Quick Link: Calculating the Odds of Extreme Weather

How does the probability of an extreme weather event change in a warmer world?

Scientists are loathe to directly link any given weather event to climate change — climate change attribution is a young science, and there are a lot of variables. But they have made some progress. Researchers at NOAA and UK Met Offices examined extreme weather events in 2011, and were able to narrow down how likely some of those events are to occur again.

One finding: La Niña-related heatwaves like the Texas drought of 2011, which was the hottest and driest year on record for the state, are 20 times more likely to happen during La Niña years now than they were 50 years ago.


How much of the recent hot weather can be attributed to global warming? Scientists will no doubt dig into the data and grapple with that question in the months to come. They have already taken a stab at that question regarding some of last year’s extreme weather events, like the drought in Texas.

Read more at: www.npr.org

  • Julie Jones

    Well, the chem trail spraying (weather modification, solar radiation management, con trails from the spray planes) has stopped for the past couple of weeks.  Is anyone including the possibility that the aerosol sprays have DAMAGED THE WEATHER PATTERNS.  A lot of unintended consequences — there is a convention to examine this matter in LA on August 16-18 – call 805-477-8887 for info.  And see new film, “Why in the World are They Spraying?”