June 26, 2008

One Deadline Comes & Goes

Early summer is deadline season at the state Capitol. Legislation must move out of policy committees, the state budget is supposed to be enacted, and… in an election year… legislators and the governor must act to place proposals on the fall statewide ballot.

As of today, scratch that last deadline off the list.

Using the state’s election laws… and counting backward from election day… today is the deadline for measures to be in place for the November 4 ballot.

11 proposals are already on the weighty November ballot, 10 of them placed there by voter circulated initiatives and one — the previously delayed high-speed rail bond — placed there by the Legislature.

Governor Schwarzenegger has been pushing for three more ballot measures: a budget reform plan, a proposal to modify the California Lottery and borrow money against its future revenues, and a bond measure to solve the state’s water woes.

The budget reform issue and the lottery borrowing plan are both mired down in the seemingly going nowhere negotiations over a new state budget. And while some sort of lottery proposal has support in both parties, Democrats have pretty resoundingly shot down all budget reform ideas placed on the table.

The water bond’s fate is especially murky, even in the midst of drought like conditions across the state, and no new signs of compromise have appeared.

Having said all this, missing today’s deadline doesn’t mean any — or all — of these measures have missed the November ballot. Lawmakers have stretched their time limits on ballot proposals several times in recent years. And the reality is that once they blow past today’s official deadline, it becomes a question of how long do local elections officials need to design and print their ballots… and how much are lawmakers in Sacramento willing to spend to send out an extra ballot pamphlet to millions of voters?

“I love deadlines,” British author Douglas Adams is quoted as once saying. “I especially like the whooshing sound they make as they go flying by.”

June 4, 2008

A Drought of Water, A Flood of Propositions?

The main story out of today’s news conference from Governor Schwarzenegger is, of course, important news: the governor has officially proclaimed a drought in California but has stopped short of imposing water restrictions, opting instead to first try and get the word out for more water conservation.

Schwarzenegger is using the proclamation to renew his push for borrowing $11.9 billion to create long-term solutions to California’s water woes. Water bond negotiations broke down here in Sacramento months ago and have been in limbo ever since.

And so now to our minor but noteworthy point: the governor hopes to add the water bond to the ever-growing ballot that voters will be handed at the polling place on November 4.

“Put it on the ballot this November [and] pass it,” he said at today’s Capitol news conference, “so that we can start building, and so that we can secure the water for the future.”

For those not keeping score at home: the November ballot already consists of eight measures– seven voter-circulated initiatives, one measure placed on the ballot by the Legislature. That includes the proposition that’s likely to crowd out all others for attention, an attempt to amend the state constitution to ban same-sex marriages.

Add #9 if Schwarzenegger’s political team successfully gathered enough voter signatures to qualify a redistricting reform measure. And most politicos think that they did.

Add #10 if you think the victim’s rights intiative known as “Marsy’s Law” will qualify. And that, too, seems likely.

Add #11 for a $5 billion bond encouraging fuel-efficient vehicles and energy research.

Add #12, #13, and #14 if the governor gets his trifecta of budget reform, authorization to sell $15 billion in bonds against future California Lottery revenues, and now… water bonds.

14 ballot measures is a heck of a hefty ballot. Not that there haven’t been hefty ballots in years past in California. But it certainly would seem that this particular myriad of complicated subjects, layered on top of an historic presidential campaign, could saddle the voters with quite a challenge.

Needless to say, Schwarzenegger thinks they’re up to the task. “I think that the people enjoy participating in the political process,” he said.

His complete answer, which focuses more on the policy issue at hand, can be heard here.

Having lined all of these proposals up, perhaps it’s time for a reality check. The budget reform and lottery ballot measure plans are the stickiest of wickets, so much so that the odds of both of these making the November ballot currently seem a little long.

Reality check #2: the Legislature and governor are technically supposed to submit any ballot measures for November by June 26. Ummm… okay. That formal deadline has been stretched to the point of breaking in the past, and would apparently have to be stretched again this time.

Reality check #3: negotiating multiple complicated things at the same time is a tough act to pull off at the Capitol, even though Schwarzenegger today (as you can hear below) urged legislators to give it a shot.

But were it all to come true… 14 ballot measures, four of which would be near and dear to Schwarzenegger’s heart… then consider this: which one(s) would he campaign for? Which would he raise money for?

In other words, how many ways can you slice the time… and spread the influence… of the state’s most recognizable politician?

May 21, 2008

Poll: No To Lottery Bonds, Yes To Sales Tax Hike… And More

It may not yet be a fully formed proposal for voters to consider, but from what they’ve heard… they don’t seem thrilled about Governor Schwarzenegger’s plan to sell bonds paid back by future revenues from the California Lottery.

That’s probably the headline in the poll released tonight by the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC found 58% of all adults and 62% of likely voters are opposed to the governor’s $15 billion lottery bond proposal.

But even more interesting is the fact that they actually seem to like the one idea that seems the least likely to materialize: a temporary one cent hike in the sales tax.

Schwarzenegger proposed the tax hike as an insurance policy should the voters reject the lottery idea. Legislative Republicans unanimously rejected the idea. But the new poll finds 54% of adults like the idea, and 57% of likely voters like it. Even 51% of Republicans surveyed said they’d support the plan, though all respondents made their support contingent on the tax being temporary, not permanent.

Also on the subject of taxes, voters seem to prefer sticking it to big businesses and rich people. 63% like the idea of raising the state corporations tax; 69% like the idea of raising the top income tax rate for the most wealthy.

Elsewhere, 78% of those surveyed by PPIC are either somewhat or very concerned with the governor’s new plan to cut another $3 billion out of health and human services programs. But only 17% said these programs were their priority in protecting; not surprisingly, the one sacred cow for the voters continues to be K-12 education (61% said it should be spared from budget cuts).

Meantime, only 35% of likely voters said they like the governor’s budget on the whole. In fact, only 17% of the adults surveyed said they prefer Schwarzenegger’s budget ideas above all others, while 57% said they’d pick either the ideas of legislative Democrats or Republicans.

So what’s the silver lining for Schwarzenegger? Not his approval numbers; they’re down to 41%, a 15 point drop in just five month’s time.

No, the top vote getter for the guv may just be his ideas on changing the budget process… or at least as much as the voters know about it. PPIC asked whether voters like the idea of a new limit on how much state spending could increase from year to year. 68% of likely voters said they’d go along with that.

Budget Relativity

Governor Schwarzenegger has never liked to call himself a politician, but he’s certainly mastered what could be called a different “theory of relativity” — one that’s a key skill to succeeding in politics.

This morning, after a speech at the California Chamber of Commerce’s annual event here in Sacramento, the governor met with reporters for a few minutes of rapid fire Q&A in what we affectionately call a “scrum.”

Rugby references aside, the reporter briefing was noteworthy for how quickly the governor switched from talking about protecting the future… to using the future.

Specially, we’re talking money. I asked the governor about convincing the public that his lottery bond proposal is a good idea (stay tuned for more on this tonight and tomorrow).

Schwarzenegger compared the proposal — technically a revenue securitization plan (careful, don’t raise the ire of the administraton and call it “borrowing”) — to the state’s actions a few years ago in getting an advance loan on future settlement money from a tobacco industry lawsuit.

Here’s what he said:

But just minutes later, as he discussed his ideas on budget reform and reining in state spending, Schwarzenegger laid down a challenge to lawmakers to stop depending on the future, and to instead live in the here and now when it comes to revenues.

Here’s what he said:

So does that mean the future is fair game… or not? And if you use future money now, then isn’t that just another way of avoiding a real balance of revenues and expenses?

Yes, all of this may only be a word game. And techincally, the governor may not have been inconsistent, if you believe that getting money now — regardless of where it comes from — counts as the kind of cash in the bank he’s talking about.

But budget relativity… where someone says let’s not wait until tomorrow to solve today’s problems but let’s leverage tomorrow to make today balance out… is the very kind of logic maze that induces the same kind of brain freeze as a milkshake being drunk too fast.

The governor is far from the only one who expertly navigates such mazes. But he’s also better than most, and Schwarzenegger has historically been very good at creating just the image he wants. You might even call him a skilled… politician.

May 14, 2008

Tonight’s Jackpot Winner: Wall Street?

Ah, where to begin?

Governor Schwarzenegger’s new budget proposal reminds me of the old adage that journalists have used so much that it’s become a badge of honor in our profession: if people on both sides of something are mad at me, then I must be doing something right.

Of course, it’s never that simple… in the news biz, or with this state budget plan.

The $144 billion spending proposal seeks to erase what the governor’s advisers say is a $17.2 billion shortfall (to be fair, it’s actually $15.2 billion in red ink, with $2 billion more for a reserve). $9.1 billion of the solutions are spending cuts. Those are, in several cases, serious cutbacks… many in health and welfare programs.

But it’s the new revenues the guv is counting on that are getting a lot of the attention.

And more than 60% of those new revenues are found in Schwarzenegger’s unusual… and already controversial… plan to sell bonds repaid by future profits from the California Lottery. The governor’s team doesn’t like that many of us are calling it “borrowing.” Call it “securitization,” or “selling future lottery profits,” they say. But it’s also true that the state would be asking for a loan from Wall Street investors for $15 billion in future lottery earnings up front, to be paid back with interest.

Only $5.1 billion of that loaned cash would be used now; the rest would be stashed away. The entire plan would have to be blessed by voters in November, because the lottery itself was created by an initiative in 1984.

The lottery idea isn’t a new one. Three other states — Oregon, Florida, and West Virgina — have already embarked on somewhat similar lottery bond offerings.

But what is new is the ultimatum that Schwarzenegger and legislators (who’d have to agree to place it to the ballot) would be sending to voters: agree to change the lottery… or the state will enact a 1% sales tax increase.

The threat of a tax increase immediately had legislative Republicans threatening to go to the mattresses. But it may also become perceived as a “give us your money one way or the other” kind of strategy: buy lottery tickets or pay more in sales tax at the register.

And how might you get more people to play the lottery? Many of the ideas were discussed back in March when a state Senate committee considered the idea of lottery privatization: more marketing… perhaps even to younger Californians… more machines in more neighborhoods… and bigger jackpots. Those same kinds of changes are currently enshrined in SB 1679 by Sen. Dean Florez (D-Shafter), a lottery reform bill upon which the governor’s plan appears modeled.

But bigger jackpots means that the long-standing guarantee of 34% of lottery sales going to education must be eliminated. And that’s raised the ire of the powerful California Teachers Association, which formally opposes SB 1679.

Education’s role in lottery revenues would be further diminished by something made explicit today in a Q&A between reporters and Schwarzenegger’s budget director, Mike Genest: Wall Street investors would have first dibs at future lottery revenues. “Education revenue is subordinate” under this plan, said Genest.

Something tells me that’s going to be a tough pill to swallow.

There will be much more to examine on this issue… and the budget battle… in the coming weeks. But one other thought to ponder on this sweltering day in Sac Town: the lottery proposal and the governor’s much ballyhooed budget reform plan both have to be on the November ballot.

The first (and official) deadline for getting them on the ballot is June 26. That’s fine if the budget’s enacted in time, too, for the July 1 fiscal year. But almost no one in Sacramento thinks that will happen… meaning elections officials could also be scrambling to get these two measures included in the fall lineup.