Exit Polling

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Young Voter Turnout Under — or Over — Estimated in California Polls?

They also have exit polling in France. This man did not appear to wish to answer. (Stephen Rees: Flickr)

They even have exit polling in France. This man did not appear to wish to answer. (Stephen Rees: Flickr)

This election, KQED has focused in part on young voters and their views on different issues.

So how much of a role did young voters play in Tuesday’s electoral outcomes? It’s hard to say exactly or — as it turns out — even approximately.

The respected Sacramento political newsletter The Nooner Wednesday pointed to an exit poll showing 18-to-29-year-old voters made up 27 percent of California voters in yesterday’s election. That’s compared to 22 percent in 2008.

Yet the highly regarded Field Poll had predicted on Monday that a maximum of 15 percent of these young voters would turn out.

So what gives? I called Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo, thinking that he would explain how pre-election predictions can run awry. Instead, he walked me through the exit poll industry in California — and what an interesting trip that was. Continue reading