Quick Link: Calculating the Odds of Extreme Weather
How does the probability of an extreme weather event change in a warmer world?
Scientists are loathe to directly link any given weather event to climate change — climate change attribution is a young science, and there are a lot of variables. But they have made some progress. Researchers at NOAA and UK Met Offices examined extreme weather events in 2011, and were able to narrow down how likely some of those events are to occur again.
One finding: La Niña-related heatwaves like the Texas drought of 2011, which was the hottest and driest year on record for the state, are 20 times more likely to happen during La Niña years now than they were 50 years ago.
How much of the recent hot weather can be attributed to global warming? Scientists will no doubt dig into the data and grapple with that question in the months to come. They have already taken a stab at that question regarding some of last year’s extreme weather events, like the drought in Texas.
Read more at: www.npr.org
About the author
Molly Samuel joined KQED as an intern in 2007, and since then has worked here as a reporter, producer, director and blogger. Before becoming KQED Science’s Multimedia Producer, she was a producer for Climate Watch. Molly has also reported for NPR, KALW and High Country News, and has produced audio stories for The Encyclopedia of Life and the Oakland Museum of California. She was a fellow with the Middlebury Fellowships in Environmental Journalism and a journalist-in-residence at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center. Molly has a degree in Ancient Greek from Oberlin College and is a co-founder of the record label True Panther Sounds. View all posts by Molly Samuel →
