The second and final day of then-versus-now comparisons by the venerable Field Poll makes it easy to see how the seeds of discontent and disagreement have flowered among partisan voters in California these last three decades.

In short: Democrats are more liberal, Republicans are more conservative, and hot button issues have little chance of striking consensus. And some of the only unanimity is found in pessimism.
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This morning brings the latest in a series of studies that shows how different the people who actually vote in California are from the state's population as a whole. It also shows how different those voters are than the ones who cast ballots 30 years ago.

Those conclusions come courtesy of the nonpartisan Field Poll, whose data points should remind every observer of California politics that you can learn a lot about where we're headed by knowing who's at the wheel.
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Talk about a poll that only prompts more speculation.

Today's Field Poll on the potential matchups of Democrats and Republicans for next year's race for governor is proof positive that this race is wide open. An awful lot of presumed and possible candidates, but anyone's guess as to how it will all shake out.
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BUDGET DAY PLUS 22 -- The old joke, in various forms, is that if a politician wants a friend, he or she should get a dog. That's good advice for state legislators and Governor Schwarzenegger if today's Field Poll is any indication.

Californians remain grumpy, as they have been for months, about the direction of the state and of the job performance of their elected officials. And the new survey is more of the same: even lower approval ratings for the guv (40%) and the Legislature (27%).

The budget standoff seems to be exacerbating things; not only do 68% of those surveyed think the $15.2 billion shortfall is "very serious," but 41% say they don't have much confidence in Schwarzenegger's ability to resolve it and 52% say the same thing about the 120 members of the Legislature.

No word on the opinions voiced by the dogs...

BUDGET DAY PLUS 16 -- Today's confab between legislative leaders and Governor Schwarzenegger certainly didn't resolve the budget impasse, but it did feature some serious talk on a familiar subject: the California Lottery.

The roughly two hour meeting of the "Big Five" came as both houses of the Legislature sit in recess with rank-and-file members on what many critics have called an undeserved vacation. And while leaders exiting the meeting indicated there was a lot of broad discussion on issues, all confirmed that the governor's team brought in analysts to discuss ways to squeeze money out of the lottery.

You'll remember that Schwarzenegger placed a plan on the table several months ago to balance the budget, in part, through the sale $15 billion in bonds repaid with future lottery revenues. The specific pitch never gained much traction at the state Capitol, with Democrats saying it was unrealistic to expect the money to show up in time to help this year's dilemma... and Republicans decrying the lottery proposal's backup plan -- a sales tax increase.

A phalanx of financial advisers, along with the governor's economic guru, David Crane, were seen exiting the meeting just after noontime. And yet Democrats still said the issue was a possible source of cash for the future... but not now.

"I think it's pretty conclusive that it's a not a budget solution for this year," said Senate President pro Tem Don Perata.

Of course, the voters haven't seemed hot on the idea, either.

Republicans came out of the meeting saying they remain focused on some kind of budget reform proposal, still a tough sell to Democrats.

And as for what happens next... don't expect full legislative action soon. Almost two weeks ago, Democratic leaders vowed to work towards a full budget vote in both chambers by next week. Will that still happen?

"I don't believe so," said Assembly Speaker Karen Bass.

When people speak of "The French Paradox," they're referring to that pesky disconnect between the high fat diets of the people of France and their relatively low rates of heart disease.

But perhaps we need to promote our own paradox here in the Golden State... where we (the "collective" we) don't want to see major state programs slashed to balance the budget but also don't want to have our taxes go up.

This morning's Field Poll is the latest evidence of The California Paradox.

63% of registered voters who were surveyed said they want the current $15 billion budget shortfall resolved mainly through spending cuts.

And then they turned right around and took all the big ticket items off the table -- with strong opposition in cuts to public schools (80% against), health care programs for low-income Californians (77% against), higher education (71% against), law enforcement programs (71% against), child care programs (70% against), public transportation (67%)...

Shall I keep going?

As you might guess, that list represents the lion's share of state spending. The only spending cut the survey found even tepid acquiescence to a cut in prison spending. And even that idea was rejected by 50% of voters in the Field Poll.

Of course, the old "tax everybody but me" mentality returns in this new poll, when voters were asked specifically what tax hikes they'd support to prevent health care cuts (the poll was funded in part by the California HealthCare Foundation).

Smokers, drinkers, and rich people would all be thrown under the bus first. Business property taxes come next, with 56% of those surveyed saying they'd be ok with that (oddly enough, that conflicts with the Field Poll released yesterday that found only 47% approval of this same modification of the legendary Proposition 13).

In the end, the voters in this poll seem to admit that The California Paradox is impractical. So how do they think the pending budget mess will be cleaned up? 81% said they think the current budget mess will be solved through tax increases.

Is there anyone running state government the voters like?

On this election day, a sobering analysis from the Field Poll: voters are less than enamored with either Governor Schwarzenegger or his colleagues in the Legislature.

The guv's job approval numbers have gone up and down more than a roller coaster at Knott's Berry Farm.

Today, only 41% surveyed like how Schwarzenegger is doing; 48% do not. That's down 19 points from his approval ratings just six months ago, but still a few points above his all-time low in the Field Poll back in 2005. Most notable, I think, in the breakdown of subgroups of voters: independent voters (who "decline to state" a party affiliation) are almost split down the middle with 44% approving and 46% disapproving. That group of Californians are the historical base of Schwarzenegger's political support over the last five years.

Of course, the governor is all the rage compared to the Legislature as a whole; Field puts the institution's approval at just 30% of those surveyed.

But the big number may be what politicos call the "right track/wrong track" -- the numbers of voters who say things are either headed in the right or wrong direction. Field's new poll says only 23% say things are on the right track, versus 68% who feel things are lousy.

That's the most glum Californians have been in Field's surveys since the summer of 2003... when a certain celebrity launched his political career by placing the blame on the state's sitting chief executive.

Every good pollster will tell you that a poll is merely a snapshot in time. That may mean no one should read too much into today's Field Poll showing a slim majority of Californians now support same sex marriages. After all, opinions change.

But another argument may be made that this is far from a fleeting development, as support for the idea has slowly but measurably grown. And that theory can be backed up by more than 30 years of surveying on the issue by respected pollsters Mervin Field and Mark DiCamillo.

Today's headline is clearly the poll results showing 51% of voters surveyed approve of gay marriages, while 42% oppose them. The poll will be online here later today.

But beyond that is some fascinating data about how the issue has changed over time. First, the historical context. In this poll, and six others dating back to 1977, Field asked the following question (used verbatim every time in the past 31 years):

Do you approve or disapprove of California allowing homosexuals to marry members of their own sex and have regular marriage laws apply to them?

Only 28% of adults agreed with that statement in 1977. By 1997, it was 38%. In 2004, 44% of voters agreed. Today, it's eeked over the majority line at 51%.

So what's going on? No definitive answers, but some reasonable theories:

1. Young vs. Old: The generation gap on this issue is now enormous. Field's new poll finds those between the ages of 18 and 39 strongly favor same sex marriages, while those 65 and over strongly reject them.

2. Urban vs. Rural: The familiar schism in California politics is holding true on this issue. Los Angeles and the Bay Area approve in the new poll, while voters in the Central Valley and Inland Empire generally do not. The divide is roughly the same when breaking the state down by coastal counties versus inland ones.

3. Religion: In one of the more controversial and murky areas of the poll, more Catholics and Protestants surveyed disapprove than approve. And those describing themselves as born-again Christians strongly reject the concept, 68%-24%.

As you might expect, the other big attention-getter in this poll is the fact that the likely November intiative to amend the state constitution and ban gay marriage looks to be in trouble before it even qualifies for the ballot. Regardless of how the question was asked (and it was asked two different ways), at least 51% of registered voters said they oppose such a plan. Field notes that the findings mirror other surveys on whether the issue should be amended into the U.S. Constitution -- perhaps that major step is the problem.

But one particular item stands out in my quick analysis, and it's the growing acceptance of same sex marriage among California's new power players in state politics: the indepedent "decline to state" voters. In Field's August 2003 survey on the issue, just 50% of these voters said they approved of gay marriages. This time around, support among decline to state respondents is at 61%.

Remember, this is the single fastest growing group of California voters -- now almost 20%. This is also the group that has been closely tied to the political fortunes of Governor Schwarzenegger, who has said he will oppose the initiative if it makes it to the ballot. The convention wisdom is that most Democrats support same sex marriage and most Republicans oppose it. But the real action, to borrow a phrase from the guv, is with non-partisan voters. And they may hold the key to whether California takes the national lead on this issue in November... one way or the other.