Quick Link: Calculating the Odds of Extreme Weather
How does the probability of an extreme weather event change in a warmer world?
Scientists are loathe to directly link any given weather event to climate change — climate change attribution is a young science, and there are a lot of variables. But they have made some progress. Researchers at NOAA and UK Met Offices examined extreme weather events in 2011, and were able to narrow down how likely some of those events are to occur again.
One finding: La Niña-related heatwaves like the Texas drought of 2011, which was the hottest and driest year on record for the state, are 20 times more likely to happen during La Niña years now than they were 50 years ago.