, as rivers swelled, mudslides destroyed homes and roads filled with debris. At the end of it, 17 people had died and the state suffered nearly $1 billion in damage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s only been seen three times previously in the historical record,” said Stephen Yeager, project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “We are looking at the potential of a major season-long event that could impact people and their livelihoods.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Yeager’s model, he and his team analyzed historical conditions from 1970 to 2019. They took atmospheric conditions into account — warmth, humidity and wind— as well as the state of oceans, ice and land. They then compared that historical data with computer model forecasts, which unveiled the potential for a super El Niño this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our system is predicting a warmer event than many other [models],” Yeager said. “But it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1984766\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1984766\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A bright yellow snowplow drives on a snowy country road surrounded by pine trees.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A snowplow is seen as snow blankets Route 237 in Stateline, Nevada, on Nov. 8, 2022.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Does a strong El Niño prediction mean a wet winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>No, not all El Niños are the same. And even a strong system doesn’t mean California will get walloped by atmospheric rivers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When looking at the historical record, Null said El Niño years have almost equally had above-average and below-average rainfall. For instance, the years of 2015–16 produced a very strong El Niño event but were relatively dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trying to say this is going to be a strong or very strong event doesn’t equate directly to ‘it’s going to be a wet year in California,’” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He adds that an alphabet soup of other natural phenomena factor into the strength of El Niño and its potential effects, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"elninosnowforecast\">\u003c/a>Does a wet winter always bring snow to California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>A wet winter does not always mean \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937204/lake-tahoe-weather-forecast-road-conditions-snow-chains\">ample snow\u003c/a>. Chiang, with UC Berkeley, said that El Niño tends to have warmer weather patterns, which can actually decrease snow amounts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That does play a role — but if you are high enough and cold enough, it will snow rather than rain,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chiang adds that the effects of El Niño are not ubiquitous across the world, country or even one state. The climate system can mean wetter weather patterns in California and the Southwest and warmer weather in the Northwest.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>At what point in the year do we begin to get firmer predictions for winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The only time we can really know what winter will be like is the moment that it ends, said Null, tongue in cheek.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, the seasonal forecast for California’s winter was an even split for a wet or dry winter — and a few months later, torrential rain pounded the state for months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Around mid-November, Yeager said the forecast will come into better clarity, when updates to weather predictions come out. Around that time, forecasters will outline the potential weather possibilities for the next few months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But if last winter’s storms taught him anything, said Yeager, predictions can change rapidly, meaning storms could become more intense or back off in severity. Because of the varying predictions — and his super El Niño forecast — he thinks all Californians should prepare for a wet winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If I were living in San Francisco and considering repairing my roof, I might do it based on this information,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"climatechangeelnino\">\u003c/a>Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The impact of human-caused climate change on El Niño conditions is hard to pinpoint. Scientists hypothesize it is having an effect, making the impacts from it and La Niña more extreme.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Basically, the wets will become even wetter in California. But the science is still not settled on that, said Yeager.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With ocean temperatures soaring and record warmth this past summer, scientists like Null see a correlation with climate change — but say that it needs to be further proven and studied.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every weather event, whether during El Niño or La Niña, has some climate change DNA,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1932772\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 3623px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1932772\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg\" alt=\"A large wave crashes onto seaside houses.\" width=\"3623\" height=\"2606\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg 3623w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-160x115.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-800x575.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-768x552.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1020x734.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1200x863.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1920x1381.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1180x849.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-960x691.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-240x173.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-375x270.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-520x374.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3623px) 100vw, 3623px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">El Niño-generated storm waves crash onto seaside houses at Mondos Beach, Ventura County, on Jan. 12, 2016. \u003ccite>(Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"homeflooding\">\u003c/a>How should we prepare for a wet year?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>First up, understand just how much you — and your home — could be affected by \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more\">a winter storm of the magnitude we saw earlier this year\u003c/a>. Previous storms in the Bay Area have knocked down trees, flooded roads and cut power to tens of thousands of homes and businesses, and contributed to several deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flooding could mean you have to evacuate your home, or live without crucial services for an extended period. Besides flashlights, experts recommend having\u003ca href=\"https://www.ready.gov/floods#prepare\"> an emergency supply kit\u003c/a> ready in both your home and car, should you need to evacuate. Previous storms in the Bay Area have also resulted in \u003ca href=\"https://pgealerts.alerts.pge.com/outagecenter/\">power outages that affected over 100,000 PG&E customers\u003c/a>. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#poweroutages\">Read more about preparing your home for a potential power outage.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley’s Chiang suggests California property owners should be especially prepared for potential torrential downpours, and consider preemptive measures like fixing leaky roofs, clearing drains and cleaning gutters. Last winter, parts of Chiang’s own Bay Area home flooded and his roof leaked. This year, he prepared by fixing drainage issues around his house and replacing the roof on his home. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">Read more about preparing your home for potential flooding.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you are a homeowner, keep in mind that most home insurance plans do not cover damage caused by flooding. However, \u003ca href=\"https://floodsmart.gov/\">you can buy an additional policy with the National Flood Insurance Program\u003c/a> through your existing insurance provider. It’s important to mention that if you decide to buy a plan now, there is a 30-day wait period for the benefits to begin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If your home experienced flooding during previous storms this year — or in storms from years past — officials recommend having sandbags, plastic sheeting and other flood control materials ready. Counties, public utilities and even community organizations across the Bay Area will often distribute \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#sandbags\">free sandbags during the rainy season\u003c/a> or ahead of a big forecast storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Following the atmospheric river storms that hit Northern California over the 2022–2023 winter, officials around the Bay Area doubled down on efforts to keep waterways and storm drains clear to reduce the risk of flooding in residential areas. Both \u003ca href=\"https://www.oaklandca.gov/services/adopt-a-drain\">Oakland\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://sfpuc.org/learning/how-you-can-help/adopt-drain-sf\">San Francisco \u003c/a>have\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/13923319/you-can-adopt-a-drain-in-san-francisco-with-naming-rights-included\"> programs where residents can “adopt” a storm drain\u003c/a> in their community and help remove leaves and other debris.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>FEMA also has created a tool that tracks which parts of a city are under flood risk — and to what extent. You can \u003ca href=\"https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home\">input your address in the FEMA Flood Map Service Center\u003c/a>. Once the map tool locates your address, you can select the “Dynamic Map” option to see a more detailed map that may have certain neighborhoods or blocks color coded to represent flood risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Carlos Cabrera-Lomelí, Emma Silvers, Carly Severn, Daisy Nguyen and Erin Baldassari contributed \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">flood preparation reporting\u003c/a> to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"From snow forecasts to wet storms, how could El Niño impact California's weather in winter 2023? Climate experts weigh in on the predictability of El Niño.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845865,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":46,"wordCount":2045},"headData":{"title":"Will El Niño’s Return Mean Rain and Snow for California's 2023 Winter? | KQED","description":"From snow forecasts to wet storms, how could El Niño impact California's weather in winter 2023? Climate experts weigh in on the predictability of El Niño.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1984737/el-nino-is-back-will-that-mean-rain-and-snow-for-californias-2023-winter","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Climate scientists and weather forecasters suspect \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warn\">this winter could be as wet or wetter\u003c/a> than last year’s torrential downpours. But just how wet will this winter become?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The answer isn’t quite as simple as forecasters pumping various inputs into computer models that then spit out what we can definitively expect. The Bay Area’s weather patterns are created by global patterns in the atmosphere, everything from interactions with the ocean, landscape and sun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of those natural factors is\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982822/6-common-misconceptions-about-el-nino-and-its-impact-on-california-weather\"> the climate pattern known as El Niño\u003c/a>, which has returned after a four-year hiatus, ushering in the possibility of yet another stormy winter. \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html\">This weather system\u003c/a> has a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">75%–85% chance of becoming a strong system\u003c/a> from November to January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What is El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>El Niño — the opposite of La Niña, which recently ended a cycle — generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit. That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast of the U.S., often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"science_1982822","hero":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1180x849.jpg","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Climate forecasters predict a range of strengths for the current El Niño — everything from a moderate to a super El Niño — which can often be characterized by intense warmer downpours.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is potential for a lot of strong storms with coastal issues, and we just do not have extensive flood systems on the coast of California,” said Gary Lippner, deputy director for flood management and dam safety with the California Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With winter just a few months away, climate and weather experts suggest preparing our homes and lives for the worst — major flooding. Keep reading for what to know about 2023’s El Niño, from its impact on California’s snow forecast to the timing of weather predictions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Jump straight to:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#superelnino\">What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#elninosnowforecast\">Does a wet winter always mean snow in the forecast?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#climatechangeelnino\">Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#homeflooding\">How can I prepare my home for potential storms?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch2>Is it possible to predict what winter 2023 will be like in California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Kind of. It’s not possible to predict the day-to-day weather this far in advance. However, meteorologists are able to forecast possible climate changes that might happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now, it is still too far out and our seasonal forecasting capabilities are very limited,” said Michael Anderson, California’s state climatologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s a 30% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño event, which could rival the ferocity of the 1997–98 years, according to NOAA’s latest El Niño Advisory, which saw flooding rains across the state. The scientists note that while a stronger El Niño can increase the likelihood of weather anomalies, it does “not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because it’s usually only in the worst El Niño years that the entire state gets soaked — Southern California, on the other hand, has a slight tendency toward wetter conditions even in moderate El Niño years. (More on this below.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"news_11936674","hero":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/10/2023/03/RS63686_002_KQED_AtmosphericRiver_03142023-qut-1020x680.jpg","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services, said the relationship between El Niño and Bay Area impacts is not always clear and that the best thing to do as a California resident is to prepare for the worst outcome.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Climate models are showing this ambivalent pattern for California this winter,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for a timeline, researchers think that peak impacts — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">big atmospheric rivers that drop a ton of rain\u003c/a> — could arrive in the New Year through early spring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The closer we are to that winter rainy season forecast, obviously the better the prediction will be,” said John Chiang, a UC Berkeley climate scientist.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"superelnino\">\u003c/a>What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>While most predictions of the intensity of El Niño range from moderate to strong this year, \u003ca href=\"https://news.ucar.edu/132912/ncar-experimental-prediction-system-calls-super-el-nino-winter\">one forecasting group is predicting what they classify as a super El Niño\u003c/a> on par with 1997–98. That winter saw a great deluge across the state, as rivers swelled, mudslides destroyed homes and roads filled with debris. At the end of it, 17 people had died and the state suffered nearly $1 billion in damage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s only been seen three times previously in the historical record,” said Stephen Yeager, project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “We are looking at the potential of a major season-long event that could impact people and their livelihoods.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Yeager’s model, he and his team analyzed historical conditions from 1970 to 2019. They took atmospheric conditions into account — warmth, humidity and wind— as well as the state of oceans, ice and land. They then compared that historical data with computer model forecasts, which unveiled the potential for a super El Niño this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our system is predicting a warmer event than many other [models],” Yeager said. “But it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1984766\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1984766\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A bright yellow snowplow drives on a snowy country road surrounded by pine trees.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A snowplow is seen as snow blankets Route 237 in Stateline, Nevada, on Nov. 8, 2022.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Does a strong El Niño prediction mean a wet winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>No, not all El Niños are the same. And even a strong system doesn’t mean California will get walloped by atmospheric rivers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When looking at the historical record, Null said El Niño years have almost equally had above-average and below-average rainfall. For instance, the years of 2015–16 produced a very strong El Niño event but were relatively dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trying to say this is going to be a strong or very strong event doesn’t equate directly to ‘it’s going to be a wet year in California,’” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He adds that an alphabet soup of other natural phenomena factor into the strength of El Niño and its potential effects, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"elninosnowforecast\">\u003c/a>Does a wet winter always bring snow to California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>A wet winter does not always mean \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937204/lake-tahoe-weather-forecast-road-conditions-snow-chains\">ample snow\u003c/a>. Chiang, with UC Berkeley, said that El Niño tends to have warmer weather patterns, which can actually decrease snow amounts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That does play a role — but if you are high enough and cold enough, it will snow rather than rain,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chiang adds that the effects of El Niño are not ubiquitous across the world, country or even one state. The climate system can mean wetter weather patterns in California and the Southwest and warmer weather in the Northwest.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>At what point in the year do we begin to get firmer predictions for winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The only time we can really know what winter will be like is the moment that it ends, said Null, tongue in cheek.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, the seasonal forecast for California’s winter was an even split for a wet or dry winter — and a few months later, torrential rain pounded the state for months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Around mid-November, Yeager said the forecast will come into better clarity, when updates to weather predictions come out. Around that time, forecasters will outline the potential weather possibilities for the next few months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But if last winter’s storms taught him anything, said Yeager, predictions can change rapidly, meaning storms could become more intense or back off in severity. Because of the varying predictions — and his super El Niño forecast — he thinks all Californians should prepare for a wet winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If I were living in San Francisco and considering repairing my roof, I might do it based on this information,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"climatechangeelnino\">\u003c/a>Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The impact of human-caused climate change on El Niño conditions is hard to pinpoint. Scientists hypothesize it is having an effect, making the impacts from it and La Niña more extreme.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Basically, the wets will become even wetter in California. But the science is still not settled on that, said Yeager.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With ocean temperatures soaring and record warmth this past summer, scientists like Null see a correlation with climate change — but say that it needs to be further proven and studied.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every weather event, whether during El Niño or La Niña, has some climate change DNA,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1932772\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 3623px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1932772\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg\" alt=\"A large wave crashes onto seaside houses.\" width=\"3623\" height=\"2606\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg 3623w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-160x115.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-800x575.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-768x552.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1020x734.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1200x863.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1920x1381.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1180x849.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-960x691.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-240x173.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-375x270.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-520x374.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 3623px) 100vw, 3623px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">El Niño-generated storm waves crash onto seaside houses at Mondos Beach, Ventura County, on Jan. 12, 2016. \u003ccite>(Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"homeflooding\">\u003c/a>How should we prepare for a wet year?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>First up, understand just how much you — and your home — could be affected by \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more\">a winter storm of the magnitude we saw earlier this year\u003c/a>. Previous storms in the Bay Area have knocked down trees, flooded roads and cut power to tens of thousands of homes and businesses, and contributed to several deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flooding could mean you have to evacuate your home, or live without crucial services for an extended period. Besides flashlights, experts recommend having\u003ca href=\"https://www.ready.gov/floods#prepare\"> an emergency supply kit\u003c/a> ready in both your home and car, should you need to evacuate. Previous storms in the Bay Area have also resulted in \u003ca href=\"https://pgealerts.alerts.pge.com/outagecenter/\">power outages that affected over 100,000 PG&E customers\u003c/a>. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#poweroutages\">Read more about preparing your home for a potential power outage.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley’s Chiang suggests California property owners should be especially prepared for potential torrential downpours, and consider preemptive measures like fixing leaky roofs, clearing drains and cleaning gutters. Last winter, parts of Chiang’s own Bay Area home flooded and his roof leaked. This year, he prepared by fixing drainage issues around his house and replacing the roof on his home. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">Read more about preparing your home for potential flooding.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you are a homeowner, keep in mind that most home insurance plans do not cover damage caused by flooding. However, \u003ca href=\"https://floodsmart.gov/\">you can buy an additional policy with the National Flood Insurance Program\u003c/a> through your existing insurance provider. It’s important to mention that if you decide to buy a plan now, there is a 30-day wait period for the benefits to begin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If your home experienced flooding during previous storms this year — or in storms from years past — officials recommend having sandbags, plastic sheeting and other flood control materials ready. Counties, public utilities and even community organizations across the Bay Area will often distribute \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#sandbags\">free sandbags during the rainy season\u003c/a> or ahead of a big forecast storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Following the atmospheric river storms that hit Northern California over the 2022–2023 winter, officials around the Bay Area doubled down on efforts to keep waterways and storm drains clear to reduce the risk of flooding in residential areas. Both \u003ca href=\"https://www.oaklandca.gov/services/adopt-a-drain\">Oakland\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://sfpuc.org/learning/how-you-can-help/adopt-drain-sf\">San Francisco \u003c/a>have\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/13923319/you-can-adopt-a-drain-in-san-francisco-with-naming-rights-included\"> programs where residents can “adopt” a storm drain\u003c/a> in their community and help remove leaves and other debris.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>FEMA also has created a tool that tracks which parts of a city are under flood risk — and to what extent. You can \u003ca href=\"https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home\">input your address in the FEMA Flood Map Service Center\u003c/a>. Once the map tool locates your address, you can select the “Dynamic Map” option to see a more detailed map that may have certain neighborhoods or blocks color coded to represent flood risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Carlos Cabrera-Lomelí, Emma Silvers, Carly Severn, Daisy Nguyen and Erin Baldassari contributed \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">flood preparation reporting\u003c/a> to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1984737/el-nino-is-back-will-that-mean-rain-and-snow-for-californias-2023-winter","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_4992","science_371","science_4414","science_1213","science_107","science_365"],"featImg":"science_1984774","label":"science"},"science_1935067":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1935067","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1935067","score":null,"sort":[1672840901000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms","title":"Rivers in the Sky: What You Need to Know About Atmospheric River Storms","publishDate":1672840901,"format":"image","headTitle":"Rivers in the Sky: What You Need to Know About Atmospheric River Storms | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>If you live in California, you’ve likely heard the term “\u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/stories/what-are-atmospheric-rivers\">atmospheric river\u003c/a>” thrown around in recent weeks. The state was slammed by several of these massive, fast-moving storm systems in December, with another one expected to soak the region on Wednesday and Thursday. These storms can transport \u003ca href=\"http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Ralphetal2017-JHMDropsondes.pdf\">more than 25 times the moisture as flows through the mouth of the Mississippi River (PDF)\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As you’re breaking out those rain slickers, boots and umbrellas, here’s what you need to know about atmospheric rivers, sometimes referred to as “ARs.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>So what are atmospheric rivers?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>“Giant rivers of water vapor in the sky with strong winds pushing them along.” That’s how \u003ca href=\"http://scrippsscholars.ucsd.edu/mralph\">Marty Ralph\u003c/a>, a leading AR researcher and director of the \u003ca href=\"http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/\">Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes\u003c/a>, or CW3E, in La Jolla, describes them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A typical AR can be 300 miles wide, a mile deep and more than 1,000 miles long.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re the biggest freshwater rivers on Earth,” Ralph says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In addition to being long, fast and packed with moisture, ARs can behave erratically, changing direction unpredictably.\u003cbr>\n[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>How do they happen?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers commonly begin as warm water storms over the Pacific Ocean, where evaporation creates a high concentration of moisture in the air. Prevailing winds give ARs their distinctive shape, and probably helped give rise to their comparisons to a fire hose, pointed at California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When ARs are blown over land, the giant streams of moisture they contain cool and condense, causing heavy snow or downpours, depending on the elevation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The term “\u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/pineapple-express.html\">Pineapple Express\u003c/a>” (not \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWZt4v6b1hI\">this \u003cem>Pineapple Express\u003c/em>\u003c/a>) refers to ARs that form in tropical regions of the Pacific, often around Hawaii. These can pound the west coast of North America from California to Canada with intense storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>But what makes ARs different from other storms?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers are categorized by a unit of measurement called Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT). IVT takes into account both the amount of water vapor in the system and the wind that moves it around, making it flow like a, well, giant river in the atmosphere.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a storm to be classified as an AR, it must reach an IVT threshold of 250 units. An atmospheric river with IVT of 1,000 or more is considered “extreme.” ARs fall into five categories, from “weak” to “exceptional.” \u003ca class=\"c-link\" href=\"https://twitter.com/PaulKPIX/status/1610048056329920512/photo/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https://twitter.com/PaulKPIX/status/1610048056329920512/photo/1\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\" data-remove-tab-index=\"true\">Wednesday’s storm is expected to be a Category 3\u003c/a>, or “strong,” according to data from CW3E.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Are atmospheric rivers good or bad?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers produce up to \u003ca href=\"https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/californias-climate-future-suggests-more-volatility-and-key-role-atmospheric-rivers\">50% of California’s precipitation annually\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Gershunov_et_al-2017-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf\">65% seasonally (PDF)\u003c/a>. According to Ralph, the state gets one to two dozen AR storms per year. When we have fewer, we get … yes, that would be drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Atmospheric rivers \u003ca href=\"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1hq3504j\">make or break our water year in California\u003c/a>,” Ralph says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, when we get too much AR storm activity, look out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A typical atmospheric river event lasts about a day. Problems begin when they last longer in duration or occur back-to-back. This can lead to \u003ca href=\"https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/outreach/resources/handouts/atmos_rivers.pdf\">major hazards\u003c/a> like flooding, mudslides or ash flow in the aftermath of wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Research suggests that atmospheric rivers contributed to the \u003ca href=\"https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/home/content/atmospheric-rivers-and-lake-oroville-dam-stress\">collapse of both spillways at Oroville Dam\u003c/a> in February of 2017.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>ARs were also undoubtedly behind the worst floods in California’s history, when the state capital of \u003ca href=\"https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe/\">Sacramento was inundated\u003c/a> during the winter of 1861–62.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Atmospheric rivers don’t just affect California. Here’s a quick Canadian take on them:\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9Rn7HhmV5E&w=560&h=315]\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Should I be worried?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Though ARs don’t get assigned names, like hurricanes, they are the “900-pound gorilla” of West Coast weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For the West Coast, they are really our big storms,” says \u003ca href=\"https://scripps.ucsd.edu/profiles/jkalansky\">Julie Kalansky\u003c/a>, operations manager at CW3E.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem in the past has been that atmospheric rivers have been hard to forecast. While satellites provide some information, ARs are relatively low-lying storm systems, which means they’re often obscured from space by higher altitude clouds. Atmospheric rivers fall into five categories, from “weak” to “exceptional.” \u003ca class=\"c-link\" href=\"https://twitter.com/PaulKPIX/status/1610048056329920512/photo/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https://twitter.com/PaulKPIX/status/1610048056329920512/photo/1\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\" data-remove-tab-index=\"true\">Wednesday’s storm is expected to be a Category 3\u003c/a>, or “strong,” according to data from CW3E.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In recent years, Ralph and his colleagues at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography as well as the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have been working to \u003ca href=\"https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/scripps-institution-oceanography-air-force-noaa-poised-probe-atmospheric-rivers\">better understand AR phenomena\u003c/a>. They’re using techniques like flying aircraft along the path of atmospheric rivers and dropping weather sensors called “dropsondes” directly into them from above.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>How is climate change affecting ARs?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Ralph says there is still more research to be done, but atmospheric rivers are increasingly appearing in climate models. He notes that the recently released \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1934809/federal-report-climate-change-already-hurting-u-s-communities\">National Climate Assessment\u003c/a> added ARs to the list of extreme weather threats.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One thing appears to be clear: The warmer the atmosphere, the more moisture an atmospheric river can contain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ralph says this may not increase the frequency of atmospheric rivers in the future, but will make them more intense.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They will be stronger,” Ralph says, “That’s pretty much a consensus in the [scientific] community.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>A version of this story was originally published on Jan. 16, 2019.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s Senior Science Editor Kevin Stark, Science Editor Craig Miller and Jenny Pritchett contributed to this post.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"If you live in California, you've likely heard the term 'atmospheric river' thrown around in recent weeks. Atmospheric rivers produce up to 50% of California's precipitation annually and 65% seasonally.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704846120,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":31,"wordCount":945},"headData":{"title":"Rivers in the Sky: What You Need to Know About Atmospheric River Storms | KQED","description":"If you live in California, you've likely heard the term 'atmospheric river' thrown around in recent weeks. Atmospheric rivers produce up to 50% of California's precipitation annually and 65% seasonally.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"science_1977202","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"science_1977202"},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>If you live in California, you’ve likely heard the term “\u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/stories/what-are-atmospheric-rivers\">atmospheric river\u003c/a>” thrown around in recent weeks. The state was slammed by several of these massive, fast-moving storm systems in December, with another one expected to soak the region on Wednesday and Thursday. These storms can transport \u003ca href=\"http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Ralphetal2017-JHMDropsondes.pdf\">more than 25 times the moisture as flows through the mouth of the Mississippi River (PDF)\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As you’re breaking out those rain slickers, boots and umbrellas, here’s what you need to know about atmospheric rivers, sometimes referred to as “ARs.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>So what are atmospheric rivers?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>“Giant rivers of water vapor in the sky with strong winds pushing them along.” That’s how \u003ca href=\"http://scrippsscholars.ucsd.edu/mralph\">Marty Ralph\u003c/a>, a leading AR researcher and director of the \u003ca href=\"http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/\">Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes\u003c/a>, or CW3E, in La Jolla, describes them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A typical AR can be 300 miles wide, a mile deep and more than 1,000 miles long.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re the biggest freshwater rivers on Earth,” Ralph says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In addition to being long, fast and packed with moisture, ARs can behave erratically, changing direction unpredictably.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>How do they happen?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers commonly begin as warm water storms over the Pacific Ocean, where evaporation creates a high concentration of moisture in the air. Prevailing winds give ARs their distinctive shape, and probably helped give rise to their comparisons to a fire hose, pointed at California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When ARs are blown over land, the giant streams of moisture they contain cool and condense, causing heavy snow or downpours, depending on the elevation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The term “\u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/pineapple-express.html\">Pineapple Express\u003c/a>” (not \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWZt4v6b1hI\">this \u003cem>Pineapple Express\u003c/em>\u003c/a>) refers to ARs that form in tropical regions of the Pacific, often around Hawaii. These can pound the west coast of North America from California to Canada with intense storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>But what makes ARs different from other storms?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers are categorized by a unit of measurement called Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT). IVT takes into account both the amount of water vapor in the system and the wind that moves it around, making it flow like a, well, giant river in the atmosphere.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a storm to be classified as an AR, it must reach an IVT threshold of 250 units. An atmospheric river with IVT of 1,000 or more is considered “extreme.” ARs fall into five categories, from “weak” to “exceptional.” \u003ca class=\"c-link\" href=\"https://twitter.com/PaulKPIX/status/1610048056329920512/photo/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https://twitter.com/PaulKPIX/status/1610048056329920512/photo/1\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\" data-remove-tab-index=\"true\">Wednesday’s storm is expected to be a Category 3\u003c/a>, or “strong,” according to data from CW3E.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Are atmospheric rivers good or bad?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers produce up to \u003ca href=\"https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/californias-climate-future-suggests-more-volatility-and-key-role-atmospheric-rivers\">50% of California’s precipitation annually\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Gershunov_et_al-2017-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf\">65% seasonally (PDF)\u003c/a>. According to Ralph, the state gets one to two dozen AR storms per year. When we have fewer, we get … yes, that would be drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Atmospheric rivers \u003ca href=\"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1hq3504j\">make or break our water year in California\u003c/a>,” Ralph says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, when we get too much AR storm activity, look out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A typical atmospheric river event lasts about a day. Problems begin when they last longer in duration or occur back-to-back. This can lead to \u003ca href=\"https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/outreach/resources/handouts/atmos_rivers.pdf\">major hazards\u003c/a> like flooding, mudslides or ash flow in the aftermath of wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Research suggests that atmospheric rivers contributed to the \u003ca href=\"https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/home/content/atmospheric-rivers-and-lake-oroville-dam-stress\">collapse of both spillways at Oroville Dam\u003c/a> in February of 2017.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>ARs were also undoubtedly behind the worst floods in California’s history, when the state capital of \u003ca href=\"https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe/\">Sacramento was inundated\u003c/a> during the winter of 1861–62.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Atmospheric rivers don’t just affect California. Here’s a quick Canadian take on them:\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/b9Rn7HhmV5E'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/b9Rn7HhmV5E'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Should I be worried?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Though ARs don’t get assigned names, like hurricanes, they are the “900-pound gorilla” of West Coast weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For the West Coast, they are really our big storms,” says \u003ca href=\"https://scripps.ucsd.edu/profiles/jkalansky\">Julie Kalansky\u003c/a>, operations manager at CW3E.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem in the past has been that atmospheric rivers have been hard to forecast. While satellites provide some information, ARs are relatively low-lying storm systems, which means they’re often obscured from space by higher altitude clouds. Atmospheric rivers fall into five categories, from “weak” to “exceptional.” \u003ca class=\"c-link\" href=\"https://twitter.com/PaulKPIX/status/1610048056329920512/photo/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https://twitter.com/PaulKPIX/status/1610048056329920512/photo/1\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\" data-remove-tab-index=\"true\">Wednesday’s storm is expected to be a Category 3\u003c/a>, or “strong,” according to data from CW3E.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In recent years, Ralph and his colleagues at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography as well as the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have been working to \u003ca href=\"https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/scripps-institution-oceanography-air-force-noaa-poised-probe-atmospheric-rivers\">better understand AR phenomena\u003c/a>. They’re using techniques like flying aircraft along the path of atmospheric rivers and dropping weather sensors called “dropsondes” directly into them from above.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>How is climate change affecting ARs?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Ralph says there is still more research to be done, but atmospheric rivers are increasingly appearing in climate models. He notes that the recently released \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1934809/federal-report-climate-change-already-hurting-u-s-communities\">National Climate Assessment\u003c/a> added ARs to the list of extreme weather threats.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One thing appears to be clear: The warmer the atmosphere, the more moisture an atmospheric river can contain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ralph says this may not increase the frequency of atmospheric rivers in the future, but will make them more intense.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They will be stronger,” Ralph says, “That’s pretty much a consensus in the [scientific] community.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>A version of this story was originally published on Jan. 16, 2019.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s Senior Science Editor Kevin Stark, Science Editor Craig Miller and Jenny Pritchett contributed to this post.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms","authors":["11368"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_2873","science_4450","science_98"],"tags":["science_2227","science_2924","science_4414","science_3832","science_3834","science_1213"],"featImg":"science_1936848","label":"science"},"science_1977196":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1977196","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1977196","score":null,"sort":[1634755528000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"newsom-declares-drought-emergency-across-california","title":"Newsom Declares Drought Emergency Across California","publishDate":1634755528,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Newsom Declares Drought Emergency Across California | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a drought emergency for the entire state of California, as conservation efforts continue to fall far short of state targets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.gov.ca.gov/2021/10/19/governor-newsom-expands-drought-emergency-statewide-urges-californians-to-redouble-water-conservation-efforts/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Newsom also authorized\u003c/a> California’s water regulators to ban wasteful water use, such as spraying down public sidewalks, and directed his Office of Emergency Services to fund drinking water as needed. But he stopped short of issuing any statewide conservation mandates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As the western U.S. faces a potential third year of drought, it’s critical that Californians across the state redouble our efforts to save water in every way possible,” Newsom said in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yesterday’s announcement extends drought emergencies, \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/07/california-water-use-drought/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">already declared in 50 counties\u003c/a>, to the eight remaining counties where conditions had thus far not been deemed severe enough: Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Imperial, San Francisco and Ventura.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The emergency declarations are aimed at easing responses to the deepening drought — such as emergency bottled water purchases or construction to bolster water supplies — by reducing environmental and other regulations. Under the proclamation, local water suppliers must begin preparing for the possibility of a dry year ahead.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We think we’ll be able to manage through this year,” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-pettijohn-bb521592/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">David Pettijohn\u003c/a>, director of water resources at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. “Next year is the issue. And we don’t know what the water year is going to look like. Nobody can predict the weather.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But California’s water watchers say that without a conservation mandate, California is losing time, and water. “We know mandates are more effective than voluntary calls,” said \u003ca href=\"https://pacinst.org/team/heather-cooley/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Heather Cooley\u003c/a>, director of research at the Pacific Institute, a global water think tank. “It takes time to ramp up, and because of the delay in asking Californians to save water this spring, we are further behind than we should be.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3 id=\"h-conservation-improving-but-still-short-of-goals\">Conservation improving, but still short of goals\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>New data released by the State Water Resources Control Board reveals that Californians cut their water use at home by 5% in August compared to August 2020, an improvement \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/drought-2021/2021/09/california-drought-conservation/\">over the reductions of less than 2% in July\u003c/a> but still far short of the voluntary \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/07/california-water-use-drought/\">15% cuts\u003c/a> Newsom urged in July.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The hard-hit North Coast, where the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/04/governor-drought-emergency-in-northwestern-counties/\">first drought emergencies\u003c/a> were declared in April, continued to show the biggest drops in household water use — with an 18.3% decrease compared to August of last year. Conservation numbers tapered off moving south, with the San Francisco Bay Area conserving nearly 10% more water than last August.\u003cbr>\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mmBVo/1/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"800\" height=\"800\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The South Coast region — which includes Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego and Ventura counties — showed an improvement over July, when water use was roughly even with last year. In August, residents used about 3.1% less water than they did in August 2020.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those numbers are a little bit misleading, frankly,” said Pettijohn, pointing to existing conservation measures including \u003ca href=\"https://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/faces/ladwp/aboutus/a-water/a-w-conservation/a-w-c-droughtbusters;jsessionid=R21nhvKYGDWpr99rRxkybMLNCPf91KQ97Ybv5rv54Zypl011DbVz!663354585?_afrLoop=320938500431843&_afrWindowMode=0&_afrWindowId=null#%40%3F_afrWindowId%3Dnull%26_afrLoop%3D320938500431843%26_afrWindowMode%3D0%26_adf.ctrl-state%3Datsadqua0_4\">mandatory outdoor watering restrictions\u003c/a>. “Looking at one month, in one year, compared to the same exact month in the current year, it’s really not a true measure of what the efforts in the city have been.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The current reductions in water use are on top of conservation that has continued since the last drought. In 2020, Californians were already using about 16% less water in their homes and businesses statewide compared to 2013, according to water board data analyst Marielle Pinheiro.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This August was both the hottest and driest on record, according to the governor’s office. And the increased conservation, even during an exceptionally dry month, “is especially significant,” Pinheiro said at the water board meeting today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Once you’ve learned to save water, why turn the water on when you’re brushing your teeth?” said former water board chairperson Felicia Marcus, who led the response during the last drought under former Gov. Jerry Brown. “The glass half full view of that is that messaging is starting to take hold.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, \u003ca href=\"https://waterinthewest.stanford.edu/about/people/newsha-ajami\">Newsha Ajami\u003c/a>, director of Urban Water Policy at Stanford University, was surprised that Newsom didn’t declare a statewide water conservation mandate today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We really need to reduce per capita water use significantly in some areas of the state,” she said. “If this drought lingers longer and we end up having a few more dry years we are going to have a lot more communities experiencing water scarcity and water access issues.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>An unknown water year ahead\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Newsom’s announcement today comes at a pivotal moment for California’s water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state just closed out its \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Water-Basics/Drought/Files/Publications-And-Reports/091521-Water-Year-2021-broch_v2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">second-driest water year\u003c/a> on record, with nearly \u003ca href=\"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">88% of California \u003c/a>now in the clutches of extreme drought, or worse. By the end of September, statewide reservoir storage \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Water-Basics/Drought/Files/Publications-And-Reports/091521-Water-Year-2021-broch_v2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">had hit 60% of average\u003c/a>, with Lake Oroville setting a new record low.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s amazing that in the second dry year, we’re in as scary a position if not scarier than what we faced in that last drought. It’s almost beyond comprehension,” Marcus said. “It’s a stunning challenge.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State officials have warned water providers south of the Delta relying on state water allocations that \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/drought-2021/2021/09/california-drought-conservation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">they might be cut off completely\u003c/a> next year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re starting with record low (reservoir) storage,” \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/Executive-Bios-Director\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Karla Nemeth\u003c/a>, director of the state Department of Water Resources, \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/drought-2021/2021/09/california-drought-conservation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said last month\u003c/a>. “We would have to have north of 140% of (average) precipitation to generate average runoff into the reservoirs that would begin filling that hole.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But \u003ca href=\"https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2021/10/19/forecast-rainstorms-could-quell-wildfire-risk-in-santa-cruz-county/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">some experts say\u003c/a> that number is likely an underestimate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, California is on the cusp of its rainy season, when it receives almost all of its yearly precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A series of storms are expected to reach Northern California this week, with another that could unleash some rain over Southern California as soon as this weekend, according to Chad Hecht, a meteorology staff researcher with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Precipitation forecasts range from eight inches in the Sierras over the next seven days, to less than half an inch in Southern California, said \u003ca href=\"https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-welcomes-dr-julie-kalansky/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Julie Kalansky,\u003c/a> the center’s deputy director.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the rain is highly unlikely to substantially refill empty reservoirs, it could help prepare thirsty soils for more rains to come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For these storms, “the runoff from them may not be very high, but they’ll help moisten the soils. So if we get more, hopefully you get more runoff that can go into reservoirs or streams and ecosystems,” Kalansky said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the water year ahead remains murky: Cooler than average temperatures in the tropical Pacific herald the arrival of La Niña conditions, which \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center\u003c/a> reports have an 87% chance of continuing between December and February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>La Niña can stir up storm tracks, changing how much precipitation falls on California. But the results vary — especially for Northern California — making it difficult to predict what this means for rain and snowfall in the northern two-thirds of the state, Kalansky said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Southern California, on the other hand, La Niña tends to foretell a drier year. “It doesn’t mean that we’re necessarily going to have a really dry year, but we typically don’t get really wet years when it’s a La Niña,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Overall, Kalansky said, “it’s still yet to be decided on whether or not this year is going to be wet or dry and what this means for drought. We just don’t have those answers yet.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Gov. Newsom expands the California drought emergency from 50 counties to statewide, but does not order mandatory water conservation. He did authorize water regulators to ban wasteful water use, such as spraying down public sidewalks.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704846400,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mmBVo/1/"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":33,"wordCount":1348},"headData":{"title":"Newsom Declares Drought Emergency Across California | KQED","description":"Gov. Newsom expands the California drought emergency from 50 counties to statewide, but does not order mandatory water conservation. He did authorize water regulators to ban wasteful water use, such as spraying down public sidewalks.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"CalMatters","sticky":false,"nprByline":"Rachel Becker \u003cbr />CalMatters\u003cbr>","path":"/science/1977196/newsom-declares-drought-emergency-across-california","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a drought emergency for the entire state of California, as conservation efforts continue to fall far short of state targets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.gov.ca.gov/2021/10/19/governor-newsom-expands-drought-emergency-statewide-urges-californians-to-redouble-water-conservation-efforts/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Newsom also authorized\u003c/a> California’s water regulators to ban wasteful water use, such as spraying down public sidewalks, and directed his Office of Emergency Services to fund drinking water as needed. But he stopped short of issuing any statewide conservation mandates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As the western U.S. faces a potential third year of drought, it’s critical that Californians across the state redouble our efforts to save water in every way possible,” Newsom said in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yesterday’s announcement extends drought emergencies, \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/07/california-water-use-drought/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">already declared in 50 counties\u003c/a>, to the eight remaining counties where conditions had thus far not been deemed severe enough: Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Imperial, San Francisco and Ventura.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The emergency declarations are aimed at easing responses to the deepening drought — such as emergency bottled water purchases or construction to bolster water supplies — by reducing environmental and other regulations. Under the proclamation, local water suppliers must begin preparing for the possibility of a dry year ahead.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We think we’ll be able to manage through this year,” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-pettijohn-bb521592/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">David Pettijohn\u003c/a>, director of water resources at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. “Next year is the issue. And we don’t know what the water year is going to look like. Nobody can predict the weather.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But California’s water watchers say that without a conservation mandate, California is losing time, and water. “We know mandates are more effective than voluntary calls,” said \u003ca href=\"https://pacinst.org/team/heather-cooley/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Heather Cooley\u003c/a>, director of research at the Pacific Institute, a global water think tank. “It takes time to ramp up, and because of the delay in asking Californians to save water this spring, we are further behind than we should be.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3 id=\"h-conservation-improving-but-still-short-of-goals\">Conservation improving, but still short of goals\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>New data released by the State Water Resources Control Board reveals that Californians cut their water use at home by 5% in August compared to August 2020, an improvement \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/drought-2021/2021/09/california-drought-conservation/\">over the reductions of less than 2% in July\u003c/a> but still far short of the voluntary \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/07/california-water-use-drought/\">15% cuts\u003c/a> Newsom urged in July.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The hard-hit North Coast, where the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/04/governor-drought-emergency-in-northwestern-counties/\">first drought emergencies\u003c/a> were declared in April, continued to show the biggest drops in household water use — with an 18.3% decrease compared to August of last year. Conservation numbers tapered off moving south, with the San Francisco Bay Area conserving nearly 10% more water than last August.\u003cbr>\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mmBVo/1/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"800\" height=\"800\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The South Coast region — which includes Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego and Ventura counties — showed an improvement over July, when water use was roughly even with last year. In August, residents used about 3.1% less water than they did in August 2020.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those numbers are a little bit misleading, frankly,” said Pettijohn, pointing to existing conservation measures including \u003ca href=\"https://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/faces/ladwp/aboutus/a-water/a-w-conservation/a-w-c-droughtbusters;jsessionid=R21nhvKYGDWpr99rRxkybMLNCPf91KQ97Ybv5rv54Zypl011DbVz!663354585?_afrLoop=320938500431843&_afrWindowMode=0&_afrWindowId=null#%40%3F_afrWindowId%3Dnull%26_afrLoop%3D320938500431843%26_afrWindowMode%3D0%26_adf.ctrl-state%3Datsadqua0_4\">mandatory outdoor watering restrictions\u003c/a>. “Looking at one month, in one year, compared to the same exact month in the current year, it’s really not a true measure of what the efforts in the city have been.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The current reductions in water use are on top of conservation that has continued since the last drought. In 2020, Californians were already using about 16% less water in their homes and businesses statewide compared to 2013, according to water board data analyst Marielle Pinheiro.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This August was both the hottest and driest on record, according to the governor’s office. And the increased conservation, even during an exceptionally dry month, “is especially significant,” Pinheiro said at the water board meeting today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Once you’ve learned to save water, why turn the water on when you’re brushing your teeth?” said former water board chairperson Felicia Marcus, who led the response during the last drought under former Gov. Jerry Brown. “The glass half full view of that is that messaging is starting to take hold.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, \u003ca href=\"https://waterinthewest.stanford.edu/about/people/newsha-ajami\">Newsha Ajami\u003c/a>, director of Urban Water Policy at Stanford University, was surprised that Newsom didn’t declare a statewide water conservation mandate today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We really need to reduce per capita water use significantly in some areas of the state,” she said. “If this drought lingers longer and we end up having a few more dry years we are going to have a lot more communities experiencing water scarcity and water access issues.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>An unknown water year ahead\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Newsom’s announcement today comes at a pivotal moment for California’s water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state just closed out its \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Water-Basics/Drought/Files/Publications-And-Reports/091521-Water-Year-2021-broch_v2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">second-driest water year\u003c/a> on record, with nearly \u003ca href=\"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">88% of California \u003c/a>now in the clutches of extreme drought, or worse. By the end of September, statewide reservoir storage \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Water-Basics/Drought/Files/Publications-And-Reports/091521-Water-Year-2021-broch_v2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">had hit 60% of average\u003c/a>, with Lake Oroville setting a new record low.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s amazing that in the second dry year, we’re in as scary a position if not scarier than what we faced in that last drought. It’s almost beyond comprehension,” Marcus said. “It’s a stunning challenge.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State officials have warned water providers south of the Delta relying on state water allocations that \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/drought-2021/2021/09/california-drought-conservation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">they might be cut off completely\u003c/a> next year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re starting with record low (reservoir) storage,” \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/Executive-Bios-Director\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Karla Nemeth\u003c/a>, director of the state Department of Water Resources, \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/drought-2021/2021/09/california-drought-conservation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said last month\u003c/a>. “We would have to have north of 140% of (average) precipitation to generate average runoff into the reservoirs that would begin filling that hole.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But \u003ca href=\"https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2021/10/19/forecast-rainstorms-could-quell-wildfire-risk-in-santa-cruz-county/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">some experts say\u003c/a> that number is likely an underestimate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, California is on the cusp of its rainy season, when it receives almost all of its yearly precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A series of storms are expected to reach Northern California this week, with another that could unleash some rain over Southern California as soon as this weekend, according to Chad Hecht, a meteorology staff researcher with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Precipitation forecasts range from eight inches in the Sierras over the next seven days, to less than half an inch in Southern California, said \u003ca href=\"https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-welcomes-dr-julie-kalansky/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Julie Kalansky,\u003c/a> the center’s deputy director.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the rain is highly unlikely to substantially refill empty reservoirs, it could help prepare thirsty soils for more rains to come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For these storms, “the runoff from them may not be very high, but they’ll help moisten the soils. So if we get more, hopefully you get more runoff that can go into reservoirs or streams and ecosystems,” Kalansky said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the water year ahead remains murky: Cooler than average temperatures in the tropical Pacific herald the arrival of La Niña conditions, which \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center\u003c/a> reports have an 87% chance of continuing between December and February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>La Niña can stir up storm tracks, changing how much precipitation falls on California. But the results vary — especially for Northern California — making it difficult to predict what this means for rain and snowfall in the northern two-thirds of the state, Kalansky said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Southern California, on the other hand, La Niña tends to foretell a drier year. “It doesn’t mean that we’re necessarily going to have a really dry year, but we typically don’t get really wet years when it’s a La Niña,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Overall, Kalansky said, “it’s still yet to be decided on whether or not this year is going to be wet or dry and what this means for drought. We just don’t have those answers yet.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1977196/newsom-declares-drought-emergency-across-california","authors":["byline_science_1977196"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40","science_4450","science_98"],"tags":["science_3969","science_572","science_1213","science_365"],"featImg":"science_1977201","label":"source_science_1977196"},"science_1937133":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1937133","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1937133","score":null,"sort":[1548373402000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"580-billion-gallons-thats-how-much-water-recent-storms-added-to-california-reservoirs","title":"580 Billion Gallons. That's How Much Water Was Added to Reservoirs by Recent Storms","publishDate":1548373402,"format":"standard","headTitle":"580 Billion Gallons. That’s How Much Water Was Added to Reservoirs by Recent Storms | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>The round of \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1936853/here-comes-the-big-bay-area-storm-dangerous-blizzard-conditions-in-sierra-nevada\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">storms\u003c/a> that soaked California in recent weeks has brought a huge influx of water to the state. According to a \u003ca href=\"https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/01/23/california-rainfall-reservoir-level-sierra-snow/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new analysis\u003c/a> by The Mercury News, California reservoirs are now holding an additional 580 billion gallons compared to the start of the year. And the \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/Sierra-snow-pack-size-percent-of-average-2019-13552288.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">snowpack\u003c/a> also got a big boost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report utilized data from 47 key reservoirs monitored by the \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">state\u003c/a>. Mercury News reporter and KQED Science Managing Editor Paul Rogers reported the story, which was published Wednesday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rogers spoke with KQED Science Editor Danielle Venton about the analysis and what it means for the state’s water supply. Here are excerpts from that conversation edited for length and clarity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>580 billion gallons sounds like a lot of water. Is there a way to put that into context?\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The amount of water we’re talking about is enough for the needs of 9 million California residents for a year.\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What does this influx signal for the state’s water supply in 2019?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That is really good news for California’s summer water outlook. The amount of water that we had stored in these reservoirs was below the historical average until the January storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We had kind of a lackluster November and December. Now with all this rain and snow, the the reservoir levels are brought up to normal [for this time of year].\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It also had a huge impact on the Sierra snowpack, which went from 69 percent of normal on New Year’s Day to 114 percent of normal today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>California’s three wettest months are December through February. Given it’s still January, how important are the current totals?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After the misery of the five-year drought we had recently, just getting anywhere near normal is cause for celebration for a lot of water managers and water agencies around the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s Danielle Venton and Peter Arcuni contributed to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The round of storms that soaked California in recent weeks has brought a huge influx of water to the state, according to a new analysis by The Mercury News.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927183,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":333},"headData":{"title":"580 Billion Gallons. That's How Much Water Was Added to Reservoirs by Recent Storms | KQED","description":"The round of storms that soaked California in recent weeks has brought a huge influx of water to the state, according to a new analysis by The Mercury News.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"Science","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1937133/580-billion-gallons-thats-how-much-water-recent-storms-added-to-california-reservoirs","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The round of \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1936853/here-comes-the-big-bay-area-storm-dangerous-blizzard-conditions-in-sierra-nevada\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">storms\u003c/a> that soaked California in recent weeks has brought a huge influx of water to the state. According to a \u003ca href=\"https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/01/23/california-rainfall-reservoir-level-sierra-snow/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new analysis\u003c/a> by The Mercury News, California reservoirs are now holding an additional 580 billion gallons compared to the start of the year. And the \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/Sierra-snow-pack-size-percent-of-average-2019-13552288.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">snowpack\u003c/a> also got a big boost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report utilized data from 47 key reservoirs monitored by the \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">state\u003c/a>. Mercury News reporter and KQED Science Managing Editor Paul Rogers reported the story, which was published Wednesday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rogers spoke with KQED Science Editor Danielle Venton about the analysis and what it means for the state’s water supply. Here are excerpts from that conversation edited for length and clarity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>580 billion gallons sounds like a lot of water. Is there a way to put that into context?\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The amount of water we’re talking about is enough for the needs of 9 million California residents for a year.\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What does this influx signal for the state’s water supply in 2019?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That is really good news for California’s summer water outlook. The amount of water that we had stored in these reservoirs was below the historical average until the January storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We had kind of a lackluster November and December. Now with all this rain and snow, the the reservoir levels are brought up to normal [for this time of year].\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It also had a huge impact on the Sierra snowpack, which went from 69 percent of normal on New Year’s Day to 114 percent of normal today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>California’s three wettest months are December through February. Given it’s still January, how important are the current totals?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After the misery of the five-year drought we had recently, just getting anywhere near normal is cause for celebration for a lot of water managers and water agencies around the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s Danielle Venton and Peter Arcuni contributed to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1937133/580-billion-gallons-thats-how-much-water-recent-storms-added-to-california-reservoirs","authors":["6387"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40","science_98"],"tags":["science_3841","science_3180","science_572","science_3370","science_3834","science_1213","science_1127","science_2878","science_365"],"featImg":"science_1934744","label":"source_science_1937133"},"science_1931965":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1931965","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1931965","score":null,"sort":[1538420441000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"an-early-rain-could-be-coming-by-monday","title":"Bay Area Gets Some Rain But Wildfire Risk Remains High","publishDate":1538420441,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Bay Area Gets Some Rain But Wildfire Risk Remains High | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>After several dry months, the Bay Area might get some rainfall this week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service forecast the region will get between 0.25 and 0.50 inches on Monday night into early Tuesday. Isolated rain of one inch or more “cannot be ruled out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That would be the first precipitation for San Francisco in four months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1046746552109330434\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Saturday, light showers fell on Sonoma and Marin counties while San Mateo and Santa Clara counties saw some drizzle .\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>October is when the region typically starts transitioning to wetter weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the risk of wildfire remains high, according to fire experts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re not letting our guard down,” says Cal Fire Deputy Chief Scott McLean. “It’s looking great now as far as weather, but (the weather) is starting to wane in terms of rainfall.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>September and October are historically the worst months for wildfires, according to Mclean, with seven of the state’s 10 worst fires having occurred in October.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A little bit of rainfall is not going to make much of a difference because everything is just so dry,” McLean said. “It’s going to take several years of winters to bring California to that plateau where plant life is not as dry.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area is listed as “abnormally dry” \u003ca href=\"https://www.drought.gov/drought/data-maps-tools/current-conditions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">by the federal government\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The cooling trend the region is currently seeing will be replaced by warmer temperatures later this week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area has had seasonably warm weather lately, with temperatures in the 80s and 90s. October and November are typically when the Bay Area begins to experience cooler weather.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"After six months without rain, the Bay Area is finally getting some cooler and possibly damper conditions, thanks to a pair of weather systems sweeping across the region.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927441,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":285},"headData":{"title":"Bay Area Gets Some Rain But Wildfire Risk Remains High | KQED","description":"After six months without rain, the Bay Area is finally getting some cooler and possibly damper conditions, thanks to a pair of weather systems sweeping across the region.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"Climate","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1931965/an-early-rain-could-be-coming-by-monday","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>After several dry months, the Bay Area might get some rainfall this week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service forecast the region will get between 0.25 and 0.50 inches on Monday night into early Tuesday. Isolated rain of one inch or more “cannot be ruled out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That would be the first precipitation for San Francisco in four months.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1046746552109330434"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>On Saturday, light showers fell on Sonoma and Marin counties while San Mateo and Santa Clara counties saw some drizzle .\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>October is when the region typically starts transitioning to wetter weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the risk of wildfire remains high, according to fire experts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re not letting our guard down,” says Cal Fire Deputy Chief Scott McLean. “It’s looking great now as far as weather, but (the weather) is starting to wane in terms of rainfall.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>September and October are historically the worst months for wildfires, according to Mclean, with seven of the state’s 10 worst fires having occurred in October.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A little bit of rainfall is not going to make much of a difference because everything is just so dry,” McLean said. “It’s going to take several years of winters to bring California to that plateau where plant life is not as dry.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area is listed as “abnormally dry” \u003ca href=\"https://www.drought.gov/drought/data-maps-tools/current-conditions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">by the federal government\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The cooling trend the region is currently seeing will be replaced by warmer temperatures later this week.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area has had seasonably warm weather lately, with temperatures in the 80s and 90s. October and November are typically when the Bay Area begins to experience cooler weather.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1931965/an-early-rain-could-be-coming-by-monday","authors":["11428"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40"],"tags":["science_856","science_1213","science_365"],"featImg":"science_1931972","label":"source_science_1931965"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? 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Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. 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