November 1, 2012 | 8:24 AM | By

Poll Shows Support For Brown Tax Measure Falls Below 50%; Undecideds Now the Key

FILED UNDER: Ballot Measures, Nov. 6, 2012, Prop 30

A new Field Poll out today shows that Governor Brown’s tax increase measure, Proposition 30, has dropped below the 50 percent it needs to pass. The poll shows 48 percent of voters in support and 38 percent opposed, with 14 percent undecided.

Teachers at Angeles Mesa Elementary School in Los Angeles review voter information on Proposition 38 during a recent teacher union meeting. (Ana Tintocalis: KQED)

Teachers at Angeles Mesa Elementary School in Los Angeles review voter information on Proposition 38 during a teacher union meeting. (Ana Tintocalis/KQED)

Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo says Proposition 38, a rival tax measure put on the ballot by education advocate Molly Munger, has drawn off some of Prop 30′s support. “Prop 38 is pulling some voters away from 30,” he told Capital Public Radio’s Ben Adler. “We’re measuring it at 9 percent.” Despite that switch, support for Prop 38 was measured at just 34 percent, down 12 percent from July.

DiCamillo said there is still hope for Brown’s measure, as undecided voters could be more likely to vote yes in the end. DiCamillo cited the survey’s finding that a majority of undecideds approve of the governor’s job performance and are concerned about potential budget cuts if the measure fails.

“So all these things indicate to me that the governor’s measure is in fairly decent shape,” DiCamillo said.

More on Prop 30 vs Prop 38….

  • djconnel

    The vote-splitting problem is a fundamental issue with proposition-based legislation. Our representatives are elected to make these hard decisions. To push the onus onto voters, who lack time and knowledge to analyze complex legislation, is a cop-out.

    • Yongho Kim

      In principle, that’s correct and I agree. However for this to happen we need to repeal Proposition 13 (1978) first, so that there is no longer a 2/3 requirement for passing tax legislation. Republicans in the current California Legislature would never vote on a tax increase with a Democratic governor, holding hostage the entire state budget in the process.

      We should first vote yes on Prop 30 this year and this is an urgent issue and attempt longer term solutions as yours over time as well.

  • abc

    First of all why do we need prop 30. As of now CA ranks 4th (out of 50 states) in taxation level. Still ranks in bottom 5 in the services provided to tax payers. Where is all the money going? First fill those black holes where the money is being wasted.

    Second, do you know why public unions are funding all those yes ads for prop 30. It is indirect bailout of public union pensions and salaries.

    Third, the money from prop 30 wont improve any thing for education. It just will vanish into public unions. The special fund is a lie. The special fund is PART of general fund. The money from the special fund will substitute the money that goes to pensions. It is indirect bailout of pensions. That is the reason unions are pushing for prop 30.

    Prop 30 is written by Sacramento politicians for public unions. It has nothing to do with education or children as the yes ads indicate.

  • abc

    Prop 30 is back door bailout of public union salaries and pensions. That is the reason Unions are funding all the “yes” commercials for prop 30. Is a proposition BY Sacramento politicians FOR public unions. Pure and simple.

    It has nothing to do education or schools. Remember California is in top 5 of all states in amount taxation. Yet bottom 5 in the services provided for the Tax payers. All the tax money goes to fund public unions.

    Prop 98 (1988) mandates that 39% state budget to k-12. Even with almost 40% of budget going to k-12 schools the ACTUAL services provided to students are meager. Even if prop 30 passes you wont see any improvement services because it just goes to fund public unions. Students wont see any improvement.

    What is worse is media fronts like KQED have not journalistic integrity. They are never on the side of hard working productive people. The productive population who have to fund their own retirement through 401ks and most probably have to work until fall down and collapse are like pawns in the games played by public unions and KQED.

    Shame on Gov Brown to threaten public instead of taking on public unions.

    I urge fellow Californians not to fall for their propaganda and vote NO on prop 30.

  • GullibleCalifornian

    Why do public unions and politicians support prop 30 instead of prop 38? Because prop 30 money goes to public union pensions! That is the secret KQED wont tell you.

  • GullibleCalifornian

    Lies from prop 30 proponents which KQED don’t want you to know.

    http://www.sacbee.com/2012/10/04/4880132/ad-watch-prop-30-ad-misleads-on.html