Mark Takano (D), newly elected representative from the 41st Congressional District in the Inland Empire. (MarkTakano.com)

California’s Congressional delegation will include about a dozen new faces next year. Redistricting and the state’s “Top Two” primary system led to an unusual number of competitive races, as well as a few upsets — and Democrats are the beneficiaries.

Of the state’s 53 Congressional districts, 34 are currently represented by Democrats. With Tuesday’s voting, at least one more seat will turn blue, while three other races still appear too close to call.

For starters, parts of the Inland Empire are looking a lot more purple — with areas once seen as Republican strongholds giving way to a wave of Democratic newcomers.

Early on election night, Mark Takano wasn’t yet ready to claim victory as returns showed him ahead of his Republican opponent in the newly drawn 41st Congressional District. “So let’s be patient,” he said, “luxuriate in the feeling we have now and be hopeful that change has come to Riverside.” But within hours it was clear that Takano, currently a Riverside Community College board trustee, had become the first openly gay Asian American elected to Congress. He believes that his success was partly driven by a wave of younger voters he says are more accepting of gay candidates. Robert Melsh supported Takano in two prior unsuccessful Congressional bids in the early 1990’s — when opponents circulated anti-gay campaign flyers. That didn’t happen this time.

“That shows you that not only is Riverside getting ‘blue’ politically, but it’s growing up. Four years from now it will be more majority Hispanic, it’ll be diversified, and Republicans will be running for cover,” says Melsh.

In what’s shaping up to be one of the biggest upsets, political first-timer Democrat Raul Ruiz appears to have defeated veteran GOP Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack of Palm Springs. The county registrar’s office still has thousands of vote-by-mail ballots to tally. But registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a narrow majority in the newly drawn 36^th District. It’s the first time Bono Mack sought re-election in a district that was not more heavily weighted toward Republicans.

The congresswoman was also hurt by a comment she made referring to the city of Coachella as a “third world toilet.” The Coachella Valley is home to a large number of Latinos — who make up about a third of the district’s voters. During an election night interview with the Palm Springs Desert Sun, Bono Mack all but conceded the race with thousands of votes left to tally. “Historically the trend would say that the numbers will continue to go the way they are going, and that he [Ruiz] will win,” she said.

Republicans held ground in other parts of the Inland Empire, including the 31^st Congressional District which includes San Bernardino. But by toppling the GOP in several other key races, Democrats might now see the region as a winnable battleground for future state and national candidates.

Before Assembly District 49 in Los Angeles’ San Gabriel Valley was redrawn, a majority Asian-American state legislative district in California had never existed

Ed Chau (Alice Walton/KPCC)

Now, it’s a busy election season in the 49^th, which is just east of Los Angeles and includes the cities of Alhambra, San Gabriel and Monterey Park, sometimes referred to as “the first suburban Chinatown.” In these communities, more than half of the residents were born outside of the United States, and three-quarters speak a language other than English.

Kathay Feng, Executive Director of California Common Cause, says the Asian-American community has a long history in the region. “The area has become a gateway for a lot of Asian-American immigrants, and it has been that way for 30, 40 years now, to successive waves….” Majority representation for Asian Americans is a big change for a community that experienced an English-only movement just 25 years ago,  a backlash against the growing number of immigrants. Now the community is tied together by common concerns. Feng lists them off:

“Language issues, the need for bilingual assistance, making sure that access to schools and public services are provided in multiple languages. Protecting a fairly new immigrant population from practices like predatory lending,”

Matthew Lin (Lin campaign)

What makes this race somewhat unpredictable is that most of California’s Asian-American citizens do not identify with a political party, as a recent survey showed. In the San Gabriel Valley’s 49^th District, almost a third of registered voters do not list a political preference. About a quarter of voters are Republican, and about 40 percent are Democrats.

“They’re very guarded about what their political affiliation is, perhaps because of the countries that they’ve come from and their experience in being careful about allowing their political preferences be known to the public,” Feng explains.

That attitude toward political parties may explain why Republican Matthew Lin won the June primary with 52 percent of the vote — even though he ran in a Democratic-leaning district. He beat out Democrat Edwin Chau, who finished with 35 percent. In fact, Lin won more votes than Chau and a second Democratic candidate combined. But that result doesn’t worry Chau. “As far as the primary result was concerned, it was one of the lowest voter turnout races in the history of the district, and we believe that the November electorate is going to be much different and it’s going to be pretty high,” he says.

In Ed Chau’s campaign office, phone-banking comes in a variety of languages that reflect the demographics of the district. Chau is an attorney, engineer and member of the local school board. He’s been endorsed by two prominent fellow Democrats, the district’s current Assemblyman, Mike Eng, and Congresswoman Judy Chu.

On a recent night, volunteers packed the storefront office to call voters and encourage them to support Chau. “We do have volunteers who are bilingual so when they reach out to the voters, they could speak a language of these voters,” he says. “So that way they could feel more comfortable in finding out who I am.”

Nearby, at Matthew Lin’s headquarters, a similar scene plays out. Volunteers spend their evenings making 3,000 calls in English, Spanish and Mandarin. Lin’s message to voters in the district is that he has an immigration story similar to their own. He moved to America from Taiwan in 1973, became a doctor and founded an orthopedic medical center. “They feel that, like I do, everybody should have the…same opportunity that we do to succeed at the American dream,” he says.

The San Gabriel Valley Tribune endorsed Lin in the race. Though he’s running as a Republican, the newspaper called him a “rare bird, a party moderate with some even liberal moments.” On Election Day, both Lin and Chau will find out how much labels matter in this first-of-a-kind district.

(California Secretary of State)

There’s a lot to be confused about on this November’s ballot — opaque fundraising, complicated language, unclear outcomes. In a crowded field of confusion, Proposition 40 is one of the leaders in this election, because you have to think twice about voting for the outcome that you want. Tuesday morning on The California Report, host Rachael Myrow spoke with John Myers, political editor for Sacramento’s KXTV, to better understand the proposition.

To start off, Myrow pointed out that Prop. 40 is a referendum, which is different from an initiative.

Here’s the edited transcript of their discussion:

John Myers: A referendum is a different question for the voters, unlike an initiative, which asks the voters to create a law. A referendum asks, “Do you want to overturn an existing law? Do you support an existing law?” So, if you vote “yes” on Prop. 40, you are saying, “Yes, I support the existing law of political districts for the California State Senate.” We may remember that these were drawn by a citizens panel in 2011. A “yes” vote says, “Yes, I like the maps that the independent citizens group drew.” A “no” vote says, “No, I do not like them. I want them redrawn.” So this is a chance for people to weigh in on those maps that were drawn for the State Senate, one of the maps that they drew last year.

Rachael Myrow: It’s good that you mention that, because I think a lot of people think, “Wait a minute, didn’t the Citizens Redistricting Commission have to do with more than just State Senate maps?” But that’s specifically what Proposition 40 is talking about.

John Myers: Indeed. And if we peel it back a little bit more, Prop. 40 was a big gamble that was put on by the California Republican Party. What the California Republican Party and members of the Republican Party in the state saw — when they saw the State Senate map — is there was one particular district along the Central Coast that they didn’t like. There were a few others they might not have liked, either. They challenged those districts in the California Supreme Court. Part of their court challenge was to qualify a ballot referendum at the same time — and to try to force the Supreme Court’s hand to get involved and redraw those maps.

In January, the California Supreme Court said, “No, we’re going to let that citizens map stand.” The California Republican Party had already spent $2 million to qualify the referendum, and they had already submitted the signatures. In California once you put something on the ballot, it is almost impossible to get it off the ballot. So now this is an “orphaned measure.” Even the California Republican Party says, “Ah, it’s okay. We want those maps to stand.”

So, no one is asking voters to overturn the maps. Everyone is asking you to vote “yes” and ratify the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s State Senate map.

Rachael Myrow: Is there anybody who doesn’t want Proposition 40 to pass?

John Myers: Not really, because the reality is that if Prop. 40 fails, then — under the terms of a referendum, if the voters throw out that set of maps for the California State Senate — it would go back to the California Supreme Court.

In its ruling back in January, the state’s high court said, “You know what? We may even consider this very same map, just taking the name ‘Citizens Commission’ off of it and making it our own map.” I think a lot of watchers believe that those districts, that members of the State Senate, and would-be state senators are running in, in this election season, it’s going to happen either way. Either the Court would just basically just bless it again, if Prop. 40 should happen to fail, or if Prop 40 passes, everything goes back. It’s very confusing, but I do think the moral of the story is that we don’t get a lot of referendums, and this is what happens when you put something on the ballot. You can’t pull it back once you submit those signatures. You’ve got to run a campaign of some sort.

Rachael Myrow: So, let me get this straight: no matter what happens November 6th, we’re still going to get the same State Senate maps that the Citizens Redistricting Commission wanted?

John Myers: It’s my belief that that would be the case. I can’t say that 100 percent, but having covered this and having watched the redistricting process and watched what the court said, I think the court thinks that those maps are constitutional. That was their threshold: Were they fair? Did they meet laws about fairness to minority groups and populations? They think the maps are fair. The Republicans didn’t like them for political reasons. One way or the other, I think these are the maps you’re going to get. Having said that, it’s a heck of a lot easier, I think everyone would agree, if the voters said “yes” to Prop. 40, and the map stayed in place that way. Otherwise, you’ve got to go back to court, and that costs time and money.

Rachael Myrow: John, thank you for providing some clarity for us.

John Myers: There’s not much, but happy to do it.

Both Garamendi and his challenger, Republican Kim Vann were guests Friday on KQED’s Forum.

Vann, a former Colusa County supervisor, focused her comments almost exclusively on supporting businesses through the entire discussion. When asked how she would create jobs, she pointed to her record.

“I’ll do it the very same way I’ve done it as a county supervisor,” she told Forum host Dave Iverson, “get government out of the way, make sure that the businesses understand what the rules are, not constantly changing the game and changing rules through over-reaching regulations. Making sure we have a good, solid tax code that people can understand.”

Garamendi blamed Republican obstructionism which, he says, has blocked passage of President Obama’s American Jobs Act. He then promoted his own plan to build the economy. ”It is this,” he said, “spend our tax money on American-made products. This is really something that can make a difference — in Sacramento. Siemens, the big German manufacturing company, has built a manufacturing plant to build 70 locomotives for Amtrak. This is part of the stimulus money, revamping the Amtrak system with new locomotives, 100% American made. … That’s taxpayer dollars being spent in America, on American made equipment.”

But Vann called the idea of more regulation a “band-aid” that would not address the core economic problems. “We adamantly refuse to address why businesses are not function at a high level in this country,” she said. “We are over regulating them. We are over taxing them. We are not giving them the confidence they need to grow their business. And adding another regulation is not going to fix that.”

Another big topic on the campaign trail is health care. Vann said she would join Republican colleagues in voting to repeal the Affordable Care Act. “This comes down to another situation where there are really good parts to it with some unintended outcomes,” Vann said. “This bill was put together with politics in mind first. Not the relationship between the patient and the doctor.”

Garamendi has a long record in California politics and he pointed to his tenure as Insurance Commissioner when discussing his support for the health care law.  ”I was the Insurance Commissioner in California for eight years,” he said. “And I understand what the private health insurance companies can do to people. It is the Affordable Care Act that pushes the insurance companies to provide insurance.”

You can listen to the 30-minute discussion here:

For the last decade, California’s races for the United States House of Representatives have held few surprises. Just one seat has changed parties in the last decade. This election, newly drawn district lines have put California in play and emboldened the Democrats, who are depending on the state, help regain the House majority. However, two races in the Inland Empire shows it will be a tough fight.

Democratic candidate Mark Takano has run his campaign for the House of Representatives out of his two-bedroom condo.

He’s a candidate in a newly formed district in Riverside. The Democratic Party hopes he’ll be able to pick up one of the 25 seats they need nationally to take back the House.

“My living room is a mess,” said Takano.

Volunteers and campaign workers who camp out on the couches have left a trail of stains

“We’ve been saving some money by running everything out of a condo. But I think it is a testament to American democracy that in a humble space such as this, we’re going to change the world,” said Takano.

Or, at least help change the balance of power in the House, and give Riverside its first Democratic representative in 20 years.

Takano is a public school teacher. He’s served on the Riverside Community College board for nearly two decades. His opponent is John Tavaglione, a moderate Republican who is a veteran on the Riverside County Board of Supervisors.

On paper, the race looked like a slam-dunk for the Democrats. The party had more than an eight-point registration advantage. However, Takano came in second in the primary. With less than a third of registered voters casting ballots, Republicans outvoted Democrats by about seven percent.

Eric McGhee, an election analyst at the Public Policy Institute of California, says that Democratic turnout will probably bump up this fall.

“When you’re talking about a district that’s kind of a toss-up, it’s on the order of four or five percentage points.”

McGhee says the fact that this is a presidential election year will also help Democrats.

“The general electorate turnout has been climbing, especially in presidential years. And there’s no reason to think that this fall is not going to be a hotly contested presidential race. So, it’s going to be exciting. And we should expect a big turnout.”

However, other dynamics will come into play. Tavaglione is well-known and well-liked, even by some Democrats. And, Brock McCleary, who’s a strategist with the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, says Tavaglione has Takano beat on the financial front.

“Tavaglione has more cash on hand than Takano, and he’s about to have the biggest quarter of his political career,” said McGhee. “You know, he’s really starting to hit the afterburners here out of the primary.”

Takano has the backing of unions and Democratic political action funds. But, he says he can use all the help he can get.

“I think this will be a resource war. Because we have such natural advantages in the district, we don’t need to match them dollar for dollar. We need enough to get the message out.”

Statewide, there are 11 tight races that Democrats hope to win. Four are seats they currently hold and must hang onto. Of the seven other races, analysts say Republicans have the edge in four, Democrats have the advantage in two, and one is a pure tossup.

Just down the road in San Bernardino, a race the Democrats were counting on was wiped off their board. A crowd of Democratic candidates on that ballot split up the vote. Under the new top-two primary system, the two Republicans squeaked by.

Democrats around the Inland Empire call it a political tragedy. The Democrat’s top vote getter, Pete Aguilar, who was shy about just 1000 votes, said he wasn’t ready to talk about it, yet.

Renea Wickman, the Democrat who finished at the bottom of the pack, says people asked her to drop out of the race for fear she’d suck up Aguilar’s votes. In fact, she got about 3500, triple the amount Aguilar needed to get on November’s ticket. But, she says Aguilar had big-time backing and its not her fault he lost.

“If my few little votes could stop half a million dollars and the backing of all the unions and, then hey, I am a powerful woman,” said Wickman. “So, I mean, if you think that I have that much power to do that, then you need to make me your candidate.”

Political analysts say, in the future, parties may try to exert more control over who runs given this new top-two system. Nathan Gonzales, who’s an editor with the Rothenberg Political Report, says California is a tough road:

“I think California looked better for the Democrats six months to a year ago.”

Yet, Jennifer Crider, a strategist with the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says even though the path to the majority may be steeper than anticipated, it still leads through California.

“We have an opportunity for four to six seats right in California and that’s a significant portion of our strategy and our plan,” said Crider.

Crider says the proof will come in November when she predicts that Democratic candidates, like Takano, will really clean house.

Tyche Hendricks/KQED

The June 5 primary may look drama free. After all… The presidential contest? Settled. The U.S. Senate race? Not too exciting.

But thanks to retirements, redistricting and California’s new top-two primary, the conventional wisdom about incumbents having safe seats is being turned on it’s head.

Host Scott Shafer moderated the conversation on Forum Friday, zooming in on several hotly-contested Congressional races and analyzing two political reforms that have completely re-shuffled the deck.

He’s joined by:

Take a listen: