If you’re one of those folks who are following the latest discussions about the fiscal troubles of the state, a word of advice: believe everything. Or nothing. Or something in between.

Spending and revenue estimates in Sacramento are always like the latest fad in fashion… they come and they go. They’re hip one day, tragically dated the next. That’s been true for years, way before Governor Schwarzenegger took office.

But few other chief executives have sparked so much chatter… and offered so many estimates about the budget… in so few days.

The latest guesstimate came on Monday, when Schwarzenegger told an audience in Garden Grove that the state budget is “$20 billion out of whack.” That would lead to a budget crisis second only in magnitude to the shortfall that helped spark the recall of former governor Gray Davis in 2003.

As of yesterday, the official word was that the governor was “speaking rhetorically.” Might that then mean that the governor’s numbers aren’t necessarily rooted in reality? After all, my handy Webster’s Dictionary offers one definition of rhetoric as “the use of exaggerated language; bombast.”

But today, Capitol reporters were told that the number could, in fact, be real.

“[Schwarzenegger] has internal estimates” that show as much as an additional $10 billion in budget red ink, according to gubernatorial press secretary Aaron McLear. “That’s why we need to start working on this now.”

McLear declined to reveal any more about those internal projections, though may have more later on whether this is a lack of revenue, an abundance of spending, or both.

But he did lay out a rationale for how you’d get to $20 billion:

The governor’s budget team believes that as of this winter the state faced a $7.4 billion deficit in fiscal year beginning in July, down from $16 billion and thanks to a series of possible money saving proposals were enacted. Add to that $2.8 billion, says Schwarzenegger spokesman McLear, for the governor’s desired rainy day fund. Then add on the still nebulous $10 billion in new problems… and you get pretty close to $20 billion.

Of course, the rainy day fund isn’t really part of the deficit… i.e., an actual shortfall in revenues or an abundance of mandatory expenditures. Take that out and the governor’s new number maxes out at a little more than $17 billion.

Now, the caveats. We’re still waiting for a clearer picture of revenues. And while the April 15 checks are still being totaled over at the Franchise Tax Board, there’s new word that things might be looking better than (or not so bad as) expected. That, however, is only one piece of the revenue pie: there are also corporate tax revenues and sales tax revenues that figure into the issue.

But if the deficit projections start inching toward the big two-oh, it’s hard to see how even the governor’s 10% across-the-board cuts (strongly opposed by Democrats) would erase the problem. And yes, that probably brings us back to a debate over some kind of a ____ increase.

You can fill in the blank, can’t you?

It looks like the flow of moneycoming in to state coffers has picked up as personal income tax returns are processed, but there’s still a long ways to go.

As mentioned last week, Controller John Chiang has a new page on his website where you can see (with a time lag) the tax revenues come in each day in April. You may have mailed your check on time, but it takes a while for all of that cash to be processed.

New data shows Monday was the biggest day so far in April, with almost a net of $1.6 billion in tax dollars (that’s the amount after refunds). That brings the total for the fiscal year up to almost $40 billion.

But the burning question is: will this be enough? Governor Schwarzenegger’s current budget plan predicts that total will be $45.3 billion by the end of the month. That means the state still has a way to go as all of those remaining envelopes are opened at the Franchise Tax Board.

On this week’s Capital Notes Podcast, we wax poetically about some of the latest poltical and policy news… including an insurance industry crackdown, grumbling among some legislative Democrats when it comes to party politics, and the latest news on the state’s growing budget deficit.

Capitol Weekly editor Anthony York and I trek through the week’s news with our usual repartee. Consider yourself warned.

Related Information:

“State Launches Unprecedented Review of HMO Coverage Cancellations,” by John Howard & Anthony York of Capitol Weekly

“Perata’s ‘No Show’ Letter to Staff Chiefs Fuels Capitol Anger,” by Anthony York of Capitol Weekly

“Tax Blues… State Government Style,” by John Myers at KQED Capital Notes

Where else would a headline like that be written than here at the state Capitol? A few items of note as the week begins…

A NEW TAXXX: Today was lobbying day for the adult entertainment industry, one of the more unusual annual rituals at a statehouse was unusual is the norm. The fully clothed ensemble that made their way to Sacramento had a particular gripe this time around: pending legislation to impose a new (and extra) 8% tax on adult DVD stores, theaters, and nightclubs. The money collected by the tax in Assemblymember Charles Calderon’s bill, AB 2914, would create a new fund to supposedly mitigate the impact of such businesses on local communities.

Let’s just answer that burning question now, shall we? Yes, adult film stars were in attendance. And no, I shouldn’t have Googled them in advance when I didn’t recognize the names listed on the press advisory (seriously, KQED, I was doing research).

Now that we have that out of the way… the industry representatives argued the tax would send many in the multi-billion dollar sex industry packing to other states. “You do not want this industry to relocate,” said Jeffrey Douglas of the industry-sponsored Free Speech Coalition.

Of course, AB 2914 could pose an interesting dilemma for some legislators, namely Republicans. After all, if you’re a social conservative you’d probably love nothing more than to see the XXX industry move out. But if you’re a fiscal conservative, you’re probably loathe to enact a new tax. Oh, the irony.

A FALL CLASSIC AT THE CAPITOL? Hundreds of college students from around the state descended on Sacramento this morning to protest Governor Schwarzenegger’s proposed budget cuts, and the likely ensuing tuition hikes. Such a protest has become a predictable, though unfortunate, reality at the state Capitol in recent years. And among those speaking from the podium on the Capitol steps, Senate President pro Tem Don Perata… perhaps the best situated of any of the speakers to reject the governor’s budget plan.

“We need to raise taxes in order to educate Californians,” he told the crowd. And if that wasn’t enough tough talk, Perata repeated his recent pledge to stay in session as long it takes to get the budget Democrats want. “If we have to watch the World Series from this building, we will do it.”

SADDLED UP: Speaking of budget cuts, a smaller group of protesters was on the other side of the Capitol this morning to lament another part of the governor’s spending plan. About two dozen folks had marched from the nearby Sutter’s Fort to protest Schwarzenegger’s proposed spending cuts for California state parks, many of them wearing clothes from the 1800’s. Others made the journey on horseback and in vintage wagons… which led to a different kind of spectacle: one of the many hitched-up horses relieving himself on the street in front of the Capitol, just as a repulsed group of college students from the other event happened to stroll by.

Yes, it’s April 15th. Yes, it’s not a fun day for those of us (myself included) who wrote a check to the state. But this year, it’s even worse if you’re a state lawmaker trying to balance the books for the fiscal year that’s about to begin.

New data out today from the budget shop of Governor Schwarzenegger shows that revenues collected in March for the state’s General Fund were $912 million less than expected for the month… and as a result, total revenues for the year are almost $1.2 billion behind projections. Keep in mind that those revenues come from several sources, only one of which is personal income taxes; corporate tax revenues were also down, for example.

But in April, it’s personal income taxes that everyone cares about. After all, this is the month where most of those taxes are paid for the year. And the presence (or lack thereof) of those revenues are why state budget writers go back and revise their proposals in May… just weeks before the new fiscal year begins on July 1.

Every day this month, the folks at the Franchise Tax Board are opening those tax envelopes and adding up the totals on the checks. This is a process budget wonks have been keeping tabs on for years. This time, however, it’s easy for anyone to monitor. Controller John Chiang has a new page on his website where daily preliminary tax receipts are being released.

In other words, you can see for youself how much is coming in… and how it compares to the tax revenues that came in during April of last year.

As of yesterday, the site shows almost $1.6 billion in personal income taxes have been mailed in this month. That seems to be running slightly ahead of 2007 (though the report is lagging by a day or so). No data has yet been entered for today. And remember, just because you mail it by tonight… the folks at the FTB may not actually get it in their hands for a few more days.

It will be interesting over the next two weeks to watch these totals, and to see just how in the hole the state really is. Remember, most everyone assumes that the budget-balancing actions taken by the governor and Legislature earlier this year may have only solved about half of a problem estimated at near $16 billion.

But remember, revenues were already behind projections when April began. And the governor’s budget assumes a whopping $12.1 billion in personal income tax revenues will come in this month alone. How close will we get? The controller’s website will have some answers over the coming days.

With April 15 right around the corner, state tax officials have released their list of the biggest tax debts owed to the Golden State… and it’s hard to miss the name of O.J. Simpson coming in at #15.

Actually, the official list from the state Franchise Tax Board lists him as “Orenthal Simpson” of Miami, Fla. The notorious celebrity owes taxes and penalties totaling $1,527,925.92.

There aren’t many other instantly recognizable names on the list, though a little searching revealed that one of those fingered by FTB officials is Altovise Davis, wife of the late singer/actor Sammy Davis, Jr. She comes in at #8 on the public list, with a state tax debt of $2,708,901.75.

The list of tax debts adds up to some $123 million in money owed to state government. Granted, that’s not much when compared to a current budget deficit of at least $8 billion. But tax officials say what’s fair is fair, and the list is publicized in hopes of, well, embarrassing some of these folks into coming forward.

Something tells me, though, that it might be hard to embarrass O.J. at this point.

The full list is here.

This week, breaking news about a pop star’s quest for elected office… and other more, ahem, real news in California politics and public policy.

Capitol Weekly’s Anthony York and I take a look back at the local and national political dramas from last week’s California Democratic convention, the latest on health care battles at the state Capitol, the chances for changing the budget process, and the birth of a new bipartisan reform group.

[update: Reason #417 to beware of the internet… this posting has already been linked to by at least one site that tracks the pop singer in question, fully failing to take into consideration the date on the calendar when evaluating the veracity of our conversation about her political aspirations!]

Related Information:
“Democrats Need to ‘Chill Out,’ Bill Clinton Says,” by Laura Kurtzman of the Associated Press

“Dems Refuse To Endorse Migden,” by John Wildermuth of the San Francisco Chronicle

“Senate Hearing To Probe Regulation of Health Care Industry,” by Anthony York and John Howard of Capitol Weekly

“Governor’s Budget Reform: Missing Details,” by John Myers of KQED Public Radio

“California Forward Launches Reform Effort,” by Malcolm Maclachlan of Capitol Weekly