Monthly Archives: October 2008

October 28, 2008 | 12:03 PM | By

The Other Greenhouse Gases

Carbon dioxide is the 900-pound gorilla of greenhouse gases. There’s little doubt of that, whether you’re tracking news coverage or policy measures.

But lately, some of the other beasts are getting more scrutiny. Reuters published a story last week that focused on nitrogen triflouride, a by-product of semiconductor manufacturing and a key ingredient in flat-screen TVs.

Researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego have been tracking the gas, which goes by the shorthand NF3, and concluded that the atmospheric load of the stuff is growing at 11% a year. What makes that a little scary is that NF3 is said to be 17,000 times more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas, though over all it’s still a much smaller factor in global warming.

At the same time, Kirk Smith of UC Berkeley is taking his show on the road, with a lecture he calls “CO2 on Steroids.” It’s about the role that methane plays in the warming equation and what he believes are the opportunities to make relatively fast headway against global warming by attacking methane emissions. Smith will present his findings at the state air board’s Chair’s seminar series in Sacramento. You can watch a webcast of his lecture on November 10.

I interviewed Smith for an upcoming Climate Watch radio feature on the methane issue in California. Listen for it on The California Report in mid-November.

FILED UNDER: Government & Business, Agriculture, Air, GHG, methane, Policy, UC Berkeley
October 23, 2008 | 2:52 PM | By

A Long, Dry Season

In California, the term “fire season” is tossed around with a certain amount of vagueness, mainly because unlike, say “deer season,” there are no hard and fast rules for when it begins and ends. But like, for instance, “Holiday Season,” it does seem to be getting longer and more tedious.

For budgeting purposes, CalFire reckons it to be May 15 to November 15. As a practical matter, we don’t really expect the first wildfire to break out on May 15–except this year it did. The Summit Fire in the Santa Cruz Mountains flamed up about a month before people really expect to start seeing smoke in the air. It was the start of what could be a record-breaking season.

Last year’s fire season was the worst in a decade; 1.5 million acres burned. This year we’re on track to surpass that.  Climatologists say: Get used to it. According to a 2005 report from the California Climate Change Center, using warming scenarios from the IPCC:

If average statewide temperatures rise to the medium warming range (5.5 to 8°F), the risk of large wildfires in California is expected to increase about 20 percent by mid-century and 50 percent by the end of the century. This is almost twice the wildfire increase expected if temperatures are kept within the lower warming range.
Along with temperature, wildfires are determined by a variety of factors, including precipitation. Because of this, future wildfire risk throughout the state will not be
uniform. For example, a hotter, drier climate could increase the flammability of vegetation in northern California and promote up to a 90 percent increase in large wildfires by the end of the century. A hotter, wetter climate would also lead to an increase in wildfires in northern California, but to a lesser extent—about a 40 percent increase by century’s end.

Phyllis Banducci, an El Dorado County forester for CalFire, says that normally they would start “ramping down” (laying off seasonal firefighters and so forth) in the north state around mid-October but this year CalFire has delayed winding things down until November 3rd.

Recently I took a walking tour through some Sierra burn sites with Crawford Tuttle, Chief Deputy Director at CalFire. You can hear excerpts from that and comments on the climate connection from UC Merced researcher Tony Westerling on The California Report, starting Friday morning.

You can watch a video of that walk by clicking on the viewer below. The first location is Sierra Springs. The second walk was on Icehouse Ridge, above Highway 50. Both locations are in El Dorado County.

We’ve also set up a spot where you can share your own fire photos and experiences.

FILED UNDER: Air, Alpine, CalFire, Wildfire
October 21, 2008 | 2:06 PM | By

Double Dose of Climate Calamity TV

PBS will air its long awaited climate documentary “Heat” tonight, as part of its Frontline series. The two-hour program rolls at 9 p.m. on KQED and most other PBS stations.

My companion program, “California Heat” also premieres tonight as part of the Viewfinder documentary series on KVIE Public Television in Sacramento. This show airs at 7 p.m., and sets the stage for Frontline by examining the almost certain effects on California–and interior California in particular.

Frontline takes it from there, examining our readiness as a nation and as a global community, to take on the challenge.

FILED UNDER: Ecosystems, interior, PBS
October 21, 2008 | 12:39 PM | By

400,000 Jobs or Bust. Or Both.

There’s an interesting juxtaposition nowadays between the grim economic/public funding forecasts and the eye-popping estimates of job growth in the “green-collar” economy…at least in the ever-optimistic Golden State.

Given the current meltdown in the capital markets, there is understandable fear that investment in renewable energy and carbon-reducing technology will be nipped in the bud. Recent articles in the New York Times and Times of London reflect the new angst.

But against this backdrop of doom, predictions are popping out all over about the coming economic boom, if we can somehow stay the course toward a low-carbon economy. This week number-crunchers at UC Berkeley issued the bold declaration that through energy efficiency alone, California can add 403,000 new jobs. David Roland-Holst and his colleagues assume a scant 1% annual improvement in overall energy efficiency, in order to get there. And by the way, they say, you can pencil an extra $76 billion in gross state product into the bargain. We’ll be spending so much less to light, heat, cool, and move us around, that it will free up billions of dollars and an outbreak of general prosperity will ensue. Sound like Pollyanna gone wild? The authors say we’ve done it before.

A recent economic analysis by the California Air Resources Board predicted that full implementation of the sweeping Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (CA AB-32) would add 100,000 jobs by 2020. The astute reader might wonder how, since energy efficiency is just one facet of AB-32, can the Berkeley number be so much higher. The answer, according to Roland-Holst, is that the Air Board estimate is “innovation-neutral.” In other words, it assumes that nothing new is invented on the efficiency front.

Hear more details as KQED’s Peter Jon Shuler speaks with  Roland-Holst about his methodology.

FILED UNDER: Government & Business, Power, Jobs, Policy, Power, UC Berkeley
October 15, 2008 | 5:00 PM | By

Proposed Plan for Reducing Emissions in CA

California is one step closer to implementing the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, or AB 32, the law that requires the state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. Today, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released its proposed scoping plan for how to achieve this goal.  CARB president Mary Nichols said more than 40,000 comments were submitted in response to the draft plan released in June, which we wrote about last month.  Today’s plan will go before the Board for approval in December.

One of the biggest changes to the scoping plan is that the target for reducing Regional Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2020 was more than doubled from two to five million metric tons. CARB anticipates meeting this goal with a combination of improvements to alternative transportation infrastructure (such as public transit and biking lanes), building sustainable developments, and reducing vehicle trips through incentives and education strategies.

Another change is the addition of a goal for local governments, which was not articulated in the previous version of the plan.  CARB is recommending local governments reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent below today’s levels by 2020.

A big component of the scoping plan is a cap and trade program that covers 85 percent of the state’s emissions.  The plan is being developed in conjuction with the Western Climate Initiative, which includes seven states and four Canadians provinces that have agreed to work together to cap emissions and create a regional carbon market.  In September, we wrote about the carbon trading market set up by ten eastern states, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). 

Questions still remain about how California’s carbon credits will be divided up and whether they will be handed out, auctioned off, or, more likely, a combination of the two.  WCI has left this decision up the individual states with a recommendation of a minimum auction for 10 percent at the outset of the program increasing to at least 25 percent by 2020, and perhaps higher in the future. Nichols said today that California is considering auctioning 20 percent.  Of course, for many environmentalists, the closer to a 100 percent auction, the better. 

For more information and analysis on the plan, listen to our own Craig Miller, Senior Editor of Climate Watch, on KQED Radio talking with host Sarah Varney. Listen to Miller’s report on AB 32 that aired on the October 16 edition of the The California Report.

FILED UNDER: Government & Business, Assembly Bill 32, California Air Resources Board, cap and trade, Nichols, Policy
October 15, 2008 | 12:40 PM | By

CA Wildfires Responsible for Unhealthy Ozone Levels

Those of us in the San Francisco Bay Area woke up to the smell of smoke on Monday morning, the result of the fires that burned on Angel Island through the night scorching about 400 acres.  Wildfires also burned in nearby Napa country throughout the weekend.  While we know that inhaling all that smoke can’t be a good thing, a new study out from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has quantified some of the risks, and what they’ve found is dangerous amounts of ground level ozone.

The study, which focused on California’s wildfires September and October of last year, found that the fires repeatedly boosted ozone to unhealthy levels – levels that exceed U.S. health standards — across much of California and Nevada.

While ozone in the upper atmosphere where it blocks ultraviolet radiation from the sun is a good thing for life on Earth, it’s a bad thing down here at the surface where ozone can cause breathing difficulty and aggravate respiratory problems like asthma and emphysema in humans and it can harm agricultural crops.  The EPA’s brochure on “good” and “bad” ozone identifies ozone as the main component of urban smog.

Many climate scientists are predicting hotter and drier weather for the American West, likely increasing the frequency and duration of wildfires.  “Bad” ozone might be something we’ll be getting used to.

Here’s a July article from the San Francisco Chronicle with an overview of California’s fires for the first half of 2008.

FILED UNDER: Air, fire, Nevada, ozone
October 9, 2008 | 1:49 PM | By

Small Mammals on the Move in a Warming Yosemite

Over the last century, small mammals in Yosemite National Park have been on the move.  A recent study published in today’s issue of Science finds that as temperatures have warmed (a 3-degree Celcius increase in the park’s night-time low temperature) and Sierra glaciers have continued to melt, small mammals like mice, shrews, and chipmunks have moved to higher elevations or reduced their ranges in response to the climate.As part of the Grinnell Resurvey Project, a team from UC Berkeley’s Museum of Vertebrate Zoology headed up by professor Craig Moritz recently documented these changes in Yosemite by conducting a survey of the animal populations and comparing their data with an extensive data set collected in the same locations by field biologist Joseph Grinnell in the early 20th century.Of the 28 small mammals observed in the study, half had expanded their range upslope by more than 1,600 feet.

Since the higher up you are, the cooler the temperatures tend to be, recent research suggests that the mammals already living at high elevations may eventually face “mountaintop extinctions,” as they run out of room to climb higher if temperatures continue to rise. For example, the alpine chipmunk, which in 1918 was common at 7,800 feet, was recently nowhere to be found below 9,600 feet, according to the study.

Scientists acknowledge that changes in populations and animal communities are natural, but, Moritz says, what is less common is the speed with which these changes occured.

FILED UNDER: Berkeley, Ecosystems, mammals, tropics, Warming, Yosemite
October 8, 2008 | 5:15 PM | By

Despite a Cool Summer, LA is Getting Hotter

It was looking like a cool summer in Los Angeles until a couple of weeks ago.  Temperatures in downtown LA topped 90 degrees Fahrenheit only once this summer until September 25th.  Since then, according to the National Weather Service’s Climatological Report, the city has seen 4 days above 90, including today. Which is what a group of university and NASA scientists say Southern Californians had better get used to.  

The scientists analyzed 100 years of temperature data collected in downtown Los Angeles  and found that between 1906 and 2006 the average number of extreme heat days – those over 90 degrees – increased from 2 per year to more than 25 per year.  In that time, the average maximum daytime temperature for the city climbed 5 degrees.  Heat waves have also increased, from 2-day events to sweltering stretches that last for 1-2 weeks. The scientists predict that in the coming decades, 10-14 day heat waves will be the norm. 

The bottom line? Even though this summer was a cool one, Southern California is going to get warmer, for longer periods of time. ”Our snow pack will be less, our fire seasons will be longer, and unhealthy air alerts will be a summer staple” said study co-author Bill Patzert, a NASA climatologist and oceanographer.

The scientists assert that the main cause of this increase in temperature and heat days in Los Angeles is due the “urban heat island effect,” which makes urban areas 2-10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the surrounding rural areas.

Check out a historical temperature chart for downtown Los Angeles and a full report on the study here.

FILED UNDER: Air, Ecosystems, heat, Los Angeles, NASA, temperatures, urban heat island
October 6, 2008 | 4:34 PM | By

Filling Out the Reservoir Picture

At the annual “Watershed Event” fundraiser for the Sacramento River Watershed Program, Elissa Lynn, Sr. Meteorologist for the state Dept. of Water Resources, offered a rundown of where we stand at the start of the official “water season.”

The short version: It’s bleak.

Lake Oroville in September

As I noted last week, Lake Oroville, a key reservoir on the Feather River, stood at 31% of capacity as of midnight on September 30. Readings from the same hour showed the state’s largest reservoir, Shasta Lake, at 30%; Folsom Lake (American River, east of Sacramento) at 28%; and San Luis Reservoir, east of Silicon Valley at 12–yes, twelve percent of capacity.

Capacity figures by themselves can be misleading. We expect reservoirs to be low this time of year, right at the end of the dry season. But as DWR was taking these readings, Oroville, to use one example, was at 49%–less than half–of “normal” for this time of year.

So, much depends on the coming winter. Even with all the advanced tools that forecasters have at their disposal in this first decade of the 21st Century, it’s hard to say how much water we’ll wring out of the skies this winter. Lynn says we’re in a “La Nada” pattern, meaning the Pacific Ocean isn’t giving a strong signal for either El Nino or its opposite, La Nina. The two conditions describe the degree–or lack–of cold water upwelling from the ocean depths, which has a strong influence on California’s precipitation patterns.

But Lynn says the consensus among forecasters is “leaning toward a dry-to-average” winter and average won’t get us there. We’ll need several soggy months to make up for lost water and avoid more severe water restrictions throughout the state next summer.

FILED UNDER: Water, Department of Water Resources, El Nino, La Nina, Reservoir, Water
October 3, 2008 | 1:43 PM | By

Renewable Energy Tax Credits Extended

In today’s historic passage of the $700 bailout package for the financial industry, Congess also managed to finally extend the alternative energy tax credits that have been held up for months in legislative wrangling.  The Senate approved incentives last week, and yesterday lawmakers included them as part of a $150.5 billion add-on package to the so-called “bail out bill” in efforts to gain more House votes for the financial rescue plan.  The move will extend the existing tax incentives for the wind and solar industries for that were set to expire at the end of the year.

An article from investment research firm Morningstar reports some of the details:

“The bill extends production tax credits for wind energy projects for one year, and for geothermal, biomass, and other renewable sources for two years. 

The solar energy industry won an eight-year extension of the investment tax credit for commercial and utility-scale solar projects, and an eight-year extension of tax credits for residential solar power installations.”

Passage of these incentives is good news for alternative energy advocates who feared the expiration of these credits might harm fledgling wind and solar businesses and initiatives.

Last month, David Gorn reported a story for Climate Watch about what’s going on with large-scale solar installations in California as the state pushes to meet a plan requiring that 1/3 of California’s energy come from renewable sources.  

 Stay tuned for Monday’s radio report on Quest exploring California’s Proposition 7, which would require more wind and solar energy use in the state.

FILED UNDER: Power, Congress, incentives, renewable energy, solar, wind