IPCC Scientist: A "Vicious Cycle" of Carbon Spikes
For a while now, we've been hearing that greenhouse gas emissions are still off the charts, which is to say increasing beyond the U.N.'s worst-case scenario for global warming. Now a Stanford researcher has laid out some specific scenarios–and they're not pretty.
Chris Field, who is working on the next IPCC report, said "There is a real risk that human-caused climate change will accelerate the release of carbon dioxide from forest and tundra ecosystems, which have been storing a lot of carbon for thousands of years."
Field, a professor of biology and of environmental Earth system science at Stanford, and a senior fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, issued a warning for members of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Chicago today: "We don't want to cross a critical threshold where this massive release of carbon starts to run on autopilot."
And yet, that would appear to be path that we're on. As Field told the AAAS symposium, "We now have data showing that from 2000 to 2007, greenhouse gas emissions increased far more rapidly than we expected, primarily because developing countries, like China and India, saw a huge upsurge in electric power generation, almost all of it based on coal."
So what would some of the consequences be? "Tropical forests are essentially inflammable," Field said. "You couldn't get a fire to burn there if you tried. But if they dry out just a little bit, the result can be very large and destructive wildfires. It is increasingly clear that as you produce a warmer world, lots of forested areas that had been acting as carbon sinks could be converted to carbon sources. Essentially we could see a forest-carbon feedback that acts like a foot on the accelerator pedal for atmospheric CO2."
The loss of functioning forests worldwide is already estimated to account for about 20% of carbon emissions. But field also warns of another carbon burst from decomposed plants that have been locked in permafrost for tens of thousands of years. As if all that weren't plenty, Field says the accelerated forest destruction and melting permafrost could combine to create a "vicious cycle" of accelerated carbon emissions.
Field sums up by saying: "We now know that, without effective action, climate change is going to be larger and more difficult to deal with than we thought."
The Chicago symposium is being held to address new developments since the last IPCC interim report, in 2007. A formal update is due out next year. Field is co-chair of the IPCC's Working Group 2, which is assessing the impacts of climate change on social, economic and natural systems.
Sierra Snowpack Levels Below Normal
Yes, heavy snow closed Interstate 80 for several hours on Christmas, and true, four feet of snow fell on North Lake Tahoe in the days since then. But this season's first snow survey reveals that California still has far to go to make up for two years of drought. Teams from the Department of Water Resources (DWR) found that statewide the water content of the Sierra snowpack is still only 3/4 of where it should be this time of year.
Conducted today by teams across the state, the survey revealed snow water levels at 54% of normal for the northern Sierra, 76% for the central Sierra, and 99% for the southern Sierra.
Today's numbers are an improvement over this time last year, when the water content for snow in the Sierra statewide was just 60% of normal, but they are not high enough, say DWR officials.
After two years of drought and last year's driest spring on record, reservoirs across the state are far below normal levels. Lake Oroville, which we wrote about in the fall, contains less than half the amount of water that's normal for this date.
The Sierra is going to have to see a lot more snow this winter if Californians want to avoid water restrictions and another big fire season come next summer.
Craig Miller reported on the snow survey on this morning's broadcast of The California Report.
Use the player below to hear more about the current state of California's water supply from Department of Water Resources Senior Meterologist Elissa Lynn.
Climate Coverage: From Drywall to Rubber Ducks
You just never know where the next climate story will come from.
This week on KQED's Quest Radio, Marjorie Sun reports on how some of the most common building materials are among the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Manufacturing your most basic buttcrack essentials like drywall, steel and cement requires vast amounts of energy. Now, several Silicon Valley start-ups are looking for cleaner solutions and some of their efforts are drawing major venture capital.
Then from the "concrete" to the…well, how would you describe this? I'm not sure but it's one of my favorite climate experiments of the year: NASA Deploys Rubber Ducks for Cryosphere Clues. Scientists from California's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena are behind this BBC story that probably should've been posted on April 1st.
We're all pulling for these rubberized cryonauts, hoping they don't end up in an endless swirl as part of the giant Pacific plastic trash vortex that David Gorn reported on in August.
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