Physician Ami Bera (D) won a hotly contested House seat over incumbent Dan Lungren (R). (Randy Payne/Flickr)

The election blog is coming to an end soon <sniff!> so this is the last update I’ll be posting on those stubbornly close races. Most of them were decided yesterday. There are still 1.7 million votes [PDF] to count statewide.

Jump for joy or read ‘em and weep. Counties have until December 7 to send final counts to the state. The secretary of state must certify the election by December 14.

Many of the close races we have kept an eye on are in Alameda County which finished counting votes yesterday. Here is an update on all the races we’ve been following:

Congressional Races

• Bera v. Lungren (7th Congressional District): Physician Ami Bera (D) defeated incumbent Dan Lungren (R). This was Bera’s second attempt to defeat Lungren; he received 51.5 percent of the vote. This race was considered one of the most critical across the country, and SuperPAC money flowed in.

• Bilbray v. Peters (52nd Congressional District): In this San Diego race, Democrat Scott Peters (D) flipped another Republican seat to the Democrat House tally. Peters beat incumbent Brian Bilbray with 50.7 percent of the vote.

Assembly Races

• Ong v. Quirk (District 20): In this Alameda County Dem-on-Dem race, Bill Quirk squeaked out victory over Filipina-American Jennifer Ong with 50.3 percent of the vote. That’s a 93 vote margin of victory out of more than 133,000 cast.
• Bloom v. Butler (District 50): In another Dem-on-Dem race where LA Weekly says all the rich, white, liberal people in Los Angeles live, Santa Monica Mayor Richard Bloom leads incumbent Betsy Butler with 50.1 percent of the votes. Los Angeles County Registrar of Voters is still counting ballots.
• Norby v. Quirk-Silva (newly drawn District 65): Republican Chris Norby conceded yesterday. Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) won with 51.6 percent of the vote in this Orange County race.

Ballot Measures

• Alameda County Measure B1: This race may have been the tightest of all. The transportation tax needed a two-thirds majority to win — that’s 66.67 percent. “Yes on B1″ earned 66.53 percent of the vote. That’s right — the “yes” vote lost by .14 percent of the vote. There you have it — every vote counts. If you’re wondering about recounts — the Alameda County Registrar of Voters says a party must wait until the vote is certified, request the recount within five days…  and pay for it themselves.

• Berkeley Measures S and T: “S” was known as “sit/lie,” and “T” changed zoning in West Berkeley. Measure S was defeated by 52.3 to 47.7 percent. Measure T was turned back by 50.51 percent of the voters.

Supervisors

• Crowley v. Yee: San Francisco County Supervisors District 7. The San Francisco Chronicle reports that Norman Yee defeated F.X. Crowley by 131 votes.
• Roberts v. Danon: San Diego County Supervisors. Steve Danon conceded the race to Dave Roberts on Thursday.

Ami Bera (D) is holding onto a tight, but growing, lead against Dan Lungren (R) in this Congressional race. (Photos: Republican Conference and Randy Bayne via Flickr)

The vote counting continues on. Latest from the secretary of state’s office is there are still a whopping 1.9 million votes [PDF] left to count. Counties have until December 7 to report their final results. The secretary of state will certify the election by December 14.

In particular, we’re tracking the likely Democratic supermajority in the state legislature.

In the current Congress, the 112th, Democrats hold 34 of 53 House seats. In the new Congress, the 113th, Democrats have definitively picked up two seats, a sure total of 36 seats. There are two other races too-close-to-call, but it’s looking like Democrats will win. That would bring California’s Democratic Congressional delegation to 38 seats out of 53.

Here is an update on the races we’re following:

Congressional Races

• Bera v. Lungren (7th Congressional District): Bera’s (D) lead over Lungren (R) continues to grow. He is now up by 3,824 votes, from 1,779 earlier in the week. (119,726 to 115,902). 

• Bilbray v. Peters (52nd Congressional District): In this San Diego race, Peters (D) also continues to extend his lead over Bilbray (R). On Friday, Peters led by 814 votes, early this week, it was 1,899. Now he leads by 2,660 votes.

Assembly Races

• Ong v. Quirk (District 20): In this Alameda County Dem-on-Dem race, Filipina American Ong trails Quirk by 1,215 votes.
• Bloom v. Butler (District 50): In this Dem-on-Dem race where all the rich, white, liberal people in Los Angeles live, Bloom’s lead has been see-sawing. Last Friday, he led by 218 votes, then it was down to 103 votes, and now it is back up to — remarkably — 218 votes.
• Norby v. Quirk-Silva (newly drawn District 65): Democrat Quirk-Silva is leading Republican Norby by 2,222 votes in this Orange County race.

Ballot Measures

• Alameda County Measure B1: This race is perhaps the tightest of all. The transportation tax needs 2/3 majority to win — that’s 66.67 percent. Right now, “yes on B1″ has 66.34 of the vote. That’s right — the “yes” vote trails by one-third of one percentage point. The counting continues. The Contra Costa Times is reporting that about 8,000 provisional ballots remain to be counted, and it will likely take through Friday to finish.
• Berkeley Measures S and T: “S” is “sit/lie” and “T” changes zoning in West Berkeley. “Yes on T” has been up and then down. It currently trails by 467 votes. “Yes on S” is trailing by 2.113 votes.

Supervisors

• Crowley v. Yee: San Francisco County Supervisors District 7. Yee has extended his lead to 1,387 votes.
• Roberts v. Danon: San Diego County Supervisors. Roberts also extended his lead over Danon to 2,688 votes.

Dan Lungren and Ami Bera are locked in a tighter than tight race. (Photos: Republican Conference and Randy Bayne via Flickr)

The number of too-close-to-call races is shrinking. Many counties continued to count votes over the holiday weekend. They have until December 7 to report their final results.The secretary of state will certify the election by December 14.

Of special note in these races is the make up of the California Congressional delegation. You’ve heard all about the Democratic supermajority in the state legislature.

At the national level, California Democrats have also gained ground. In the current Congress, the 112th, Democrats hold 34 of 53 House seats. In the new Congress, the 113th, Democrats have definitively picked up two seats, a sure total of 36 seats. There are two other races too-close-to-call, but it’s looking like Democrats will win. That would bring California’s Democratic Congressional delegation to 38 seats out of 53.

Here is an update on the races we’ve been following:

Congressional Races

• Bera v. Lungren (7th Congressional District): This race was not updated over the weekend. Bera (D) leads Lungren (R) by 1,779 votes. (105,245 to 103,466)

• Bilbray v. Peters (52nd Congressional District): Peters (D) has extended his lead over Bilbray (R) in this San Diego race. On Friday, Peters led by 814 votes; now he’s up by 1,899.
• Ruiz v. Bono Mack (36th Congressional District): ICYMI: Bono Mack conceded this race last Friday.

Assembly Races

• Bloom v. Butler (District 50): In this Dem-on-Dem race in Los Angeles County, Bloom has seen his narrow lead over Butler shrink from 218 votes on Friday to 103 votes early this morning.
• Norby v. Quirk-Silva (District 65): Democrat Quirk-Silva was leading Republican Norby by 607 votes on Friday. Official reports early this morning show Quirk-Silva now up by 2,222 votes.

Ballot Measures

• Alameda County Measure B1: The transportation tax is trailing by more than 4,000 votes. The Oakland Tribune reports the county counted 93,000 ballots — nearly all precinct and mail ballots — over the weekend. B1 has gained 65.79 percent of the vote; it needs two-thirds to pass. Thousands of provisional ballots have yet to be counted, but 4,200 votes is a lot of ground to make up.
• Berkeley Measures S and T: “S” is “sit/lie” and “T” changes zoning in West Berkeley. “Yes on T” had been picking up votes until Friday. But official reports last night show it behind by 472 votes. “Yes on S” is trailing by 1,417 votes.

Supervisors

• Crowley v. Yee: San Francisco County Supervisors District 7. Yee has extended his lead from 1,156 to 1,315 votes, as reported late yesterday afternoon.
• Roberts v. Danon: San Diego County Supervisors. Roberts also extended his lead over Danon from 1,898 votes to 2,641 votes.

San Francisco State University history lecturer Steve Leikin, left, talks with a student at a university election rally in October. Leikin was working with the campaign against Proposition 32. Photo by Ian Hill/KQED.

Leading California pollsters are raising questions about the accuracy of the Edison Research exit poll (viewable on the CNN website) in terms of how big a share young voters — and non-white voters — comprised of all those casting ballots in California in last Tuesday’s election.

What’s not in dispute: Young voters and “ethnic voters” (which is to say Latinos, Asian-Americans and African-Americans) played an influential role in California’s big Democratic turnout… helping to pass Proposition 30, Gov. Jerry Brown’s tax hike measure, and giving President Obama a 21 percentage point edge in the already-blue state.

As we reported last week, Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo cast doubt on the share of last Tuesday’s voters who were under 30. The Edison exit poll put 18-29 year olds at 27 percent of Californians who voted in this election. But 18-29 year olds make up just 16 percent of all registered voters in the state, said DiCamillo. And in 2008 exit polling showed this age group was 20 percent of California voters.

“I certainly believe that the story line of this elections the power of ethnic voters, and that younger voters turned out in high numbers,” DiCamillo said. “It has to do with the governor [specifically Gov. Brown's campaign for Prop. 30] and online registration [which went into effect in September and has so far been used mostly by young Californians]…. But I can’t believe the 27 percent. That’s a huge number. To move the needle one full percentage point is a big thing, to move it seven or eight points is beyond credibility.”

And the incredulity extends to the Edison exit poll’s reported share of voters who are not white.

• DiCamillo and others note that of all the registered voters in California, 5.5 percent are black, and they typically turn out roughly in their population proportion. But according to the exit poll, they are 8 percent of Tuesday’s voters.
• Asian Americans make up an estimated 10 percent of the state’s registered voters. The exit poll put their share of the turnout at 11 percent.
• And Latinos are 23 percent of registered voters in California. are Latino. The exit poll showed them making up 22 percent of Californians who voted this election. But Latinos are younger and are less likely to have gone to college, on average, than the overall population, while older, better educated people historically vote at higher rates. “So even with good turnout, I would expect they would be a couple of points below their total registration,” observed Di Camillo.

Other political observers concur that the exit poll may not have gotten a perfectly accurate picture of who voted in California. “Because of early voting, exit polls no longer quantify the electorate accurately,” said Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin. “I would use exit polling for how people voted, not quantifying what the electorate looks like.”

Sacramento blogger Scott Lay has come up with his own “blending” of pre-election Field Poll turnout predictions and Edison exit polling to estimate actual turnout as somewhere in between the two.

Over the next couple of months, pollsters, scholars and political analysts will be digging in deeper: looking at turnout information from the Census Bureau’s November Current Population Survey, as well as the number crunching of private campaign consulting firms such as Political Data Inc. — to get a more accurate sense of the shape of the electorate: who turned out and in what proportion.

In the absence of precise figures, plain old political common sense prevailed.

“It was a very good night for Democrats,” said Mark Baldassare, president and chief pollster at the Public Policy Institute of California. “It just suggests to me that you must have had this high turnout of Latinos and younger voters, and a very poor showing among Republicans.”

“How did California Democrats win a supermajority in the legislature?” Tulchin asked. “The Obama coalition of young voters, Latinos, Asian Americans, African Americans, and throw in some white liberals: It gave Obama a big margin. His win exceeded what polling showed would happen. It’s the same with Prop. 30…. And in California, a young voter is overwhelmingly Latino or Asian.”

UC Irvine Political Science Professor Louis DeSipio wondered why the turnout of young people in the state did appear to get a substantial boost, while in the country as a whole it did not.

“Was there something unique in California?” asked De Sipio. “There’s no particular reason that the presidential race would mobilize more young people in a noncompetitive state like California. Maybe people turned out for some tight Congressional races, but the unique issue in California was the mobilization around Prop. 30. One big effect [if the measure failed] was to diminish funding for community colleges, the UCs and the CSUs. There was a message coming from college administrations and unions organizing, and young people felt it.”

DiCamillo was startled to see that white voters in California dropped to just 55 percent of all who voted, according to the Edison exit poll. “I’ve never seen an election in California below 60 percent white,” he said. “It jumps out at me. Wow. I don’t think we’re that far down the road yet. I think it’s coming, but I don’t think we’re there yet.”

Whether young people and non-white voters exceeded turnout expectations in California this year, the Golden State is pointing the direction for where the rest of the country is headed, observers say.

And Di Camillo gets the last word: “The main message of this election is that the ethnic vote really powered the Obama victory in California, it really powered the Prop 30 vote on the yes side. And the same thing goes with the youth vote. It was the youth vote that turned out in force that probably made the difference on Prop. 30.”

Dan Lungren and Ami Bera are locked in a tighter than tight race. (Photos: Republican Conference and Randy Bayne via Flickr)

Sit down and take a deep breath. The updated Secretary of State’s numbers show more than three million votes left to count.

If you’ve been following the handful of too-close-to-call races across the state, you’ll likely be waiting for a few days.

Counties have until December 7 to report their final results.The secretary of state will certify the election by December 14.

Here are the races still too close to call:

Congressional Races

• Bera v. Lungren (7th Congressional District): Bera’s (D) lead is slim, but keeps edging up. Yesterday, he led Lungren (R) by 182 votes. Today, with an additional 40,000 votes counted, he’s up by 1,779. (105,245 to 103,466)

• Bilbray v. Peters (52nd Congressional District): Peters (D) leads Bilbray (R) by 814 votes in this San Diego race.
• Ruiz v. Bono Mack (36th Congressional District): Ruiz (D) leads by 4,679, and local media in the Inland Empire have called the race for him. But Bono Mack (R) has yet to concede. UPDATE: Bono Mack conceded the race on Friday.

Assembly Races

• Bloom v. Butler (District 50): In this Dem-on-Dem race in Los Angeles County, Bloom leads Butler by 218 votes.
• Norby v. Quirk-Silva (District 65): Democrat Quirk-Silva is leading Republican Norby by 607 votes.

Ballot Measures

• Alameda County Measure B1 (Transportation): About one percentage point shy of the two-thirds needed for passage, with roughly 100,000 mail/provisional ballots still to count. Could be “several days” before we know the results, the Alameda County Registrar of Voters told the Chronicle.
• Berkeley Measures S and T: “S” is “sit/lie” and “T” changes zoning in West Berkeley. “Yes on T” has slowly been gaining ground since election night and now leads by five votes (four more votes since yesterday). “Yes on S” is trailing by two percentage points, but has also been gaining since election night. The counting continues.

Supervisors

• Crowley v. Yee: San Francisco County Supervisors District 7. Counting votes could take until next week. Yee leads Crowley 1,156.
• Roberts v. Danon: San Diego County Supervisors. Roberts leads Danon by 1,898 votes.

Other too-close-to-call races or measures we should know about? Tell us in the comments section!

(You’ve probably seen the president’s celebratory “Four More Years” photo everywhere on Facebook and Twitter. With more than four million “Likes,” it’s Facebook’s most-Liked photo ever. It’s been re-tweeted more than 790,000 times, the most RTs ever.)

Of course, President Obama was a social media star even before he was re-elected, and he’ll probably continue to generate a flood of Likes and RTs through the rest of his term. The Oxford Internet Institute found that the president would have defeated Mitt Romney handily if the election had been based on Twitter references. And on Thursday, the word “Obama” had been used in more than one million Tweets, according to the social search website Topsy.  Also trending Thursday on Twitter in the U.S. – “Karl Rove” and “GOP.” But not really in a good way.

But since the election, another term that’s probably more of a concern to the president has started to make its way onto social media:

“Fiscal cliff.“

It’s a reference to the government’s possible economic implosion at the end of the year, and it has been used nearly 63,000 times on Twitter in the last day or so. Several of the references have come from news organizations and conservative pundits in reference to yesterday’s stock market tumble. But if you search for “Obama” on Twitter right now, you’ll also see Tweets like these:

How long before someone draws a political cartoon of Obama & Boehner driving in a convertible towards a cliff a la Thelma & Louise? #america

— ajk (@mister_kehl) November 8, 2012

In all seriousness, yay for Obama but that fiscal cliff needs resolution in days, not weeks or months. Lame duck nothin, America needs it

— Chike Amajoyi (@Chike43) November 8, 2012

The impact of social media on politics and government is still a matter of debate, but a healthy percentage of Americans are expressing their opinions there, to be sure. According to numbers from the Census and the Pew Internet and American Life Project, about 131 million American adults use social media. Trends show that those numbers most likely will continue to grow.

As of 9 a.m. PT today, more than 61 million votes cast Tuesday had been counted for President Obama. He received 69 million votes in 2008.

Based on what’s being said right now on Twitter and Facebook, President Obama most likely can rest assured that the social media constituency has his back. At least until “fiscal cliff” passes “Justin Bieber” in searches….

I try to picture myself when I was your age — and I first moved to Chicago at the age of 25 –and I had this vague inkling about making a difference. I didn’t really know how to do it. I didn’t have the structure. There wasn’t a presidential campaign at the time I could attach myself too. Ronald Reagan had just been re-elected and was incredibly popular.

So I came to Chicago, knowing that somehow I wanted to make sure that my life attached itself to helping kids get a great education, or helping people live in poverty get decent jobs, to be able to have work dignity, to make sure that people didn’t have to go to the emergency room to get health care.

And I ended up being a community organizer on the south side of Chicago. A group of churches were willing to hire me. I didn’t know at all what I was doing.

The work that I did in those communities changed me much more than I changed the communities. Because it taught me the hopes and aspirations and the grit and the resilience of ordinary people. And it taught me the fact that under the surface differences, we all have common hopes, and we all have common dreams. It taught me something about how I handled disappointment and what it meant to work hard on a common endeavor. I grew up. I became a man during that process.

So when I come here and I look at all of you, what comes to mind is not that you guys actually remind me of myself. It’s the fact that you are so much better than I was, in so many ways. You’re smarter, and you’re better organized. You’re more effective.

So I’m absolutely confident that all of you are going to do just amazing things in your lives. What Bobby Kennedy called “the ripples of hope” that come out when you throw a stone in a lake, that’s going to be you.

Wherever you guys end up … whether you’re in the private sector or not for profit, or some of you decide to go into public service, you’re just gonna do great things. That’s why even before last night’s results, I felt that the work that I had done in running for office (chokes up) had come full circle. Because what you guys had done means that the work I’m doing is important. And I’m really proud of that. I’m really proud of all of you. (Starts to tear up and pauses, then applause)

What you guys accomplished, it will go down in the annals of history. People will read about it, and people will marvel about it, but the most important thing you need to know is your journey’s just beginning, you’re just starting. And whatever good we do over the next four years will pale in comparison to what you guys end up accomplishing for years and years to come. That’s been my source of hope. That’s why during the last four years, when people ask me “how do you put up with this or that or the frustration of Washington,” I just think about what you guys are gonna do. And that’s the source of my hope, the source of my strength and inspiration. And I know that you guys won’t disappoint me, because I’ve already seen who you guys are. And you all are just remarkable people, and you’ve lifted me up each and every step of the way. (The president walked off the podium, wiping his eyes.)

In this 2008 photo, workers sort California mail in ballots. (Justin Sullivan: Getty Images)

With estimates that for the first time vote-by-mail will exceed in-person voting in California, county voting officials are presumably working hard to get all votes counted. Counties are required to report their final results by December 7, and the secretary of state will certify the election by December 14.

In the meantime well over a million mail and provisional ballots are still being counted statewide.

Here are the races still too close to call:

Congressional Races

• Bera v. Lungren (7th Congressional District): The political newsletter The Nooner reports that Bera is ahead by 182 votes with 193,000 uncounted ballots. Next update is Friday, 3pm.
• Bilbray v. Peters (52nd Congressional District): Only a few hundred votes separate the San Diego candidates.
• Ruiz v. Bono Mack (36th Congressional District): Ruiz is ahead, and local media have called the race for him. But Bono Mack has yet to concede.

Assembly Races

• Bloom v. Butler (District 50): In Los Angeles County, only a few hundred votes separate the two.
• Norby v. Quirk-Silva (District 65): Several hundred votes separate the candidates in Orange County.

Ballot Measures

• Alameda County Measure B1 (Transportation): About one percentage point shy of the two-thirds needed for passage, with roughly 100,000 mail/provisional ballots still to count. Could be “several days” before we know the results, the Alameda County Registrar of Voters told the Chronicle.
• Berkeley Measures S and T: “S” is “sit/lie” and “T” changes zoning in West Berkeley. The most-recent numbers show yes on T trailing by only 26 votes. S is not quite as close. UPDATE, 7am, Friday, November 9: “Yes on T” has pulled ahead by one vote. The counting continues.

Supervisors

• Crowley v. Yee: San Francisco County Supervisors District Seven. Counting votes could take until next week.
• Roberts v. Danon: San Diego County Supervisors

Other too-close-to-call races or measures we should know about? Tell us in the comments section!

Mark Takano (D), newly elected representative from the 41st Congressional District in the Inland Empire. (MarkTakano.com)

California’s Congressional delegation will include about a dozen new faces next year. Redistricting and the state’s “Top Two” primary system led to an unusual number of competitive races, as well as a few upsets — and Democrats are the beneficiaries.

Of the state’s 53 Congressional districts, 34 are currently represented by Democrats. With Tuesday’s voting, at least one more seat will turn blue, while three other races still appear too close to call.

For starters, parts of the Inland Empire are looking a lot more purple — with areas once seen as Republican strongholds giving way to a wave of Democratic newcomers.

Early on election night, Mark Takano wasn’t yet ready to claim victory as returns showed him ahead of his Republican opponent in the newly drawn 41st Congressional District. “So let’s be patient,” he said, “luxuriate in the feeling we have now and be hopeful that change has come to Riverside.” But within hours it was clear that Takano, currently a Riverside Community College board trustee, had become the first openly gay Asian American elected to Congress. He believes that his success was partly driven by a wave of younger voters he says are more accepting of gay candidates. Robert Melsh supported Takano in two prior unsuccessful Congressional bids in the early 1990’s — when opponents circulated anti-gay campaign flyers. That didn’t happen this time.

“That shows you that not only is Riverside getting ‘blue’ politically, but it’s growing up. Four years from now it will be more majority Hispanic, it’ll be diversified, and Republicans will be running for cover,” says Melsh.

In what’s shaping up to be one of the biggest upsets, political first-timer Democrat Raul Ruiz appears to have defeated veteran GOP Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack of Palm Springs. The county registrar’s office still has thousands of vote-by-mail ballots to tally. But registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a narrow majority in the newly drawn 36^th District. It’s the first time Bono Mack sought re-election in a district that was not more heavily weighted toward Republicans.

The congresswoman was also hurt by a comment she made referring to the city of Coachella as a “third world toilet.” The Coachella Valley is home to a large number of Latinos — who make up about a third of the district’s voters. During an election night interview with the Palm Springs Desert Sun, Bono Mack all but conceded the race with thousands of votes left to tally. “Historically the trend would say that the numbers will continue to go the way they are going, and that he [Ruiz] will win,” she said.

Republicans held ground in other parts of the Inland Empire, including the 31^st Congressional District which includes San Bernardino. But by toppling the GOP in several other key races, Democrats might now see the region as a winnable battleground for future state and national candidates.

They even have exit polling in France. This man did not appear to wish to answer. (Stephen Rees: Flickr)

This election, KQED has focused in part on young voters and their views on different issues.

So how much of a role did young voters play in Tuesday’s electoral outcomes? It’s hard to say exactly or — as it turns out — even approximately.

The respected Sacramento political newsletter The Nooner Wednesday pointed to an exit poll showing 18-to-29-year-old voters made up 27 percent of California voters in yesterday’s election. That’s compared to 22 percent in 2008.

Yet the highly regarded Field Poll had predicted on Monday that a maximum of 15 percent of these young voters would turn out.

So what gives? I called Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo, thinking that he would explain how pre-election predictions can run awry. Instead, he walked me through the exit poll industry in California — and what an interesting trip that was.

He explained that there’s one exit poll in California, and it’s used by all the major networks. DiCamillo, too, has used it widely in past years. But he told me had just gotten through reviewing the data set, and he “doesn’t have confidence” in the poll’s findings this year.

Perhaps the easiest discrepancy to grasp is this one: Proposition 30, the governor’s education tax initiative, passed in Los Angeles County by 20 points, but DiCamillo says the exit poll’s final estimates showed Prop. 30 winning LA County by only 6 points.

In an email to KQED Election Editor Tyche Hendricks, DiCamillo added the following:

Another finding that I find implausible is their estimate that just 55% of the state’s voters in this election were white non-Hispanic. This would be a steep decline from previous CA presidential elections, and from what most pre-election polls were showing. They also show Latino voters supporting Prop. 30 by just 2 points (51% to 49%), which is less than its statewide margin. Every pre-election poll that I’ve seen had Latinos on the yes side by margins of two to one or greater.

DiCamillo stressed to me that his preference is “not to pick fights with his fellow pollsters.” But he’s looked carefully at the exit poll data in many ways, he told me, and concluded, “This is not California.”

Mid-afternoon Wednesday, I called Edison Media Research, which conducted the exit poll. They’re in New Jersey and I was told the main contact for the California exit poll was not in. As if Hurricane Sandy wasn’t bad enough — now it’s snowing there.

DiCamillo was up front about the possible flaws of the Field Poll’s pre-election predictions on young voter turnout. “I don’t want to say ours is definitive,” he said. Online registration was implemented in September, pollsters are not able to sample the newly registered. Almost half of the more than 700,000 people who registered online were young voters.

It’s “reasonable to conclude,” DiCamillo promptly said, that the Field Poll underestimated the young vote, and those young voters may have contributed to the passage of Proposition 30.

So when can we expect definitive information? Not anytime soon.

All that California voters have to provide when they register is name, address, date of birth and political party (or “no party preference”). “Those four things are probably retrievable,” DeCamillo says, “but they won’t be for months.”

Related:

• Pollster: Undercounted Cellphone Users Hide Obama’s Lead (Mother Jones)