2022 Promises Continued Climate Extremes, But Also A Glimmer of Hope for Californians
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She is a 2013 graduate of Brooklyn Law School and is currently researching war on terror prosecutions for an upcoming book.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/c8b48ebc98e770640f3013c470d23f3e?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":"amelscript","facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"futureofyou","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]}],"headData":{"title":"Amel Ahmed | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/c8b48ebc98e770640f3013c470d23f3e?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/c8b48ebc98e770640f3013c470d23f3e?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/aahmed"},"eromero":{"type":"authors","id":"11746","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"11746","found":true},"name":"Ezra David Romero","firstName":"Ezra David","lastName":"Romero","slug":"eromero","email":"eromero@kqed.org","display_author_email":true,"staff_mastheads":["news","science"],"title":"Climate Reporter","bio":"Ezra David Romero is a climate reporter for KQED News. He covers the absence and excess of water in the Bay Area — think sea level rise, flooding and drought. For nearly a decade he’s covered how warming temperatures are altering the lives of Californians. He’s reported on farmers worried their pistachio trees aren’t getting enough sleep, families desperate for water, scientists studying dying giant sequoias, and alongside firefighters containing wildfires. His work has appeared on local stations across California and nationally on public radio shows like Morning Edition, Here and Now, All Things Considered and Science Friday. ","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9c15bb8bab267e058708a9eeaeef16bf?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":"ezraromero","facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"news","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]}],"headData":{"title":"Ezra David Romero | KQED","description":"Climate Reporter","ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9c15bb8bab267e058708a9eeaeef16bf?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9c15bb8bab267e058708a9eeaeef16bf?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/eromero"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"news","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"science_1978046":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1978046","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1978046","score":null,"sort":[1641061248000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"2022-promises-continued-climate-extremes-but-also-a-glimmer-of-hope-for-californians","title":"2022 Promises Continued Climate Extremes, But Also A Glimmer of Hope for Californians","publishDate":1641061248,"format":"image","headTitle":"2022 Promises Continued Climate Extremes, But Also A Glimmer of Hope for Californians | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>It’s a brand new year, and perhaps you have hopeful resolutions in mind—losing weight, getting politically active, leaving your house more often.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But when you look over your shoulder, the demon that was 2021 is lurking behind you. In its eyes is the pandemic that kept you in your house for way too long, on its breath are the flames that nearly burned down your favorite part of the Sierra, the sweltering heat from last summer, and the wildfire smoke choking out the space in your lungs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size='medium' align='right' citation='Kristina Hill, UC Berkeley']“We should be planning now while things are stable, instead of running around treating it as a disaster in 20 years.”[/pullquote]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We can’t promise 2022 will be that much better, but we can let you in on a little secret: There’s a lot of work happening and billions of dollars available to help Californians withstand the worst of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://lao.ca.gov/staff/AssignmentDetail/223\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Rachel Ehlers\u003c/a>, principal fiscal and policy analyst for the Legislative Analyst’s Office, says billions are set aside in the state budget over three years for adapting to climate change, including money for drought, wildfire, and environmental justice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What got climate on the front of everyone’s mind is that we had so many climate disasters last summer,” she said. “The silver lining is it is being taken as a big priority, to help avoid some of the bad impacts on the horizon.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And there are impacts on the horizon. Stanford climate scientist \u003ca href=\"https://earth.stanford.edu/people/noah-diffenbaugh#gs.kvl2oc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Noah Diffenbaugh\u003c/a> says Californians should get used to climate extremes like flooding, minimal snowpacks, and extreme heat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are in a climate where we’ve had so much warming already that some of these factors are becoming much more reliable predictions,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With years of inclement weather and climate events, Ehlers says Californians know what’s coming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What can we do now to prepare,” she asked. “So, we don’t have people losing their homes in big wildfires or have significant health impacts because it’s too hot.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size='medium' align='right' citation='Michael Méndez, UC Irvine']‘If we really want to tackle climate change and our dependence on fossil fuel as an economy, directly addressing our oil production and oil imports is a key factor for our state.’[/pullquote] Ehlers says billions of dollars in the federal infrastructure bill could \u003ca href=\"https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/CALIFORNIA_The-Infrastructure-Investment-and-Jobs-Act-State-Fact-Sheet.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">infuse California\u003c/a> with money to ready roads and bridges for a changing climate. There are also millions to protect infrastructure against wildfires, deliver clean drinking water to communities, and expand an electric vehicle charging network across the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even with the infusion of cash, Ehlers cautions that throwing money at climate impacts isn’t a cure for the root cause of atmospheric warming — burning fossil fuels. And just because we have the dollars doesn’t preclude \u003ca class=\"c-link\" href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1977844/im-ready-to-act-on-climate-do-i-start-big-or-small\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1977844/im-ready-to-act-on-climate-do-i-start-big-or-small\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\" data-remove-tab-index=\"true\">actions each of us can take to calm the storm ahead of us\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.michaelanthonymendez.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Michael Méndez\u003c/a>, author of the book “\u003ca href=\"https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300232158/climate-change-streets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Climate Change from the Streets\u003c/a>,” says people can vote and pressure local, state and federal leaders to act on climate change and phasing out fossil fuels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If people care about climate change and environmental issues, it’s important, they stay active and educated about who’s running for office,” he said. “Many people think that their vote doesn’t count, but we see it does count.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a glimpse of what 2022 holds for California climate-wise, click the links below.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"backtotop\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca href=\"#question1\">Weather\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question2\">Drought\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question3\">Wildfire\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question4\">Environmental Justice\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question5\">Oil & Gas\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question6\">Energy\u003c/a>| \u003ca href=\"#question7\">Electric Cars\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question8\">Sea Level Rise\u003c/a>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Weather\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1978125\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-scaled.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1978125\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-800x529.jpg\" alt=\"Curtains of water spray up on both sides of a truck driving on a flooded street in October 2021 in Mill Valley. \" width=\"800\" height=\"529\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-800x529.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-1020x675.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-768x508.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-1536x1016.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-2048x1355.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-1920x1270.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Water kicks up as a truck drives on a flooded street in October 2021 in Mill Valley. A category 5 atmospheric river brought heavy precipitation, high winds and power outages to the San Francisco Bay Area. \u003ccite>(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>2021 has been a year: A dry winter, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-09/california-records-hottest-summer-amid-heat-wave-flex-alert\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hottest summer on record\u003c/a>, wildfires, and atmospheric rivers. Brian Garcia, a warning meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bay Area\u003c/a> office, says he’s excited to see California start the year soggy and wet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For 2022, I would expect much more normal conditions than we’ve seen over the past few years, but also expect a warmer-than-normal summer,” Garcia said. He also says long-term climate models signal a dry-out in late January or February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there may be less time to prepare for storms and heat waves. A \u003ca href=\"https://news.stanford.edu/2021/12/14/warming-makes-weather-less-predictable/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">recent study\u003c/a> from Stanford professor \u003ca href=\"https://profiles.stanford.edu/aditi-sheshadri\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Aditi Sheshadri\u003c/a> found warming is making it harder to predict 10-day forecasts accurately.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So, if we know that the window of accurate predictability is going to reduce as we go forward, that is valuable knowledge for anyone who has to respond to changing weather conditions, whether it’s extreme or not,” she said.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question2\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Drought\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1975263\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1975263\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/06/oroville-drought_custom-21f30a6c6bd7d461408a015ffe94746ec6b5cd7e-1020x679.jpg\" alt=\"In an aerial view, low water levels are visible at Lake Oroville on April 27, 2021 in Oroville, California.\" width=\"640\" height=\"426\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Low water levels were visible at Lake Oroville on April 27, 2021. \u003ccite>(Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>While 2022 is starting as wet and balmy, California needs \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1977196/newsom-declares-drought-emergency-across-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">140% of average rain\u003c/a> and snow to get reservoir levels back to average. Even with recent rains, large reservoirs the state relies on for water supply, such as Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, are still below average. But the rain has filled some small reservoirs to above-average levels; for example, Marin’s reservoir levels noticeably rise with each storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One person who’d like to see stricter drought restrictions this year is \u003ca href=\"https://waterinthewest.stanford.edu/about/people/newsha-ajami\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Newsha Ajami\u003c/a>. She’s the director of urban water policy for Stanford University’s Water in the West initiative. She says all the bouncing between weather extremes is just not working for California’s aging water system, built for a climate that does not exist anymore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She’s concerned heat waves will melt the Sierra Nevada snowpack and dry out wildlands early. That’s a large part of what exacerbated the scale of the drought and wildfires in 2021.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m looking into 2022, thinking, this is great, we are seeing another atmospheric river, lots of rain, some snow in the mountains, but I’m hoping and praying that we are not going to be hit with another heatwave that would melt all of this,” she said.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question3\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Wildfire\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1975975\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1975975\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-1020x671.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"421\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-1020x671.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-800x526.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-160x105.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-768x505.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-1536x1010.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A home burns as flames from the Dixie fire tear through the Indian Falls neighborhood of unincorporated Plumas County, California on July 24, 2021. Rising temperatures are drying out forests, priming them for big fires. \u003ccite>(JOSH EDELSON/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The 2021 fire season was truly ferocious, and over the past year, the sheer scale of the fires shifted the public consciousness. Californians realized how we fight wildfires isn’t working. As a result, state leaders created policy goals and \u003ca href=\"https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/09/16/prescribed-burns-could-help-reduce-californias-wildfires-a-new-bill-could-help-make-planned-fires-more-frequent/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">laws\u003c/a> to make it easier for fire experts to light controlled \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11887158/in-california-restoring-our-relationship-with-fire-is-possible\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">good fires\u003c/a> that clear excess vegetation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wildfire experts are still concerned that large, impossible-to-control wildfires will ignite again in the early summer months through the fall. \u003ca href=\"https://www.eri.ucsb.edu/people/leila-m-v-carvalho\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Leila Carvalho\u003c/a>, a UC Santa Barbara professor of meteorology and climatology, says long-term climate trends—like heat waves drying out vegetation early in the year or drier springs—will continue throughout 2022.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Major fires will happen,” she said. “The cycles tend to repeat when we have the right conditions of winds and ignitions.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Carvalho is hopeful for two significant reasons. First, the state has set aside more than a \u003ca href=\"https://apnews.com/article/business-health-fires-climate-california-eec48e6279099449851b3c7f150cda33\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">billion dollars\u003c/a> to strategically remove brush and trees to rescue catastrophic wildfires. Second, so many scientists are studying the effects climate change and historic fire suppression has on drying wildland areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People are trying to find solutions to mitigate and adapt because we have to deal with these swinging extremes in climate,” she said. “I’m hopeful that we are perhaps dealing with problems in ways we haven’t been doing before.”\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question4\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Environmental Justice\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Communities already dealing with the effects of climate change stand to benefit from $100 million in state funds to establish community resilience hubs where people can go when climate emergencies strike. The hubs will be permanent neighborhood-based facilities — youth centers, churches, senior centers — that can provide emergency response, including backup power, food, economic assistance, internet services and a respite from smoke-filled air.[pullquote size='medium' align='right' citation='Alvaro Sanchez, Greenlining Institute']“The fact that we’re still hitting up against political barriers to make the progress that we need to make just indicates how hard this is and how much growth we still need to have when it comes to addressing these challenges head-on.”[/pullquote]Still, \u003ca href=\"https://greenlining.org/about/our-team/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alvaro Sanchez\u003c/a>, policy director for the Greenlining Institute, says the funds only “scratch the surface” of what’s needed for low-income communities as swings in weather increase.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He says the legislature failed to advance a bill that would have sped up meeting California’s climate goals.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The fact that we’re still hitting up against political barriers to make the progress that we need to make just indicates how hard this is and how much growth we still need to have when it comes to addressing these challenges head-on,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sanchez is excited that the state and two environmental justice-oriented groups are collaborating to develop a mapping platform that identifies the places most likely to flood, burn, dry out, etc. The maps will consider socioeconomic status, a factor that puts some populations at a greater risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is going to take some time to develop, but it’s going to be what keeps California in the forefront on the way that we’re addressing climate change and bringing intersectional perspectives into the climate conversation,” he said.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question5\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Oil & Gas\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1946654\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1946654\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-1020x701.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"440\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-1020x701.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-160x110.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-800x550.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-768x528.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-1200x824.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Smoke drifts away from a Shell Oil refinery April 1, 2004 in Martinez, California. \u003ccite>(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>There were two milestones in 2021 for phasing out fossil fuels in California: Newsom \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/04/newsom-ban-new-oil-fracking/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">banned new oil fracking by 2024\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.com/2021/12/06/oil-rig-setback-rule-doesnt-go-far-enough/%3famp=1\">drafted\u003c/a> a ban on new oil and gas wells sometime after 2023 within 3,200 feet of homes, schools, or healthcare facilities. Even so, Michael Méndez, an assistant professor of environmental planning and policy at UC Irvine, says California isn’t doing enough. The state is the 7th largest crude oil producer in the county.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we really want to tackle climate change and our dependence on fossil fuel as an economy, directly addressing our oil production and oil imports is a key factor for our state,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Méndez is also looking forward to California beginning a conversation about updating its climate roadmap this year. He says a crucial part of the plan will be ensuring that California’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1972789/california-says-it-will-review-cap-and-trade-amid-growing-criticism\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">cap-and-trade\u003c/a> system, which puts a price on carbon, actually lowers carbon emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m not sure if we should totally scrap the cap-and-trade program, but it needs a thorough public reevaluation in the legislature,” he said. “Are these market based systems happening at the expense of immediate public health outcomes and improvements for low-income communities of color?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Méndez says there’s a growing concern that the cap-and-trade is an insufficient policy because it allows “polluting industries to pay to pollute in communities without changing their practices.” And a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1975164/california-not-doing-as-well-as-it-thinks-in-reducing-carbon-investigation-finds\">report\u003c/a> last summer found that millions of carbon credits from the program do not represent real reductions in planet-warming gas emissions.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question6\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Energy\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Decisions that both eased and further complicated renewable energy marked 2021—think of plans for offshore wind and reducing the rate at which homeowners can sell extra electricity from rooftop solar panels—and lots of work around holding PG&E accountable for starting wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size='medium' align='right' citation='Meredith Fowlie Energy Institute, UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business']‘More and more people are coming to understand the urgency of climate action, but we’re coming to terms with deep divides and social inequalities. The choices we make are going to determine how much it costs and who pays the prices.’[/pullquote]Energy experts say there will be a ramping up of greening the grid this year. California is also hosting an in-person offshore wind industry \u003ca href=\"https://www.offshorewindca.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">conference\u003c/a> in March in San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.meredithfowlie.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Meredith Fowlie\u003c/a>, faculty director of the Energy Institute at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, says as the electricity sector further decarbonizes and renewable energy options expand in 2022, California needs to make sure the clean energy transition is equitable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“More and more people are coming to understand the urgency of climate action, but we’re coming to terms with deep divides and social inequalities,” she said. “The choices we make are going to determine how much it costs and who pays the prices.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As companies like PG&E put transmission lines underground to prevent catastrophic wildfires, the cost will likely extend to ratepayers, says \u003ca href=\"https://erg.berkeley.edu/people/callaway-duncan/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Duncan Callaway\u003c/a>, an associate professor of Energy and Resources at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It will be harder for customers to justify purchasing that new electrified appliance or car because the cost to charge or run their electric heat pump will be too high,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The last piece of exciting energy news to start off 2022 is that California is beginning to work on a Fifth Climate Assessment. \u003ca href=\"https://erg.berkeley.edu/people/andrew-d-jones/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Andy Jones\u003c/a>, an earth scientist in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley, is helping build a tool to take the terabytes of data electricity companies and agencies have “about the future climate and extract useful knowledge from all of that.”\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question7\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Electric Cars\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1931178\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1931178\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-1020x574.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-960x540.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-240x135.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-375x211.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-520x293.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Electric cars are growing in the Bay Area but are only 6 percent of new vehicle sales statewide. \u003ccite>(Anne Wernikoff)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Petty much no one’s trying to kill the electric car these days— at least, not in California — and in 2022, Ford is even releasing an \u003ca href=\"https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/19/all-electric-ford-f-150-lightning.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">electric version\u003c/a> of the popular Ford F-150.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In the US, where we love trucks, it’s really important that people who drive those vehicles really want to drive the electric versions of them,” said \u003ca href=\"https://faculty.engineering.ucdavis.edu/kendall/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alissa Kendall\u003c/a>. She studies electric cars as chair of the Energy Graduate Group at UC Davis. “I think that’s what we’re going to see in 2022, a positive and exciting shift.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Kendall says what’s missing from the zero-emission vehicle conversation are ways to make electric vehicles accessible, affordable, and convenient for low-income people. A \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/11/california-must-ensure-ev-charging-access-for-all/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">coalition\u003c/a> of elected officials, companies, and advocacy groups want all new multi-unit family housing to come with electric vehicle charging.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kendall thinks 2022 could be a year where there’s increased investment in charging stations in areas accessible to all Californians, not just for homeowners or businesses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We still have a big access issue,” she said of both electrified public transportation and electric cars. “How do we deliver transit that actually decreases the burdens of pollution on communities already experiencing disproportionate burdens?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kendall says California has a few big things to figure out in 2022, including what to do with car batteries at the end of their lives and how to source and produce materials to make batteries instate.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question8\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Sea Level Rise\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1955614\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1955614\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-1020x679.jpg\" alt=\"King Tide along San Francisco's Embarcadero, in February 2011.\" width=\"640\" height=\"426\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-1200x799.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">King Tide along San Francisco’s Embarcadero, in February 2011. \u003ccite>(Dave R/Flickr)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Rising tides resulting from warming temperatures globally is a major climate impact the state can prepare for—even with the \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/14/world/noaa-climate-change-arctic-report/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">news\u003c/a> late last year that the Arctic is rapidly losing ice—because the worst effects won’t come for decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ced.berkeley.edu/ced/faculty-staff/kristina-hill\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kristina Hill\u003c/a>, director of the Institute for Urban and Regional Development at UC Berkeley, says it’s essential to plan now for sea-level rise; otherwise, the Bay Area will undergo similar devastation mountain communities are enduring from wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We should be planning now while things are stable, instead of running around treating it as a disaster in 20 years, which it will be if we don’t plan ahead, because the rate of change is accelerating,” she said. “This is the last period when it’s going to feel slow. After this, it’s going to be fast for hundreds of years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the Bay Area is beginning to prepare for rising tides. Counties, agencies, nonprofits and cities are collaborating \u003ca href=\"https://www.bayadapt.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">to prepare for sea level rise as one region\u003c/a>. San Mateo County is planning an entire \u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">shoreline protection project\u003c/a>, and university scientists are researching how to prepare the most vulnerable residents for \u003ca href=\"https://sites.google.com/berkeley.edu/toxictides\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">rising water levels\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://sites.google.com/berkeley.edu/toxictides\"> \u003c/a>(groundwater and the sea).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The one area Hill says needs to be taken seriously this year is that sea level rise can cause groundwater flooding and make existing contamination worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re already seeing evidence of that water coming up out of manholes and Alameda and San Leandro,” she said. “That water is rising with the high tides, under contaminated sites. It’s entering sewer pipes, it’s going to cause impacts to infrastructure, and it’s going to expose people to more health risks, from contaminants that are moving in the groundwater.”\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Take a look back at big climate and environmental events of 2021, and some hopeful forecasts for 2022. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704846340,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":59,"wordCount":2979},"headData":{"title":"2022 Promises Continued Climate Extremes, But Also A Glimmer of Hope for Californians | KQED","description":"Take a look back at big climate and environmental events of 2021, and some hopeful forecasts for 2022. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"2022 Promises Continued Climate Extremes, But Also A Glimmer of Hope for Californians","datePublished":"2022-01-01T18:20:48.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:25:40.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Climate Change","sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","path":"/science/1978046/2022-promises-continued-climate-extremes-but-also-a-glimmer-of-hope-for-californians","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>It’s a brand new year, and perhaps you have hopeful resolutions in mind—losing weight, getting politically active, leaving your house more often.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But when you look over your shoulder, the demon that was 2021 is lurking behind you. In its eyes is the pandemic that kept you in your house for way too long, on its breath are the flames that nearly burned down your favorite part of the Sierra, the sweltering heat from last summer, and the wildfire smoke choking out the space in your lungs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"“We should be planning now while things are stable, instead of running around treating it as a disaster in 20 years.”","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Kristina Hill, UC Berkeley","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We can’t promise 2022 will be that much better, but we can let you in on a little secret: There’s a lot of work happening and billions of dollars available to help Californians withstand the worst of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://lao.ca.gov/staff/AssignmentDetail/223\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Rachel Ehlers\u003c/a>, principal fiscal and policy analyst for the Legislative Analyst’s Office, says billions are set aside in the state budget over three years for adapting to climate change, including money for drought, wildfire, and environmental justice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What got climate on the front of everyone’s mind is that we had so many climate disasters last summer,” she said. “The silver lining is it is being taken as a big priority, to help avoid some of the bad impacts on the horizon.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And there are impacts on the horizon. Stanford climate scientist \u003ca href=\"https://earth.stanford.edu/people/noah-diffenbaugh#gs.kvl2oc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Noah Diffenbaugh\u003c/a> says Californians should get used to climate extremes like flooding, minimal snowpacks, and extreme heat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are in a climate where we’ve had so much warming already that some of these factors are becoming much more reliable predictions,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With years of inclement weather and climate events, Ehlers says Californians know what’s coming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What can we do now to prepare,” she asked. “So, we don’t have people losing their homes in big wildfires or have significant health impacts because it’s too hot.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘If we really want to tackle climate change and our dependence on fossil fuel as an economy, directly addressing our oil production and oil imports is a key factor for our state.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Michael Méndez, UC Irvine","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp> Ehlers says billions of dollars in the federal infrastructure bill could \u003ca href=\"https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/CALIFORNIA_The-Infrastructure-Investment-and-Jobs-Act-State-Fact-Sheet.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">infuse California\u003c/a> with money to ready roads and bridges for a changing climate. There are also millions to protect infrastructure against wildfires, deliver clean drinking water to communities, and expand an electric vehicle charging network across the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even with the infusion of cash, Ehlers cautions that throwing money at climate impacts isn’t a cure for the root cause of atmospheric warming — burning fossil fuels. And just because we have the dollars doesn’t preclude \u003ca class=\"c-link\" href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1977844/im-ready-to-act-on-climate-do-i-start-big-or-small\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1977844/im-ready-to-act-on-climate-do-i-start-big-or-small\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\" data-remove-tab-index=\"true\">actions each of us can take to calm the storm ahead of us\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.michaelanthonymendez.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Michael Méndez\u003c/a>, author of the book “\u003ca href=\"https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300232158/climate-change-streets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Climate Change from the Streets\u003c/a>,” says people can vote and pressure local, state and federal leaders to act on climate change and phasing out fossil fuels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If people care about climate change and environmental issues, it’s important, they stay active and educated about who’s running for office,” he said. “Many people think that their vote doesn’t count, but we see it does count.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a glimpse of what 2022 holds for California climate-wise, click the links below.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"backtotop\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca href=\"#question1\">Weather\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question2\">Drought\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question3\">Wildfire\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question4\">Environmental Justice\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question5\">Oil & Gas\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question6\">Energy\u003c/a>| \u003ca href=\"#question7\">Electric Cars\u003c/a> | \u003ca href=\"#question8\">Sea Level Rise\u003c/a>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Weather\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1978125\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-scaled.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1978125\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-800x529.jpg\" alt=\"Curtains of water spray up on both sides of a truck driving on a flooded street in October 2021 in Mill Valley. \" width=\"800\" height=\"529\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-800x529.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-1020x675.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-160x106.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-768x508.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-1536x1016.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-2048x1355.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/12/GettyImages-1348746012-1920x1270.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Water kicks up as a truck drives on a flooded street in October 2021 in Mill Valley. A category 5 atmospheric river brought heavy precipitation, high winds and power outages to the San Francisco Bay Area. \u003ccite>(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>2021 has been a year: A dry winter, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-09/california-records-hottest-summer-amid-heat-wave-flex-alert\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hottest summer on record\u003c/a>, wildfires, and atmospheric rivers. Brian Garcia, a warning meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bay Area\u003c/a> office, says he’s excited to see California start the year soggy and wet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For 2022, I would expect much more normal conditions than we’ve seen over the past few years, but also expect a warmer-than-normal summer,” Garcia said. He also says long-term climate models signal a dry-out in late January or February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there may be less time to prepare for storms and heat waves. A \u003ca href=\"https://news.stanford.edu/2021/12/14/warming-makes-weather-less-predictable/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">recent study\u003c/a> from Stanford professor \u003ca href=\"https://profiles.stanford.edu/aditi-sheshadri\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Aditi Sheshadri\u003c/a> found warming is making it harder to predict 10-day forecasts accurately.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So, if we know that the window of accurate predictability is going to reduce as we go forward, that is valuable knowledge for anyone who has to respond to changing weather conditions, whether it’s extreme or not,” she said.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question2\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Drought\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1975263\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1975263\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/06/oroville-drought_custom-21f30a6c6bd7d461408a015ffe94746ec6b5cd7e-1020x679.jpg\" alt=\"In an aerial view, low water levels are visible at Lake Oroville on April 27, 2021 in Oroville, California.\" width=\"640\" height=\"426\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Low water levels were visible at Lake Oroville on April 27, 2021. \u003ccite>(Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>While 2022 is starting as wet and balmy, California needs \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1977196/newsom-declares-drought-emergency-across-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">140% of average rain\u003c/a> and snow to get reservoir levels back to average. Even with recent rains, large reservoirs the state relies on for water supply, such as Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, are still below average. But the rain has filled some small reservoirs to above-average levels; for example, Marin’s reservoir levels noticeably rise with each storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One person who’d like to see stricter drought restrictions this year is \u003ca href=\"https://waterinthewest.stanford.edu/about/people/newsha-ajami\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Newsha Ajami\u003c/a>. She’s the director of urban water policy for Stanford University’s Water in the West initiative. She says all the bouncing between weather extremes is just not working for California’s aging water system, built for a climate that does not exist anymore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She’s concerned heat waves will melt the Sierra Nevada snowpack and dry out wildlands early. That’s a large part of what exacerbated the scale of the drought and wildfires in 2021.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m looking into 2022, thinking, this is great, we are seeing another atmospheric river, lots of rain, some snow in the mountains, but I’m hoping and praying that we are not going to be hit with another heatwave that would melt all of this,” she said.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question3\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Wildfire\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1975975\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1975975\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-1020x671.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"421\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-1020x671.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-800x526.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-160x105.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-768x505.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut-1536x1010.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/07/RS50400_GettyImages-1234171316-qut.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A home burns as flames from the Dixie fire tear through the Indian Falls neighborhood of unincorporated Plumas County, California on July 24, 2021. Rising temperatures are drying out forests, priming them for big fires. \u003ccite>(JOSH EDELSON/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The 2021 fire season was truly ferocious, and over the past year, the sheer scale of the fires shifted the public consciousness. Californians realized how we fight wildfires isn’t working. As a result, state leaders created policy goals and \u003ca href=\"https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/09/16/prescribed-burns-could-help-reduce-californias-wildfires-a-new-bill-could-help-make-planned-fires-more-frequent/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">laws\u003c/a> to make it easier for fire experts to light controlled \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11887158/in-california-restoring-our-relationship-with-fire-is-possible\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">good fires\u003c/a> that clear excess vegetation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wildfire experts are still concerned that large, impossible-to-control wildfires will ignite again in the early summer months through the fall. \u003ca href=\"https://www.eri.ucsb.edu/people/leila-m-v-carvalho\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Leila Carvalho\u003c/a>, a UC Santa Barbara professor of meteorology and climatology, says long-term climate trends—like heat waves drying out vegetation early in the year or drier springs—will continue throughout 2022.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Major fires will happen,” she said. “The cycles tend to repeat when we have the right conditions of winds and ignitions.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Carvalho is hopeful for two significant reasons. First, the state has set aside more than a \u003ca href=\"https://apnews.com/article/business-health-fires-climate-california-eec48e6279099449851b3c7f150cda33\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">billion dollars\u003c/a> to strategically remove brush and trees to rescue catastrophic wildfires. Second, so many scientists are studying the effects climate change and historic fire suppression has on drying wildland areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People are trying to find solutions to mitigate and adapt because we have to deal with these swinging extremes in climate,” she said. “I’m hopeful that we are perhaps dealing with problems in ways we haven’t been doing before.”\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question4\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Environmental Justice\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Communities already dealing with the effects of climate change stand to benefit from $100 million in state funds to establish community resilience hubs where people can go when climate emergencies strike. The hubs will be permanent neighborhood-based facilities — youth centers, churches, senior centers — that can provide emergency response, including backup power, food, economic assistance, internet services and a respite from smoke-filled air.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"“The fact that we’re still hitting up against political barriers to make the progress that we need to make just indicates how hard this is and how much growth we still need to have when it comes to addressing these challenges head-on.”","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Alvaro Sanchez, Greenlining Institute","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Still, \u003ca href=\"https://greenlining.org/about/our-team/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alvaro Sanchez\u003c/a>, policy director for the Greenlining Institute, says the funds only “scratch the surface” of what’s needed for low-income communities as swings in weather increase.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He says the legislature failed to advance a bill that would have sped up meeting California’s climate goals.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The fact that we’re still hitting up against political barriers to make the progress that we need to make just indicates how hard this is and how much growth we still need to have when it comes to addressing these challenges head-on,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sanchez is excited that the state and two environmental justice-oriented groups are collaborating to develop a mapping platform that identifies the places most likely to flood, burn, dry out, etc. The maps will consider socioeconomic status, a factor that puts some populations at a greater risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is going to take some time to develop, but it’s going to be what keeps California in the forefront on the way that we’re addressing climate change and bringing intersectional perspectives into the climate conversation,” he said.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question5\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Oil & Gas\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1946654\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1946654\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-1020x701.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"440\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-1020x701.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-160x110.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-800x550.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-768x528.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut-1200x824.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/RS23868_GettyImages-3188665-qut.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Smoke drifts away from a Shell Oil refinery April 1, 2004 in Martinez, California. \u003ccite>(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>There were two milestones in 2021 for phasing out fossil fuels in California: Newsom \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/04/newsom-ban-new-oil-fracking/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">banned new oil fracking by 2024\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.com/2021/12/06/oil-rig-setback-rule-doesnt-go-far-enough/%3famp=1\">drafted\u003c/a> a ban on new oil and gas wells sometime after 2023 within 3,200 feet of homes, schools, or healthcare facilities. Even so, Michael Méndez, an assistant professor of environmental planning and policy at UC Irvine, says California isn’t doing enough. The state is the 7th largest crude oil producer in the county.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we really want to tackle climate change and our dependence on fossil fuel as an economy, directly addressing our oil production and oil imports is a key factor for our state,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Méndez is also looking forward to California beginning a conversation about updating its climate roadmap this year. He says a crucial part of the plan will be ensuring that California’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1972789/california-says-it-will-review-cap-and-trade-amid-growing-criticism\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">cap-and-trade\u003c/a> system, which puts a price on carbon, actually lowers carbon emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m not sure if we should totally scrap the cap-and-trade program, but it needs a thorough public reevaluation in the legislature,” he said. “Are these market based systems happening at the expense of immediate public health outcomes and improvements for low-income communities of color?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Méndez says there’s a growing concern that the cap-and-trade is an insufficient policy because it allows “polluting industries to pay to pollute in communities without changing their practices.” And a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1975164/california-not-doing-as-well-as-it-thinks-in-reducing-carbon-investigation-finds\">report\u003c/a> last summer found that millions of carbon credits from the program do not represent real reductions in planet-warming gas emissions.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question6\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Energy\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Decisions that both eased and further complicated renewable energy marked 2021—think of plans for offshore wind and reducing the rate at which homeowners can sell extra electricity from rooftop solar panels—and lots of work around holding PG&E accountable for starting wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘More and more people are coming to understand the urgency of climate action, but we’re coming to terms with deep divides and social inequalities. The choices we make are going to determine how much it costs and who pays the prices.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Meredith Fowlie Energy Institute, UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Energy experts say there will be a ramping up of greening the grid this year. California is also hosting an in-person offshore wind industry \u003ca href=\"https://www.offshorewindca.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">conference\u003c/a> in March in San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.meredithfowlie.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Meredith Fowlie\u003c/a>, faculty director of the Energy Institute at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, says as the electricity sector further decarbonizes and renewable energy options expand in 2022, California needs to make sure the clean energy transition is equitable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“More and more people are coming to understand the urgency of climate action, but we’re coming to terms with deep divides and social inequalities,” she said. “The choices we make are going to determine how much it costs and who pays the prices.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As companies like PG&E put transmission lines underground to prevent catastrophic wildfires, the cost will likely extend to ratepayers, says \u003ca href=\"https://erg.berkeley.edu/people/callaway-duncan/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Duncan Callaway\u003c/a>, an associate professor of Energy and Resources at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It will be harder for customers to justify purchasing that new electrified appliance or car because the cost to charge or run their electric heat pump will be too high,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The last piece of exciting energy news to start off 2022 is that California is beginning to work on a Fifth Climate Assessment. \u003ca href=\"https://erg.berkeley.edu/people/andrew-d-jones/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Andy Jones\u003c/a>, an earth scientist in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley, is helping build a tool to take the terabytes of data electricity companies and agencies have “about the future climate and extract useful knowledge from all of that.”\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question7\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Electric Cars\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1931178\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1931178\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-1020x574.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-960x540.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-240x135.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-375x211.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/09/ElectricCars_AW_06-520x293.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Electric cars are growing in the Bay Area but are only 6 percent of new vehicle sales statewide. \u003ccite>(Anne Wernikoff)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Petty much no one’s trying to kill the electric car these days— at least, not in California — and in 2022, Ford is even releasing an \u003ca href=\"https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/19/all-electric-ford-f-150-lightning.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">electric version\u003c/a> of the popular Ford F-150.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In the US, where we love trucks, it’s really important that people who drive those vehicles really want to drive the electric versions of them,” said \u003ca href=\"https://faculty.engineering.ucdavis.edu/kendall/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alissa Kendall\u003c/a>. She studies electric cars as chair of the Energy Graduate Group at UC Davis. “I think that’s what we’re going to see in 2022, a positive and exciting shift.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Kendall says what’s missing from the zero-emission vehicle conversation are ways to make electric vehicles accessible, affordable, and convenient for low-income people. A \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/11/california-must-ensure-ev-charging-access-for-all/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">coalition\u003c/a> of elected officials, companies, and advocacy groups want all new multi-unit family housing to come with electric vehicle charging.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kendall thinks 2022 could be a year where there’s increased investment in charging stations in areas accessible to all Californians, not just for homeowners or businesses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We still have a big access issue,” she said of both electrified public transportation and electric cars. “How do we deliver transit that actually decreases the burdens of pollution on communities already experiencing disproportionate burdens?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kendall says California has a few big things to figure out in 2022, including what to do with car batteries at the end of their lives and how to source and produce materials to make batteries instate.\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca id=\"question8\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Sea Level Rise\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1955614\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1955614\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-1020x679.jpg\" alt=\"King Tide along San Francisco's Embarcadero, in February 2011.\" width=\"640\" height=\"426\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides-1200x799.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/01/kingtides.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">King Tide along San Francisco’s Embarcadero, in February 2011. \u003ccite>(Dave R/Flickr)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Rising tides resulting from warming temperatures globally is a major climate impact the state can prepare for—even with the \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/14/world/noaa-climate-change-arctic-report/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">news\u003c/a> late last year that the Arctic is rapidly losing ice—because the worst effects won’t come for decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ced.berkeley.edu/ced/faculty-staff/kristina-hill\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kristina Hill\u003c/a>, director of the Institute for Urban and Regional Development at UC Berkeley, says it’s essential to plan now for sea-level rise; otherwise, the Bay Area will undergo similar devastation mountain communities are enduring from wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We should be planning now while things are stable, instead of running around treating it as a disaster in 20 years, which it will be if we don’t plan ahead, because the rate of change is accelerating,” she said. “This is the last period when it’s going to feel slow. After this, it’s going to be fast for hundreds of years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the Bay Area is beginning to prepare for rising tides. Counties, agencies, nonprofits and cities are collaborating \u003ca href=\"https://www.bayadapt.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">to prepare for sea level rise as one region\u003c/a>. San Mateo County is planning an entire \u003ca href=\"https://oneshoreline.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">shoreline protection project\u003c/a>, and university scientists are researching how to prepare the most vulnerable residents for \u003ca href=\"https://sites.google.com/berkeley.edu/toxictides\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">rising water levels\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://sites.google.com/berkeley.edu/toxictides\"> \u003c/a>(groundwater and the sea).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The one area Hill says needs to be taken seriously this year is that sea level rise can cause groundwater flooding and make existing contamination worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re already seeing evidence of that water coming up out of manholes and Alameda and San Leandro,” she said. “That water is rising with the high tides, under contaminated sites. It’s entering sewer pipes, it’s going to cause impacts to infrastructure, and it’s going to expose people to more health risks, from contaminants that are moving in the groundwater.”\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"#backtotop\">Back to top\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1978046/2022-promises-continued-climate-extremes-but-also-a-glimmer-of-hope-for-californians","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_31","science_33","science_35","science_4550","science_40","science_4450","science_98","science_3730"],"tags":["science_2924","science_194","science_572","science_845","science_134","science_1754","science_4414","science_206","science_113"],"featImg":"science_1976799","label":"source_science_1978046"},"science_1967914":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1967914","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1967914","score":null,"sort":[1596220399000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"electric-cars-will-cost-same-as-gas-models-as-soon-as-2023-researchers-say","title":"Electric Cars Will Cost Same as Gas Models as Soon as 2023, Researchers Say","publishDate":1596220399,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Electric Cars Will Cost Same as Gas Models as Soon as 2023, Researchers Say | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/Neq_CwpkPvsGmMG7hVOy7A?domain=insideclimatenews.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">InsideClimate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. Sign up for the ICN newsletter \u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/pD-rCxklQwf1V61yTviMEq?domain=insideclimatenews.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">At some point, probably sooner than you expect, the price of an all-electric vehicle will fall far enough to equal the cost of an equivalent gasoline vehicle.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">We know that day is coming and a whole lot of people — many of whom work in the auto industry — would like to know when.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">So here’s an answer: Maybe by 2023, probably by 2024 and almost definitely by 2025.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">That’s according to Venkat Viswanathan and his team of researchers at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. They developed a model to calculate the costs of EV batteries that breaks down the costs of each component and then predicts changes over time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">“There will definitely be cars, passenger vehicles, in multiple segments where the EV option is the cheaper option,” Viswanathan said about the 2025 time frame.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">When we talk about the cost of EVs, we’re mainly talking about the cost of batteries, which are the most expensive components in the vehicle, and also the ones for which the costs are changing most quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Analysts and researchers have said for years that a battery price of $100 per kilowatt-hour is the point at which EVs become cost-competitive with gasoline vehicles. Last year, the global average price was down to \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-market-ramps-up-with-market-average-at-156-kwh-in-2019/\">$156\u003c/a>\u003c/b> per kilowatt-hour, according to BloombergNEF.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967915\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/LithiumIonBatteryPricesICE529px.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"529\" height=\"491\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/LithiumIonBatteryPricesICE529px.png 529w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/LithiumIonBatteryPricesICE529px-160x149.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 529px) 100vw, 529px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">But the model developed by Viswanathan and his colleagues shows that battery packs are on track to cost less than $80 per kilowatt-hour by 2025, a projection in line with leading forecasts, like that from BloombergNEF (You can read more about their model in a 2017 \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1149/2.0671711jes\">journal article\u003c/a>\u003c/b> and in a \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-electric-vehicles-with-lower-sticker-prices-than-gas-cars-battery-costs-explained-137196\">recent post\u003c/a>\u003c/b> on The Conversation).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Now that the below-$100 benchmark is within sight, it’s important to specify what it means. It doesn’t mean that I can go out and buy an EV of any size and it will cost the same or less than it would for a gasoline model with similar features. But it probably does mean that I will be able to get a compact sedan EV for about the same cost and with similar features as one that runs on gasoline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Viswanathan said cost parity will arrive first for small sedans that now sell for $30,000 or less. It will take longer for automakers to develop electric trucks and SUVs that cost about the same as similar gasoline models.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">One of the big reasons we will need to wait longer for larger vehicles is that trucks and SUVs need a lot of power for towing capacity, which means larger battery packs and higher costs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">The fact that EVs will be cost-competitive should help to transform a market in which less than 2% of new vehicles sold are all-electric.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">This change is coming, and it’s coming fast, and that’s good news for the climate because transportation is responsible for \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions#:~:text=The%20primary%20sources%20of%20greenhouse,share%20of%20greenhouse%20gas%20emissions.\">more than a quarter\u003c/a>\u003c/b> of U.S. emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Electric Trucks Are Coming, with Chevy Entering the Fray\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Most of the EVs on the market today are sedans, even though U.S. \u003ca href=\"https://www.nada.org/nadamarketbeat/\">consumers prefer\u003c/a>, by a wide margin, crossovers, trucks and SUVs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Automakers know that for EVs to truly reach the mainstream, there will need to be attractive options in all of those classes, which is why several of the biggest players are racing to develop all-electric pickups.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">General Motors \u003ca href=\"https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a33367111/gm-promises-a-400-mile-range-electric-pickup/\">said last week\u003c/a> that it will begin selling an all-electric Chevrolet pickup by 2025. This will follow the company’s release of the GMC Hummer EV, a pickup that could go on sale as soon as next year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Those models will be part of a competitive landscape that also includes the Ford F-150 EV, the Tesla Cybertruck and the Rivian R1T, all of which are heading for rollouts over the next two years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Stephanie Brinley, an auto analyst for IHS Markit, told me that automakers are developing electric trucks not because they expect to sell a lot of them in the near future, but because they need to have strong electric options across their lineups in the long run.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">“You can’t wait until 2040 and go, ‘Oh, now we’ll just drop the battery in here,'” she said. “The vehicle needs are too complicated, so you have to start developing it much earlier.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Her company is projecting that all-electric trucks will be 0.87% of U.S. sales of cars and light trucks in 2025, and that EVs in general will be about 8% of sales.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">One of the big questions about electric trucks is which regions will emerge as centers of customer demand. Brinley said she is looking to Texas as a possibility because the state is the leading market for pickup trucks. California is also likely to have a big role to play, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">But even in those places that have demand for electric trucks, that demand is likely to be low.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re really in baby stages,” Brinley said of building the foundation of the market to come. “It’s not about how many you sell in 2024. It’s about how many you sell in 2035.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003ci>\u003cem>Reporter Nicole Pollack contributed to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The change is coming and it's coming fast, Dan Gearino of InsideClimate News writes. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704847132,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":5,"wordCount":923},"headData":{"title":"Electric Cars Will Cost Same as Gas Models as Soon as 2023, Researchers Say | KQED","description":"The change is coming and it's coming fast, Dan Gearino of InsideClimate News writes. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Electric Cars Will Cost Same as Gas Models as Soon as 2023, Researchers Say","datePublished":"2020-07-31T18:33:19.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:38:52.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"InsideClimate News","sticky":false,"nprByline":"Dan Gearino \u003cBr />InsideClimate News\u003cbr>","path":"/science/1967914/electric-cars-will-cost-same-as-gas-models-as-soon-as-2023-researchers-say","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/Neq_CwpkPvsGmMG7hVOy7A?domain=insideclimatenews.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">InsideClimate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. Sign up for the ICN newsletter \u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/pD-rCxklQwf1V61yTviMEq?domain=insideclimatenews.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">At some point, probably sooner than you expect, the price of an all-electric vehicle will fall far enough to equal the cost of an equivalent gasoline vehicle.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">We know that day is coming and a whole lot of people — many of whom work in the auto industry — would like to know when.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">So here’s an answer: Maybe by 2023, probably by 2024 and almost definitely by 2025.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">That’s according to Venkat Viswanathan and his team of researchers at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. They developed a model to calculate the costs of EV batteries that breaks down the costs of each component and then predicts changes over time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">“There will definitely be cars, passenger vehicles, in multiple segments where the EV option is the cheaper option,” Viswanathan said about the 2025 time frame.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">When we talk about the cost of EVs, we’re mainly talking about the cost of batteries, which are the most expensive components in the vehicle, and also the ones for which the costs are changing most quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Analysts and researchers have said for years that a battery price of $100 per kilowatt-hour is the point at which EVs become cost-competitive with gasoline vehicles. Last year, the global average price was down to \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-market-ramps-up-with-market-average-at-156-kwh-in-2019/\">$156\u003c/a>\u003c/b> per kilowatt-hour, according to BloombergNEF.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1967915\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/LithiumIonBatteryPricesICE529px.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"529\" height=\"491\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/LithiumIonBatteryPricesICE529px.png 529w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/07/LithiumIonBatteryPricesICE529px-160x149.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 529px) 100vw, 529px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">But the model developed by Viswanathan and his colleagues shows that battery packs are on track to cost less than $80 per kilowatt-hour by 2025, a projection in line with leading forecasts, like that from BloombergNEF (You can read more about their model in a 2017 \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1149/2.0671711jes\">journal article\u003c/a>\u003c/b> and in a \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-electric-vehicles-with-lower-sticker-prices-than-gas-cars-battery-costs-explained-137196\">recent post\u003c/a>\u003c/b> on The Conversation).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Now that the below-$100 benchmark is within sight, it’s important to specify what it means. It doesn’t mean that I can go out and buy an EV of any size and it will cost the same or less than it would for a gasoline model with similar features. But it probably does mean that I will be able to get a compact sedan EV for about the same cost and with similar features as one that runs on gasoline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Viswanathan said cost parity will arrive first for small sedans that now sell for $30,000 or less. It will take longer for automakers to develop electric trucks and SUVs that cost about the same as similar gasoline models.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">One of the big reasons we will need to wait longer for larger vehicles is that trucks and SUVs need a lot of power for towing capacity, which means larger battery packs and higher costs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">The fact that EVs will be cost-competitive should help to transform a market in which less than 2% of new vehicles sold are all-electric.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">This change is coming, and it’s coming fast, and that’s good news for the climate because transportation is responsible for \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions#:~:text=The%20primary%20sources%20of%20greenhouse,share%20of%20greenhouse%20gas%20emissions.\">more than a quarter\u003c/a>\u003c/b> of U.S. emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Electric Trucks Are Coming, with Chevy Entering the Fray\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Most of the EVs on the market today are sedans, even though U.S. \u003ca href=\"https://www.nada.org/nadamarketbeat/\">consumers prefer\u003c/a>, by a wide margin, crossovers, trucks and SUVs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Automakers know that for EVs to truly reach the mainstream, there will need to be attractive options in all of those classes, which is why several of the biggest players are racing to develop all-electric pickups.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">General Motors \u003ca href=\"https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a33367111/gm-promises-a-400-mile-range-electric-pickup/\">said last week\u003c/a> that it will begin selling an all-electric Chevrolet pickup by 2025. This will follow the company’s release of the GMC Hummer EV, a pickup that could go on sale as soon as next year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Those models will be part of a competitive landscape that also includes the Ford F-150 EV, the Tesla Cybertruck and the Rivian R1T, all of which are heading for rollouts over the next two years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Stephanie Brinley, an auto analyst for IHS Markit, told me that automakers are developing electric trucks not because they expect to sell a lot of them in the near future, but because they need to have strong electric options across their lineups in the long run.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">“You can’t wait until 2040 and go, ‘Oh, now we’ll just drop the battery in here,'” she said. “The vehicle needs are too complicated, so you have to start developing it much earlier.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">Her company is projecting that all-electric trucks will be 0.87% of U.S. sales of cars and light trucks in 2025, and that EVs in general will be about 8% of sales.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">One of the big questions about electric trucks is which regions will emerge as centers of customer demand. Brinley said she is looking to Texas as a possibility because the state is the leading market for pickup trucks. California is also likely to have a big role to play, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">But even in those places that have demand for electric trucks, that demand is likely to be low.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re really in baby stages,” Brinley said of building the foundation of the market to come. “It’s not about how many you sell in 2024. It’s about how many you sell in 2035.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003ci>\u003cem>Reporter Nicole Pollack contributed to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1967914/electric-cars-will-cost-same-as-gas-models-as-soon-as-2023-researchers-say","authors":["byline_science_1967914"],"categories":["science_33","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_194","science_845","science_4122"],"featImg":"science_1967919","label":"source_science_1967914"},"science_1932308":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1932308","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1932308","score":null,"sort":[1538696530000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"california-campaign-seeks-to-get-people-excited-about-electric-cars","title":"Even in California, Electric Vehicle Sales Are Meager. So Here Comes a New Campaign ...","publishDate":1538696530,"format":"image","headTitle":"Even in California, Electric Vehicle Sales Are Meager. So Here Comes a New Campaign … | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Electric cars have been on the market for some time now but surveys \u003ca href=\"https://its.ucdavis.edu/blog-post/automakers-policymakers-on-path-to-electric-vehicles-consumers-are-not/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">show \u003c/a>that even in California adoption has been slow. [contextly_sidebar id=”0J8xbcxPSEu7AMKljxWfepnYbThFPYZw”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A new initiative called \u003ca href=\"https://www.veloz.org/vision-and-mission/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Veloz\u003c/a>\u003cstrong>,\u003c/strong> however, hopes to change that with a multimillion dollar public awareness campaign announced Wednesday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Auto giants are teaming up with California officials and local power utilities to launch the nonprofit, whose mission is to accelerate the mass adoption of electric vehicles in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Currently California has about 350,000 electric vehicles on its roads, \u003ca href=\"http://evadoption.com/california-evs-by-the-numbers-20-statistics-that-might-surprise-you/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according to the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers\u003c/a>. While the rate of electric vehicle adoption significantly outpaces other states, California still has far to go to reach Gov. Brown’s\u003ca href=\"https://www.gov.ca.gov/2018/01/26/governor-brown-takes-action-to-increase-zero-emission-vehicles-fund-new-climate-investments/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> mandated goal of 5 million\u003c/a> zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2030.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Veloz membership includes \u003ca href=\"https://www.veloz.org/unlikely-alliance-joins-forces-to-keep-california-in-the-lead-of-the-electric-car-race/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">35-plus organizations, all with a stake in \u003c/a>the transportation sector, including General Motors, Southern California Edison and the California Air Resources Board.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re seeing the effects of climate change in California here today,” Ron Nichols, president of Southern California Edison, said during Wednesday’s press call.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen droughts and wildfires intensifying, and that’s one of the many reasons that electrifying transport, we believe, is imperative to addressing the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Veloz’ mission is to “create a movement,” says Executive Director Josh Boone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The biggest impediment to electrifying transportation has been the lag between public perception and the pace of developments, according to Mary Nichols, head of the California Air Resources Board.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Clearly the lack of awareness is a critical hurdle that we have had to overcome early on, despite . . . costs coming down, number of models increasing, number of charging stations out there,” she said on Wednesday. “We have to show the public that these things are available.”[contextly_sidebar id=”IlVv5PQiM87vHgKBGKYIJtVuG6Hhp3iX”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nichols described the campaign as the “largest multistake holder, multimillion-dollar campaign” for electric vehicles in North America.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The group has a nearly $4 million budget, with half that amount coming from Electrify America, \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/vw-electrify-america-first-ad-campaign-jetstones/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a public awareness\u003c/a> initiative launched by Volkswagen as part of a legal settlement related to cheating on emissions tests for its diesel vehicles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The group’s first set of ads, dubbed “opposites attract,” will feature a cheeky take from “unusual spokespeople” promoting electric cars, according to Boone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new initiative follows a similar campaign launched in May in multiple states on the east coast dubbed \u003ca href=\"https://driveelectricus.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">“Drive Change. Drive Electric.” \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Veloz plans on raising additional funds for future campaigns.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"A new media blitz backed by government agencies, utilities and automakers is targeting California consumers in the hopes of persuading more drivers to go electric. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927426,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":17,"wordCount":452},"headData":{"title":"Even in California, Electric Vehicle Sales Are Meager. So Here Comes a New Campaign ... | KQED","description":"A new media blitz backed by government agencies, utilities and automakers is targeting California consumers in the hopes of persuading more drivers to go electric. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Even in California, Electric Vehicle Sales Are Meager. So Here Comes a New Campaign ...","datePublished":"2018-10-04T23:42:10.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T22:57:06.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Environment","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1932308/california-campaign-seeks-to-get-people-excited-about-electric-cars","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Electric cars have been on the market for some time now but surveys \u003ca href=\"https://its.ucdavis.edu/blog-post/automakers-policymakers-on-path-to-electric-vehicles-consumers-are-not/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">show \u003c/a>that even in California adoption has been slow. \u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A new initiative called \u003ca href=\"https://www.veloz.org/vision-and-mission/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Veloz\u003c/a>\u003cstrong>,\u003c/strong> however, hopes to change that with a multimillion dollar public awareness campaign announced Wednesday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Auto giants are teaming up with California officials and local power utilities to launch the nonprofit, whose mission is to accelerate the mass adoption of electric vehicles in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Currently California has about 350,000 electric vehicles on its roads, \u003ca href=\"http://evadoption.com/california-evs-by-the-numbers-20-statistics-that-might-surprise-you/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according to the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers\u003c/a>. While the rate of electric vehicle adoption significantly outpaces other states, California still has far to go to reach Gov. Brown’s\u003ca href=\"https://www.gov.ca.gov/2018/01/26/governor-brown-takes-action-to-increase-zero-emission-vehicles-fund-new-climate-investments/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> mandated goal of 5 million\u003c/a> zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2030.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Veloz membership includes \u003ca href=\"https://www.veloz.org/unlikely-alliance-joins-forces-to-keep-california-in-the-lead-of-the-electric-car-race/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">35-plus organizations, all with a stake in \u003c/a>the transportation sector, including General Motors, Southern California Edison and the California Air Resources Board.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re seeing the effects of climate change in California here today,” Ron Nichols, president of Southern California Edison, said during Wednesday’s press call.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen droughts and wildfires intensifying, and that’s one of the many reasons that electrifying transport, we believe, is imperative to addressing the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Veloz’ mission is to “create a movement,” says Executive Director Josh Boone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The biggest impediment to electrifying transportation has been the lag between public perception and the pace of developments, according to Mary Nichols, head of the California Air Resources Board.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Clearly the lack of awareness is a critical hurdle that we have had to overcome early on, despite . . . costs coming down, number of models increasing, number of charging stations out there,” she said on Wednesday. “We have to show the public that these things are available.”\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nichols described the campaign as the “largest multistake holder, multimillion-dollar campaign” for electric vehicles in North America.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The group has a nearly $4 million budget, with half that amount coming from Electrify America, \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/vw-electrify-america-first-ad-campaign-jetstones/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a public awareness\u003c/a> initiative launched by Volkswagen as part of a legal settlement related to cheating on emissions tests for its diesel vehicles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The group’s first set of ads, dubbed “opposites attract,” will feature a cheeky take from “unusual spokespeople” promoting electric cars, according to Boone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new initiative follows a similar campaign launched in May in multiple states on the east coast dubbed \u003ca href=\"https://driveelectricus.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">“Drive Change. Drive Electric.” \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Veloz plans on raising additional funds for future campaigns.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1932308/california-campaign-seeks-to-get-people-excited-about-electric-cars","authors":["11428"],"categories":["science_31","science_33","science_35","science_37","science_40"],"tags":["science_2889","science_182","science_845","science_192","science_3370"],"featImg":"science_1351641","label":"source_science_1932308"},"science_1919070":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1919070","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1919070","score":null,"sort":[1516997779000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"california-sets-bold-new-target-for-zero-emission-vehicles","title":"California Sets Bold New Target for 'Zero-Emission' Vehicles","publishDate":1516997779,"format":"standard","headTitle":"California Sets Bold New Target for ‘Zero-Emission’ Vehicles | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>California is significantly upping the ante in its quest to get more electric cars on the road.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In his final State-of-the-State address this week, Governor Jerry Brown laid out the state’s ambitions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Then, he dropped something startling.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“To meet these ambitious goals,” Brown tossed out almost casually, “we’ll need five million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2030, and we’re gonna get there, believe me.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today Brown’s administration made it official with \u003ca href=\"https://www.gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=20151\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">an executive order\u003c/a> setting that as the state’s new target for ZEVs, which includes fuel-cell vehicles and electric vehicles. (Plug-in hybrid cars count, though they’re technically not zero-emissions when their gas engines are engaged.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That represents a significant jump from the \u003ca href=\"https://www.utilitydive.com/news/can-california-hit-15m-zero-emission-vehicles-by-2025/441020/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">state’s previous goal\u003c/a> of 1.5 million by 2025, and it’s nearly 15 times the number currently roaming the state — a fact that the governor acknowledged.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We only have 350,000 today, so we all got a lot of work,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The number is slightly less than that, according to the climate-and-economics think tank, \u003ca href=\"http://next10.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Next 10\u003c/a>. Its founder, Noel Perry, says the actual the number of ZEVs in circulation in California is just above 337,000.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The sales are growing rapidly in California and we’re on a very good roll,” says Perry. “If we continue going the way we’re going, who knows?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Perry has more than an inkling. Next 10 has been preparing a report on prospects for meeting the pre-existing 2025 goal. It was scheduled for release next week, though the governor might’ve just sent Perry’s staff back to the drawing board.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A previous analysis by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory concluded that to meet the state’s ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goal for 2050, the majority of vehicles on the road will need to be electric. That will require not only that electric car sales continue to grow, but that the infrastructure to support them grows along with that. Brown’s order includes a proposal to spur both car sales and infrastructure with a $2.5 billion investment that includes eight more years of incentives for car buyers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have lagged behind in terms of creating the number of charging stations that we need,” says Perry, whose research counts 16,500 commercial and public charging stations in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“And although this is the most in the nation by far,” notes Perry, if you look at the ratio of charging outlets per California ZEV, we’re at the very, very low end.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>None of that has deterred Governor Brown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“California was built on dreams and perseverance,” he said, “and the bolder path is still our way forward.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Five million on the road by 2030 is a reach by any standard, but Governor Brown vows, \"We'll get there.\"","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704928221,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":16,"wordCount":497},"headData":{"title":"California Sets Bold New Target for 'Zero-Emission' Vehicles | KQED","description":"Five million on the road by 2030 is a reach by any standard, but Governor Brown vows, "We'll get there."","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"California Sets Bold New Target for 'Zero-Emission' Vehicles","datePublished":"2018-01-26T20:16:19.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:10:21.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/1919070/california-sets-bold-new-target-for-zero-emission-vehicles","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>California is significantly upping the ante in its quest to get more electric cars on the road.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In his final State-of-the-State address this week, Governor Jerry Brown laid out the state’s ambitions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Then, he dropped something startling.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“To meet these ambitious goals,” Brown tossed out almost casually, “we’ll need five million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2030, and we’re gonna get there, believe me.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today Brown’s administration made it official with \u003ca href=\"https://www.gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=20151\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">an executive order\u003c/a> setting that as the state’s new target for ZEVs, which includes fuel-cell vehicles and electric vehicles. (Plug-in hybrid cars count, though they’re technically not zero-emissions when their gas engines are engaged.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That represents a significant jump from the \u003ca href=\"https://www.utilitydive.com/news/can-california-hit-15m-zero-emission-vehicles-by-2025/441020/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">state’s previous goal\u003c/a> of 1.5 million by 2025, and it’s nearly 15 times the number currently roaming the state — a fact that the governor acknowledged.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We only have 350,000 today, so we all got a lot of work,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The number is slightly less than that, according to the climate-and-economics think tank, \u003ca href=\"http://next10.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Next 10\u003c/a>. Its founder, Noel Perry, says the actual the number of ZEVs in circulation in California is just above 337,000.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The sales are growing rapidly in California and we’re on a very good roll,” says Perry. “If we continue going the way we’re going, who knows?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Perry has more than an inkling. Next 10 has been preparing a report on prospects for meeting the pre-existing 2025 goal. It was scheduled for release next week, though the governor might’ve just sent Perry’s staff back to the drawing board.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A previous analysis by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory concluded that to meet the state’s ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goal for 2050, the majority of vehicles on the road will need to be electric. That will require not only that electric car sales continue to grow, but that the infrastructure to support them grows along with that. Brown’s order includes a proposal to spur both car sales and infrastructure with a $2.5 billion investment that includes eight more years of incentives for car buyers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have lagged behind in terms of creating the number of charging stations that we need,” says Perry, whose research counts 16,500 commercial and public charging stations in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“And although this is the most in the nation by far,” notes Perry, if you look at the ratio of charging outlets per California ZEV, we’re at the very, very low end.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>None of that has deterred Governor Brown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“California was built on dreams and perseverance,” he said, “and the bolder path is still our way forward.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1919070/california-sets-bold-new-target-for-zero-emission-vehicles","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_31","science_33","science_89","science_35","science_40"],"tags":["science_845","science_2164"],"featImg":"science_1919077","label":"science"},"science_1918785":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1918785","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1918785","score":null,"sort":[1515711703000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"californias-climate-fight-will-get-harder-soon-thanks-to-cars","title":"California's Climate Fight Will Get Harder Soon Thanks to Cars","publishDate":1515711703,"format":"image","headTitle":"California’s Climate Fight Will Get Harder Soon Thanks to Cars | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>By most measures, California has earned the right to brag about how much it has cleaned up its environmental act. The air in much of smog-shrouded Southern California has been scrubbed. A passenger car for sale here today is 99 percent cleaner than one on offer in the early 1970s. The fossil fuels required to power the state’s economic engine have decreased by a third since their peak in 2001, while economic activity has expanded in that time by an equal measure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”5oAxK6iSOR71npFeALWQZ2OeGnCZXYA1″]In addition, California’s response to climate change is a one-of-a-kind hybrid, knitting together market-based programs such as the cap-and-trade system for reducing carbon dioxide and other harmful emissions; strict regulations to promote energy efficiency in buildings; and generous financial incentives for “green” projects, drawn from more than $6 billion in carbon-trading proceeds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s working. California is poised to meet its goal to reduce greenhouse gases 33 percent, to 1990 levels, by the year 2020. Its targets for use of more renewable energy by that date are, in some cases, already exceeded.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘There’s no question that transportation is a critical piece, maybe thecritical piece, in solving our energy problems.’\u003ccite>Sean Hecht, UCLA’s Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>So take a bow, California; you’ve done the easy stuff. But hold on tight for what comes next. The state’s overarching plan was intended to ease industry and consumers into a carbon-free future bit by bit; ten years in, the training wheels are off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Emissions-reduction must hit 40 percent by 2030 and twice that by 2050. In 12 years, half the state’s energy must come from renewable sources such as wind and sun. California’s 14 million buildings must operate twice as efficiently, and the number of electric cars on the road will have to multiply more than 10 times. Failure would likely mean more extreme measures in later years and, many experts say, could affect public health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The scope of the state’s approach is all-encompassing. By law or executive order, every state agency must consider climate change when making any planning decision. Developers must take into account how far motorists travel to reach a destination, forests will be managed so that trees store more carbon dioxide and highway builders have to calculate the possibility that rising seas might inundate the roads.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The near term looks good. But for the 2030 goals and beyond, normally upbeat officials are guarded.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Getting a 40 percent reduction [by] 2030 is no small thing. There will be lots of challenges,” said Ken Alex, director of the state Office of Planning and Research, who sees the entire field when it comes to emissions reductions. “Sometimes I’m optimistic, sometimes I’m pessimistic. I’m pessimistic about the political will it takes to get there.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The most difficult work begins with California’s single most polluting sector: transportation, which accounts for nearly half the state’s greenhouse-gas emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mary Nichols, who chairs the California Air Resources Board, acknowledged that squeezing emissions from transportation will be the most difficult lift of all the 2030 standards, saying the gains require no less than a “deep transformation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That will include cutting gasoline use in half, reducing the miles that car-centric Californians drive, dramatically ramping up the adoption of electric vehicles and building a network of readily available charging stations.“There’s no question that transportation is a critical piece, maybe the critical piece, in solving our energy problems,” said Sean Hecht, co-executive director of UCLA’s Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One reason it’s difficult is that transportation emissions are produced largely outside the clutches of state regulation: think airplanes, trains, and ships. Another is sluggish technological change for heavy-duty and medium-duty trucks, buses and shuttles, although adoption of all-electric municipal buses is growing as costs come down.Cities and regions are charting their own paths, going green to save green: The Los Angeles-area Metropolitan Transportation Agency has a goal of operating an emissions-free bus fleet by 2030.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although California has decreed that auto manufacturers sell a percentage of zero-emission vehicles, there is no mandate that drivers purchase the pricey cars. Regulators and legislators have been reluctant to force consumers to buy them, as they have with TVs, heavy appliances and other products.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That would change with legislation proposed by Assemblyman Phil Ting, a Democrat from San Francisco. Ting’s bill would ban the sale of gasoline-powered cars in California by 2040, mirroring bans proposed by some European countries. The idea went nowhere when Ting proposed it last year, and its prospects now are unclear.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While gas-sipping hybrids such as the Prius are nearly ubiquitous and certainly helpful, only true zero-emission vehicles can bring about the scale of change the state’s goals require, experts say.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no way to get there without significant reduction in passenger-vehicle emissions,” said Ting, who drives an electric car. He said that more access to charging stations would be transformational.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1918790\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1918790\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-800x1035.png\" alt=\"Infographic\" width=\"800\" height=\"1035\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-800x1035.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-160x207.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-768x994.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-1020x1320.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-1180x1527.png 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-960x1242.png 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-240x311.png 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-375x485.png 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-520x673.png 520w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png.png 1275w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The California Air Resources Board recently issued this plan for how the state should reduce greenhouse gases beyond 2020. \u003ccite>(Graphic by California Air Resources Board.)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“People talk about the lack of infrastructure, yet there’s electricity everywhere they park their car, unless they are in the forest,” he said. “People park their car much nearer to electricity than they do to gasoline. In transportation they talk about ‘the last mile.’ Here we have the ‘last foot’ issue. We just need the extension cord for the last foot.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Much of that work falls to the California Energy Commission, which has tied together charging stations that trace a north-south, mainly coastal path. The easier task of attracting electric car buyers in Southern California and the Bay Area has been accomplished. The challenge now is engaging inland drivers, in places such as Bakersfield, Fresno and Redding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>John Kato, deputy director of the commission’s Fuels and Transportation Division, agreed that the new benchmarks are “challenging, but we believe the private sector will take up the baton,” with automakers producing a wider variety of vehicles, across a broad price range, appealing to more buyers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An unexpected private-sector benefit comes from Volkswagen, which settled an emissions-cheating case by agreeing to spend more than $800 million building charging stations (from which the company will also profit) throughout the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>National trends are cause for optimism, said Paul Cort, an attorney with the environmental group Earthjustice. “There is an acceleration in acceptance and uptake among car buyers,” he said. “It took us 10 years to get to the first million electric vehicles; the second million was achieved in two years; the third million will be on the road in one year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One success story has been the state utilities’ swift integration of renewable energy into the state electric grid, partly because of a dramatic decline in the cost of solar energy. Emissions from power generated in the state fell by more than 19 percent last year, partly due to the ramping up of hydroelectric power with last year’s heavy rains. The Public Utilities Commission that regulates energy companies reports that they have met or will soon meet the 2020 targets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State Sen. Kevin de León, a Democrat from Los Angeles who is currently running to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, recently set an even higher bar, proposing 100 percent renewable energy throughout the state by 2045.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It will be more difficult to find further savings from existing energy-efficiency programs, long a bulwark of California’s carbon-reduction efforts. The state is phasing out incandescent light bulbs and the building codes for new construction continue to mandate efficiency. But still to be tackled is the thorny problem of retrofitting millions of old and outdated homes and businesses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At least one analysis calculates that natural gas used in hot water heaters and to warm residential and commercial buildings is causing nearly the same emissions as the state’s power plants. Converting gas-fired buildings to fully electric is daunting, and hugely expensive.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”kvHQJnLDSQDCWe2YwsvNKBOtFbjnN6yk”]With so many reductions required, the Air Resource Board’s post-2020 strategy is one element—a critical one—of the state’s multiagency approach to climate change. That strategy elevates the cap-and-trade system, in which companies can pay to pollute by buying credits, to a much more significant role. Cap and trade limits emissions on 80 percent of California’s polluters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The California Air Resources Board recently issued this plan for how the state should reduce greenhouse gases beyond 2020. Graphic by California Air Resources Board.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agency has never precisely quantified cap and trade’s contribution to greenhouse-gas reduction. Officials projected it at 17-20 percent in a planning document in 2008—a year before the program launched—but are unable to say if those assumptions have been borne out. The board has not conducted the complicated analysis required to determine the program’s actual role in cutting emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nonetheless, last month it adopted a plan to reach post-2020 objectives that ups the ante: It forecasts that cap and trade, which lawmakers recently extended to 2030, will be responsible for nearly 40 percent of California’s emissions reductions by that time, a figure disputed by some as unrealistic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some critics of the program say another factor could cause the state to miss its 2030 emissions targets: the banking system that allows individual companies to hold tens of millions of carbon credits in reserve.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to separate analyses by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office and independent economists, refineries, cement plants and other major polluters could produce emissions in the next decade that are well above the state’s ever-tightening limits and use their banked credits, purchased cheaply, to offset their excess.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chris Busch, an economist and research director at the think tank Energy Innovation, said his analysis showed that because of the oversupply of allowances the “effectiveness of the program could be compromised.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ross Brown, who analyzes cap and trade for the LAO, said in an interview that there’s a “decent to good chance” that banked credits could vault emissions to more than 30 percent over legal limits in 2030.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The issue has the attention of the state Legislature, which has directed the air board to investigate. So far, the agency has shrugged off the concerns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rajinder Sahota, who oversees the cap-and-trade program for the air board, said that although the analyses may be correct in that emissions may exceed the cap in any given year, the agency is confident that the cumulative emissions between 2021 and 2030 will fall and California will meet its goals.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We expect to see fluctuations over time,” she said. “There are a number of factors that account for emissions in any given year—the economy, business decisions. In a perfect world, you’d like to see a decline over time. But it doesn’t always work that way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sahota said the analyses of banked credits are a “paper exercise.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of the allowances in the program are still in the ARB’s account,” she said. The LAO’s calculations would require a company to spend hundreds of millions of dollars for credits now on a bet that the price will rise as emissions limits get stricter, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The data show that is not happening,” Sahota said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nevertheless, she and air board chairwoman Nichols said the plan is open to revisions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gov. Jerry Brown’s personal investment in California’s climate-change policies has been a force multiplier, spurring the myriad state agencies to adopt, and state industries to adapt to, the prospect of a carbon-less future. But Brown is in his final year in office, and the Legislature’s to-do list is crowded with other enormous issues, such as poverty and housing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Whether lawmakers will continue to invest in programs that, to some, don’t seem to immediately improve the lives of Californians, is an open question.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One critic is state Sen. John Moorlach, a Republican from Costa Mesa who is also an accountant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I come from a world where you measure things so you can manage it,” the senator said. “It’s a matter of priorities. Sacramento is pumping itself on the chest, thinking it is going save the world. I’m not convinced this is the right use of our resources.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such doubts could present hurdles as the global-warming clock winds down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are running out of time. That’s clear,” said Ken Alex. “To me, it’s about political will and scale. We feel confident that it’s doable. But do we have the political will to get there?”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Normally upbeat officials are guarded about the prospects for success.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704928235,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":48,"wordCount":2275},"headData":{"title":"California's Climate Fight Will Get Harder Soon Thanks to Cars | KQED","description":"Normally upbeat officials are guarded about the prospects for success.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"California's Climate Fight Will Get Harder Soon Thanks to Cars","datePublished":"2018-01-11T23:01:43.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:10:35.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"nprByline":"Julie Cart\u003c/br>CalMatters","path":"/science/1918785/californias-climate-fight-will-get-harder-soon-thanks-to-cars","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>By most measures, California has earned the right to brag about how much it has cleaned up its environmental act. The air in much of smog-shrouded Southern California has been scrubbed. A passenger car for sale here today is 99 percent cleaner than one on offer in the early 1970s. The fossil fuels required to power the state’s economic engine have decreased by a third since their peak in 2001, while economic activity has expanded in that time by an equal measure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>In addition, California’s response to climate change is a one-of-a-kind hybrid, knitting together market-based programs such as the cap-and-trade system for reducing carbon dioxide and other harmful emissions; strict regulations to promote energy efficiency in buildings; and generous financial incentives for “green” projects, drawn from more than $6 billion in carbon-trading proceeds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s working. California is poised to meet its goal to reduce greenhouse gases 33 percent, to 1990 levels, by the year 2020. Its targets for use of more renewable energy by that date are, in some cases, already exceeded.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘There’s no question that transportation is a critical piece, maybe thecritical piece, in solving our energy problems.’\u003ccite>Sean Hecht, UCLA’s Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>So take a bow, California; you’ve done the easy stuff. But hold on tight for what comes next. The state’s overarching plan was intended to ease industry and consumers into a carbon-free future bit by bit; ten years in, the training wheels are off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Emissions-reduction must hit 40 percent by 2030 and twice that by 2050. In 12 years, half the state’s energy must come from renewable sources such as wind and sun. California’s 14 million buildings must operate twice as efficiently, and the number of electric cars on the road will have to multiply more than 10 times. Failure would likely mean more extreme measures in later years and, many experts say, could affect public health.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The scope of the state’s approach is all-encompassing. By law or executive order, every state agency must consider climate change when making any planning decision. Developers must take into account how far motorists travel to reach a destination, forests will be managed so that trees store more carbon dioxide and highway builders have to calculate the possibility that rising seas might inundate the roads.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The near term looks good. But for the 2030 goals and beyond, normally upbeat officials are guarded.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Getting a 40 percent reduction [by] 2030 is no small thing. There will be lots of challenges,” said Ken Alex, director of the state Office of Planning and Research, who sees the entire field when it comes to emissions reductions. “Sometimes I’m optimistic, sometimes I’m pessimistic. I’m pessimistic about the political will it takes to get there.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The most difficult work begins with California’s single most polluting sector: transportation, which accounts for nearly half the state’s greenhouse-gas emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mary Nichols, who chairs the California Air Resources Board, acknowledged that squeezing emissions from transportation will be the most difficult lift of all the 2030 standards, saying the gains require no less than a “deep transformation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That will include cutting gasoline use in half, reducing the miles that car-centric Californians drive, dramatically ramping up the adoption of electric vehicles and building a network of readily available charging stations.“There’s no question that transportation is a critical piece, maybe the critical piece, in solving our energy problems,” said Sean Hecht, co-executive director of UCLA’s Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One reason it’s difficult is that transportation emissions are produced largely outside the clutches of state regulation: think airplanes, trains, and ships. Another is sluggish technological change for heavy-duty and medium-duty trucks, buses and shuttles, although adoption of all-electric municipal buses is growing as costs come down.Cities and regions are charting their own paths, going green to save green: The Los Angeles-area Metropolitan Transportation Agency has a goal of operating an emissions-free bus fleet by 2030.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although California has decreed that auto manufacturers sell a percentage of zero-emission vehicles, there is no mandate that drivers purchase the pricey cars. Regulators and legislators have been reluctant to force consumers to buy them, as they have with TVs, heavy appliances and other products.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That would change with legislation proposed by Assemblyman Phil Ting, a Democrat from San Francisco. Ting’s bill would ban the sale of gasoline-powered cars in California by 2040, mirroring bans proposed by some European countries. The idea went nowhere when Ting proposed it last year, and its prospects now are unclear.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While gas-sipping hybrids such as the Prius are nearly ubiquitous and certainly helpful, only true zero-emission vehicles can bring about the scale of change the state’s goals require, experts say.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no way to get there without significant reduction in passenger-vehicle emissions,” said Ting, who drives an electric car. He said that more access to charging stations would be transformational.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1918790\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1918790\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-800x1035.png\" alt=\"Infographic\" width=\"800\" height=\"1035\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-800x1035.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-160x207.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-768x994.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-1020x1320.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-1180x1527.png 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-960x1242.png 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-240x311.png 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-375x485.png 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png-520x673.png 520w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/01/grafic-png.png 1275w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The California Air Resources Board recently issued this plan for how the state should reduce greenhouse gases beyond 2020. \u003ccite>(Graphic by California Air Resources Board.)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“People talk about the lack of infrastructure, yet there’s electricity everywhere they park their car, unless they are in the forest,” he said. “People park their car much nearer to electricity than they do to gasoline. In transportation they talk about ‘the last mile.’ Here we have the ‘last foot’ issue. We just need the extension cord for the last foot.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Much of that work falls to the California Energy Commission, which has tied together charging stations that trace a north-south, mainly coastal path. The easier task of attracting electric car buyers in Southern California and the Bay Area has been accomplished. The challenge now is engaging inland drivers, in places such as Bakersfield, Fresno and Redding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>John Kato, deputy director of the commission’s Fuels and Transportation Division, agreed that the new benchmarks are “challenging, but we believe the private sector will take up the baton,” with automakers producing a wider variety of vehicles, across a broad price range, appealing to more buyers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An unexpected private-sector benefit comes from Volkswagen, which settled an emissions-cheating case by agreeing to spend more than $800 million building charging stations (from which the company will also profit) throughout the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>National trends are cause for optimism, said Paul Cort, an attorney with the environmental group Earthjustice. “There is an acceleration in acceptance and uptake among car buyers,” he said. “It took us 10 years to get to the first million electric vehicles; the second million was achieved in two years; the third million will be on the road in one year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One success story has been the state utilities’ swift integration of renewable energy into the state electric grid, partly because of a dramatic decline in the cost of solar energy. Emissions from power generated in the state fell by more than 19 percent last year, partly due to the ramping up of hydroelectric power with last year’s heavy rains. The Public Utilities Commission that regulates energy companies reports that they have met or will soon meet the 2020 targets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State Sen. Kevin de León, a Democrat from Los Angeles who is currently running to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, recently set an even higher bar, proposing 100 percent renewable energy throughout the state by 2045.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It will be more difficult to find further savings from existing energy-efficiency programs, long a bulwark of California’s carbon-reduction efforts. The state is phasing out incandescent light bulbs and the building codes for new construction continue to mandate efficiency. But still to be tackled is the thorny problem of retrofitting millions of old and outdated homes and businesses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At least one analysis calculates that natural gas used in hot water heaters and to warm residential and commercial buildings is causing nearly the same emissions as the state’s power plants. Converting gas-fired buildings to fully electric is daunting, and hugely expensive.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>With so many reductions required, the Air Resource Board’s post-2020 strategy is one element—a critical one—of the state’s multiagency approach to climate change. That strategy elevates the cap-and-trade system, in which companies can pay to pollute by buying credits, to a much more significant role. Cap and trade limits emissions on 80 percent of California’s polluters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The California Air Resources Board recently issued this plan for how the state should reduce greenhouse gases beyond 2020. Graphic by California Air Resources Board.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agency has never precisely quantified cap and trade’s contribution to greenhouse-gas reduction. Officials projected it at 17-20 percent in a planning document in 2008—a year before the program launched—but are unable to say if those assumptions have been borne out. The board has not conducted the complicated analysis required to determine the program’s actual role in cutting emissions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nonetheless, last month it adopted a plan to reach post-2020 objectives that ups the ante: It forecasts that cap and trade, which lawmakers recently extended to 2030, will be responsible for nearly 40 percent of California’s emissions reductions by that time, a figure disputed by some as unrealistic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some critics of the program say another factor could cause the state to miss its 2030 emissions targets: the banking system that allows individual companies to hold tens of millions of carbon credits in reserve.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to separate analyses by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office and independent economists, refineries, cement plants and other major polluters could produce emissions in the next decade that are well above the state’s ever-tightening limits and use their banked credits, purchased cheaply, to offset their excess.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chris Busch, an economist and research director at the think tank Energy Innovation, said his analysis showed that because of the oversupply of allowances the “effectiveness of the program could be compromised.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ross Brown, who analyzes cap and trade for the LAO, said in an interview that there’s a “decent to good chance” that banked credits could vault emissions to more than 30 percent over legal limits in 2030.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The issue has the attention of the state Legislature, which has directed the air board to investigate. So far, the agency has shrugged off the concerns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rajinder Sahota, who oversees the cap-and-trade program for the air board, said that although the analyses may be correct in that emissions may exceed the cap in any given year, the agency is confident that the cumulative emissions between 2021 and 2030 will fall and California will meet its goals.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We expect to see fluctuations over time,” she said. “There are a number of factors that account for emissions in any given year—the economy, business decisions. In a perfect world, you’d like to see a decline over time. But it doesn’t always work that way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sahota said the analyses of banked credits are a “paper exercise.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of the allowances in the program are still in the ARB’s account,” she said. The LAO’s calculations would require a company to spend hundreds of millions of dollars for credits now on a bet that the price will rise as emissions limits get stricter, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The data show that is not happening,” Sahota said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nevertheless, she and air board chairwoman Nichols said the plan is open to revisions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gov. Jerry Brown’s personal investment in California’s climate-change policies has been a force multiplier, spurring the myriad state agencies to adopt, and state industries to adapt to, the prospect of a carbon-less future. But Brown is in his final year in office, and the Legislature’s to-do list is crowded with other enormous issues, such as poverty and housing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Whether lawmakers will continue to invest in programs that, to some, don’t seem to immediately improve the lives of Californians, is an open question.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One critic is state Sen. John Moorlach, a Republican from Costa Mesa who is also an accountant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I come from a world where you measure things so you can manage it,” the senator said. “It’s a matter of priorities. Sacramento is pumping itself on the chest, thinking it is going save the world. I’m not convinced this is the right use of our resources.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such doubts could present hurdles as the global-warming clock winds down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We are running out of time. That’s clear,” said Ken Alex. “To me, it’s about political will and scale. We feel confident that it’s doable. But do we have the political will to get there?”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1918785/californias-climate-fight-will-get-harder-soon-thanks-to-cars","authors":["byline_science_1918785"],"categories":["science_33"],"tags":["science_704","science_845","science_192","science_3370","science_813"],"featImg":"science_1918786","label":"science"},"science_1842642":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1842642","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1842642","score":null,"sort":[1500303621000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"charge-as-you-go-electric-cars-sounds-great-but-do-we-really-need-them","title":"Charge-as-You-Go Electric Cars: Sounds Great, But Do We Really Need Them?","publishDate":1500303621,"format":"audio","headTitle":"Charge-as-You-Go Electric Cars: Sounds Great, But Do We Really Need Them? | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Drivers of electric cars are quick to tell you how much they love never having to stop at a gas station.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But they still have to stop and plug in. What if you could completely cut loose electric cars to roam this great land, recharging their batteries on the fly?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s been a dream of automotive engineers for years, and scientists at \u003ca href=\"https://www.stanford.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Stanford University\u003c/a> say it just took a leap forward in one of their labs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Electrical engineer \u003ca href=\"http://web.stanford.edu/group/fan/\">Shanhui Fan\u003c/a> and graduate student Sid Assawaworrarit say they’ve \u003ca href=\"http://news.stanford.edu/press/view/14763\">broken through\u003c/a> a major technical barrier on the road to what engineers call “dynamic charging.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dynamic Charging Gets a Boost\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Generally speaking,” says Fan, with his gift for understatement, “I think what we have done here is really to show that you could charge a moving object efficiently.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1843093\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1843093\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584.jpg\" alt=\"Electrical engineers Sid Assawaworrarit (left) and Shanhui Fan examine their demonstration apparatus for dynamic charging in their lab at Stanford.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1500\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Electrical engineers Sid Assawaworrarit (left) and Shanhui Fan (right) examine their demonstration apparatus for dynamic charging in their lab at Stanford. \u003ccite>(Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Wireless charging of stationary objects is already becoming ho-hum, finding uses from cell phones to shuttle buses. Ford recently rolled out a \u003ca href=\"http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/750221/Ford-wireless-charging-electric-cars-CES-2017\">wireless system\u003c/a> that EV owners can install in their own garages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Charging moving objects is a lot trickier. Previous work in the United Kingdom and South Korea has used magnetic induction systems, in which a charged coil creates a magnetic field that jiggles electrons in a nearby companion coil, causing it to create its own electric current. It’s what happens when you set your electric toothbrush onto the charging base. But the technology only works over very short distances and breaks down quickly as the two coils move apart.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nkOgiTxfEs&w=640&h=360]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By adding some off-the-shelf components, Fan and Assawaworrarit have found a way to amplify the voltage and current and keep the two coils humming, even as one of them moves through the field. Their magnetic resonance approach has been called “ingenious,” and while they’ve so far demonstrated it only at very low power—enough to keep two LEDs lit for a few feet—Fan suggests that a scaled-up version could be the answer to charge-as-you-go electric driving. Their work was published in June, in the journal Nature.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Always a Catch\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s the catch: it’s not just the cars that would need the necessary hardware. Arrays of charging pads would have to be embedded in roadways to create charging lanes. As dynamic charging cars passed over the pads, they would pick up the magnetic field and charge on the fly. The pads would have to be close enough together to create a continuous field for cars to pass through.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-1843403\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"340\" height=\"605\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03.jpg 750w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03-160x285.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03-240x427.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03-375x667.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03-520x925.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 340px) 100vw, 340px\">\u003c/a>“The technology is not going to be as efficient as just plugging in your car,” says \u003ca href=\"https://itspubs.ucdavis.edu/index.php/about/single/?person=tal-gil\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Gil Tal\u003c/a>, who directs research at the \u003ca href=\"https://its.ucdavis.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Institute of Transportation Studies\u003c/a> at UC Davis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For one thing, cars are parked a lot more than they’re moving—on average 23 hours a day. And much of that time is overnight, the ideal time to plug in while there’s slack demand for electricity and thus, less pressure on the electric grid. Roadway pads would presumably be charged 24-7 off the grid or by nearby solar panels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You will have losses,” says Tal. Even with the best of technology, you’ll lose quite a bit of energy.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EV age got a significant boost lately by a string of announcements from major players. With great fanfare, Tesla delivered its first car designed for the mass market, the Model 3. Volvo stunned many observers with its plan to build only EVs or hybrids within a couple of model years, and France says it plans to ban internal combustion engines all together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Along with this momentum, automakers are racing to relieve the “range anxiety” (concern over how far EVs can go on a single charge) that has suppressed EV sales with advances in battery technology and rapid re-charging.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If I have a car that has 300 miles of range and I only have to pull over every 4-5 hours for 15 minutes, do I really need dynamic wireless charging?” asks Mark Duvall, who heads technology utilization at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.epri.com/#/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Electric Power Research Institute\u003c/a> in Palo Alto.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Duvall says range anxiety is well on its way to being quelled without dynamic charging.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A little bit of infrastructure can facilitate essentially continuous travel by electric vehicles,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Big Bucks\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dynamic charging would be hugely expensive to implement. Two years ago, the British government earmarked $800 million just for \u003ca href=\"http://www.altenergymag.com/article/2016/02/the-dynamic-road-ahead-england-to-conduct-trials-of-dynamic-wireless-charging-for-electric-cars/22820/\">early testing of dynamic charging\u003c/a>, before even taking it on the road. Laying down a single lane of freeway in California can run about $1 million per mile, with no frills like charging grids.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Highways are expensive enough as they are,” says Duvall, “which is why many of them are not in the condition that we would like them to be in.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But neither Duvall nor Tal are dismissing the potential of dynamic wireless charging in general. Both agree with Fan that the potential uses abound, including many that no one has yet thought of. Wearable and embedded medical devices could be recharged as patients go about their daily activities—or it could just turn that line at Starbucks into productive time for your phone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I can see many reasons why you would want to improve technology around wireless power transfer, even if you never used it for vehicles,” says Duvall.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The dream of wireless charging on the fly is getting closer, but cars might not be the best place for it.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704928535,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":27,"wordCount":960},"headData":{"title":"Charge-as-You-Go Electric Cars: Sounds Great, But Do We Really Need Them? | KQED","description":"The dream of wireless charging on the fly is getting closer, but cars might not be the best place for it.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Charge-as-You-Go Electric Cars: Sounds Great, But Do We Really Need Them?","datePublished":"2017-07-17T15:00:21.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:15:35.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2017/10/ElectricCars.mp3","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1842642/charge-as-you-go-electric-cars-sounds-great-but-do-we-really-need-them","audioDuration":272000,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Drivers of electric cars are quick to tell you how much they love never having to stop at a gas station.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But they still have to stop and plug in. What if you could completely cut loose electric cars to roam this great land, recharging their batteries on the fly?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s been a dream of automotive engineers for years, and scientists at \u003ca href=\"https://www.stanford.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Stanford University\u003c/a> say it just took a leap forward in one of their labs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Electrical engineer \u003ca href=\"http://web.stanford.edu/group/fan/\">Shanhui Fan\u003c/a> and graduate student Sid Assawaworrarit say they’ve \u003ca href=\"http://news.stanford.edu/press/view/14763\">broken through\u003c/a> a major technical barrier on the road to what engineers call “dynamic charging.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dynamic Charging Gets a Boost\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Generally speaking,” says Fan, with his gift for understatement, “I think what we have done here is really to show that you could charge a moving object efficiently.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1843093\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1843093\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584.jpg\" alt=\"Electrical engineers Sid Assawaworrarit (left) and Shanhui Fan examine their demonstration apparatus for dynamic charging in their lab at Stanford.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1500\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/IMG_7584-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Electrical engineers Sid Assawaworrarit (left) and Shanhui Fan (right) examine their demonstration apparatus for dynamic charging in their lab at Stanford. \u003ccite>(Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Wireless charging of stationary objects is already becoming ho-hum, finding uses from cell phones to shuttle buses. Ford recently rolled out a \u003ca href=\"http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/750221/Ford-wireless-charging-electric-cars-CES-2017\">wireless system\u003c/a> that EV owners can install in their own garages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Charging moving objects is a lot trickier. Previous work in the United Kingdom and South Korea has used magnetic induction systems, in which a charged coil creates a magnetic field that jiggles electrons in a nearby companion coil, causing it to create its own electric current. It’s what happens when you set your electric toothbrush onto the charging base. But the technology only works over very short distances and breaks down quickly as the two coils move apart.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/7nkOgiTxfEs'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/7nkOgiTxfEs'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By adding some off-the-shelf components, Fan and Assawaworrarit have found a way to amplify the voltage and current and keep the two coils humming, even as one of them moves through the field. Their magnetic resonance approach has been called “ingenious,” and while they’ve so far demonstrated it only at very low power—enough to keep two LEDs lit for a few feet—Fan suggests that a scaled-up version could be the answer to charge-as-you-go electric driving. Their work was published in June, in the journal Nature.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Always a Catch\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s the catch: it’s not just the cars that would need the necessary hardware. Arrays of charging pads would have to be embedded in roadways to create charging lanes. As dynamic charging cars passed over the pads, they would pick up the magnetic field and charge on the fly. The pads would have to be close enough together to create a continuous field for cars to pass through.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-1843403\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"340\" height=\"605\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03.jpg 750w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03-160x285.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03-240x427.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03-375x667.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/07/Charging_V03-520x925.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 340px) 100vw, 340px\">\u003c/a>“The technology is not going to be as efficient as just plugging in your car,” says \u003ca href=\"https://itspubs.ucdavis.edu/index.php/about/single/?person=tal-gil\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Gil Tal\u003c/a>, who directs research at the \u003ca href=\"https://its.ucdavis.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Institute of Transportation Studies\u003c/a> at UC Davis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For one thing, cars are parked a lot more than they’re moving—on average 23 hours a day. And much of that time is overnight, the ideal time to plug in while there’s slack demand for electricity and thus, less pressure on the electric grid. Roadway pads would presumably be charged 24-7 off the grid or by nearby solar panels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You will have losses,” says Tal. Even with the best of technology, you’ll lose quite a bit of energy.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EV age got a significant boost lately by a string of announcements from major players. With great fanfare, Tesla delivered its first car designed for the mass market, the Model 3. Volvo stunned many observers with its plan to build only EVs or hybrids within a couple of model years, and France says it plans to ban internal combustion engines all together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Along with this momentum, automakers are racing to relieve the “range anxiety” (concern over how far EVs can go on a single charge) that has suppressed EV sales with advances in battery technology and rapid re-charging.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If I have a car that has 300 miles of range and I only have to pull over every 4-5 hours for 15 minutes, do I really need dynamic wireless charging?” asks Mark Duvall, who heads technology utilization at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.epri.com/#/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Electric Power Research Institute\u003c/a> in Palo Alto.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Duvall says range anxiety is well on its way to being quelled without dynamic charging.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A little bit of infrastructure can facilitate essentially continuous travel by electric vehicles,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Big Bucks\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dynamic charging would be hugely expensive to implement. Two years ago, the British government earmarked $800 million just for \u003ca href=\"http://www.altenergymag.com/article/2016/02/the-dynamic-road-ahead-england-to-conduct-trials-of-dynamic-wireless-charging-for-electric-cars/22820/\">early testing of dynamic charging\u003c/a>, before even taking it on the road. Laying down a single lane of freeway in California can run about $1 million per mile, with no frills like charging grids.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Highways are expensive enough as they are,” says Duvall, “which is why many of them are not in the condition that we would like them to be in.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But neither Duvall nor Tal are dismissing the potential of dynamic wireless charging in general. Both agree with Fan that the potential uses abound, including many that no one has yet thought of. Wearable and embedded medical devices could be recharged as patients go about their daily activities—or it could just turn that line at Starbucks into productive time for your phone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I can see many reasons why you would want to improve technology around wireless power transfer, even if you never used it for vehicles,” says Duvall.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1842642/charge-as-you-go-electric-cars-sounds-great-but-do-we-really-need-them","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_33","science_89","science_40"],"tags":["science_845","science_134","science_3370"],"featImg":"science_1842923","label":"science"},"science_1518365":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1518365","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1518365","score":null,"sort":[1491229822000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"fuel-economy-standards-pushing-auto-makers-to-greener-cars","title":"A 50 MPG Car May Be in Your Future No Matter What Trump Does","publishDate":1491229822,"format":"audio","headTitle":"A 50 MPG Car May Be in Your Future No Matter What Trump Does | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>California is forging ahead with strict climate change goals, despite the Trump Administration’s efforts to ease regulations on many fronts. One area of possible conflict is on auto emissions standards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state \u003ca href=\"https://www.arb.ca.gov/homepage.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Air Resources Board\u003c/a> recently voted to reaffirm California’s emissions standards for vehicles sold between 2022 and 2025. Right now, federal and state standards are the same, but President Trump last month ordered a review of the federal standards, telling automakers in Detroit he wants to loosen regulations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>KQED’s Brian Watt spoke with \u003ca href=\"http://greencarinstitute.org/about-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ron Cogan\u003c/a>, president of the \u003ca href=\"http://greencarinstitute.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Green Car Institute\u003c/a> in San Luis Obispo, for his perspective on the issue. Here’s an edited transcript of that conversation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Watt: These standards would mean an average of about 54 miles per gallon across all vehicle types. What does that mean the auto industry needs to do?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We have always said that even though we understand the automakers and they have to make a profit, I still feel you have to keep automakers’ feet to the fire.’\u003ccite>Ron Cogan President, Green Car Institute\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Cogan: Automakers have to do a lot. That’s a very, very high number for fuel efficiency. It’s not that it can’t be achieved, it’s just going to cost a lot of money to get there and a lot of R&D.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Watt: You say it’s a lot. But the auto industry has had five years to prepare for these standards. They still don’t go into effect for another five years. So what is so hard about doing this for the industry?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cogan: Cars, for the longest time, were getting 15 miles a gallon, 20 miles a gallon. Then we started seeing cars over 30 miles a gallon. You have hybrids that can get 50 miles a gallon. But most cars cannot. To get to that point, it takes a lot of advanced technology; a lot of advanced materials. So when you say they have five years to do it, well that may be, but in five years, to do that is going to absolutely require a lot of electrification, plug in hybrids and battery electric cars and so on. But the cost is significant and that’s the core issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1520765\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 327px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1520765 \" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/03/Ron-Cogan-Capitol-Hill-1020x1400.jpg\" alt=\"Ron Cogan \" width=\"327\" height=\"446\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ron Cogan\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>You have to convince buyers to spend $800 to $1200 more for a vehicle purchase with the thought they are going to save money in the long run. And that’s not an easy path. So it’s easy to point that out. It is not so easy to change consumer behaviors and encourage them to buy those fuel efficient cars at a much greater cost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Watt: Last week at the state air board hearing, Steve Douglas with the \u003ca href=\"https://autoalliance.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers\u003c/a> testified. He’s the group’s senior director of energy and environment. He said consumers aren’t buying enough electric cars for them to meet the standards [and sales would have to triple to meet the regulations]. So you mention that it’s tough to convince a consumer to spend $800 to $1,200 per car. But why aren’t consumers more interested in electric cars, period?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cogan: A battery electric car is quite expensive to make. Batteries are very expensive. It’s the same issue electric cars had in the 90s. They’ve come a long way since then. And now we have plug-in hybrids that give you some battery range. We have battery electric cars that can give you 80 or 110 miles. The Chevy Bolt EV can give you 238 miles. Those are all good moves. But cars—electric cars—are more expensive than conventional cars. And many of them have limited driving ranges. So when it’s said that not that many are stepping up compared to conventional vehicles, absolutely true. Because at this point, electric vehicles don’t fit the needs of everyone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If someone needs a car for commuting, and they have an electric car that gives them an 80 mile range, they may not feel comfortable with their daily commute in that car. Some may, if they’re only commuting 20 miles—it’s perfect for them. But for so many others, they don’t want to have a car so limited, which is again why plug-in hybrids are so important. You drive maybe 15, 30 miles on electric power and then you’re driving a hybrid after that with no limit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Watt: Is it possible that vehicles could become cleaner without these regulations?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cogan: We have always said that even though we understand the automakers and they have to make a profit, I still feel you have to keep automakers’ feet to the fire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the absence of that, research and development will slow in that area. Automakers will, as a matter of course, look for vehicles that deliver a profit. But they also have to be competitive, which means fuel efficiency is important to a lot of buyers. They will have to continue to make better and better vehicles, that get higher and higher fuel efficiency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Without requirements, though, the pace will slow. So, we will eventually get there, but the federal regulations and the state regulations are driving this on a faster timeline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Ron Cogan is president of the \u003ca href=\"http://greencarinstitute.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Green Car Institute\u003c/a>, which educates consumers, the media and the industry on the benefits of environmentally conscious vehicles and technologies.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Green car expert Ron Cogan says automakers can meet tough new fuel economy standards by 2025 if their feet are held to the fire.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704928901,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":18,"wordCount":934},"headData":{"title":"A 50 MPG Car May Be in Your Future No Matter What Trump Does | KQED","description":"Green car expert Ron Cogan says automakers can meet tough new fuel economy standards by 2025 if their feet are held to the fire.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"A 50 MPG Car May Be in Your Future No Matter What Trump Does","datePublished":"2017-04-03T14:30:22.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:21:41.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio//2017/03/WEBEmissions2WayCogan170403.mp3","sticky":false,"nprByline":"KQED Science","path":"/science/1518365/fuel-economy-standards-pushing-auto-makers-to-greener-cars","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>California is forging ahead with strict climate change goals, despite the Trump Administration’s efforts to ease regulations on many fronts. One area of possible conflict is on auto emissions standards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The state \u003ca href=\"https://www.arb.ca.gov/homepage.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Air Resources Board\u003c/a> recently voted to reaffirm California’s emissions standards for vehicles sold between 2022 and 2025. Right now, federal and state standards are the same, but President Trump last month ordered a review of the federal standards, telling automakers in Detroit he wants to loosen regulations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>KQED’s Brian Watt spoke with \u003ca href=\"http://greencarinstitute.org/about-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ron Cogan\u003c/a>, president of the \u003ca href=\"http://greencarinstitute.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Green Car Institute\u003c/a> in San Luis Obispo, for his perspective on the issue. Here’s an edited transcript of that conversation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Watt: These standards would mean an average of about 54 miles per gallon across all vehicle types. What does that mean the auto industry needs to do?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We have always said that even though we understand the automakers and they have to make a profit, I still feel you have to keep automakers’ feet to the fire.’\u003ccite>Ron Cogan President, Green Car Institute\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Cogan: Automakers have to do a lot. That’s a very, very high number for fuel efficiency. It’s not that it can’t be achieved, it’s just going to cost a lot of money to get there and a lot of R&D.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Watt: You say it’s a lot. But the auto industry has had five years to prepare for these standards. They still don’t go into effect for another five years. So what is so hard about doing this for the industry?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cogan: Cars, for the longest time, were getting 15 miles a gallon, 20 miles a gallon. Then we started seeing cars over 30 miles a gallon. You have hybrids that can get 50 miles a gallon. But most cars cannot. To get to that point, it takes a lot of advanced technology; a lot of advanced materials. So when you say they have five years to do it, well that may be, but in five years, to do that is going to absolutely require a lot of electrification, plug in hybrids and battery electric cars and so on. But the cost is significant and that’s the core issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1520765\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 327px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1520765 \" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2017/03/Ron-Cogan-Capitol-Hill-1020x1400.jpg\" alt=\"Ron Cogan \" width=\"327\" height=\"446\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ron Cogan\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>You have to convince buyers to spend $800 to $1200 more for a vehicle purchase with the thought they are going to save money in the long run. And that’s not an easy path. So it’s easy to point that out. It is not so easy to change consumer behaviors and encourage them to buy those fuel efficient cars at a much greater cost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Watt: Last week at the state air board hearing, Steve Douglas with the \u003ca href=\"https://autoalliance.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers\u003c/a> testified. He’s the group’s senior director of energy and environment. He said consumers aren’t buying enough electric cars for them to meet the standards [and sales would have to triple to meet the regulations]. So you mention that it’s tough to convince a consumer to spend $800 to $1,200 per car. But why aren’t consumers more interested in electric cars, period?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cogan: A battery electric car is quite expensive to make. Batteries are very expensive. It’s the same issue electric cars had in the 90s. They’ve come a long way since then. And now we have plug-in hybrids that give you some battery range. We have battery electric cars that can give you 80 or 110 miles. The Chevy Bolt EV can give you 238 miles. Those are all good moves. But cars—electric cars—are more expensive than conventional cars. And many of them have limited driving ranges. So when it’s said that not that many are stepping up compared to conventional vehicles, absolutely true. Because at this point, electric vehicles don’t fit the needs of everyone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If someone needs a car for commuting, and they have an electric car that gives them an 80 mile range, they may not feel comfortable with their daily commute in that car. Some may, if they’re only commuting 20 miles—it’s perfect for them. But for so many others, they don’t want to have a car so limited, which is again why plug-in hybrids are so important. You drive maybe 15, 30 miles on electric power and then you’re driving a hybrid after that with no limit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Watt: Is it possible that vehicles could become cleaner without these regulations?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cogan: We have always said that even though we understand the automakers and they have to make a profit, I still feel you have to keep automakers’ feet to the fire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the absence of that, research and development will slow in that area. Automakers will, as a matter of course, look for vehicles that deliver a profit. But they also have to be competitive, which means fuel efficiency is important to a lot of buyers. They will have to continue to make better and better vehicles, that get higher and higher fuel efficiency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Without requirements, though, the pace will slow. So, we will eventually get there, but the federal regulations and the state regulations are driving this on a faster timeline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Ron Cogan is president of the \u003ca href=\"http://greencarinstitute.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Green Car Institute\u003c/a>, which educates consumers, the media and the industry on the benefits of environmentally conscious vehicles and technologies.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1518365/fuel-economy-standards-pushing-auto-makers-to-greener-cars","authors":["byline_science_1518365"],"categories":["science_31","science_33","science_89","science_35","science_40"],"tags":["science_845","science_3329"],"featImg":"science_1520881","label":"science"},"science_639833":{"type":"posts","id":"science_639833","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"639833","score":null,"sort":[1460760617000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"inside-teslas-mysterious-desert-battery-factory","title":"Inside Tesla’s Mysterious Desert Battery Factory","publishDate":1460760617,"format":"image","headTitle":"Inside Tesla’s Mysterious Desert Battery Factory | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Tesla’s Gigafactory is a lot like Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory: it’s mysterious, it’s big and few people have been inside.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For almost two years now, the company has been building the largest battery factory on the planet high in the Nevada desert—a factory that it says could revolutionize the way consumers use energy at home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s tucked away in a dusty valley, half an hour east of Reno. Driving up Electric Avenue, the factory is a stark contrast on the horizon. It’s a sleek white building with a red stripe, almost like one of the company’s cars.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Listen to the Story:\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nhttp://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2016/04/WEBTeslaGigafactorySommer160418.mp3\u003cbr>\n“It’s really hard to get a sense of scale,” says Tesla co-founder and Chief Technical Officer JB Straubel. “I mean, it’s huge.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’re up on the roof of the Gigafactory, the small piece that has been built already, trying to get a glimpse of that scale.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So you can see the building footprint that would be in front of us to the west and north,” he says, pointing to the flat expanse of land where the rest of the factory will go—all 5.8 million square feet of it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m not a huge football fan but I think it’s on the order of around a hundred football fields,” Straubel says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like Willy Wonka’s factory, there’s a lot of hype about this place, both for the records it’s breaking and the company’s mystique. People have been caught sneaking onto the property to see it under construction.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641708\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1200px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-641708\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2.jpg\" alt=\"Tesla begins battery production while the neighboring sections of the factory are still under construction.\" width=\"1200\" height=\"624\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2-400x208.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2-800x416.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2-768x399.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2-1180x614.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2-960x499.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tesla is beginning battery production while neighboring sections of the factory are still under construction. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With its multiple floors, it’ll be one of the largest factories in the U.S., period. Its main rival is Boeing’s factory in Everett, Washington where 747s are assembled.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nevada beat out several states by luring Tesla with an incentive package worth more than a billion dollars. Lawmakers here are watching like hawks for the economic benefits, like making sure Nevadans make up a big part of the factory’s construction crew and 6,000 permanent workers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Baking Batteries\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Inside the factory, that workforce is going full steam ahead. Workers are welding steel, pouring concrete and installing highly specialized machines, shrouded in plastic. It goes on for room after room after room.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641713\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1200px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-641713\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1.jpg\" alt=\"Production is underway for Tesla's home battery, the Powerwall.\" width=\"1200\" height=\"655\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1-400x218.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1-800x437.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1-768x419.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1-1180x644.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1-960x524.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Production is underway for Tesla’s home battery, the Powerwall. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“So this is a pretty exciting room,” Straubel says. It’s filled with huge metal tanks, almost like an insanely-large industrial kitchen. “This is where we will actually mix the materials, the raw materials, we mix them into what’s called a slurry.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The main pieces of the lithium-ion batteries, the anode and cathode, are baked by huge machines in yet another room.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a little bit like a giant baking oven except it’s a few hundred feet long,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As each section of the Gigafactory is completed, Tesla moves in and starts battery production immediately. It will eventually be connected by rail to Tesla’s car-assembly plant in Fremont, California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Straubel says the Gigafactory will even run on renewable energy from solar panels covering the roof, as well as off-site renewable projects and batteries, of course.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641717\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1200px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-641717\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3.jpg\" alt=\"Tesla CTO JB Straubel in front of Powerpacks, refrigerator-size batteries for factories or electric utilities.\" width=\"1200\" height=\"693\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3-400x231.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3-800x462.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3-768x444.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3-1180x681.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3-960x554.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tesla CTO JB Straubel in front of Powerpacks, refrigerator-size batteries for factories or electric utilities. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>All About Scale\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tesla expects the factory, created in partnership with Panasonic, to double the world’s capacity for lithium-ion battery production, eventually making 35 gigawatt-hours of energy storage annually. That would supply 500,000 of its electric cars, a significant leap over what the company is producing now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not just about building a lot more batteries but it’s about reducing the cost,” Straubel says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641710\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 355px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-641710\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla_V06_160415-400x711.png\" alt=\"Tesla_V06_160415\" width=\"355\" height=\"631\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla_V06_160415-400x711.png 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla_V06_160415.png 750w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 355px) 100vw, 355px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Tesla. Graphics by Teodros Hailye/KQED\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Tesla is known for its pricey cars. Its sedan, the Model S, starts at $76,500 before tax credits, and batteries are a big part of the sticker price. Analysts estimate that most battery packs cost well over $10,000.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Which is why, Straubel says, the Gigafactory is about scale. He believes scaling up could drive down the cost of batteries 30 percent or more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We think we’ll probably be able to exceed that,” Straubel says. “Our vehicles can be more affordable. More people can have access to them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s what the company is going for with the new \u003ca href=\"https://www.teslamotors.com/model3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Model 3\u003c/a>, its first mass market car, announced last month. It’ll run around $28,000 dollars after the federal tax credit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It won’t come out until late next year, but customers lined up in droves to put down $1,000 deposits.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have today over 325,000 reservations for Model 3, representing this enormous backlog of orders,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The catch is that Tesla can’t fill those orders without this factory up and running.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s part of why we’re trying to go so fast and accelerate the construction here, so we are ready ahead of time,” Straubel says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641809\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-641809\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-800x436.jpg\" alt=\"Under Nevada’s tax incentive package, half of the workers hired must be Nevada residents.\" width=\"800\" height=\"436\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-800x436.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-400x218.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-768x418.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-1440x785.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-1180x643.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-960x523.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3.jpg 1472w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Under Nevada’s tax incentive package, half of the workers hired must be Nevada residents. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Home Battery\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Just one room over, the part of the Gigafactory that is running is making something else: the \u003ca href=\"https://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall\">Powerwall\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a flat battery, about 4 feet long, 3 feet wide, and it’s Tesla’s first battery for your house. There are stacks of them on the factory floor, ready to ship to customers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If someone has solar on their house and they install a Powerwall, what this lets you do is store your surplus solar energy,” Straubel says. Homeowners could then use around 7 kilowatt-hours of that stored energy at night, which is several hours’ worth, depending on energy demand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641719\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 400px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-641719\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Powerwall-400x344.jpg\" alt=\"Tesla's home battery, designed to store solar energy for use at night.\" width=\"400\" height=\"344\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Powerwall-400x344.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Powerwall.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Powerwall-768x660.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tesla’s home battery, designed to store solar energy for use at night. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The production floor is also stacked with Powerpacks, a larger version of the battery about the size of a refrigerator. They’re designed to store electricity at factories, industrial sites, or on the grid itself by electric utilities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The machines humming in this part of the plant are part of Tesla’s ultimate vision for their customers: an electric car in the garage and batteries that store all the solar power they need. It’s a future free of fossil fuels, Straubel says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Batteries are the missing piece in allowing sustainable energy to scale up to 100 percent of our energy needs,” he says. “We’re confident that eventually just about every vehicle on the road will move to being electric.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s changing the transportation landscape. That’s changing the energy landscape. It is changing the world,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It probably doesn’t need to be said: trying to change the world is a major gamble.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gamble in the Desert\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Is [Tesla CEO] Elon Musk far-seeing and investing in the future? Or is he making big bets that could all collapse at once?” says Severin Borenstein, an energy economist at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When it comes to fighting climate change, Borenstien says the world could use lots of electric cars and low-cost, solar batteries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641722\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-641722\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-800x389.jpg\" alt=\"An artist rendering of the Gigafactory, covered in solar panels that will power the facility.\" width=\"800\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-800x389.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-400x195.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-768x374.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-1440x701.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-1180x574.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-960x467.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective.jpg 1878w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An artist rendering of the Gigafactory, covered in solar panels that will power the facility. \u003ccite>(Tesla)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“If we could figure out a way to produce batteries at large-scale and low-cost, it would really be a game changer for reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The question, he says, is whether consumers are ready to buy into Tesla’s vision.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gas prices have been extremely low, which hurts demand for efficient cars. And then there’s the $3,000 Powerwall battery. Electric rates in many states make it hard to actually save money storing your own electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In California and some other states, solar customers are paid by their electric utilities for the extra solar power they put onto the grid, a policy known as “\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/12/07/with-rooftop-solar-booming-california-utilities-want-to-charge-more/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">net-energy metering\u003c/a>.” That creates little financial incentive to store solar energy at home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A battery could save someone money if electricity costs a lot more at night than it does during the day. Borenstein says few states have those kind of electricity prices.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Average households are not going to get much or any value from these batteries,” Borenstein says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641724\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-641724\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-800x403.jpg\" alt=\"Tesla's Powerwall production line.\" width=\"800\" height=\"403\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-800x403.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-400x202.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-768x387.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-1180x595.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-960x484.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tesla’s Powerwall production line. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Early adopters may not care, though.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re people who like that and feel good about it and they’re mostly pretty darn rich,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tesla is betting that cheaper batteries will make everyone else want a home battery and electric car, too, something that could finally lead the company to profitability.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The $5 billion Gigafactory is exactly that gamble. If Tesla stays on schedule, the factory will be fully open in four years.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"It'll be the largest battery factory on the planet and Tesla is betting it'll be revolutionary.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704930315,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":52,"wordCount":1591},"headData":{"title":"Inside Tesla’s Mysterious Desert Battery Factory | KQED","description":"It'll be the largest battery factory on the planet and Tesla is betting it'll be revolutionary.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Inside Tesla’s Mysterious Desert Battery Factory","datePublished":"2016-04-15T22:50:17.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:45:15.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/639833/inside-teslas-mysterious-desert-battery-factory","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2016/04/WEBTeslaGigafactorySommer160418.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Tesla’s Gigafactory is a lot like Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory: it’s mysterious, it’s big and few people have been inside.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For almost two years now, the company has been building the largest battery factory on the planet high in the Nevada desert—a factory that it says could revolutionize the way consumers use energy at home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s tucked away in a dusty valley, half an hour east of Reno. Driving up Electric Avenue, the factory is a stark contrast on the horizon. It’s a sleek white building with a red stripe, almost like one of the company’s cars.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Listen to the Story:\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nhttp://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2016/04/WEBTeslaGigafactorySommer160418.mp3\u003cbr>\n“It’s really hard to get a sense of scale,” says Tesla co-founder and Chief Technical Officer JB Straubel. “I mean, it’s huge.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’re up on the roof of the Gigafactory, the small piece that has been built already, trying to get a glimpse of that scale.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“So you can see the building footprint that would be in front of us to the west and north,” he says, pointing to the flat expanse of land where the rest of the factory will go—all 5.8 million square feet of it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m not a huge football fan but I think it’s on the order of around a hundred football fields,” Straubel says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like Willy Wonka’s factory, there’s a lot of hype about this place, both for the records it’s breaking and the company’s mystique. People have been caught sneaking onto the property to see it under construction.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641708\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1200px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-641708\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2.jpg\" alt=\"Tesla begins battery production while the neighboring sections of the factory are still under construction.\" width=\"1200\" height=\"624\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2-400x208.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2-800x416.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2-768x399.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2-1180x614.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside2-960x499.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tesla is beginning battery production while neighboring sections of the factory are still under construction. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With its multiple floors, it’ll be one of the largest factories in the U.S., period. Its main rival is Boeing’s factory in Everett, Washington where 747s are assembled.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nevada beat out several states by luring Tesla with an incentive package worth more than a billion dollars. Lawmakers here are watching like hawks for the economic benefits, like making sure Nevadans make up a big part of the factory’s construction crew and 6,000 permanent workers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Baking Batteries\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Inside the factory, that workforce is going full steam ahead. Workers are welding steel, pouring concrete and installing highly specialized machines, shrouded in plastic. It goes on for room after room after room.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641713\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1200px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-641713\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1.jpg\" alt=\"Production is underway for Tesla's home battery, the Powerwall.\" width=\"1200\" height=\"655\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1-400x218.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1-800x437.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1-768x419.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1-1180x644.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside1-960x524.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Production is underway for Tesla’s home battery, the Powerwall. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“So this is a pretty exciting room,” Straubel says. It’s filled with huge metal tanks, almost like an insanely-large industrial kitchen. “This is where we will actually mix the materials, the raw materials, we mix them into what’s called a slurry.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The main pieces of the lithium-ion batteries, the anode and cathode, are baked by huge machines in yet another room.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a little bit like a giant baking oven except it’s a few hundred feet long,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As each section of the Gigafactory is completed, Tesla moves in and starts battery production immediately. It will eventually be connected by rail to Tesla’s car-assembly plant in Fremont, California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Straubel says the Gigafactory will even run on renewable energy from solar panels covering the roof, as well as off-site renewable projects and batteries, of course.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641717\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1200px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-641717\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3.jpg\" alt=\"Tesla CTO JB Straubel in front of Powerpacks, refrigerator-size batteries for factories or electric utilities.\" width=\"1200\" height=\"693\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3-400x231.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3-800x462.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3-768x444.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3-1180x681.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside3-960x554.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tesla CTO JB Straubel in front of Powerpacks, refrigerator-size batteries for factories or electric utilities. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>All About Scale\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tesla expects the factory, created in partnership with Panasonic, to double the world’s capacity for lithium-ion battery production, eventually making 35 gigawatt-hours of energy storage annually. That would supply 500,000 of its electric cars, a significant leap over what the company is producing now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not just about building a lot more batteries but it’s about reducing the cost,” Straubel says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641710\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 355px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-641710\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla_V06_160415-400x711.png\" alt=\"Tesla_V06_160415\" width=\"355\" height=\"631\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla_V06_160415-400x711.png 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla_V06_160415.png 750w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 355px) 100vw, 355px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Tesla. Graphics by Teodros Hailye/KQED\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Tesla is known for its pricey cars. Its sedan, the Model S, starts at $76,500 before tax credits, and batteries are a big part of the sticker price. Analysts estimate that most battery packs cost well over $10,000.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Which is why, Straubel says, the Gigafactory is about scale. He believes scaling up could drive down the cost of batteries 30 percent or more.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We think we’ll probably be able to exceed that,” Straubel says. “Our vehicles can be more affordable. More people can have access to them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s what the company is going for with the new \u003ca href=\"https://www.teslamotors.com/model3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Model 3\u003c/a>, its first mass market car, announced last month. It’ll run around $28,000 dollars after the federal tax credit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It won’t come out until late next year, but customers lined up in droves to put down $1,000 deposits.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have today over 325,000 reservations for Model 3, representing this enormous backlog of orders,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The catch is that Tesla can’t fill those orders without this factory up and running.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s part of why we’re trying to go so fast and accelerate the construction here, so we are ready ahead of time,” Straubel says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641809\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-641809\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-800x436.jpg\" alt=\"Under Nevada’s tax incentive package, half of the workers hired must be Nevada residents.\" width=\"800\" height=\"436\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-800x436.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-400x218.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-768x418.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-1440x785.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-1180x643.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3-960x523.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Outside3.jpg 1472w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Under Nevada’s tax incentive package, half of the workers hired must be Nevada residents. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Home Battery\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Just one room over, the part of the Gigafactory that is running is making something else: the \u003ca href=\"https://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall\">Powerwall\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a flat battery, about 4 feet long, 3 feet wide, and it’s Tesla’s first battery for your house. There are stacks of them on the factory floor, ready to ship to customers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If someone has solar on their house and they install a Powerwall, what this lets you do is store your surplus solar energy,” Straubel says. Homeowners could then use around 7 kilowatt-hours of that stored energy at night, which is several hours’ worth, depending on energy demand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641719\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 400px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-641719\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Powerwall-400x344.jpg\" alt=\"Tesla's home battery, designed to store solar energy for use at night.\" width=\"400\" height=\"344\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Powerwall-400x344.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Powerwall.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Powerwall-768x660.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tesla’s home battery, designed to store solar energy for use at night. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The production floor is also stacked with Powerpacks, a larger version of the battery about the size of a refrigerator. They’re designed to store electricity at factories, industrial sites, or on the grid itself by electric utilities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The machines humming in this part of the plant are part of Tesla’s ultimate vision for their customers: an electric car in the garage and batteries that store all the solar power they need. It’s a future free of fossil fuels, Straubel says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Batteries are the missing piece in allowing sustainable energy to scale up to 100 percent of our energy needs,” he says. “We’re confident that eventually just about every vehicle on the road will move to being electric.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s changing the transportation landscape. That’s changing the energy landscape. It is changing the world,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It probably doesn’t need to be said: trying to change the world is a major gamble.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Gamble in the Desert\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Is [Tesla CEO] Elon Musk far-seeing and investing in the future? Or is he making big bets that could all collapse at once?” says Severin Borenstein, an energy economist at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When it comes to fighting climate change, Borenstien says the world could use lots of electric cars and low-cost, solar batteries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641722\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-641722\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-800x389.jpg\" alt=\"An artist rendering of the Gigafactory, covered in solar panels that will power the facility.\" width=\"800\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-800x389.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-400x195.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-768x374.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-1440x701.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-1180x574.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective-960x467.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Tesla-Aerial-Perspective.jpg 1878w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">An artist rendering of the Gigafactory, covered in solar panels that will power the facility. \u003ccite>(Tesla)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“If we could figure out a way to produce batteries at large-scale and low-cost, it would really be a game changer for reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The question, he says, is whether consumers are ready to buy into Tesla’s vision.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gas prices have been extremely low, which hurts demand for efficient cars. And then there’s the $3,000 Powerwall battery. Electric rates in many states make it hard to actually save money storing your own electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In California and some other states, solar customers are paid by their electric utilities for the extra solar power they put onto the grid, a policy known as “\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/12/07/with-rooftop-solar-booming-california-utilities-want-to-charge-more/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">net-energy metering\u003c/a>.” That creates little financial incentive to store solar energy at home.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A battery could save someone money if electricity costs a lot more at night than it does during the day. Borenstein says few states have those kind of electricity prices.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Average households are not going to get much or any value from these batteries,” Borenstein says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641724\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-641724\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-800x403.jpg\" alt=\"Tesla's Powerwall production line.\" width=\"800\" height=\"403\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-800x403.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-400x202.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-768x387.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-1180x595.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2-960x484.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/Inside2.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tesla’s Powerwall production line. \u003ccite>(Lauren Sommer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Early adopters may not care, though.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re people who like that and feel good about it and they’re mostly pretty darn rich,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tesla is betting that cheaper batteries will make everyone else want a home battery and electric car, too, something that could finally lead the company to profitability.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The $5 billion Gigafactory is exactly that gamble. If Tesla stays on schedule, the factory will be fully open in four years.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/639833/inside-teslas-mysterious-desert-battery-factory","authors":["239"],"categories":["science_46","science_33","science_89","science_35","science_40","science_43"],"tags":["science_188","science_845","science_140"],"featImg":"science_641705","label":"science"},"science_12350":{"type":"posts","id":"science_12350","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"12350","score":null,"sort":[1388413825000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"2013-progress-but-long-road-ahead-to-calif-climate-goals","title":"2013: Progress, But Long Road Ahead to California Climate Goals","publishDate":1388413825,"format":"aside","headTitle":"2013: Progress, But Long Road Ahead to California Climate Goals | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>2013 was a pivotal year for California’s efforts to confront the increasingly ominous threats from climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nation’s broadest cap-and-trade program for carbon pollution kicked in, and Governor Jerry Brown joined in two \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/10/28/climate-pact-west-coast-states-bc-vow-to-step-up-attack-on-warming/\">new multi-state pacts\u003c/a> aimed at curbing emissions. But seven years after passing its landmark climate law, California’s journey toward attaining its climate goals has just begun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12580\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12580\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/traffic.jpg\" alt=\"A key way for California to cut emissions is by boosting low- and zero-emission vehicles. (Deborah Svoboda/KQED) \" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A key way for California to cut emissions is by boosting low- and zero-emission vehicles. (Deborah Svoboda/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>After years of effort by California policymakers to shrink the state’s carbon footprint, the darnedest thing happened: the economy rebounded from its three-year recession—and \u003ca title=\"Bloomberg - post\" href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-04/california-emissions-climb-in-2012-on-low-nuclear-hydro-supply.html\">so did greenhouse gas emissions\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Over the past year, for instance, we’ve begun to see that emissions are rising again,” says Stanley Young with the California Air Resources Board. “But the interesting thing is that they are not rising as fast as the California economy is growing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young’s agency is charged with \u003ca title=\"CARB - scoping plan\" href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scopingplan.htm\">developing rules\u003c/a> to meet the state’s legislated mandate to cut carbon emissions back to 1990 levels, by 2020. Young is not deterred by the post-recession set-back.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We will be able to make our 2020 goals,” he said in an interview. “That is clear.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What’s not so clear is what happens after that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our best guess is that we are well on our way to meeting the 2020 standard, so the policies that we have in place do seem to be sufficient for that,” says\u003ca title=\"LBNL - Greenblatt\" href=\"http://eetd.lbl.gov/people/jeffery-greenblatt\"> Jeff Greenblatt\u003c/a>, an energy scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. “But looking to 2030 and beyond, we’re gonna have to do more.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The 80 percent solution\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Greenblatt raised some eyebrows in early November when he \u003ca title=\"LBNL - Report\" href=\"http://eetd.lbl.gov/news/article/57123/estimating-policy-driven-greenh\">published projections\u003c/a> of what it will take to hit California’s long-term goal, set by executive order during the Schwarzenegger years: an 80 percent cut in emissions by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the Air Board’s Young sees it, California is on a roll: “We’re seeing far more electric vehicles on the road, for instance. That’s an important part of the plan.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But even with the recent impressive growth of plug-in electric cars, it’s early in the game. California just\u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/10/24/california-joins-eight-state-roadmap-toward-more-electric-cars/\"> joined with seven other states\u003c/a> in a push to get 3.3 million “zero-emission” vehicles on the road by 2025. Depending on what you count, there are 25 to 30 million registered vehicles on the road right now, just in California—and Greenblatt says 80 to 90 percent would have to be zero-emission (electric or otherwise) to get to that 2050 goal, because transportation accounts for the biggest single chunk of California’s carbon footprint.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These cars are driving around all over the place, so you can’t capture the CO2 from their tailpipes and store it somewhere,” Greenblatt explained in a recent interview. “So it’s very important to be able to shift to a low-carbon energy carrier like electricity or like hydrogen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Decarbonizing your electrical outlets\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, electric cars are only as clean as the juice that powers them. Regulators say the state is on track to hit another key target for 2020: generating one-third of its electrical power from renewable sources like wind, solar and geothermal. But by Greenblatt’s reckoning, that won’t be enough for the long haul, either.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We essentially need our electricity system to run without any carbon emissions at all in 2050.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yikes. That’s 100 percent carbon-free electricity. But that daunting assertion doesn’t mean all renewable power, which is good because many experts agree that goal may not be possible. Some have calculated that \u003ca title=\"NPR - story\" href=\"http://www.npr.org/2013/12/02/248230187/slashing-fossil-fuel-consumption-comes-with-a-price\">80 percent renewables\u003c/a> may be technically feasible—but not without a major update to the electrical grid.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We may still need to burn some natural gas and capture its carbon emissions, so they don’t get into the air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since the shutdown of Southern California Edison’s San Onofre nuclear power plant near San Diego, utilities have used natural gas to replace the carbon-free nuclear power lost from the grid. That set off alarms with environmental groups, who took to the streets in San Francisco this month, demanding that state regulators require renewable replacement power.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>An optimist in spite of the numbers\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I guess I would say, I’m an optimist but I don’t think this is gonna happen without a lot of trial and challenge, says Greenblatt, who expressed concern that his report was misconstrued in news accounts when it came out in November. He says it’s not that we can’t get to the 2050 goals. It’s that we won’t get there unless we step up our game—even beyond the aggressive policies the state has put in place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s why this year, the Air Board rolled out \u003ca href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2013_update/discussion_draft.pdf\">a revised playbook\u003c/a> that includes some new initiatives and suggested the state adopt new 2030 goals, moving the target a little closer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need a midpoint,” says the Air Board’s Young. “2050 is too far off to really grasp. From a broad policy perspective, we can take a look at where we need to be. But in terms of the programmatic elements, that’s a harder crystal ball.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Already, the idea of a “midterm” target is raising hackles. Some say the state’s landmark climate law has no authority after 2020. So we might need a whole new law to keep things rolling. And even the state’s pioneering cap-and-trade program remains under legal assault from industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But I refuse to give up,” says Greenblatt, who says he’s had to reassure his nine-year-old daughter that he’s working on the problem as hard as he can. “I want to live to see 2050 happen and to say we actually did this.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Despite its deserved reputation for climate leadership, California will have to hustle to make its own long-range emissions goals.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704934467,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":27,"wordCount":1051},"headData":{"title":"2013: Progress, But Long Road Ahead to California Climate Goals | KQED","description":"Despite its deserved reputation for climate leadership, California will have to hustle to make its own long-range emissions goals.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"2013: Progress, But Long Road Ahead to California Climate Goals","datePublished":"2013-12-30T14:30:25.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:54:27.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2013/12/20131230science.mp3","sticky":false,"path":"/science/12350/2013-progress-but-long-road-ahead-to-calif-climate-goals","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>2013 was a pivotal year for California’s efforts to confront the increasingly ominous threats from climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nation’s broadest cap-and-trade program for carbon pollution kicked in, and Governor Jerry Brown joined in two \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/10/28/climate-pact-west-coast-states-bc-vow-to-step-up-attack-on-warming/\">new multi-state pacts\u003c/a> aimed at curbing emissions. But seven years after passing its landmark climate law, California’s journey toward attaining its climate goals has just begun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12580\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12580\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/12/traffic.jpg\" alt=\"A key way for California to cut emissions is by boosting low- and zero-emission vehicles. (Deborah Svoboda/KQED) \" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A key way for California to cut emissions is by boosting low- and zero-emission vehicles. (Deborah Svoboda/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>After years of effort by California policymakers to shrink the state’s carbon footprint, the darnedest thing happened: the economy rebounded from its three-year recession—and \u003ca title=\"Bloomberg - post\" href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-04/california-emissions-climb-in-2012-on-low-nuclear-hydro-supply.html\">so did greenhouse gas emissions\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Over the past year, for instance, we’ve begun to see that emissions are rising again,” says Stanley Young with the California Air Resources Board. “But the interesting thing is that they are not rising as fast as the California economy is growing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Young’s agency is charged with \u003ca title=\"CARB - scoping plan\" href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scopingplan.htm\">developing rules\u003c/a> to meet the state’s legislated mandate to cut carbon emissions back to 1990 levels, by 2020. Young is not deterred by the post-recession set-back.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We will be able to make our 2020 goals,” he said in an interview. “That is clear.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What’s not so clear is what happens after that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our best guess is that we are well on our way to meeting the 2020 standard, so the policies that we have in place do seem to be sufficient for that,” says\u003ca title=\"LBNL - Greenblatt\" href=\"http://eetd.lbl.gov/people/jeffery-greenblatt\"> Jeff Greenblatt\u003c/a>, an energy scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. “But looking to 2030 and beyond, we’re gonna have to do more.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The 80 percent solution\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Greenblatt raised some eyebrows in early November when he \u003ca title=\"LBNL - Report\" href=\"http://eetd.lbl.gov/news/article/57123/estimating-policy-driven-greenh\">published projections\u003c/a> of what it will take to hit California’s long-term goal, set by executive order during the Schwarzenegger years: an 80 percent cut in emissions by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the Air Board’s Young sees it, California is on a roll: “We’re seeing far more electric vehicles on the road, for instance. That’s an important part of the plan.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But even with the recent impressive growth of plug-in electric cars, it’s early in the game. California just\u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/10/24/california-joins-eight-state-roadmap-toward-more-electric-cars/\"> joined with seven other states\u003c/a> in a push to get 3.3 million “zero-emission” vehicles on the road by 2025. Depending on what you count, there are 25 to 30 million registered vehicles on the road right now, just in California—and Greenblatt says 80 to 90 percent would have to be zero-emission (electric or otherwise) to get to that 2050 goal, because transportation accounts for the biggest single chunk of California’s carbon footprint.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These cars are driving around all over the place, so you can’t capture the CO2 from their tailpipes and store it somewhere,” Greenblatt explained in a recent interview. “So it’s very important to be able to shift to a low-carbon energy carrier like electricity or like hydrogen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Decarbonizing your electrical outlets\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, electric cars are only as clean as the juice that powers them. Regulators say the state is on track to hit another key target for 2020: generating one-third of its electrical power from renewable sources like wind, solar and geothermal. But by Greenblatt’s reckoning, that won’t be enough for the long haul, either.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We essentially need our electricity system to run without any carbon emissions at all in 2050.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yikes. That’s 100 percent carbon-free electricity. But that daunting assertion doesn’t mean all renewable power, which is good because many experts agree that goal may not be possible. Some have calculated that \u003ca title=\"NPR - story\" href=\"http://www.npr.org/2013/12/02/248230187/slashing-fossil-fuel-consumption-comes-with-a-price\">80 percent renewables\u003c/a> may be technically feasible—but not without a major update to the electrical grid.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We may still need to burn some natural gas and capture its carbon emissions, so they don’t get into the air.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since the shutdown of Southern California Edison’s San Onofre nuclear power plant near San Diego, utilities have used natural gas to replace the carbon-free nuclear power lost from the grid. That set off alarms with environmental groups, who took to the streets in San Francisco this month, demanding that state regulators require renewable replacement power.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>An optimist in spite of the numbers\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I guess I would say, I’m an optimist but I don’t think this is gonna happen without a lot of trial and challenge, says Greenblatt, who expressed concern that his report was misconstrued in news accounts when it came out in November. He says it’s not that we can’t get to the 2050 goals. It’s that we won’t get there unless we step up our game—even beyond the aggressive policies the state has put in place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s why this year, the Air Board rolled out \u003ca href=\"http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2013_update/discussion_draft.pdf\">a revised playbook\u003c/a> that includes some new initiatives and suggested the state adopt new 2030 goals, moving the target a little closer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need a midpoint,” says the Air Board’s Young. “2050 is too far off to really grasp. From a broad policy perspective, we can take a look at where we need to be. But in terms of the programmatic elements, that’s a harder crystal ball.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Already, the idea of a “midterm” target is raising hackles. Some say the state’s landmark climate law has no authority after 2020. So we might need a whole new law to keep things rolling. And even the state’s pioneering cap-and-trade program remains under legal assault from industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But I refuse to give up,” says Greenblatt, who says he’s had to reassure his nine-year-old daughter that he’s working on the problem as hard as he can. “I want to live to see 2050 happen and to say we actually did this.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/12350/2013-progress-but-long-road-ahead-to-calif-climate-goals","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_46","science_31","science_33","science_89","science_35","science_40","science_43"],"tags":["science_122","science_121","science_194","science_845","science_135","science_354","science_140"],"featImg":"science_12580","label":"science"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? 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But is this once sleepy suburb ready for them?","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/American-Suburb-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"13"},"link":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?mt=2&id=1287748328","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/American-Suburb-p1086805/","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkMzMDExODgxNjA5"}},"baycurious":{"id":"baycurious","title":"Bay Curious","tagline":"Exploring the Bay Area, one question at a time","info":"KQED’s new podcast, Bay Curious, gets to the bottom of the mysteries — both profound and peculiar — that give the Bay Area its unique identity. And we’ll do it with your help! You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. As a non-partisan forum, The Club brings to the public airwaves diverse viewpoints on important topics. The Club's weekly radio broadcast - the oldest in the U.S., dating back to 1924 - is carried across the nation on public radio stations and is now podcasting. Our website archive features audio of our recent programs, as well as selected speeches from our long and distinguished history. This podcast feed is usually updated twice a week and is always un-edited.","airtime":"THU 10pm, FRI 1am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Commonwealth-Club-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.commonwealthclub.org/podcasts","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Commonwealth Club of California"},"link":"/radio/program/commonwealth-club","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/commonwealth-club-of-california-podcast/id976334034?mt=2","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5jb21tb253ZWFsdGhjbHViLm9yZy9hdWRpby9wb2RjYXN0L3dlZWtseS54bWw","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Commonwealth-Club-of-California-p1060/"}},"considerthis":{"id":"considerthis","title":"Consider This","tagline":"Make sense of the day","info":"Make sense of the day. Every weekday afternoon, Consider This helps you consider the major stories of the day in less than 15 minutes, featuring the reporting and storytelling resources of NPR. 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One of public radio's most popular programs, Fresh Air features intimate conversations with today's biggest luminaries.","airtime":"MON-FRI 7pm-8pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Fresh-Air-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.npr.org/programs/fresh-air/","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/fresh-air","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/4s8b","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=214089682&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Fresh-Air-p17/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/381444908/podcast.xml"}},"here-and-now":{"id":"here-and-now","title":"Here & Now","info":"A live production of NPR and WBUR Boston, in collaboration with stations across the country, Here & Now reflects the fluid world of news as it's happening in the middle of the day, with timely, in-depth news, interviews and conversation. 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