San Francisco State University history lecturer Steve Leikin, left, talks with a student at a university election rally in October. Leikin was working with the campaign against Proposition 32. Photo by Ian Hill/KQED.

Leading California pollsters are raising questions about the accuracy of the Edison Research exit poll (viewable on the CNN website) in terms of how big a share young voters — and non-white voters — comprised of all those casting ballots in California in last Tuesday’s election.

What’s not in dispute: Young voters and “ethnic voters” (which is to say Latinos, Asian-Americans and African-Americans) played an influential role in California’s big Democratic turnout… helping to pass Proposition 30, Gov. Jerry Brown’s tax hike measure, and giving President Obama a 21 percentage point edge in the already-blue state.

As we reported last week, Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo cast doubt on the share of last Tuesday’s voters who were under 30. The Edison exit poll put 18-29 year olds at 27 percent of Californians who voted in this election. But 18-29 year olds make up just 16 percent of all registered voters in the state, said DiCamillo. And in 2008 exit polling showed this age group was 20 percent of California voters.

“I certainly believe that the story line of this elections the power of ethnic voters, and that younger voters turned out in high numbers,” DiCamillo said. “It has to do with the governor [specifically Gov. Brown's campaign for Prop. 30] and online registration [which went into effect in September and has so far been used mostly by young Californians]…. But I can’t believe the 27 percent. That’s a huge number. To move the needle one full percentage point is a big thing, to move it seven or eight points is beyond credibility.”

And the incredulity extends to the Edison exit poll’s reported share of voters who are not white.

• DiCamillo and others note that of all the registered voters in California, 5.5 percent are black, and they typically turn out roughly in their population proportion. But according to the exit poll, they are 8 percent of Tuesday’s voters.
• Asian Americans make up an estimated 10 percent of the state’s registered voters. The exit poll put their share of the turnout at 11 percent.
• And Latinos are 23 percent of registered voters in California. are Latino. The exit poll showed them making up 22 percent of Californians who voted this election. But Latinos are younger and are less likely to have gone to college, on average, than the overall population, while older, better educated people historically vote at higher rates. “So even with good turnout, I would expect they would be a couple of points below their total registration,” observed Di Camillo.

Other political observers concur that the exit poll may not have gotten a perfectly accurate picture of who voted in California. “Because of early voting, exit polls no longer quantify the electorate accurately,” said Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin. “I would use exit polling for how people voted, not quantifying what the electorate looks like.”

Sacramento blogger Scott Lay has come up with his own “blending” of pre-election Field Poll turnout predictions and Edison exit polling to estimate actual turnout as somewhere in between the two.

Over the next couple of months, pollsters, scholars and political analysts will be digging in deeper: looking at turnout information from the Census Bureau’s November Current Population Survey, as well as the number crunching of private campaign consulting firms such as Political Data Inc. — to get a more accurate sense of the shape of the electorate: who turned out and in what proportion.

In the absence of precise figures, plain old political common sense prevailed.

“It was a very good night for Democrats,” said Mark Baldassare, president and chief pollster at the Public Policy Institute of California. “It just suggests to me that you must have had this high turnout of Latinos and younger voters, and a very poor showing among Republicans.”

“How did California Democrats win a supermajority in the legislature?” Tulchin asked. “The Obama coalition of young voters, Latinos, Asian Americans, African Americans, and throw in some white liberals: It gave Obama a big margin. His win exceeded what polling showed would happen. It’s the same with Prop. 30…. And in California, a young voter is overwhelmingly Latino or Asian.”

UC Irvine Political Science Professor Louis DeSipio wondered why the turnout of young people in the state did appear to get a substantial boost, while in the country as a whole it did not.

“Was there something unique in California?” asked De Sipio. “There’s no particular reason that the presidential race would mobilize more young people in a noncompetitive state like California. Maybe people turned out for some tight Congressional races, but the unique issue in California was the mobilization around Prop. 30. One big effect [if the measure failed] was to diminish funding for community colleges, the UCs and the CSUs. There was a message coming from college administrations and unions organizing, and young people felt it.”

DiCamillo was startled to see that white voters in California dropped to just 55 percent of all who voted, according to the Edison exit poll. “I’ve never seen an election in California below 60 percent white,” he said. “It jumps out at me. Wow. I don’t think we’re that far down the road yet. I think it’s coming, but I don’t think we’re there yet.”

Whether young people and non-white voters exceeded turnout expectations in California this year, the Golden State is pointing the direction for where the rest of the country is headed, observers say.

And Di Camillo gets the last word: “The main message of this election is that the ethnic vote really powered the Obama victory in California, it really powered the Prop 30 vote on the yes side. And the same thing goes with the youth vote. It was the youth vote that turned out in force that probably made the difference on Prop. 30.”

California Gov. Jerry Brown during a rally on Monday in support of Proposition 30. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

California voters soundly passed Proposition 30, 54 to 46 percent. Many considered it the biggest measure on this California ballot.

Gov. Jerry Brown crisscrossed the state in recent weeks making his pitch, supported by union leaders, teachers and others keen to avoid the “trigger cuts” that would have hit had Prop. 30 failed. But even before the final count was in, the governor was in a buoyant mood at the Yes on 30 election night party in downtown Sacramento.

Gov. Brown had a lot on the line with Prop 30. It imposes a temporary 1/4-cent sales tax and raises income taxes on the wealthy for seven years.

The failure of Prop. 30 would have triggered $6 billion in education cuts. And the governor staked his reputation on the measure, making it his top priority.

But last night as Prop. 30 was trending well, and exit polls looked promising, Brown was very optimistic.

“[This is] the only place in America where the state said, ‘let’s raise taxes for kids, for our schools, for our California dream,’” Brown said.

Brown took aim at Proposition 30′s opponents for what he called their doctrinaire thinking that government can’t do anything right.

And that was one of the major challenges of the Prop. 30 campaign. For the past five years the state has used education funding to balance the budget, and opponents say they don’t trust lawmakers to spend the money as promised.

Dean Vogel, president of the California Teachers’ Association says he’s optimistic that voters understood Prop. 30 guarantees funding for schools, despite a well funded ‘no’ campaign.

“One of the things voters consistently have said is California is not for sale,” Vogel said. “We want to decide for ourselves what we’re going to do, and I believe they’re doing that tonight.”

The “No on Proposition 30″ campaign was outspent, but still well-funded. A large contribution from out-of-state groups came under scrutiny by state regulators who on Monday said the donation represents the largest case of campaign money laundering in state history.

Proposition 30 also faced a threat from a competing education funding measure, Proposition 38, funded by billionaire Molly Munger. That measure was soundly defeated.

If you want to sport this sticker, you'll have to decipher the state ballot and then vote. (EVA HAMBACH/AFP/Getty Images)

by Lisa Aliferis and Jon Brooks

It’s getting down to the wire — just seven days to make up your mind on a plethora of issues and races … and then ya gotta vote.

Lucky you: We’re here to help.

Our reports about Props. 30 and 38 (education and taxes); the nine-item Prop. 31 (governance) and Prop. 37 (labeling GMO foods) are attracting a lot of attention online. So either we’ve really figured out this SEO thing, or you’re genuinely interested in those initiatives in particular.

Thus, we’re compiling the best-of-the-best of our coverage on these props so that you don’t have to stand in the voting booth pondering whether numerological concerns aren’t going to be the one determining factor after all in how you vote on these things, complex as they are, yet sold, packaged and soundbited by opponents and proponents alike direct to your Id.

So read up!

-Proposition 30 and Proposition 38 both promise to fund schools, but in different ways.

• Explaining the Difference Between Props 30 and 38
• Gov’s Prop. 30 Tax Hike: More for Schools … or More Money Misspent?
• Video: This Week in Northern California recently devoted its full program to the dueling propositions

-Proposition 31 will do nine (yes, 9) different things, attempting to overhaul state governance. God knows California governance needs overhaul, but is Prop. 31 the right approach?

• Making Sense of the Very, Very Complicated Prop. 31
• Supporter and Opponent Explain Prop. 31′s ‘Community Strategic Action Plans’

-Proposition 37 requires the labeling of genetically modified ingredients in foods.

• California’s Prop. 37: Are GMO Labels a Scarlet Letter?
• Fact-Checking the Arguments on Prop. 37

On Friday, KQED’s This Week in Northern California examined the competing propositions.

Voters in Redwood City approved a local tax for district schools earlier this year. (Ana Tintocalis: KQED)

Redwood City is a suburb just south of San Francisco. In recent years, the city has restored its historic downtown area and cleaned up its neighborhoods. But one thing remains the same: the Redwood City school district still gets the lowest amount of state education funding compared to neighboring communities — a result of the state’s complex school funding formula. That rubs 78-year-old Redwood City education advocate Margaret Marshall the wrong way. “It’s not fair and it’s wrong,” she says.

Marshall served on the district’s school board back in the 1980s. But when the state cut millions from education funding over the last two years, she took action. Marshall and an army of volunteers spent hours drafting a local parcel tax for Redwood City schools this past spring. Parcel taxes have become extremely popular among public school districts because the money raised goes directly into local campuses and teachers.

Redwood City tried three times before to pass a parcel tax, but this time Marshall says voters were finally ready to listen. “I had more coffee and cups of tea in the little coffeehouses locally,” she tells me. “But when you take the time to explain it to someone, one-on-one, you feel better about it. I think lots of times people distrust because they don’t understand what is happening.”

That grassroots effort paid off in the June primary. Redwood City schools will now get $1.7 million extra every year for the next several years.

It’s not just this community. Voters across California approved a record number of local school parcel taxes in elections earlier this year. Now, in the November election, a whopping 131 local school tax initiatives will appear on ballots across California.

Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California, says voters’ recent inclination to support such measures could spell trouble for the two statewide tax hike initiatives Propositions 30 and 38. “If [voters] see the money being spent on their block, on their street, in their child’s school, they’re at least willing to consider that tax increase,” Schnur said.

Of the two statewide tax proposals, Gov. Jerry Brown’s Proposition 30 has greater public support, but voters are still not convinced the money it raises will get to local classrooms. Schnur says Brown’s biggest political roadblock is deep-rooted voter skepticism — which is why Brown has pushed so hard for pension and welfare reform, and even cut down on cell phones that state employees have at their disposal.

“Almost everything he has done has been designed to say to voters, ‘Hey look! You can trust me with your tax dollars,’” Schnur says.

The governor’s Prop. 30 television ads reflect his ‘you can trust me’ message. In the ads Brown has softened his take-charge tone and is shown chatting with students in colorful classrooms and libraries.

Prop. 30 would raise about $6 billion by both taxing California’s wealthiest and increasing the sales tax for all. Roughly half of the new money would go toward public schools and community colleges. The rest would help tackle the state’s structural deficit.

Critics say the governor is misleading voters by claiming Prop. 30 is an education tax measure when it also raises revenue for other uses.

Brown’s campaign, however, says stabilizing the state’s overall budget is essential for school funding. Educators and parents who support Prop. 30 emphasize what will happen if the measure does not pass — a $6 billion spending cut halfway into this school year.

Cuts Would Hit Small Districts Especially Hard

The Pajaro Valley Unified School District, which serves the agricultural community of Wastonville, needs all the money it can get to provide extra resources for its students who are learning English as a second language.

The district’s chief business officer Brett McFadden says that is why the Pajaro Valley school board, the local teachers union, and community groups have endorsed Prop. 30. However, McFadden says the governor’s measure is still not a perfect solution.

“Prop. 30 would just stabilize us. We don’t get anything extra from it. [The measure] just protects us against a further cut. To that extent, it isn’t a magic bullet. It’s a temporary fix.” McFadden said.

Still, the statewide tax hike proposal remains Watsonville’s best hope. Most immigrant parents here don’t earn a lot of money, and many are not registered voters. As hard as it was for Redwood City to pass a local parcel tax, Watsonville would face an even steeper climb to securing a two-thirds vote. The statewide measures need just a simple majority vote: 50 percent plus one.

A poll this week by the Public Policy Institute of California shows the governor’s Prop. 30 measure with 48 percent support, and Prop. 38 with 39 percent.

The challenge over the next week-and-a-half will be whether either campaign can bridge the “tax-trust” divide.

Through the studio glass: Michael Krasny hosts KQED's daily call-in show "Forum."

Here at KQED, we take elections pretty seriously. It’s a time when our mission of educating the public comes to a head — the messages coming from the campaigns are unrelenting and taken as a whole can present a confusing picture. So helping you cast an informed vote is our aim.

That was the philosophy behind our state proposition guide. Some people, however, prefer listening to reading. For those folks we present a complete archive of Forum’s 2012 state proposition shows. Some are an hour long, some are half an hour, but all present views from both sides and include community input we received via calls, emails, Facebook and Twitter. So sit back, turn up your speakers, and take a listen…

Prop. 30: Gov. Brown’s Tax Increase for Education, Public Safety

Prop. 31: Revises the State Budget Process

Prop. 32: Campaign Finance Reform or an Attack on Unions?

Prop. 33: Changes to Auto Insurance

Prop. 34: The Death Penalty in California

Prop. 35: Ban on Human Trafficking and Sex Slavery

Prop. 36: Should Three Strikes Be Changed?

Prop. 37: The Fight Over GMO Labeling

Prop. 38: Molly Munger’s Tax Initiative for Education

Prop 39: How We Tax Multi-State Businesses

Please note: Forum did not produce a show on Proposition 40. You can find more information on that here.

Teachers at Angeles Mesa Elementary School in Los Angeles review voter information on Proposition 38 during a recent teacher union meeting. (Ana Tintocalis: KQED)

Education advocates in California say public schools will either sink or swim based on the outcome of two competing tax initiatives on the November ballot — Proposition 30 and Proposition 38. While both aim to protect students from more devastating budget cuts, they go about it in very different ways.

To better understand what is at stake for California’s public schools, I started off by visiting the headquarters of the Los Angeles Unified School District, the largest district in the state.

LAUSD has had to cut about half a billion dollars from its budget every year for the past five years because of the state’s money problems. Class sizes have swollen to more than 40 students; the school year was cut by five instructional days, and teachers have lost their jobs.

The person behind every difficult financial decision is Megan Reilly, the district’s Chief Financial Officer.

Her office is perched on the 26th floor of a skyscraper in downtown Los Angeles. Stacks of papers and financial reports are piled on and around her desk. Although she has a sweeping view of the city, she can’t take her eyes off of a series of large monthly calendars on the wall.

November 6th, Election Day, is circled, underlined and highlighted.

“I don’t think you can not think about it,” Reilly says. “We’re just in limbo because everything is critical about what is going to happen at the November election.”

Reilly views the election as a watershed moment for schools, because if voters do not approve Prop. 30 or Prop. 38, L.A. Unified — along with most other districts in California — will be pushed further down the road toward insolvency.

“I can’t face counselor ratios going even higher,” Reilly says. “I can’t face class sizes going even higher. It’s really hard for anyone to face the public saying, ‘I’m going to have to take more away from the schools.’ There’s nothing more to take.”

Reilly and other school administrators across the state believe Gov. Jerry Brown’s initiative, Prop. 30, offers the most immediate relief.

It would raise roughly $3 billion for public schools and community colleges by taxing the wealthiest Californians for seven years and it would increase the sales tax by a quarter-cent, a hike that everyone would have to pay. Overall, the measure would raise $6 billion for education and to balance the state budget.

However, should voters reject Prop. 30, schools will get hit with a $6 billion spending cut halfway through this school year. Many districts would be forced to lop off three full weeks of instruction.

“These are horrific cuts,” says Dan Schnur, director of the Jess Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.

Schnur says that given the constant cuts to public education, taxpayers may finally be ready for the first time in almost 20 years.to reach into their pockets to help schools.

“The biggest challenge for Governor Brown is convincing them that state government can be trusted to spend their tax dollars wisely and effectively.” The governor faces a trust issue because for the past five years, lawmakers have tapped into the state’s special pot of education funding to balance the budget.

The $3 billion raised annually by Prop. 30 would go back into that education pot, refilling it to the same level as before all of the cuts. This move would stabilize school funding and  eventually  even expand it. It would also free up existing general fund dollars for other needs because that is part of the governor’s larger plan to fix the state’s structural budget deficit.

One person who doesn’t trust the governor’s strategy is Molly Munger, the wealthy civil rights attorney who is bankrolling Proposition 38 — the competing education tax initiative. Munger’s name has been splashed across the news because she’s been criticizing the governor and Sacramento lawmakers for squandering education dollars.

“[Voters] are willing to pay the tax. But they insist, rightly, that the money not go to Sacramento, because they know if it goes there, bad things will happen to it,” Munger said in a recent interview with San Francisco’s KNBC Channel 3.

Unlike the governor’s initiative, Prop. 38 would tax the income of almost every Californian for 12 years. Under the initiative, public schools could receive as much as $10 billion the first year, which would be set apart from the state’s general fund. Some of the money would also go to preschools and to paying down bond debt.

Scott Kaplan has three children in the Redondo Beach Unified School District, just north of Long Beach. He’s backing Prop. 38 because he believes it would give communities more control of how the extra money is spent.

“It’s a huge amount of money for our district of 11 schools,” Kaplan said. “What we can do with those funds at the local level … is phenomenal.”

But the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office points out there is more to Prop. 38 than meets the eye. Because the money is earmarked for education, the initiative would do nothing to help California’s overall budget deficit. The measure also comes with a myriad of funding rules that school administrators say would be difficult to navigate.

And then there is the issue of timing. The Legislative Analyst states Prop. 38 tax dollars may not flow into schools until sometime during the next school year.

Erica Jones teaches 3rd grade at Angeles Mesa Elementary School near Inglewood. She backs the governor’s plan, Prop. 30, because she doesn’t want schools to get hit with that $6 billion spending cut should the initiative fail.

“I can’t wait for a great solution. We need help now,” Jones says.

Like many Californians, Jones feels the state’s wealthiest should kick in more to help the state and to get the school system back on track. “I’m all about shared responsibility,” she say,  “but there’s been a lot of responsibility put on the lower class and the middle class. So at this point we’re already struggling.”

Because the outcomes of these initiatives are so critical for education, a growing number of parents and educators are urging a yes vote on both.

However, only one can win — because Prop. 30 and 38 would increase the income tax on Californians. The state’s constitution views that as a conflict, so only the measure with the most votes can prevail.

And state taxpayer groups, of course, don’t want either one to succeed. They believe that giving more money to government simply encourages out-of-control spending. Here’s a chart of how much more Californians would pay under Prop 30 and Prop 38, respectively. The data is from the LAO; the dollar amounts represent the marginal tax rate for single-file taxpayers…

Listen to Ana Tintocalis’ story:

Update Oct 30: Here’s a great infographic comparing the two propositions, from EdSource. Click on the image to see the full graphic.

Gov. Jerry Brown speaks at L.A. City Hall on the state budget earlier this year. (Kevork Djansezian: Getty Images)

Gov. Jerry Brown has been blazing the campaign trail for Proposition 30 for several weeks now. It’s his big play to bring in new revenue, and he’s lined up a lot of support to pay for campaign ads that begin Wednesday. People and organizations have ponied up more than $41 million to back Prop. 30. Brown warns that without the added revenue, California schools would face something like financial Armageddon. That’s a message he served up at an August visit to San Francisco’s James Lick Middle School.

“If people say ‘no, we don’t want to tax the most rewarded and blessed among us, we want to close schools,’” he told the crowd, “okay, I’ll manage as best as we can. But I will tell you, and I’m telling you the truth, everything I’ve seen in my lifetime tells me that schools need more money.”

The “blessed people” Brown refers to are California’s highest earners. Under Prop. 30, they would see their income taxes go up for seven years. But it’s not just the wealthy who would be asked to chip in. Everyone who makes a purchase in California would have to pay an additional quarter-cent sales tax for four years. This year’s state’s budget assumes Prop. 30 will pass and billions of dollars of new revenue will flow into state coffers. But H.D. Palmer, spokesman for the State Department of Finance, says if voters reject the measure, significant cuts are coming — and fast.

“We still have an obligation to maintain spending close to the revenue we take in. So the legislature preapproved a package of so-called trigger cuts, reductions in state spending that would automatically take effect on January the first of next year,.” Palmer says.

Those trigger cuts would slice $5.4 billion from K-12 schools and community colleges this fiscal year — that’s equal to about three weeks of the school year. Palmer says it would also force cuts at California’s public universities.

“The CSU’s Board of Trustees approved a contingent 5 percent fee increase on their students at CSU if Proposition 30 does not pass. And that would be about $150 that they would have to pay.”

The Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates Prop. 30 would raise about $6 billion a year for the next four years. That would go into a special education fund, which would in turn free up money for the state to spend on other needs. Based on the way California calculates education funding, Prop. 30 is expected to give schools $2-3 billion more than they get now.

A lesser known piece of Prop. 30 is its impact on public safety. The measure would guarantee funding for counties that are managing state prisoners under the new realignment program, which is meant to ease crowding in state prisons.

Alameda County’s Santa Rita Jail — like jails across California — is getting realignment funds from the state. The money pays for things like probation officers, jail beds and security guards. At Santa Rita, the funds make it possible for prisoners to attend classes.

Santa Rita Jail has a growing number of so-called “local state prisoners,” and they stay far longer than typical county inmates, according to Lt. M. Ditzenberger, inmate services manager for the jail. She says that as the number of prisoners grows, funding from the state is crucial to keep services going.

“We don’t want [inmates] going back to the streets without a GED diploma, or some sort of employability training,” she says. “We want them to reintegrate back into the communities from which they came.”

Prop. 30′s supporters say that between school funding and public safety, there’s a lot riding on the measure. But critics have seized on recent events like the state parks scandal and the ballooning cost of high speed rail as proof that the state can’t be trusted with additional tax dollars. Jon Coupal is president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.

“We have a spending problem, not a revenue problem,” Coupal says. “And we misspend, we misallocate … like on a toy train that we cannot afford, and we should direct those funds towards California’s higher priorities, which are public safety and education.”

But Gov. Brown argues that without more revenue, there is no way to avoid painful cuts. Dan Schnur, Director of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California, says the governor’s argument might be persuasive.

“If you tell people pay higher taxes cause it’s a good thing and the nice thing and the generous thing to do, that’s a tough political message to sell, Schnur says. “Invariably, when these types of measures pass, it’s because people who don’t like paying higher taxes are concerned that the alternative is something even worse.”

Recent polls show the measure’s approval hovering just above 50 percent.

Listen to Erika Kelly’s story on The California Report:

Learn More:

Gov. Brown Makes A Case for Prop. 30

Here’s an edited transcript of their conversation:

Proposition 30 is backed by Governor Jerry Brown and would raise taxes to fund education. (Image: California Secretary of State)

SCOTT SHAFER: Let’s talk about the November election. Gov. Brown has a lot riding on the outcome, especially with Proposition 30, which would raise income taxes on the wealthy and sales taxes on all of us. The Governor got mixed news from two polls this week. Tell us what they said.

ANTHONY YORK: They said that just about half of voters are still in favor of the Governor’s plan, Proposition 30, and that there are increasing numbers of voters that are unsure. There’s still a lot of uncertainty in these last six to seven weeks of the campaign.

SHAFER: And at the same time, there’s Proposition 38, which would raise income taxes on everyone — mostly millionares — but everyone would take a little bit of a hit. Opinion polls show there is more of a split, a little bit less support, under 50 percent, for Proposition 38. But does that (Proposition 38) add to confusion for voters?

YORK: It does, and it’s also adding to the concern for the governor. Right now, I think the proponents of Proposition 30 view the Proposition 38 campaign as the major threat. That initiative is financed by Pasadena attorney Molly Munger, who has put about $25 million into the campaign so far. Their concern is that a strongly comparative campaign, comparing Proposition 30 to Proposition 38, could help sink Proposition 30, even if Proposition 38 fails as well.

If Prop 30 goes down, regardless of what happens to Prop 38, there will be about $5.5 billion in cuts, most to K-12 schools.

SHAFER: Just give us a quick sense of what happens if both Propositions 30 and 38 are defeated, and the extra revenue for education isn’t there.

YORK: The state budget that was signed by Brown back in June is contingent upon Proposition 30 passing. If Proposition 30 goes down, regardless of what happens to Proposition 38, there will be about $5.5 billion in cuts. Most of that will be to K-12 schools, about $5 billion. Another half a billion dollars — 250 million each from the UC and CSU systems, and a couple of other small cuts.

SHAFER: Another ballot measure, Proposition 32, would severely limit unions’ ability to use dues for campaign contributions. There’s a new Field Poll out Friday morning that shows it losing, with 44 percent opposed, 38 percent yes, and the rest undecided. What’s at stake for unions here?

YORK: Pretty much everything. This is very similar to proposals that California voters have rejected twice before, which would limit unions’ ability to automatically deduct dues from workers’ paychecks and use that money for political purposes. Unless they can be clever and find some sort of workaround, that has the potential to cripple unions, which give hundreds of millions of dollars to state initiatives and campaigns every cycle.

SHAFER: Overwhelmingly, of course, that money goes to Democrats and causes friendly to Democrats, so there’s a lot riding on that for the party as well. Before I let you go, there was a new law that took effect this week. It’s going to allow online voter registration. Tell us how it works and how it could affect the election or just generally politics in the state.

YORK: The popular opinion seems to be that more voters tends to mean more Democrats. Whether or not that bears out remains to be seen. Republicans have said that making this type of online voter registration could potentially lead to voter fraud. Democrats say it’s really just about trying to expand participation. We’ll see if the necessary protections are in place, and if it does have any impact. I think the bottom line is: will this have any impact in actually expanding voter participation?

Listen to Scott Shafer’s interview with Anthony York:

(Tina Barseghian/KQED)

Gov. Jerry Brown has been emphatic that if Proposition 30 fails in November, billions of dollars in cuts to public education are coming. He’s made that linkage so hard, in fact, that KXTV political editor and longtime Sacto observer John Myers once likened his Yes on 30 efforts to the famous National Lampoon cover in which the magazine threatened to shoot a dog if you didn’t buy the issue.

So is the public buying it?

On that front, a poll released Thursday shows mixed results.

Support for the measure is roughly the same since the last poll in July — 51 percent of voters in favor, 36 percent opposed. Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo told KQED’s Scott Shafer this morning that “They’re treading water, but at a rate that is not all that comfortable. But still there’s not a lot of evidence that their ‘yes’ side vote is deteriorating over time.”

However, an increasing number of undecided voters could turn out to be bad news for the measure. In July, 8 percent of voters were undecided; today’s poll shows 13 percent unsure.

“It’s our experience that if you don’t convince undecided voters, especially in the late going, to whatever it is you’re trying to get them to do, they tend to vote no more often than yes,”  said DiCamillo.

The Field Poll also shows another tax initiative, Prop. 38 — which would also finance education — at 41 percent of voters in favor, 44 percent opposed and 15 percent undecided. That’s up 8 percent since July.

The San Francisco Chronicle reports that DiCamillo says voters are beginning to assess the two competing measures:

“I think people are starting to hear campaign claims and they’re getting the fact that there are two different things,” he said. “If I’m for the schools, which one do I go with? I think that’s really what’s happening.”

He said the poll results are still an early measure of voters’ attitudes.

“Once voters get the actual ballot pamphlets from the registrar of voters … that’s really when the rubber is meeting the road. We’re still not there yet,” he said.

Another poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, found similar support for Prop. 30. It also found less than 50 percent support for Prop. 38.

If Prop. 30 fails, trigger cuts totaling $6 billion to education will kick in, with most of those coming out of K-12.

The governor has consistently pounded home the message that he has no other choice about what to do if Prop. 30 fails. When the Merc’s editorial board editor Barbara Marshall tried to question him on his tactics, she was cut off.

“Some critics feel as though you’ve skewed the trigger cuts to education to increase pressure to pass … ” Marshall started off.

“And that’s absolutely untrue!” Brown said, “This is the only place left.” He went on to detail still more cuts the state has already enacted — to In-Home Supportive Services, moving children from Healthy Families to Medi-Cal (“no one likes that” he said), fewer fish and game wardens, his list went on.

In his report this morning, Scott Shafer cited DiCamillo’s analysis that younger voters could be a driver for the education props. But while young voters, along with Latinos and African-Americans, are big backers of Prop. 30, they’re all less likely to vote. “And so the fate of both Props. 30 and 38 could rest on whether the presidential election motivates minorities and younger voters to cast their ballots,” Shafer said.