Monthly Archives: September 2008

Clear as Mud?

In case you missed the explanation that VP candidate Sarah Palin offered to ABC’s Charlie Gibson regarding her stand on anthropogenic climate change, this discussion and video clip at rawstory.com may be clarifying–or not. The governor may not literally be able to see Russia from her house, as her Tina Fey doppelganger suggested on Saturday Night Live but she’s certainly had a front-row seat on the effects of rapid warming in the higher latitudes.

Also under the heading of “in case you missed it,” worth hearing is the America Abroad special that aired last week on KQED Radio. Co-hosted by Ray Suarez and Deborah Amos, Feeling the Heat explores the positions of the two major candidates on climate change, as well as the history of climate science.

Climate Linked to "Silent Streams"?

Memo to anglers: If you’re wondering why they’re not biting, it may be because they’re not there. Little noticed this week was a report from the U.S. Geological Survey, detailing the staggering losses that freshwater fish species have suffered across the U.S. The report describes nearly 40% of North America’s freshwater fishes as “imperiled.” The figure represents a 92% increase over a similar survey done in 1989 by the American Fisheries Society, which participated in the new report. USGS director Mark Myers cited loss of habitat and invasive species as primary causes for the decline but noted that “climate change may further affect these fish.” The news is worse for California, as topping the Survey’s at-risk list are “salmon and trout of the Pacific Coast and western mountain regions.”

Release of the report followed by one day Terry Root’s keynote presentation at the California Climate Change Conference, in which the Stanford researcher warned of a catastrophic loss of trout habitat in California, due in part to climate change.

In CA's Future: More Hay, Less Lemonade?

Climate change might actually help California’s agriculture industry, according to preliminary research findings by one of today’s speakers at the California Climate Change Conference in Sacramento. UC Santa Barbara professor Charles Kolstad described his current research assessing potential future effects of weather and climate on different California agricultural crops such as broccoli and lettuce. His team compiled historical data on farm revenues, crop production, soil quality, and weather, and applied it to two of the standard scenarios provided by the IPCC; A2 (“business as usual”) and B1 (“more moderate change in climate”). Kolstad found “a clearly positive effect [of climate change] on profits” that is mostly due to temperature changes. Precipitation changes had a lesser effect on the results.

However, before you fire up the Farmall (that’s a tractor, for you city folk) and head for the fields, it’s important to note that the study does not account for future water availability and price, which obviously will have a huge impact on the future of agriculture in the state. When one conference attendee took issue with the study, calling it “completely wrong” based on several factors, Kolstad said he was aware that water availability and prices could “swamp these results,” but said that the study was focused on just one piece of a complicated issue.

Of course, not all crops will benefit from increased temperatures. According to the study, cotton and hay will see some of the biggest gains, but food crops like table grapes and lemons will suffer. So at least the horses of the future will be well fed…or not.

Climate Conference, Day 2: Re-roof the World

Morning presentations covered various public health effects from climate change (mostly from air pollution) and some ideas for carbon sequestration, from the potential for low-tech wetlands storage, to the huge WestCarb pilot project, aimed at injecting surplus carbon dioxide into subterranean rock formations. Just approved by DOE is a plan to inject a million tons of CO2 over a four-year period, at a site near Bakersfield. John Henry Beyer of Lawrence Berkeley National Lab says that oil companies may be able to use the stored CO2 for “enhanced oil & gas recovery.”

Greg Rau of UC Santa Cruz cast the mandatory pall-of-the-day with a blunt assessment of the battle against global warming: “We are failing to mitigate atmospheric CO2.” Too much of growing energy demand is being met with fossil fuels, Rau explained. “We need to urgently think about this.” Most of Rau’s talk was devoted to the problem of ocean acidification, recently profiled by my colleague Lauren Sommer for Quest Radio.

One guy who’s done a lot of thinking about it is Hashem Akbari, who will take the lectern today to call upon cities around the world to move rapidly toward “cool roof” policies. Akbari, who works at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, has been a long-time advocate of using reflective roofing and paving materials to help offset the effect of “urban heat islands.” He says that replacing the roof of one typical suburban home (about 1,000 square feet) can produce a CO2 “offset” of four metric tons. He adds that replacing flat commercial roofing with white “cool” roofing or coatings can increase the solar reflectance of the roof from as low as 10% to as high as 80% (at least until it gets dirty). I  interviewed Akbari for a Quest Radio piece on heat islands last year.

Climate Research Conference, Day 1

About 300 scientists, policymakers and resource managers turned out for the California Energy Commission’s 5th annual conference, with about twice that number watching via video webcast.

The focus for much of day one was marking the progress toward regional modeling, i.e. fine-tuning the well established global climate models to yield specific data and hence, forecasting power for local areas. Interesting findings so far include an apparent decrease in the intensity of SoCal’s Santa Ana winds, notorious for fanning wildfires in southland canyons.

Also, Robert Bornstein of San Jose State University is about to publish his study, showing a persistent cooling trend along the California coast, since the mid 1970s. According to Bornstein’s data, areas influenced by the sea breeze have actually cooled an average of 0.4 degrees C per decade over the period, a rate faster than the rest of the state has been warming. Bornstein was quick to point out that he’s not challenging the premise that California is warming as a whole. In fact, he says the coastal cooling trend is yet another weird artifact of global warming.

Stanford ecologist Terry Root dropped the first bombshell of the conference by uttering  a term deplored by her ilk: species “triage.” Root says the climate pressures on California wildlife species are so dire that we will need to pick and choose which ones to save. Asked where to start, she suggested those species that provide “ecosystem services,” such as insects that assist with plant pollination. “In an emergency situation,” she said, “you ask as many questions as you can–but you have to act. We’re plodding along, doing as much as we can. It’s not fun.”

Root’s bird phenology (migration timing) studies were the subject of a story I did for The California Report. The principal interview for that report, Dena Macmynowski, was a graduate student working with Root.

Climate Watch Blog Goes Live

We’ll begin our blog coverage on Monday, 9/8 from the annual Climate Change Science Conference in Sacramento. This is the first year that the entire conference will be available online via webcast. The focus for this conference is on the current science. Don’t expect major policy announcements to come out of it but the agenda does provide a comprehensive review of the latest climate science, from a California perspective. I’ll tag-team the three-day event with my colleague, Gretchen Weber, before she heads off to the Dana Glacier for an upcoming report on California’s glaciers. Listen for the first of our Climate Watch radio features when David Gorn reports on the solar power logjam (is that metaphor mixed?) on The California Report, on Monday morning, 9/15.