April 23, 2008

Tax Cash Increases… But Enough?

It looks like the flow of moneycoming in to state coffers has picked up as personal income tax returns are processed, but there’s still a long ways to go.

As mentioned last week, Controller John Chiang has a new page on his website where you can see (with a time lag) the tax revenues come in each day in April. You may have mailed your check on time, but it takes a while for all of that cash to be processed.

New data shows Monday was the biggest day so far in April, with almost a net of $1.6 billion in tax dollars (that’s the amount after refunds). That brings the total for the fiscal year up to almost $40 billion.

But the burning question is: will this be enough? Governor Schwarzenegger’s current budget plan predicts that total will be $45.3 billion by the end of the month. That means the state still has a way to go as all of those remaining envelopes are opened at the Franchise Tax Board.

April 15, 2008

Tax Blues… State Government-Style

Yes, it’s April 15th. Yes, it’s not a fun day for those of us (myself included) who wrote a check to the state. But this year, it’s even worse if you’re a state lawmaker trying to balance the books for the fiscal year that’s about to begin.

New data out today from the budget shop of Governor Schwarzenegger shows that revenues collected in March for the state’s General Fund were $912 million less than expected for the month… and as a result, total revenues for the year are almost $1.2 billion behind projections. Keep in mind that those revenues come from several sources, only one of which is personal income taxes; corporate tax revenues were also down, for example.

But in April, it’s personal income taxes that everyone cares about. After all, this is the month where most of those taxes are paid for the year. And the presence (or lack thereof) of those revenues are why state budget writers go back and revise their proposals in May… just weeks before the new fiscal year begins on July 1.

Every day this month, the folks at the Franchise Tax Board are opening those tax envelopes and adding up the totals on the checks. This is a process budget wonks have been keeping tabs on for years. This time, however, it’s easy for anyone to monitor. Controller John Chiang has a new page on his website where daily preliminary tax receipts are being released.

In other words, you can see for youself how much is coming in… and how it compares to the tax revenues that came in during April of last year.

As of yesterday, the site shows almost $1.6 billion in personal income taxes have been mailed in this month. That seems to be running slightly ahead of 2007 (though the report is lagging by a day or so). No data has yet been entered for today. And remember, just because you mail it by tonight… the folks at the FTB may not actually get it in their hands for a few more days.

It will be interesting over the next two weeks to watch these totals, and to see just how in the hole the state really is. Remember, most everyone assumes that the budget-balancing actions taken by the governor and Legislature earlier this year may have only solved about half of a problem estimated at near $16 billion.

But remember, revenues were already behind projections when April began. And the governor’s budget assumes a whopping $12.1 billion in personal income tax revenues will come in this month alone. How close will we get? The controller’s website will have some answers over the coming days.