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You can email him at: parcuni@kqed.org","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/d5032f6f27199d478af34ad2e1d98732?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":"peterarcuni","facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"news","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]}],"headData":{"title":"Peter Arcuni | KQED","description":"Reporter","ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/d5032f6f27199d478af34ad2e1d98732?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/d5032f6f27199d478af34ad2e1d98732?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/parcuni"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"news","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"science_1941625":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1941625","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1941625","score":null,"sort":[1557790078000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"rain-in-may-not-unheard-of-in-northern-california-but-an-unusual-amount-for-entire-month","title":"Unusual 'Winter-Like Storm' Pelts San Francisco Bay Area, Sierra","publishDate":1557790078,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Unusual ‘Winter-Like Storm’ Pelts San Francisco Bay Area, Sierra | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>What the National Weather Service calls a “winter-like storm system” has pelted the North Bay with 1-2 inches of rain in the past 24 hours and lesser amounts throughout the Bay Area, with more precipitation forecast into the night.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Isolated thunderstorms are still in the picture, with potential for “periods of brief heavy downpours and small hail.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The NWS has noted unofficial May 15 rainfall records at the Northern California \u003ca href=\"https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/5092497-181/sonoma-county-community-of-venado\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">precipitation capital\u003c/a> of Venado and the Santa Rosa and Oakland airports.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Needless to say the much hyped anomalously wet May system did pretty well,” the NWS said dryly amidst the rain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Coming up: A break in the wet Thursday night and Friday, then … wait for it … another storm on Saturday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, a winter storm warning remains in effect across the Sierra until 6 a.m., Friday. In the \u003ca href=\"https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=CA125CF88A75D4.WinterStormWarning.125CF899F310CA.STOWSWSTO.e4f710e59d45eeb2086fc848d47916e7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Northern Sierra\u003c/a>, “travel will be difficult to impossible,” the NWS says. Those with travel plans across the mountain range “should prepare for occasional winter driving conditions, including chain controls, and plan for extra travel time.” Temperatures will also be colder than usual. Up to 2 feet of snow could accumulate in parts of the Central Sierra.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"An unusual winter-like storm in May has pelted the Bay Area with rain and made travel across the Sierra more difficult. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704848675,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":8,"wordCount":212},"headData":{"title":"Unusual 'Winter-Like Storm' Pelts San Francisco Bay Area, Sierra | KQED","description":"An unusual winter-like storm in May has pelted the Bay Area with rain and made travel across the Sierra more difficult. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"Weather","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1941625/rain-in-may-not-unheard-of-in-northern-california-but-an-unusual-amount-for-entire-month","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>What the National Weather Service calls a “winter-like storm system” has pelted the North Bay with 1-2 inches of rain in the past 24 hours and lesser amounts throughout the Bay Area, with more precipitation forecast into the night.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Isolated thunderstorms are still in the picture, with potential for “periods of brief heavy downpours and small hail.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The NWS has noted unofficial May 15 rainfall records at the Northern California \u003ca href=\"https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/5092497-181/sonoma-county-community-of-venado\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">precipitation capital\u003c/a> of Venado and the Santa Rosa and Oakland airports.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Needless to say the much hyped anomalously wet May system did pretty well,” the NWS said dryly amidst the rain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Coming up: A break in the wet Thursday night and Friday, then … wait for it … another storm on Saturday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, a winter storm warning remains in effect across the Sierra until 6 a.m., Friday. In the \u003ca href=\"https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=CA125CF88A75D4.WinterStormWarning.125CF899F310CA.STOWSWSTO.e4f710e59d45eeb2086fc848d47916e7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Northern Sierra\u003c/a>, “travel will be difficult to impossible,” the NWS says. Those with travel plans across the mountain range “should prepare for occasional winter driving conditions, including chain controls, and plan for extra travel time.” Temperatures will also be colder than usual. Up to 2 feet of snow could accumulate in parts of the Central Sierra.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1941625/rain-in-may-not-unheard-of-in-northern-california-but-an-unusual-amount-for-entire-month","authors":["80"],"series":["science_1151"],"categories":["science_35","science_40"],"tags":["science_2924","science_3840"],"featImg":"science_1941629","label":"source_science_1941625"},"science_1937918":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1937918","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1937918","score":null,"sort":[1549934401000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"droughts-over-but-the-dead-tree-toll-in-california-keeps-rising","title":"Drought's Over But the Dead Tree Toll in California Keeps Rising","publishDate":1549934401,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Drought’s Over But the Dead Tree Toll in California Keeps Rising | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Federal officials report that 18 million more trees have died in California since the fall of 2017 – and that’s a bit of a relief.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s better news than \u003ca href=\"https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=3457736fb0dd45f98d41ab4030ebf048\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the previous few years\u003c/a>,” says Randy Moore, regional forester at the U.S. Forest Service.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wetter weather has slowly improved conditions for thirsty pines, firs and other conifers in the last two years. A previous mortality survey in 2017 found \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1918327/california-drought-kills-27-million-more-trees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">27 million dead trees\u003c/a>. Before that, in 2016, federal scientists counted 62 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have evidence [at sites with] between 80 and 100 percent of ponderosa pines and mixed conifer — where every tree in there had died,” Moore says. “We’re starting to see a decline in that now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the latest aerial surveys boost the state’s tree-body count to at least 147 million, a staggering total since 2010, when a five-year drought set in, worsening infestations of bark beetles, and driven by climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bark beetles gained “a real big advantage” over weakened trees when the drought began nine years ago, according to Moore. “The bugs were beginning to eat at a higher level than they normally would, because with a change in climate, it’s warmer at a higher elevation,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even as precipitation remained below average, pulling out of drought has allowed forests to regain some leverage against hungry beetles. “When there’s moisture in the ground, the trees can make enough sap to squeeze the bugs out,” Moore says. “The trees are better able to defend itself against these kinds of bugs.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a statement, Cal Fire director Thom Porter called 2018’s slower rate of mortality for trees “encouraging.” But, he added, continuing deaths “are an indication that the forests of California are still under significant stress.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The worst-hit forests are found along the west side of the central and southern Sierra Nevada range, though surveys show dead and dying trees across the state, especially at higher elevations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trees in poor health amplify fire risks, a concern after the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2018/12/12/674612113/rethinking-the-past-in-the-aftermath-of-california-s-deadly-wildfires\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deadliest wildfires\u003c/a> in California’s history. Even where fire is scarce, sickened trees can fall across roads and power lines unexpectedly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Established last May, a \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/CATreeTaskForce?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3ACATreeTaskForce&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fire.ca.gov%2Ftreetaskforce%2F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forest Management Task Force\u003c/a> comprised of more than two dozen federal, state, and local agencies has cleared trees and other forest debris along roads, near power lines, and around 165 communities in the wildland-urban interface, according to Moore. In the longer term, he says government land managers have committed to management strategies that thin forests, including by using \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1927354/controlled-burns-can-help-solve-californias-fire-problem-so-why-arent-there-more-of-them\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prescribed burns\u003c/a> across the landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Between the federal government and the state, we’ve decided that we need to treat a million acres in California a year, that’s what we’re working toward,” says Moore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Reducing biomass and fire fuels in a forest is complex and expensive work, much of it funded by the State of California. In his first budget, Governor Gavin Newsom proposed spending $305 million on forest management, including $200 million from a 5-year, $1 billion program approved by lawmakers to support fire prevention efforts.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The latest survey reveals an apparent slowdown in dying trees, but California's forests are still not out of the woods.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704848853,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":15,"wordCount":548},"headData":{"title":"Drought's Over But the Dead Tree Toll in California Keeps Rising | KQED","description":"The latest survey reveals an apparent slowdown in dying trees, but California's forests are still not out of the woods.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"Weather","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1937918/droughts-over-but-the-dead-tree-toll-in-california-keeps-rising","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Federal officials report that 18 million more trees have died in California since the fall of 2017 – and that’s a bit of a relief.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s better news than \u003ca href=\"https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=3457736fb0dd45f98d41ab4030ebf048\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the previous few years\u003c/a>,” says Randy Moore, regional forester at the U.S. Forest Service.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wetter weather has slowly improved conditions for thirsty pines, firs and other conifers in the last two years. A previous mortality survey in 2017 found \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1918327/california-drought-kills-27-million-more-trees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">27 million dead trees\u003c/a>. Before that, in 2016, federal scientists counted 62 million.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have evidence [at sites with] between 80 and 100 percent of ponderosa pines and mixed conifer — where every tree in there had died,” Moore says. “We’re starting to see a decline in that now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the latest aerial surveys boost the state’s tree-body count to at least 147 million, a staggering total since 2010, when a five-year drought set in, worsening infestations of bark beetles, and driven by climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Bark beetles gained “a real big advantage” over weakened trees when the drought began nine years ago, according to Moore. “The bugs were beginning to eat at a higher level than they normally would, because with a change in climate, it’s warmer at a higher elevation,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even as precipitation remained below average, pulling out of drought has allowed forests to regain some leverage against hungry beetles. “When there’s moisture in the ground, the trees can make enough sap to squeeze the bugs out,” Moore says. “The trees are better able to defend itself against these kinds of bugs.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a statement, Cal Fire director Thom Porter called 2018’s slower rate of mortality for trees “encouraging.” But, he added, continuing deaths “are an indication that the forests of California are still under significant stress.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The worst-hit forests are found along the west side of the central and southern Sierra Nevada range, though surveys show dead and dying trees across the state, especially at higher elevations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trees in poor health amplify fire risks, a concern after the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2018/12/12/674612113/rethinking-the-past-in-the-aftermath-of-california-s-deadly-wildfires\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deadliest wildfires\u003c/a> in California’s history. Even where fire is scarce, sickened trees can fall across roads and power lines unexpectedly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Established last May, a \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/CATreeTaskForce?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3ACATreeTaskForce&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fire.ca.gov%2Ftreetaskforce%2F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forest Management Task Force\u003c/a> comprised of more than two dozen federal, state, and local agencies has cleared trees and other forest debris along roads, near power lines, and around 165 communities in the wildland-urban interface, according to Moore. In the longer term, he says government land managers have committed to management strategies that thin forests, including by using \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1927354/controlled-burns-can-help-solve-californias-fire-problem-so-why-arent-there-more-of-them\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prescribed burns\u003c/a> across the landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Between the federal government and the state, we’ve decided that we need to treat a million acres in California a year, that’s what we’re working toward,” says Moore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Reducing biomass and fire fuels in a forest is complex and expensive work, much of it funded by the State of California. In his first budget, Governor Gavin Newsom proposed spending $305 million on forest management, including $200 million from a 5-year, $1 billion program approved by lawmakers to support fire prevention efforts.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1937918/droughts-over-but-the-dead-tree-toll-in-california-keeps-rising","authors":["11223"],"series":["science_1151"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40","science_98","science_3730"],"tags":["science_194","science_3370","science_3833","science_3830"],"featImg":"science_1937926","label":"source_science_1937918"},"science_1937679":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1937679","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1937679","score":null,"sort":[1549386023000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"proposed-scale-for-atmospheric-river-storms-runs-from-beneficial-to-hazardous","title":"West Coast Storms Get Some Respect With New Scale","publishDate":1549386023,"format":"standard","headTitle":"West Coast Storms Get Some Respect With New Scale | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>The storms known as “atmospheric rivers” are make-or-break events for California’s water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">Category-5 atmospheric river storms, designated as ‘primarily hazardous,’ come along every three to five years, says Marty Ralph of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>They can also be serious troublemakers, causing flooding and mudslides if they linger too long over the state. The recent National Climate Assessment included ARs as a type of extreme storm for the first time, and cites them as a specific risk associated with climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there hasn’t been a convenient way to classify these events according to their ferocity — until now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A team of atmospheric scientists have come up with a scale similar to those used for hurricanes, \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/oun/efscale\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tornadoes\u003c/a>, and earthquakes. The new scale, proposed Tuesday in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is similar to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">one used for hurricanes\u003c/a>: storms are classified as category 1 through 5, according to how much water they’re packing and how long they’re likely to stick around, wringing out that moisture as precipitation over land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">atmospheric rivers\u003c/a> are the most impactful storms for the West,” says Marty Ralph, who led the effort to develop the scale at \u003ca href=\"https://scripps.ucsd.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scripps Institution of Oceanography\u003c/a> in San Diego. “In fact, something like 90 percent of the flood damages in the western U.S. come from atmospheric river-type storms. And we need to distinguish the hazardous ones from the beneficial ones.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s how the new scale stacks up, with examples provided by Scripps:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>• \u003cstrong>AR Cat 1 (Weak):\u003c/strong> Primarily beneficial. For example, a Feb. 23, 2017 AR hit California, lasted 24 hours at the coast, and produced modest rainfall.\u003cbr>\n• \u003cstrong>AR Cat 2 (Moderate):\u003c/strong> Mostly beneficial, but also somewhat hazardous. An atmospheric river on Nov. 19-20, 2016 hit Northern California, lasted 42 hours at the coast, and produced several inches of rain that helped replenish low reservoirs after a drought.\u003cbr>\n• \u003cstrong>AR Cat 3 (Strong):\u003c/strong> Balance of beneficial and hazardous. An atmospheric river on Oct. 14-15, 2016 lasted 36 hours at the coast, produced 5-10 inches of rain that helped refill reservoirs after a drought, but also caused some rivers to rise to just below flood stage.\u003cbr>\n• \u003cstrong>AR Cat 4 (Extreme):\u003c/strong> Mostly hazardous, but also beneficial. For example, an atmospheric river on Jan. 8-9, 2017 that persisted for 36 hours produced up to 14 inches of rain in the Sierra Nevada and caused at least a dozen rivers to reach flood stage.\u003cbr>\n• \u003cstrong>AR Cat 5 (Exceptional):\u003c/strong> Primarily hazardous. For example, a Dec. 29, 1996 to Jan. 2, 1997 atmospheric river lasted over 100 hours at the Central California coast. The associated heavy precipitation and runoff caused more than $1 billion in damages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The scale takes into account the amount of water vapor in the air and the strength of low-altitude winds. Storms are downgraded if they’re fast-moving and less likely to “stall,” dumping huge volumes of rain and snow.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ralph says that going by his new scale, Category-5 ARs come through every three to five years. The last one was during the drenching winter of 2017. It probably tipped the scale of runoff conditions that led to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11690563/new-cost-for-oroville-dam-spillway-disaster-1-1-billion\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">catastrophic spillway collapse\u003c/a> at Oroville Dam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asked about official adoption of the AR scale, Ralph, who spent 21 years at the National Weather Service, says the concept is a murky one. He says some of his co-authors are government forecasters who say they’ll start using the scale, and a program is in the works to train broadcast meteorologists on it. But when — or whether — it will penetrate the popular lexicon to the extent that scales for hurricanes and tornadoes have is anyone’s guess.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The storms known as 'atmospheric rivers' can be highly beneficial to California's water supply. They can also be deadly. A new scale helps sort them out -- but will it catch on?","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704848858,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":12,"wordCount":653},"headData":{"title":"West Coast Storms Get Some Respect With New Scale | KQED","description":"The storms known as 'atmospheric rivers' can be highly beneficial to California's water supply. They can also be deadly. A new scale helps sort them out -- but will it catch on?","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"Climate","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1937679/proposed-scale-for-atmospheric-river-storms-runs-from-beneficial-to-hazardous","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The storms known as “atmospheric rivers” are make-or-break events for California’s water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">Category-5 atmospheric river storms, designated as ‘primarily hazardous,’ come along every three to five years, says Marty Ralph of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>They can also be serious troublemakers, causing flooding and mudslides if they linger too long over the state. The recent National Climate Assessment included ARs as a type of extreme storm for the first time, and cites them as a specific risk associated with climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there hasn’t been a convenient way to classify these events according to their ferocity — until now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A team of atmospheric scientists have come up with a scale similar to those used for hurricanes, \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/oun/efscale\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tornadoes\u003c/a>, and earthquakes. The new scale, proposed Tuesday in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is similar to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">one used for hurricanes\u003c/a>: storms are classified as category 1 through 5, according to how much water they’re packing and how long they’re likely to stick around, wringing out that moisture as precipitation over land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">atmospheric rivers\u003c/a> are the most impactful storms for the West,” says Marty Ralph, who led the effort to develop the scale at \u003ca href=\"https://scripps.ucsd.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scripps Institution of Oceanography\u003c/a> in San Diego. “In fact, something like 90 percent of the flood damages in the western U.S. come from atmospheric river-type storms. And we need to distinguish the hazardous ones from the beneficial ones.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s how the new scale stacks up, with examples provided by Scripps:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>• \u003cstrong>AR Cat 1 (Weak):\u003c/strong> Primarily beneficial. For example, a Feb. 23, 2017 AR hit California, lasted 24 hours at the coast, and produced modest rainfall.\u003cbr>\n• \u003cstrong>AR Cat 2 (Moderate):\u003c/strong> Mostly beneficial, but also somewhat hazardous. An atmospheric river on Nov. 19-20, 2016 hit Northern California, lasted 42 hours at the coast, and produced several inches of rain that helped replenish low reservoirs after a drought.\u003cbr>\n• \u003cstrong>AR Cat 3 (Strong):\u003c/strong> Balance of beneficial and hazardous. An atmospheric river on Oct. 14-15, 2016 lasted 36 hours at the coast, produced 5-10 inches of rain that helped refill reservoirs after a drought, but also caused some rivers to rise to just below flood stage.\u003cbr>\n• \u003cstrong>AR Cat 4 (Extreme):\u003c/strong> Mostly hazardous, but also beneficial. For example, an atmospheric river on Jan. 8-9, 2017 that persisted for 36 hours produced up to 14 inches of rain in the Sierra Nevada and caused at least a dozen rivers to reach flood stage.\u003cbr>\n• \u003cstrong>AR Cat 5 (Exceptional):\u003c/strong> Primarily hazardous. For example, a Dec. 29, 1996 to Jan. 2, 1997 atmospheric river lasted over 100 hours at the Central California coast. The associated heavy precipitation and runoff caused more than $1 billion in damages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The scale takes into account the amount of water vapor in the air and the strength of low-altitude winds. Storms are downgraded if they’re fast-moving and less likely to “stall,” dumping huge volumes of rain and snow.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ralph says that going by his new scale, Category-5 ARs come through every three to five years. The last one was during the drenching winter of 2017. It probably tipped the scale of runoff conditions that led to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11690563/new-cost-for-oroville-dam-spillway-disaster-1-1-billion\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">catastrophic spillway collapse\u003c/a> at Oroville Dam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asked about official adoption of the AR scale, Ralph, who spent 21 years at the National Weather Service, says the concept is a murky one. He says some of his co-authors are government forecasters who say they’ll start using the scale, and a program is in the works to train broadcast meteorologists on it. But when — or whether — it will penetrate the popular lexicon to the extent that scales for hurricanes and tornadoes have is anyone’s guess.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1937679/proposed-scale-for-atmospheric-river-storms-runs-from-beneficial-to-hazardous","authors":["221"],"series":["science_1151"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_98"],"tags":["science_3840","science_3370","science_1004","science_3830"],"featImg":"science_1937688","label":"source_science_1937679"},"science_1936797":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1936797","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1936797","score":null,"sort":[1548921691000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"why-we-cant-stop-talking-about-californias-sierra-snowpack","title":"Why We Can't Stop Talking About California’s Sierra Snowpack","publishDate":1548921691,"format":"image","headTitle":"Why We Can’t Stop Talking About California’s Sierra Snowpack | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>It’s not just skiers who have been whipsawed this season between fear of another dry winter and delight over the epic January snowfall in the Sierra Nevada.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Also paying close attention: water wonks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Why? Because melting Sierra snow provides somewhere between one-third and one-half of California’s \u003ca href=\"https://sierranevada.ca.gov/ca-primary-watershed/\">water supply\u003c/a>. What determines just how much water is derived from that snow is called the “snowpack.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As of this week, water stored in accumulated Sierra snows was running just about average for late January, and amounted to about 60 percent of the average on April 1, when the snowpack is typically at its peak for the year. “Average” is good news compared to where things stood less than a month ago, when the snowpack was only about two-thirds of the early-January average.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can really make up a lot of ground if we just have a couple of kind of heavy-hitting storms,” says Ben Hatchett, a snow watcher at the Desert Research Institute in Nevada. “And we sure did, and the people rejoiced — both at the ski resorts and hopefully at the water management and other agencies.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>So What’s the Snowpack?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The term snowpack refers to the amount of snow on the ground at a given time. When scientists measure snowpack, they’re typically concerned with the Snow Water Equivalent (also known as Snow Water Content). The Snow Water Equivalent is how much water, measured as depth in inches\u003cstrong>, \u003c/strong>would be produced by melting the snow.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">Melting Sierra snow provides somewhere between one-third and one-half of California’s water supply.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Thus, the Snow Water Equivalent, or SWE, takes into account a particular snow’s density, and it can vary widely: Colorado’s powder may be luxurious for skiers, but because it’s less dense it contains less water. Meanwhile, the snow that skiers call “\u003ca href=\"https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=sierra%20cement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sierra cement\u003c/a>” is much denser and thus full of water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The California Department of Water Resources and other organizations monitor the snowpack by conducting monthly \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Flood-Management/Flood-Data/Snow-Surveys\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">snow surveys\u003c/a>, which help inform projections of the state’s \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=WSI\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">water supply\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>In this video, KQED Science Editor Craig Miller ventures into the Sierra with veteran state surveyor \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1936327/californias-snow-guru-on-advances-in-snowpack-tech-and-the-future-of-california-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Frank Gerhke\u003c/a>, to see how traditional manual snow surveys are taken.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xojdkhJwZxY\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Timing: It’s Everything\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Merced hydrology professor Rogers Bales has been studying the Sierra Nevada snowpack for roughly three decades. He says the importance of the snowpack comes down to its functioning as storage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of California’s precipitation comes during the cold, wet season when the crops and forests don’t need as much water,” Bales explains. He notes that farmers use \u003ca href=\"https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">80 percent of the state’s water supply\u003c/a>. “[They] need a lot of water in the summer, when there’s very little or no precipitation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And that’s where the snow comes in. Its natural ability to store water is why the Sierra snowpack is often referred to as California’s “frozen reservoir.” As spring sets in, the snowpack begins to melt. Water that’s not absorbed into the ground, called“runoff,” trickles into mountain streams, which feed rivers and eventually aqueducts and reservoirs, where it can be stored for use throughout the dry season.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So timing is everything when it comes to the melting of the snowpack.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We want the runoff to be as late as possible, as close to when we need it as possible,” Bales says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Typically, that runoff begins in April, and in wet years, it can continue to flow through August, according to Bales. But in years with less precipitation, and therefore less accumulation of snow, the runoff can wind down as early as May. That leaves farmers with less reserves for those dry summer months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another concern, Bales says, is runoff that comes too early, triggered by warmer temperatures and rains over the mountains during winter months. Runoff occurring before April has the potential to cause flooding downstream. In February 2017, storms caused the equivalent of a full season’s runoff in the Feather River watershed to pour into Oroville Reservoir, in Butte County. Ultimately, attempts to release huge volumes of water through Oroville Dam caused both the main and emergency spillways to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/oroville-dam\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">collapse\u003c/a>, forcing evacuation orders for 100,000 people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1937431\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1937431\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-1020x574.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Before and after the snowstorms: satellite images of Sequoia on Jan. 4, 2019 and Jan 23, 2019, after the Sierra Nevada was pummeled with snow. \u003ccite>(Couresty \u003ca href=\"https://www.planet.com/\">Planet\u003c/a>)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Future: Warming Temperatures Mean a Smaller Snowpack\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The warming climate is already shrinking California’s “frozen reservoir.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Over time, temperatures in the mountains are rising, leading to more “rain-on-snow” events, when warming temperatures cause it to rain where there’s already snow on the ground. That accelerates the melt, which produces runoff that’s out of sync with California’s seasonal water needs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The accepted rule of thumb, according to Bales, is that for every two degrees Celsius (3.6 F) of increased surface temperature, the snowline will rise 1,000 feet in elevation, which makes for a kind of double-whammy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You’re getting rain instead of snow,” says Bales, “and [the snow is] melting earlier.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is not just speculation, according to Alan Rhoades, a climate modeler with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. He says that climate change has already begun to impact the Sierra snowpack.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have had roughly about a one-degree Celsius [1.3 F] increase over the last 50 years in the Western United States in terms of surface temperature.” Rhoades says. “And so the timing [of runoff] has been shifting earlier and earlier.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Research conducted by Rhoades and colleagues published in \u003ca href=\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080308\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/a> predicts that more than three-quarters of the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada could be gone by the close of the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of the \u003ca href=\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3606-0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">climate modeling scenarios\u003c/a> that I’ve seen predict about a 30 to 60 percent decline by mid-century in average snowpack in winter months,” Rhoades says. “By the end of the century that\u003ca href=\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080308\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> ramps up\u003c/a> to about 70 to 80 percent.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1936832\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1936832\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-800x389.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-800x389.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-160x78.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-768x373.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-1020x496.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image.png 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-1180x573.png 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-960x466.png 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-240x117.png 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-375x182.png 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-520x253.png 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Climate models predict drastic reductions of snowpack in the Western U.S. by the end of the Century. Image from 4th National Climate Assessment. \u003ccite>(Hari Krishnan and Michael Wehner/Lawrence Berkeley National Lab)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But, Rhoades says, this forecast is not set in stone. His projections are based on a “high-emissions scenario” that contributes to surface warming. In other words, it assumes minimal progress in reducing warming emissions like carbon dioxide and methane.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the flipside, if the world succeeds in making drastic cuts in climate emissions, the picture needn’t be so grim.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The 2018-19 Season\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About half California’s annual precipitation typically falls within three months, from December through February. After an eerily dry November — the first storms didn’t roll in until nearly Thanksgiving — the January storms have more than made up for lost time, with an \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">atmospheric river storm\u003c/a> dropping several feet of snow on the Sierra and pushing the statewide snowpack to above normal: 103 percent of average, as measured on Jan. 17, versus just 67 percent on Jan. 3.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The next snow survey is scheduled for Feb. 1. Despite the good season to date, water wonks and worriers will be keeping a close tab.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"If Californians seem obsessed with the volume of snow in the Sierra, there's a good reason.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704848869,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":34,"wordCount":1297},"headData":{"title":"Why We Can't Stop Talking About California’s Sierra Snowpack | KQED","description":"If Californians seem obsessed with the volume of snow in the Sierra, there's a good reason.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"Water","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1936797/why-we-cant-stop-talking-about-californias-sierra-snowpack","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>It’s not just skiers who have been whipsawed this season between fear of another dry winter and delight over the epic January snowfall in the Sierra Nevada.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Also paying close attention: water wonks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Why? Because melting Sierra snow provides somewhere between one-third and one-half of California’s \u003ca href=\"https://sierranevada.ca.gov/ca-primary-watershed/\">water supply\u003c/a>. What determines just how much water is derived from that snow is called the “snowpack.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As of this week, water stored in accumulated Sierra snows was running just about average for late January, and amounted to about 60 percent of the average on April 1, when the snowpack is typically at its peak for the year. “Average” is good news compared to where things stood less than a month ago, when the snowpack was only about two-thirds of the early-January average.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can really make up a lot of ground if we just have a couple of kind of heavy-hitting storms,” says Ben Hatchett, a snow watcher at the Desert Research Institute in Nevada. “And we sure did, and the people rejoiced — both at the ski resorts and hopefully at the water management and other agencies.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>So What’s the Snowpack?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The term snowpack refers to the amount of snow on the ground at a given time. When scientists measure snowpack, they’re typically concerned with the Snow Water Equivalent (also known as Snow Water Content). The Snow Water Equivalent is how much water, measured as depth in inches\u003cstrong>, \u003c/strong>would be produced by melting the snow.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">Melting Sierra snow provides somewhere between one-third and one-half of California’s water supply.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Thus, the Snow Water Equivalent, or SWE, takes into account a particular snow’s density, and it can vary widely: Colorado’s powder may be luxurious for skiers, but because it’s less dense it contains less water. Meanwhile, the snow that skiers call “\u003ca href=\"https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=sierra%20cement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sierra cement\u003c/a>” is much denser and thus full of water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The California Department of Water Resources and other organizations monitor the snowpack by conducting monthly \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Flood-Management/Flood-Data/Snow-Surveys\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">snow surveys\u003c/a>, which help inform projections of the state’s \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=WSI\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">water supply\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>In this video, KQED Science Editor Craig Miller ventures into the Sierra with veteran state surveyor \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1936327/californias-snow-guru-on-advances-in-snowpack-tech-and-the-future-of-california-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Frank Gerhke\u003c/a>, to see how traditional manual snow surveys are taken.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/xojdkhJwZxY'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/xojdkhJwZxY'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Timing: It’s Everything\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Merced hydrology professor Rogers Bales has been studying the Sierra Nevada snowpack for roughly three decades. He says the importance of the snowpack comes down to its functioning as storage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of California’s precipitation comes during the cold, wet season when the crops and forests don’t need as much water,” Bales explains. He notes that farmers use \u003ca href=\"https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">80 percent of the state’s water supply\u003c/a>. “[They] need a lot of water in the summer, when there’s very little or no precipitation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And that’s where the snow comes in. Its natural ability to store water is why the Sierra snowpack is often referred to as California’s “frozen reservoir.” As spring sets in, the snowpack begins to melt. Water that’s not absorbed into the ground, called“runoff,” trickles into mountain streams, which feed rivers and eventually aqueducts and reservoirs, where it can be stored for use throughout the dry season.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So timing is everything when it comes to the melting of the snowpack.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We want the runoff to be as late as possible, as close to when we need it as possible,” Bales says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Typically, that runoff begins in April, and in wet years, it can continue to flow through August, according to Bales. But in years with less precipitation, and therefore less accumulation of snow, the runoff can wind down as early as May. That leaves farmers with less reserves for those dry summer months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another concern, Bales says, is runoff that comes too early, triggered by warmer temperatures and rains over the mountains during winter months. Runoff occurring before April has the potential to cause flooding downstream. In February 2017, storms caused the equivalent of a full season’s runoff in the Feather River watershed to pour into Oroville Reservoir, in Butte County. Ultimately, attempts to release huge volumes of water through Oroville Dam caused both the main and emergency spillways to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/oroville-dam\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">collapse\u003c/a>, forcing evacuation orders for 100,000 people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1937431\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1937431\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-1020x574.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/01/Sequoia_190104_190123.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Before and after the snowstorms: satellite images of Sequoia on Jan. 4, 2019 and Jan 23, 2019, after the Sierra Nevada was pummeled with snow. \u003ccite>(Couresty \u003ca href=\"https://www.planet.com/\">Planet\u003c/a>)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Future: Warming Temperatures Mean a Smaller Snowpack\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The warming climate is already shrinking California’s “frozen reservoir.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Over time, temperatures in the mountains are rising, leading to more “rain-on-snow” events, when warming temperatures cause it to rain where there’s already snow on the ground. That accelerates the melt, which produces runoff that’s out of sync with California’s seasonal water needs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The accepted rule of thumb, according to Bales, is that for every two degrees Celsius (3.6 F) of increased surface temperature, the snowline will rise 1,000 feet in elevation, which makes for a kind of double-whammy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You’re getting rain instead of snow,” says Bales, “and [the snow is] melting earlier.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is not just speculation, according to Alan Rhoades, a climate modeler with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. He says that climate change has already begun to impact the Sierra snowpack.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have had roughly about a one-degree Celsius [1.3 F] increase over the last 50 years in the Western United States in terms of surface temperature.” Rhoades says. “And so the timing [of runoff] has been shifting earlier and earlier.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Research conducted by Rhoades and colleagues published in \u003ca href=\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080308\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/a> predicts that more than three-quarters of the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada could be gone by the close of the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Most of the \u003ca href=\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3606-0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">climate modeling scenarios\u003c/a> that I’ve seen predict about a 30 to 60 percent decline by mid-century in average snowpack in winter months,” Rhoades says. “By the end of the century that\u003ca href=\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080308\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> ramps up\u003c/a> to about 70 to 80 percent.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1936832\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1936832\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-800x389.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-800x389.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-160x78.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-768x373.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-1020x496.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image.png 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-1180x573.png 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-960x466.png 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-240x117.png 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-375x182.png 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/image-520x253.png 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Climate models predict drastic reductions of snowpack in the Western U.S. by the end of the Century. Image from 4th National Climate Assessment. \u003ccite>(Hari Krishnan and Michael Wehner/Lawrence Berkeley National Lab)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But, Rhoades says, this forecast is not set in stone. His projections are based on a “high-emissions scenario” that contributes to surface warming. In other words, it assumes minimal progress in reducing warming emissions like carbon dioxide and methane.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the flipside, if the world succeeds in making drastic cuts in climate emissions, the picture needn’t be so grim.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The 2018-19 Season\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About half California’s annual precipitation typically falls within three months, from December through February. After an eerily dry November — the first storms didn’t roll in until nearly Thanksgiving — the January storms have more than made up for lost time, with an \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">atmospheric river storm\u003c/a> dropping several feet of snow on the Sierra and pushing the statewide snowpack to above normal: 103 percent of average, as measured on Jan. 17, versus just 67 percent on Jan. 3.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The next snow survey is scheduled for Feb. 1. Despite the good season to date, water wonks and worriers will be keeping a close tab.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1936797/why-we-cant-stop-talking-about-californias-sierra-snowpack","authors":["11368"],"series":["science_1151"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_98"],"tags":["science_3180","science_3370","science_1004","science_109","science_1462"],"featImg":"science_1937429","label":"source_science_1936797"},"science_1937108":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1937108","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1937108","score":null,"sort":[1548662506000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"shasta-dam-project-sets-up-another-trump-california-showdown","title":"Shasta Dam Project Sets Up Another Trump-California Showdown","publishDate":1548662506,"format":"image","headTitle":"Shasta Dam Project Sets Up Another Trump-California Showdown | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Update May 14:\u003c/strong> A little more than three months after this story first appeared, the State of California and more than a half-dozen fishing and conservation groups sued to stop Westlands Water District from working to advance the Shasta Dam expansion project.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Original post:\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Trump administration is laying the groundwork to enlarge California’s biggest reservoir, the iconic \u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/projects/index.php?id=241\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shasta Dam\u003c/a>, north of Redding, by raising its height.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a saga that has \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/7191/is-raising-shasta-dam-the-best-bet-for-californias-water-supply\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dragged on for decades\u003c/a>, along with the controversy surrounding it. But the latest chapter is likely to set the stage for another showdown between California and the Trump administration.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We’re not talking. We’re explaining what we’re losing. And they’re not listening.’\u003ccite>Winnemem Wintu Chief Caleen Sisk\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Last fall, crews already had drilling rigs in place, taking core samples from the earthen banks around the 600-foot dam. That process was part of testing to see if its World War II-era foundation can support additional bulking up of the dam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Taller Dam Means a Bigger Reservoir\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is what the federal Bureau of Reclamation calls “\u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=63217\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">preliminary construction\u003c/a>” work. For now, that’s all they have funding for, but the Trump administration is keen to press on with a $1.3 billion project to add more than 18 feet to the top of the dam, which is already taller than the Washington Monument. That would increase the size of the reservoir, Shasta Lake, by 14 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/ShastaLocator_V05_190124.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-1937206\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/ShastaLocator_V05_190124.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"1335\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/ShastaLocator_V05_190124.jpeg 750w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/ShastaLocator_V05_190124-160x285.jpeg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/ShastaLocator_V05_190124-674x1200.jpeg 674w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\">\u003c/a>“We’re extremely confident that there’s a lot of momentum behind this right now,” says Don Bader, area manager for the reclamation bureau, which operates the dam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But that momentum is coming from Washington, not Sacramento.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The new administration came in and they’re looking to add storage in California,” Bader explains, “and this was the one project that was ready to go, so that’s why it’s got most of the attention right now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wild & Scenic\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The project has also caught the attention of California officials, who say it violates the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.watereducation.org/aquapedia/california-wild-and-scenic-rivers-act\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wild & Scenic Rivers Act\u003c/a>, which protects one of the three major rivers that flow into Shasta Reservoir.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The California Legislature protected the \u003ca href=\"https://www.calwild.org/portfolio/fact-sheet-mccloud-river/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">McCloud River\u003c/a> from any construction that would expand the reservoir,” says Ron Stork, of the advocacy group \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/FriendsOfTheRiverFoundation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Friends of the River\u003c/a>. “It’s been illegal to expand this reservoir since 1989.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1937209\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1950px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1937209 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: fishing on the McCloud River\" width=\"1950\" height=\"1463\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172.jpg 1950w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1950px) 100vw, 1950px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The McCloud River is a legendary trout-fishing stream and sacred grounds for the Winnemem Wintu tribe. It’s protected under state law. \u003ccite>(Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Environmentalists say that the $1.3 billion dollars could be better spent on more creative ways to conserve water, such as recycling, stormwater capture, and storing more water in underground aquifers. But President Trump is \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1171992/trumps-pledge-to-open-up-the-water-for-valley-farms-easier-said-than-done\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">on the record\u003c/a> promising Central Valley farmers more water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Any bean-counter would say this is crazy,” says Stork. “But this is a political dam.”\u003cb>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The additional 630, 000 acre-feet of capacity would be like taking \u003ca href=\"http://bawsca.org/water/supply/hetchhetchy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hetch Hetchy Reservoir\u003c/a> — the Sierra lake that supplies San Francisco — and dumping it into Shasta … twice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But nature is not likely to fill that order every year. Stork says the project would likely yield only about 50,000 acre-feet of water on average, annually. That’s a drop in the bucket relative to California’s water budget.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Sacred Grounds\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In December, Stork joined about 200 others at an “open house” in Redding, designed to inform stakeholders about the project. One of them was Caleen Sisk, chief of the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/8855/raising-shasta-dam-and-the-flooding-of-a-cathedral\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Winnemem Wintu\u003c/a> tribe, whose sacred grounds run along the McCloud River.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1937204\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1937204\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: Caleen Sisk at microphone\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">At a public meeting in Redding, Winnemem Wintu Chief Caleen Sisk appeals to stakeholders to oppose the expansion of Lake Shasta. \u003ccite>(Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>She says the tribe already lost many of its sacred sites when the original reservoir was filled, back in the 1940s. The expansion would raise the lake level by about another 20 feet, pushing it farther up the McCloud River.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For us, we have to be connected to those sacred places,” says Sisk. “And we’ve already lost 26 miles in the building of Shasta Dam — 26 miles have been given up.”\u003cb>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sisk’s people still use numerous sites along the lower river for rituals, including rites of passage for young Wintu coming of age.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sisk says nearly all of the tribe’s remaining sites would be put permanently underwater with the reservoir’s expansion. Reclamation says it’s “talking” with the Winnemem Wintu, but Sisk has a different take.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re not talking,” she says, “we’re explaining what we’re losing. And they’re not listening.”\u003cb>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Powerful Player\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sisk was distressed to see the meeting in Redding being run by \u003ca href=\"https://wwd.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Westlands Water District\u003c/a>, a politically powerful irrigation district based more than 300 miles away, in Fresno, which could be the chief beneficiary of any additional water from the project. It has also raised eyebrows that David Bernhardt, Trump’s acting head of the Interior Department, which includes Reclamation, is a former lobbyist for Westlands.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Westlands was hosting the Redding meeting because it’s preparing an environmental impact report for the project. Reclamation needs an investment “partner” to close the deal, and though there’s been no formal announcement, many assume that Westlands will put up hundreds of millions of dollars toward the project, in exchange for rights to the water it yields.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That they would have the sheer boldness to do an EIR for an illegal project is still — it’s stunning to me,” says Stork.\u003cb>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State officials have reacted with similar dismay. This month, the state’s Water Resources Control Board sent Westlands a letter confirming that what they’re proposing is illegal under state law, and that as a state agency, Westlands “participation is prohibited.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A consulting firm conducted the meeting on Westlands’ behalf, and while there was one Westlands official in attendance, consultants said he was “not authorized to talk to the media.” Several subsequent calls and emails to Westlands for this story went unanswered.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, the Bureau of Reclamation has made it clear that it intends to press on.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re proceeding along the federal route here,” says Bader. “If California does not participate in this process, we’ll move along forward by getting the federal approval.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some might interpret that as saying they’re going through with this regardless of what California thinks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s one way to say it,” says Bader.\u003cb>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From Bader’s standpoint, there’s a lot at stake. Shasta’s the keystone in the giant \u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/mp/cvp/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Central Valley Project\u003c/a>, which sends water to farms and cities in 29 California counties. But dams have consequences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Insult to Injury\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every time you put up a dam on the Sacramento River, it’s going to be bad for wildlife.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>John McManus heads the Golden Gate Salmon Association, an advocate for protecting the threatened fish … and the industries they support.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“And right now,” he says, “what they’re talking about is adding more insult to injury by raising that dam, impounding more water behind it, and further impairing salmon runs downstream.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1937205\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1937205\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: downstream view from Shasta Dam\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Federal dam operators say that a deeper reservoir would allow them to send more cold water downstream, to support salmon in the Sacramento River. \u003ccite>(Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Reclamation says a deeper water pool behind the dam will allow them to put more cold water downstream to support the fish. In its project description, the bureau claims it will:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>“…improve water supply reliability for agricultural, municipal and industrial, and environmental uses; reduce flood damage; and improve water temperatures and water quality in the Sacramento River below the dam for anadromous fish survival.”\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>But in 2014, the federal government’s own Fish & Wildlife Service recommended against the project, concluding that it would fail to protect endangered salmon in the Sacramento River and its tributaries. That report was later “rescinded” for further review, and has not resurfaced officially.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Reclamation officials hope to award a construction contract by the end of next year, and \u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/mp/ncao/docs/sdrep-timeline.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">complete the project\u003c/a> by 2024.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McManus thinks the courts will ultimately rule against the project — if it gets that far. With Democrats now in control of the House, congressional funding to elevate Shasta Dam might be another stream that gets cut off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“My view is they will ultimately be stopped,” offers McManus, “but I could be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The Trump administration is laying the groundwork to enlarge California’s biggest reservoir. But the project runs afoul of both state law and the Winnemem Wintu tribe, which says the expansion would end up submerging its sacred sites.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927180,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":47,"wordCount":1508},"headData":{"title":"Shasta Dam Project Sets Up Another Trump-California Showdown | KQED","description":"The Trump administration is laying the groundwork to enlarge California’s biggest reservoir. But the project runs afoul of both state law and the Winnemem Wintu tribe, which says the expansion would end up submerging its sacred sites.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"Engineering","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2019/01/MillerShastaDam.mp3","sticky":false,"audioTrackLength":411,"path":"/science/1937108/shasta-dam-project-sets-up-another-trump-california-showdown","audioDuration":418000,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Update May 14:\u003c/strong> A little more than three months after this story first appeared, the State of California and more than a half-dozen fishing and conservation groups sued to stop Westlands Water District from working to advance the Shasta Dam expansion project.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Original post:\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Trump administration is laying the groundwork to enlarge California’s biggest reservoir, the iconic \u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/projects/index.php?id=241\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shasta Dam\u003c/a>, north of Redding, by raising its height.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a saga that has \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/7191/is-raising-shasta-dam-the-best-bet-for-californias-water-supply\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dragged on for decades\u003c/a>, along with the controversy surrounding it. But the latest chapter is likely to set the stage for another showdown between California and the Trump administration.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We’re not talking. We’re explaining what we’re losing. And they’re not listening.’\u003ccite>Winnemem Wintu Chief Caleen Sisk\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Last fall, crews already had drilling rigs in place, taking core samples from the earthen banks around the 600-foot dam. That process was part of testing to see if its World War II-era foundation can support additional bulking up of the dam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Taller Dam Means a Bigger Reservoir\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is what the federal Bureau of Reclamation calls “\u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=63217\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">preliminary construction\u003c/a>” work. For now, that’s all they have funding for, but the Trump administration is keen to press on with a $1.3 billion project to add more than 18 feet to the top of the dam, which is already taller than the Washington Monument. That would increase the size of the reservoir, Shasta Lake, by 14 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/ShastaLocator_V05_190124.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-1937206\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/ShastaLocator_V05_190124.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"1335\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/ShastaLocator_V05_190124.jpeg 750w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/ShastaLocator_V05_190124-160x285.jpeg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/ShastaLocator_V05_190124-674x1200.jpeg 674w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\">\u003c/a>“We’re extremely confident that there’s a lot of momentum behind this right now,” says Don Bader, area manager for the reclamation bureau, which operates the dam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But that momentum is coming from Washington, not Sacramento.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The new administration came in and they’re looking to add storage in California,” Bader explains, “and this was the one project that was ready to go, so that’s why it’s got most of the attention right now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wild & Scenic\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The project has also caught the attention of California officials, who say it violates the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.watereducation.org/aquapedia/california-wild-and-scenic-rivers-act\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wild & Scenic Rivers Act\u003c/a>, which protects one of the three major rivers that flow into Shasta Reservoir.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The California Legislature protected the \u003ca href=\"https://www.calwild.org/portfolio/fact-sheet-mccloud-river/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">McCloud River\u003c/a> from any construction that would expand the reservoir,” says Ron Stork, of the advocacy group \u003ca href=\"https://www.facebook.com/FriendsOfTheRiverFoundation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Friends of the River\u003c/a>. “It’s been illegal to expand this reservoir since 1989.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1937209\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1950px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1937209 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: fishing on the McCloud River\" width=\"1950\" height=\"1463\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172.jpg 1950w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/IMG_4172-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1950px) 100vw, 1950px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The McCloud River is a legendary trout-fishing stream and sacred grounds for the Winnemem Wintu tribe. It’s protected under state law. \u003ccite>(Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Environmentalists say that the $1.3 billion dollars could be better spent on more creative ways to conserve water, such as recycling, stormwater capture, and storing more water in underground aquifers. But President Trump is \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1171992/trumps-pledge-to-open-up-the-water-for-valley-farms-easier-said-than-done\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">on the record\u003c/a> promising Central Valley farmers more water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Any bean-counter would say this is crazy,” says Stork. “But this is a political dam.”\u003cb>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The additional 630, 000 acre-feet of capacity would be like taking \u003ca href=\"http://bawsca.org/water/supply/hetchhetchy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hetch Hetchy Reservoir\u003c/a> — the Sierra lake that supplies San Francisco — and dumping it into Shasta … twice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But nature is not likely to fill that order every year. Stork says the project would likely yield only about 50,000 acre-feet of water on average, annually. That’s a drop in the bucket relative to California’s water budget.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Sacred Grounds\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In December, Stork joined about 200 others at an “open house” in Redding, designed to inform stakeholders about the project. One of them was Caleen Sisk, chief of the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/8855/raising-shasta-dam-and-the-flooding-of-a-cathedral\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Winnemem Wintu\u003c/a> tribe, whose sacred grounds run along the McCloud River.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1937204\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1937204\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: Caleen Sisk at microphone\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Speaker01-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">At a public meeting in Redding, Winnemem Wintu Chief Caleen Sisk appeals to stakeholders to oppose the expansion of Lake Shasta. \u003ccite>(Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>She says the tribe already lost many of its sacred sites when the original reservoir was filled, back in the 1940s. The expansion would raise the lake level by about another 20 feet, pushing it farther up the McCloud River.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For us, we have to be connected to those sacred places,” says Sisk. “And we’ve already lost 26 miles in the building of Shasta Dam — 26 miles have been given up.”\u003cb>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sisk’s people still use numerous sites along the lower river for rituals, including rites of passage for young Wintu coming of age.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sisk says nearly all of the tribe’s remaining sites would be put permanently underwater with the reservoir’s expansion. Reclamation says it’s “talking” with the Winnemem Wintu, but Sisk has a different take.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re not talking,” she says, “we’re explaining what we’re losing. And they’re not listening.”\u003cb>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Powerful Player\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sisk was distressed to see the meeting in Redding being run by \u003ca href=\"https://wwd.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Westlands Water District\u003c/a>, a politically powerful irrigation district based more than 300 miles away, in Fresno, which could be the chief beneficiary of any additional water from the project. It has also raised eyebrows that David Bernhardt, Trump’s acting head of the Interior Department, which includes Reclamation, is a former lobbyist for Westlands.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Westlands was hosting the Redding meeting because it’s preparing an environmental impact report for the project. Reclamation needs an investment “partner” to close the deal, and though there’s been no formal announcement, many assume that Westlands will put up hundreds of millions of dollars toward the project, in exchange for rights to the water it yields.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That they would have the sheer boldness to do an EIR for an illegal project is still — it’s stunning to me,” says Stork.\u003cb>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State officials have reacted with similar dismay. This month, the state’s Water Resources Control Board sent Westlands a letter confirming that what they’re proposing is illegal under state law, and that as a state agency, Westlands “participation is prohibited.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A consulting firm conducted the meeting on Westlands’ behalf, and while there was one Westlands official in attendance, consultants said he was “not authorized to talk to the media.” Several subsequent calls and emails to Westlands for this story went unanswered.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, the Bureau of Reclamation has made it clear that it intends to press on.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re proceeding along the federal route here,” says Bader. “If California does not participate in this process, we’ll move along forward by getting the federal approval.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some might interpret that as saying they’re going through with this regardless of what California thinks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s one way to say it,” says Bader.\u003cb>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From Bader’s standpoint, there’s a lot at stake. Shasta’s the keystone in the giant \u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/mp/cvp/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Central Valley Project\u003c/a>, which sends water to farms and cities in 29 California counties. But dams have consequences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Insult to Injury\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every time you put up a dam on the Sacramento River, it’s going to be bad for wildlife.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>John McManus heads the Golden Gate Salmon Association, an advocate for protecting the threatened fish … and the industries they support.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“And right now,” he says, “what they’re talking about is adding more insult to injury by raising that dam, impounding more water behind it, and further impairing salmon runs downstream.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1937205\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1937205\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: downstream view from Shasta Dam\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Shasta02-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Federal dam operators say that a deeper reservoir would allow them to send more cold water downstream, to support salmon in the Sacramento River. \u003ccite>(Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Reclamation says a deeper water pool behind the dam will allow them to put more cold water downstream to support the fish. In its project description, the bureau claims it will:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>“…improve water supply reliability for agricultural, municipal and industrial, and environmental uses; reduce flood damage; and improve water temperatures and water quality in the Sacramento River below the dam for anadromous fish survival.”\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>But in 2014, the federal government’s own Fish & Wildlife Service recommended against the project, concluding that it would fail to protect endangered salmon in the Sacramento River and its tributaries. That report was later “rescinded” for further review, and has not resurfaced officially.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Reclamation officials hope to award a construction contract by the end of next year, and \u003ca href=\"https://www.usbr.gov/mp/ncao/docs/sdrep-timeline.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">complete the project\u003c/a> by 2024.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McManus thinks the courts will ultimately rule against the project — if it gets that far. With Democrats now in control of the House, congressional funding to elevate Shasta Dam might be another stream that gets cut off.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“My view is they will ultimately be stopped,” offers McManus, “but I could be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1937108/shasta-dam-project-sets-up-another-trump-california-showdown","authors":["221"],"series":["science_1151"],"categories":["science_89","science_35","science_40","science_3423","science_98"],"tags":["science_3370","science_3833","science_463","science_3830"],"featImg":"science_1937114","label":"source_science_1937108"},"science_1936327":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1936327","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1936327","score":null,"sort":[1546848077000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"californias-snow-guru-on-advances-in-snowpack-tech-and-the-future-of-california-water","title":"California's Indomitable Snowman Talks Snowpack Tech in a Changing Climate","publishDate":1546848077,"format":"audio","headTitle":"California’s Indomitable Snowman Talks Snowpack Tech in a Changing Climate | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Frank Gehrke says that back in Missouri, where he was raised, snow was “something to be plowed.” He would soon take a very different view.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">The \u003ca href=\"https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/airborne-snow-observatory-aso/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Airborne Snow Observatory\u003c/a> was a game-changer, says Frank Gehrke, California’s former chief snow surveyor.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>In December, Gehrke retired as chief snow surveyor for the California Department of Water Resources. He spent much of his 31 years with the department on skis and snowshoes, in remote corners of the Sierra Nevada, \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Flood-Management/Flood-Data/Snow-Surveys\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">measuring the “frozen reservoir”\u003c/a> that ultimately provides about a third of California’s water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He was also the guy flanking Gov. Jerry Brown in late March of 2015, when there was no snow to measure and Brown announced \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/28837/record-low-sierra-snowpack-will-drive-home-drought-impacts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sweeping drought measures\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Shortly after his retirement, I met Gehrke near his home on the American River, for some reflections. The following is an edited transcript.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What’s it like not being involved in the snow surveys after all this time?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a little bittersweet. But by the same token it’s a relief not to have those worries about what could go wrong.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What was it like to see the monthly surveys become a media event?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When I first came to work for the department in 1987, there would be an occasional call from the media about when we were doing the survey. And then as things evolved in that first five-year drought, I realized that when the media brought their own snowshoes they were serious.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1936343\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1936343\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: 1958 snow survey\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-960x540.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-240x135.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-375x211.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-520x293.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Surveyors using a Mt. Rose snow gauge to measure water content in 1958. Manual surveys are still done the same way. \u003ccite>(Calif. Dept. of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>It seems like the technology has really changed since you started in 1987.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Well it has, and the real game-changer is what’s known as the \u003ca href=\"https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/airborne-snow-observatory-aso/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Airborne Snow Observatory\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\n\u003ch3>A Disappointing Start\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure>\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/KJ_snow_survey_0463_01_03_19.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The first manual snow survey of the winter, conducted on Jan. 3, showed water content of the Sierra snowpack at just 67 percent of the long-term average, but that still beats last year at this time, when it was 31 percent of normal. Keep in mind the snowpack water content can change dramatically as the winter months progress.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>These are guys from NASA basically flying over the mountains in a plane, using light beams to measure the snow?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Absolutely. We started that. And that truly has been the huge change in all of the history of snow surveys. Being able to look at this basin-wide snow-water equivalent truly is phenomenal. And because we now can very accurately determine the snow in a basin, then we can start to look at some of the other factors that go into runoff prediction and examine those with the idea that the snow is now a known quantity. We’re not guessing or trying to estimate. We know how much snow is up there.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>How important are these precision measurements?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Well, they’re hugely important, especially as things are changing. Predictions are for less snow, more rain, so being able to accurately determine where the snow is and how much there is makes a big difference in terms of your modeling for those short-term flood events, and also for more long-term water-supply forecasting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And it’s also very important, for example down in the Tuolumne River watershed, where our highest ground-based measurement is at about 10,000 feet. Fully a third of the watershed is above that measurement point. So if you get into a spring situation where the snow has basically melted up to 10,000 feet, you’re flying blind — or you were prior to the Airborne Snow Observatory. And the ability to look at that, especially that late-spring runoff, can be extremely important for determining reservoir levels and managing that reservoir capacity for the benefit of both flood control as well as water supply and hydroelectric and a number of other benefits that you can more accurately monitor the reservoir and make intelligent decisions about releases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/J9tn1/5/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003cbr>\n \u003cstrong>You’ve been doing this over the past 30 years. What changes have you seen in the snowpack?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Actually not very much. We talk about the seasonal or inter-annual variability.[How California whipsaws between wet and dry years]. And those swings can mask perhaps a longer-term signal that’s in there. The \u003ca href=\"https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/factpub/sect_4a.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">snow-course\u003c/a> record, people look at it and they tweak it and some people see a signal, others don’t.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>(Editor’s note: Recent scientific \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1923700/impact-of-a-warming-climate-on-the-sierra-nevada-and-californias-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">studies have projected\u003c/a> that the Sierra snowpack could shrink by nearly 80 percent by 2100, and timing of the runoff could change dramatically.)\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Do you worry at all about California’s water future?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even now, there is a lot of water in California. But it doesn’t come with the timing and the location of where we as a civilization really want it. That’s where I think technology can do a great deal. We probably aren’t going to be moving more water than we are right now; it’s unlikely we’ll be building any giant new pipelines or something. But what we’ll be able to do is identify where the water is, when it occurs, and improve that accuracy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here in 2019, we don’t know what water the rest of the year is going to bring. And if we could improve that, even a little bit, it would go a long way toward being able to manage what we have right now in terms of physical infrastructure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>How do they do the manual snow surveys? Find out in this video from 2010, when I trailed Gehrke out to Tamarack Flat in El Dorado County.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xojdkhJwZxY&w=560&h=315]\u003cstrong>Speaking of technology, when does skiing up into a pass and shoving aluminum tubes into the snow to weigh the water content become obsolete?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I can see the number of surveys being reduced. But I think, at least for the foreseeable future, they’re still what we use to verify everything else. Even though we have very advanced models, you still need that ground truth to ensure that something hasn’t gone haywire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Frank Gehrke wasn't the only one to plod into mountain meadows to measure the snowpack, but over 31 years he became the face and voice of California's monthly snow surveys.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927222,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/J9tn1/5/"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":27,"wordCount":1070},"headData":{"title":"California's Indomitable Snowman Talks Snowpack Tech in a Changing Climate | KQED","description":"Frank Gehrke wasn't the only one to plod into mountain meadows to measure the snowpack, but over 31 years he became the face and voice of California's monthly snow surveys.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"Water","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2019/01/MillerGehrkeRetire.mp3","sticky":false,"audioTrackLength":284,"path":"/science/1936327/californias-snow-guru-on-advances-in-snowpack-tech-and-the-future-of-california-water","parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Frank Gehrke says that back in Missouri, where he was raised, snow was “something to be plowed.” He would soon take a very different view.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">The \u003ca href=\"https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/airborne-snow-observatory-aso/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Airborne Snow Observatory\u003c/a> was a game-changer, says Frank Gehrke, California’s former chief snow surveyor.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>In December, Gehrke retired as chief snow surveyor for the California Department of Water Resources. He spent much of his 31 years with the department on skis and snowshoes, in remote corners of the Sierra Nevada, \u003ca href=\"https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Flood-Management/Flood-Data/Snow-Surveys\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">measuring the “frozen reservoir”\u003c/a> that ultimately provides about a third of California’s water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He was also the guy flanking Gov. Jerry Brown in late March of 2015, when there was no snow to measure and Brown announced \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/28837/record-low-sierra-snowpack-will-drive-home-drought-impacts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sweeping drought measures\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Shortly after his retirement, I met Gehrke near his home on the American River, for some reflections. The following is an edited transcript.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What’s it like not being involved in the snow surveys after all this time?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a little bittersweet. But by the same token it’s a relief not to have those worries about what could go wrong.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What was it like to see the monthly surveys become a media event?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When I first came to work for the department in 1987, there would be an occasional call from the media about when we were doing the survey. And then as things evolved in that first five-year drought, I realized that when the media brought their own snowshoes they were serious.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1936343\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1936343\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: 1958 snow survey\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-960x540.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-240x135.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-375x211.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/Snow_Sur_215-6_11_14_1958-520x293.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Surveyors using a Mt. Rose snow gauge to measure water content in 1958. Manual surveys are still done the same way. \u003ccite>(Calif. Dept. of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>It seems like the technology has really changed since you started in 1987.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Well it has, and the real game-changer is what’s known as the \u003ca href=\"https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/airborne-snow-observatory-aso/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Airborne Snow Observatory\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\n\u003ch3>A Disappointing Start\u003c/h3>\n\u003cfigure>\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/01/KJ_snow_survey_0463_01_03_19.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The first manual snow survey of the winter, conducted on Jan. 3, showed water content of the Sierra snowpack at just 67 percent of the long-term average, but that still beats last year at this time, when it was 31 percent of normal. Keep in mind the snowpack water content can change dramatically as the winter months progress.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>These are guys from NASA basically flying over the mountains in a plane, using light beams to measure the snow?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Absolutely. We started that. And that truly has been the huge change in all of the history of snow surveys. Being able to look at this basin-wide snow-water equivalent truly is phenomenal. And because we now can very accurately determine the snow in a basin, then we can start to look at some of the other factors that go into runoff prediction and examine those with the idea that the snow is now a known quantity. We’re not guessing or trying to estimate. We know how much snow is up there.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>How important are these precision measurements?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Well, they’re hugely important, especially as things are changing. Predictions are for less snow, more rain, so being able to accurately determine where the snow is and how much there is makes a big difference in terms of your modeling for those short-term flood events, and also for more long-term water-supply forecasting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And it’s also very important, for example down in the Tuolumne River watershed, where our highest ground-based measurement is at about 10,000 feet. Fully a third of the watershed is above that measurement point. So if you get into a spring situation where the snow has basically melted up to 10,000 feet, you’re flying blind — or you were prior to the Airborne Snow Observatory. And the ability to look at that, especially that late-spring runoff, can be extremely important for determining reservoir levels and managing that reservoir capacity for the benefit of both flood control as well as water supply and hydroelectric and a number of other benefits that you can more accurately monitor the reservoir and make intelligent decisions about releases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/J9tn1/5/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003cbr>\n \u003cstrong>You’ve been doing this over the past 30 years. What changes have you seen in the snowpack?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Actually not very much. We talk about the seasonal or inter-annual variability.[How California whipsaws between wet and dry years]. And those swings can mask perhaps a longer-term signal that’s in there. The \u003ca href=\"https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/factpub/sect_4a.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">snow-course\u003c/a> record, people look at it and they tweak it and some people see a signal, others don’t.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>(Editor’s note: Recent scientific \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1923700/impact-of-a-warming-climate-on-the-sierra-nevada-and-californias-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">studies have projected\u003c/a> that the Sierra snowpack could shrink by nearly 80 percent by 2100, and timing of the runoff could change dramatically.)\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Do you worry at all about California’s water future?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even now, there is a lot of water in California. But it doesn’t come with the timing and the location of where we as a civilization really want it. That’s where I think technology can do a great deal. We probably aren’t going to be moving more water than we are right now; it’s unlikely we’ll be building any giant new pipelines or something. But what we’ll be able to do is identify where the water is, when it occurs, and improve that accuracy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here in 2019, we don’t know what water the rest of the year is going to bring. And if we could improve that, even a little bit, it would go a long way toward being able to manage what we have right now in terms of physical infrastructure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>How do they do the manual snow surveys? Find out in this video from 2010, when I trailed Gehrke out to Tamarack Flat in El Dorado County.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/xojdkhJwZxY'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/xojdkhJwZxY'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Speaking of technology, when does skiing up into a pass and shoving aluminum tubes into the snow to weigh the water content become obsolete?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I can see the number of surveys being reduced. But I think, at least for the foreseeable future, they’re still what we use to verify everything else. Even though we have very advanced models, you still need that ground truth to ensure that something hasn’t gone haywire.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1936327/californias-snow-guru-on-advances-in-snowpack-tech-and-the-future-of-california-water","authors":["221"],"series":["science_1151"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_98"],"tags":["science_3370","science_3833","science_109","science_1462","science_1243","science_3830"],"featImg":"science_1936332","label":"source_science_1936327"},"science_1922847":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1922847","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1922847","score":null,"sort":[1524495646000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"wilder-weather-swings-in-californias-future-could-spell-disaster","title":"Wilder Weather Swings in California's Future Could Spell Disaster","publishDate":1524495646,"format":"audio","headTitle":"Wilder Weather Swings in California’s Future Could Spell Disaster | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>If you think California has seen some wild weather recently, fasten your seat belt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An eye-popping \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0140-y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new study\u003c/a> from climate scientists at UCLA projects big increases in the frequency of extreme events at both ends of the wet-dry spectrum: big flood-inducing storms as well as droughts.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘I can definitely attest to being unnerved by some of our findings.’\u003ccite>Daniel Swain, UCLA\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“I can definitely attest to being unnerved by some of our findings,” says the normally restrained Daniel Swain, lead author on the study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The team looked at specific extreme events in California’s past and used a suite of climate models to project their frequency in the future. Those events included last year’s “whiplash” winter that drenched the state after a five-year drought, as well as the state’s driest year and the epic \u003ca href=\"https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">floods of 1861-62\u003c/a>. That was the winter Gov. Leland Stanford attended his own inauguration by rowboat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It was kind of a biblical flood,” says co-author Alex Hall, who directs the \u003ca href=\"https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/climate/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Center for Climate Science\u003c/a> at UCLA. “It was 40 days straight, practically, of rain.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922931\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 707px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1922931 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2.jpg\" alt=\"Map and graphs\" width=\"707\" height=\"1558\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2.jpg 707w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2-160x353.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2-545x1200.jpg 545w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2-240x529.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2-375x826.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2-520x1146.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 707px) 100vw, 707px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graphs show projected rising frequency of a storm sequence similar to that which caused the Great Flood of 1862. \u003ccite>(Swain, et al., Nature Climate Change)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Hall and Swain estimate that a similar event today could trigger a $1 trillion catastrophe. And they say it will happen again, perhaps sooner than scientists had previously reckoned.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/rzgxCYEM4NtELZKUVsCXq?domain=nature.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study, published today\u003c/a> in the journal, \u003cem>Nature Climate Change\u003c/em>, estimates that the Great Flood of 1862 was a once-in-200 year event at the time that it happened. Now, their projections indicate we can expect an event on that scale about every 50 years, and that it’s “more likely than not” we’ll see a recurrence sometime between now and 2060.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t think that we are prepared for that type of event,” says Hall, recalling the February 2017 storms that triggered widespread flooding throughout the state and mass evacuations along the Feather River after the nearly catastrophic failure of the spillways at Oroville Dam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers looked at last year’s record-setting precipitation and projected that kind of whiplash winter will also be a more frequent feature of California’s hydrologic cycle, approximately doubling in frequency from its prior 25-year interval, a trend they say will be “noticeable” by 2035.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We know that these events happen,” says Hall. “They’re a natural feature of the climate system here in California — but, we expect them to become much more frequent in the future because of climate change.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘It’s definitely very sobering and it’s something that we have to plan for.’\u003ccite>Alex Hall, UCLA\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>The same goes for droughts, according to the UCLA study, which also looked at the state’s driest winter on record, 1976-77. Previously about a 100-year event, a single dry year of that severity would be expected to happen every 50 years, with greater frequency in Southern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s definitely very sobering and it’s something that we have to plan for,” says Hall, who admits to having a “pearl-clutch moment” when he first saw the data from his study. His preview of the then-unpublished work generated by far the most buzz at a recent symposium on extreme precipitation at \u003cspan class=\"st\">Scripps Institution of Oceanography \u003c/span>in La Jolla. But he says there may be a (somewhat tarnished) silver lining behind all of the dark clouds produced by his work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922933\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 707px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1922933 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3.jpg\" alt=\"Map and graphs\" width=\"707\" height=\"1558\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3.jpg 707w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3-160x353.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3-545x1200.jpg 545w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3-240x529.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3-375x826.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3-520x1146.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 707px) 100vw, 707px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graphs show projected rising frequency of single drought years equivalent to California’s driest on record, 1976-77. \u003ccite>(Swain, et al., Nature Climate Change)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“If the planet comes together and eventually reduces or eliminated greenhouse gas emissions,” suggests Hall, “then we can avert some — not all — of the risk of these types of events occurring.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s important to point out that the team used a pessimistic “business-as-usual” projection of future greenhouse gas emissions in their calculations — in other words, they assumed that emissions are not significantly reduced in years to come. Swain says they chose this over a more optimistic mid-range assumption partly because, it’s “still (unfortunately) the closest to the actual observed emissions trajectory,” and that their scenario would, “likely apply even under very optimistic future emissions trajectories, but the magnitude of the changes in frequency would be substantially less on a lower emissions path.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other findings from the study were arresting as well. Among other things, the team projects a “sharpening” of California’s precipitation calendar, with more falling during the core winter months (November-February) and less during the spring and fall shoulder seasons. That has implications for runoff and water supply that will force a rethinking by water managers around the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think in general climate change is forcing us to confront the fact that we are not living in harmony with our environment,” says Hall.\u003cbr>\n“All climate change is doing is forcing us to confront that fact sooner, and this is an example of that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1922981\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-1020x695.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"436\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-1020x695.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-160x109.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-800x545.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-768x523.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-960x654.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-240x164.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-375x256.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-520x354.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"'Very sobering' study projects more extremes in wet and dry winters -- and the likelihood of a trillion-dollar disaster.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927973,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":19,"wordCount":905},"headData":{"title":"Wilder Weather Swings in California's Future Could Spell Disaster | KQED","description":"'Very sobering' study projects more extremes in wet and dry winters -- and the likelihood of a trillion-dollar disaster.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"Climate","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2018/04/2waySwainExtremeWeather.mp3 ","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1922847/wilder-weather-swings-in-californias-future-could-spell-disaster","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>If you think California has seen some wild weather recently, fasten your seat belt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An eye-popping \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0140-y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new study\u003c/a> from climate scientists at UCLA projects big increases in the frequency of extreme events at both ends of the wet-dry spectrum: big flood-inducing storms as well as droughts.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘I can definitely attest to being unnerved by some of our findings.’\u003ccite>Daniel Swain, UCLA\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“I can definitely attest to being unnerved by some of our findings,” says the normally restrained Daniel Swain, lead author on the study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The team looked at specific extreme events in California’s past and used a suite of climate models to project their frequency in the future. Those events included last year’s “whiplash” winter that drenched the state after a five-year drought, as well as the state’s driest year and the epic \u003ca href=\"https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">floods of 1861-62\u003c/a>. That was the winter Gov. Leland Stanford attended his own inauguration by rowboat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It was kind of a biblical flood,” says co-author Alex Hall, who directs the \u003ca href=\"https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/climate/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Center for Climate Science\u003c/a> at UCLA. “It was 40 days straight, practically, of rain.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922931\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 707px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1922931 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2.jpg\" alt=\"Map and graphs\" width=\"707\" height=\"1558\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2.jpg 707w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2-160x353.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2-545x1200.jpg 545w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2-240x529.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2-375x826.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f2-520x1146.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 707px) 100vw, 707px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graphs show projected rising frequency of a storm sequence similar to that which caused the Great Flood of 1862. \u003ccite>(Swain, et al., Nature Climate Change)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Hall and Swain estimate that a similar event today could trigger a $1 trillion catastrophe. And they say it will happen again, perhaps sooner than scientists had previously reckoned.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/rzgxCYEM4NtELZKUVsCXq?domain=nature.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study, published today\u003c/a> in the journal, \u003cem>Nature Climate Change\u003c/em>, estimates that the Great Flood of 1862 was a once-in-200 year event at the time that it happened. Now, their projections indicate we can expect an event on that scale about every 50 years, and that it’s “more likely than not” we’ll see a recurrence sometime between now and 2060.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t think that we are prepared for that type of event,” says Hall, recalling the February 2017 storms that triggered widespread flooding throughout the state and mass evacuations along the Feather River after the nearly catastrophic failure of the spillways at Oroville Dam.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers looked at last year’s record-setting precipitation and projected that kind of whiplash winter will also be a more frequent feature of California’s hydrologic cycle, approximately doubling in frequency from its prior 25-year interval, a trend they say will be “noticeable” by 2035.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We know that these events happen,” says Hall. “They’re a natural feature of the climate system here in California — but, we expect them to become much more frequent in the future because of climate change.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘It’s definitely very sobering and it’s something that we have to plan for.’\u003ccite>Alex Hall, UCLA\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>The same goes for droughts, according to the UCLA study, which also looked at the state’s driest winter on record, 1976-77. Previously about a 100-year event, a single dry year of that severity would be expected to happen every 50 years, with greater frequency in Southern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s definitely very sobering and it’s something that we have to plan for,” says Hall, who admits to having a “pearl-clutch moment” when he first saw the data from his study. His preview of the then-unpublished work generated by far the most buzz at a recent symposium on extreme precipitation at \u003cspan class=\"st\">Scripps Institution of Oceanography \u003c/span>in La Jolla. But he says there may be a (somewhat tarnished) silver lining behind all of the dark clouds produced by his work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922933\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 707px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1922933 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3.jpg\" alt=\"Map and graphs\" width=\"707\" height=\"1558\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3.jpg 707w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3-160x353.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3-545x1200.jpg 545w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3-240x529.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3-375x826.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/Swain-f3-520x1146.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 707px) 100vw, 707px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Graphs show projected rising frequency of single drought years equivalent to California’s driest on record, 1976-77. \u003ccite>(Swain, et al., Nature Climate Change)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“If the planet comes together and eventually reduces or eliminated greenhouse gas emissions,” suggests Hall, “then we can avert some — not all — of the risk of these types of events occurring.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s important to point out that the team used a pessimistic “business-as-usual” projection of future greenhouse gas emissions in their calculations — in other words, they assumed that emissions are not significantly reduced in years to come. Swain says they chose this over a more optimistic mid-range assumption partly because, it’s “still (unfortunately) the closest to the actual observed emissions trajectory,” and that their scenario would, “likely apply even under very optimistic future emissions trajectories, but the magnitude of the changes in frequency would be substantially less on a lower emissions path.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other findings from the study were arresting as well. Among other things, the team projects a “sharpening” of California’s precipitation calendar, with more falling during the core winter months (November-February) and less during the spring and fall shoulder seasons. That has implications for runoff and water supply that will force a rethinking by water managers around the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think in general climate change is forcing us to confront the fact that we are not living in harmony with our environment,” says Hall.\u003cbr>\n“All climate change is doing is forcing us to confront that fact sooner, and this is an example of that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1922981\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-1020x695.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"436\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-1020x695.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-160x109.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-800x545.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-768x523.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-960x654.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-240x164.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-375x256.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/unnerved_042318_final-1180x804-1-520x354.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1922847/wilder-weather-swings-in-californias-future-could-spell-disaster","authors":["221"],"series":["science_1151"],"categories":["science_31","science_40"],"tags":["science_194","science_572","science_2114"],"featImg":"science_1922862","label":"source_science_1922847"},"science_1921902":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1921902","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1921902","score":null,"sort":[1522679446000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"skimpy-sierra-snowpack-leaves-a-lot-hanging-on-next-winter","title":"Sierra Snowpack Still Skimpy After March Storms","publishDate":1522679446,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Sierra Snowpack Still Skimpy After March Storms | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>The fifth most productive March on record for snow wasn’t enough to make up for disappointing precipitation throughout the key months of December, January and February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heading into the April measurement of the Sierra Nevada snowpack, water content \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/swccond.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">stood at more than 40 percent\u003c/a> below normal. It’s just 57 percent of the long-term average.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A system lining up in the Pacific could bring in a late-season bonus of snowfall later this week, but at this point there’s little that could save this from being a dry water year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=1b51f6ee-33ae-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State Climatologist Michael Anderson tried to put the best face on it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Not too little, too late, but…helpful. But not enough,” is the way he described the month of March following a symposium on — ironically enough — extreme precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anderson says there’s a temperature sweet spot for winter storms that deliver snow with the highest water content, which is really what matters. Too cold and the storm can’t hold sufficient water vapor, too warm and the snow line (the elevation where rain turns to snow) gets pushed higher up the hill, causing more precipitation to fall as rain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=4d668f0a-33ae-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With the warmer storms and the higher-elevation snow lines, you don’t have enough time with the cold air to build that pack,” Anderson explains. This winter, he says, we just didn’t hit the sweet spot often enough.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even this year’s disappointing pack beats by a long shot the same date in 2015, when the snowpack clocked in at 5 percent of normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Monday’s official survey of the snowpack is significant, as April 1 is considered the peak of the snow season, before accumulated snows begin to melt and become runoff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=7aca0b98-33ae-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen the bulk of our precipitation,” Anderson says, pointing out that 90 percent of a typical year’s precipitation falls between October 1 and April 1.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Sierra snowpack provides about a third of California’s water supply. Last year’s abundant rain and snow left many of the state’s largest reservoirs brimming. That “carryover” should stave off another drought emergency this summer, but it means Californians will count that much more heavily on next year’s wet season.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s really that look ahead of, ‘What does next year bring,'” says Anderson, “and this kind of year brings that to the forefront.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Before and after: thank goodness for March. Check out the images in this post to see how one month helped plump up the snowpack.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704928052,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":17,"wordCount":428},"headData":{"title":"Sierra Snowpack Still Skimpy After March Storms | KQED","description":"Before and after: thank goodness for March. Check out the images in this post to see how one month helped plump up the snowpack.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"Water","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1921902/skimpy-sierra-snowpack-leaves-a-lot-hanging-on-next-winter","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The fifth most productive March on record for snow wasn’t enough to make up for disappointing precipitation throughout the key months of December, January and February.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heading into the April measurement of the Sierra Nevada snowpack, water content \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/swccond.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">stood at more than 40 percent\u003c/a> below normal. It’s just 57 percent of the long-term average.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A system lining up in the Pacific could bring in a late-season bonus of snowfall later this week, but at this point there’s little that could save this from being a dry water year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=1b51f6ee-33ae-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State Climatologist Michael Anderson tried to put the best face on it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Not too little, too late, but…helpful. But not enough,” is the way he described the month of March following a symposium on — ironically enough — extreme precipitation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anderson says there’s a temperature sweet spot for winter storms that deliver snow with the highest water content, which is really what matters. Too cold and the storm can’t hold sufficient water vapor, too warm and the snow line (the elevation where rain turns to snow) gets pushed higher up the hill, causing more precipitation to fall as rain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=4d668f0a-33ae-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With the warmer storms and the higher-elevation snow lines, you don’t have enough time with the cold air to build that pack,” Anderson explains. This winter, he says, we just didn’t hit the sweet spot often enough.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even this year’s disappointing pack beats by a long shot the same date in 2015, when the snowpack clocked in at 5 percent of normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Monday’s official survey of the snowpack is significant, as April 1 is considered the peak of the snow season, before accumulated snows begin to melt and become runoff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=7aca0b98-33ae-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen the bulk of our precipitation,” Anderson says, pointing out that 90 percent of a typical year’s precipitation falls between October 1 and April 1.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Sierra snowpack provides about a third of California’s water supply. Last year’s abundant rain and snow left many of the state’s largest reservoirs brimming. That “carryover” should stave off another drought emergency this summer, but it means Californians will count that much more heavily on next year’s wet season.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s really that look ahead of, ‘What does next year bring,'” says Anderson, “and this kind of year brings that to the forefront.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1921902/skimpy-sierra-snowpack-leaves-a-lot-hanging-on-next-winter","authors":["221"],"series":["science_1151"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_98"],"tags":["science_3180","science_1462"],"featImg":"science_1921826","label":"source_science_1921902"},"science_1920744":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1920744","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1920744","score":null,"sort":[1520282883000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"see-what-the-big-storm-brought-to-the-sierra","title":"Look What the Big Storm Brought to the Sierra","publishDate":1520282883,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Look What the Big Storm Brought to the Sierra | KQED","labelTerm":{"term":1151,"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>A powerful storm visible in satellite images has dramatically changed the state’s seasonal snowpack totals, according to today’s monthly survey — but it still leaves California’s water supplies well below normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘Watch how you use water.’\u003ccite>Frank Gherke,\u003cbr>\nCalifornia Department of Water Resources\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>The Sierra Nevada’s biggest storm of the year attracted (and threatened) skiiers and closed some roads; Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows \u003ca href=\"http://squawalpine.com/explore/blog/over-7-feet-storm-totals-and-over-100-inches-9-days\">reported\u003c/a> 7 feet of snow this weekend. The storm also delayed state scientists’ monthly trek out to Phillips Station, just off highway 50 near Echo Summit. This is just one spot in the California Cooperative Snow Survey (CCSS) managed by the Department of Water Resources (DWR).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Monday, survey chief, Frank Gehrke, found 41.5 inches of snow at the site, with a water content of just over nine inches. That’s more than triple what the site held a week earlier.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=7700848e-20b6-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003cbr>\n“It’s an encouraging start to March, but we’ve got a long way to go,” Gehrke said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Measurements from the larger network of stations comprising the CCSS find the state’s snowpack \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/DLYSWEQ\">at around 37% of normal\u003c/a> for this time of year. That’s a potential problem since the frozen reservoir of water in California’s snowpack has, in the past, provided around a third of the state’s supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It would take two more of the sort of storms we just went through” to approach normal snowpack by April 1, Gehrke said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California officials ended the state declaration of drought in 2017, buoyed by last year’s near-record winter rains. But paltry winter precipitation has returned nearly half the state to drought again, \u003ca href=\"http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA\">according to the U.S. Drought Monitor\u003c/a>.\u003cbr>\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=38d377de-20b6-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So much snow dumped in the last few days that the Sierra Avalanche Center \u003ca href=\"https://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org/advisory%20of%20deep%20slab%20and%20wind-driven%20avalanches\">is warning\u003c/a> of considerable risk. And recent rainstorms \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/rescond.pdf\">have filled\u003c/a> reservoirs to capacity or close to it even in overdry Southern California. Those conditions have helped stave off a return to declared drought in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UCLA climatologist Dan Swain points out that changing climatic conditions may force change in policy considerations, too. Historically, California has swung between lean water years and fat ones, between warm years and cold. However, he says, “we’re definitely drifting in a certain temperature right now, which is warmer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=01cbfb8a-20b6-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003cbr>\nWhat that means, Swain says, is that California is likely to see two conditions thought to be contradictory: more rain years as well as more severe and prolonged droughts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These systems that we have in place right now were designed for a particular climate that no longer exists,” Swain says, “and will be even further from the climate we’re likely to have just a couple of decades from now,.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>DWR’s Gehrke says the survey offers a simpler and immediate lesson: “Watch how you use water.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Check out a before and after view of how the year's biggest storm boosted Sierra Nevada snowpack.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704928141,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":502},"headData":{"title":"Look What the Big Storm Brought to the Sierra | KQED","description":"Check out a before and after view of how the year's biggest storm boosted Sierra Nevada snowpack.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"nprByline":"\u003cstrong>Molly Peterson\u003c/strong>","path":"/science/1920744/see-what-the-big-storm-brought-to-the-sierra","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>A powerful storm visible in satellite images has dramatically changed the state’s seasonal snowpack totals, according to today’s monthly survey — but it still leaves California’s water supplies well below normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘Watch how you use water.’\u003ccite>Frank Gherke,\u003cbr>\nCalifornia Department of Water Resources\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>The Sierra Nevada’s biggest storm of the year attracted (and threatened) skiiers and closed some roads; Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows \u003ca href=\"http://squawalpine.com/explore/blog/over-7-feet-storm-totals-and-over-100-inches-9-days\">reported\u003c/a> 7 feet of snow this weekend. The storm also delayed state scientists’ monthly trek out to Phillips Station, just off highway 50 near Echo Summit. This is just one spot in the California Cooperative Snow Survey (CCSS) managed by the Department of Water Resources (DWR).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On Monday, survey chief, Frank Gehrke, found 41.5 inches of snow at the site, with a water content of just over nine inches. That’s more than triple what the site held a week earlier.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=7700848e-20b6-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003cbr>\n“It’s an encouraging start to March, but we’ve got a long way to go,” Gehrke said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Measurements from the larger network of stations comprising the CCSS find the state’s snowpack \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/DLYSWEQ\">at around 37% of normal\u003c/a> for this time of year. That’s a potential problem since the frozen reservoir of water in California’s snowpack has, in the past, provided around a third of the state’s supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It would take two more of the sort of storms we just went through” to approach normal snowpack by April 1, Gehrke said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California officials ended the state declaration of drought in 2017, buoyed by last year’s near-record winter rains. But paltry winter precipitation has returned nearly half the state to drought again, \u003ca href=\"http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA\">according to the U.S. Drought Monitor\u003c/a>.\u003cbr>\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=38d377de-20b6-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So much snow dumped in the last few days that the Sierra Avalanche Center \u003ca href=\"https://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org/advisory%20of%20deep%20slab%20and%20wind-driven%20avalanches\">is warning\u003c/a> of considerable risk. And recent rainstorms \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/rescond.pdf\">have filled\u003c/a> reservoirs to capacity or close to it even in overdry Southern California. Those conditions have helped stave off a return to declared drought in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UCLA climatologist Dan Swain points out that changing climatic conditions may force change in policy considerations, too. Historically, California has swung between lean water years and fat ones, between warm years and cold. However, he says, “we’re definitely drifting in a certain temperature right now, which is warmer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=01cbfb8a-20b6-11e8-b263-0edaf8f81e27\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003cbr>\nWhat that means, Swain says, is that California is likely to see two conditions thought to be contradictory: more rain years as well as more severe and prolonged droughts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These systems that we have in place right now were designed for a particular climate that no longer exists,” Swain says, “and will be even further from the climate we’re likely to have just a couple of decades from now,.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>DWR’s Gehrke says the survey offers a simpler and immediate lesson: “Watch how you use water.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1920744/see-what-the-big-storm-brought-to-the-sierra","authors":["byline_science_1920744"],"series":["science_1151"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40","science_98"],"featImg":"science_1920760","label":"science_1151"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? 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But is this once sleepy suburb ready for them?","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/powerpress/1440_0018_AmericanSuburb_iTunesTile_01.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"13"},"link":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?mt=2&id=1287748328","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/American-Suburb-p1086805/","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkMzMDExODgxNjA5"}},"baycurious":{"id":"baycurious","title":"Bay Curious","tagline":"Exploring the Bay Area, one question at a time","info":"KQED’s new podcast, Bay Curious, gets to the bottom of the mysteries — both profound and peculiar — that give the Bay Area its unique identity. And we’ll do it with your help! You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/powerpress/1440_0017_BayCurious_iTunesTile_01.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/2021/10/BBC_1400.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/CodeSwitchLifeKit_StationGraphics_300x300EmailGraphic.png","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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