If you’re one of those folks who are following the latest discussions about the fiscal troubles of the state, a word of advice: believe everything. Or nothing. Or something in between.

Spending and revenue estimates in Sacramento are always like the latest fad in fashion… they come and they go. They’re hip one day, tragically dated the next. That’s been true for years, way before Governor Schwarzenegger took office.

But few other chief executives have sparked so much chatter… and offered so many estimates about the budget… in so few days.

The latest guesstimate came on Monday, when Schwarzenegger told an audience in Garden Grove that the state budget is “$20 billion out of whack.” That would lead to a budget crisis second only in magnitude to the shortfall that helped spark the recall of former governor Gray Davis in 2003.

As of yesterday, the official word was that the governor was “speaking rhetorically.” Might that then mean that the governor’s numbers aren’t necessarily rooted in reality? After all, my handy Webster’s Dictionary offers one definition of rhetoric as “the use of exaggerated language; bombast.”

But today, Capitol reporters were told that the number could, in fact, be real.

“[Schwarzenegger] has internal estimates” that show as much as an additional $10 billion in budget red ink, according to gubernatorial press secretary Aaron McLear. “That’s why we need to start working on this now.”

McLear declined to reveal any more about those internal projections, though may have more later on whether this is a lack of revenue, an abundance of spending, or both.

But he did lay out a rationale for how you’d get to $20 billion:

The governor’s budget team believes that as of this winter the state faced a $7.4 billion deficit in fiscal year beginning in July, down from $16 billion and thanks to a series of possible money saving proposals were enacted. Add to that $2.8 billion, says Schwarzenegger spokesman McLear, for the governor’s desired rainy day fund. Then add on the still nebulous $10 billion in new problems… and you get pretty close to $20 billion.

Of course, the rainy day fund isn’t really part of the deficit… i.e., an actual shortfall in revenues or an abundance of mandatory expenditures. Take that out and the governor’s new number maxes out at a little more than $17 billion.

Now, the caveats. We’re still waiting for a clearer picture of revenues. And while the April 15 checks are still being totaled over at the Franchise Tax Board, there’s new word that things might be looking better than (or not so bad as) expected. That, however, is only one piece of the revenue pie: there are also corporate tax revenues and sales tax revenues that figure into the issue.

But if the deficit projections start inching toward the big two-oh, it’s hard to see how even the governor’s 10% across-the-board cuts (strongly opposed by Democrats) would erase the problem. And yes, that probably brings us back to a debate over some kind of a ____ increase.

You can fill in the blank, can’t you?

Governor Schwarzenegger has agreed to a new expansion of Indian gaming in California, and for the the second time in his tenure he’s made a casino deal that seems to set precedent. This time: two tribes from different regions of the state share the profits from a single casino.

The formal casino compacts announced this morning could pave the way for a 2,500 slot machine casino just off Highway 99 in Madera County. The casino would be run by the North Fork Rancheria of Mono Indians. But a portion of the profits would be given to the Wiyot Tribe of Humboldt County, in exchange for Wiyot abandoning any plans for a casino on the north coast. The state would also get a cut of the casino profits on a sliding scale. Schwarzenegger adminstration officials estimate the early profits would be in the range of $3-5 million a year for Wiyot, and as much as $25 million a year for the state.

There’s a familiarity to the shotgun marriage of the two tribes, as it shares some similarities with the controversial and ultimately doomed deal of 2005 for side-by-side casinos in Barstow. In that case, two tribes were to be given casinos in a location far away from their ancestral homes, largely to sidestep environmental concerns in developing native lands. This time, there’s also an environmental protection issue (with the Wiyot location). North Fork’s reservation is closer to the site in question than was the case in the Barstow deal, though at least one other tribe in the Central valley remains adamant the land in question is in their territory.

The formal gaming compacts are being signed today by Schwarzenegger, but are not yet being submitted to the Legislature. The governor’s advisers told reporters on a conference call this morning that until federal officials approve the 305 acre parcel near Madera, the compacts will be in a holding pattern. That, too, seems to be a nod toward the Legislature’s rejection of the Barstow deal… where legislators demanded that the feds give their blessing first. The governor’s aides also rejected any notion that this new deal sets any kind of precedent, arguing that every Indian gaming negotiation stands or falls on its own merit.

But perhaps the most interesting part of the conference call held by the governor’s tribal gaming team came in their defense of the new casino deal’s adherence to Schwarzenegger’s 2005 manifesto on acceptable new Indian casinos.

That proclamation says, in part, that Schwarzenegger will not agree to any new casino “where the Indian tribe does not have Indian lands eligible” for a Nevada-style casino.

That would seem to kill deals like this one, right? After all, the North Fork tribe doesn’t yet have federal approval for the land near Highway 99.

The answer: the proclamation doesn’t say what you might think.

Schwarzenegger’s legal affairs secretary, Andrea Hoch, told reporters that because both tribes have other land (i.e., their ancestral homes) that is already eligible for gaming, then their quest for an off-reservation casino is not at odds with the proclamation… even if a common language reading of the document suggests otherwise.

“Both tribes have met that criteria and met that threshold,” said Hoch.

The proclamation also stipulates that the “local community” support the project. How to measure that, of course, is the tricky part. Some local officials in Madera County have signed off on the deal, but others in the community have voiced strong objections. And in today’s briefing, there was mention of a telephone poll that reportedly showed the community is in favor.

Is a poll enough proof? During a hearing in the Legislature almost three years ago for the Barstow project, some legislators scoffed at polls… essentially saying that choosing the right sample gets you the result you want. Given their line of work, you can assume they know a thing or two about polling.

One final note: it’s hard not to note that legislation to ban just this type of announcement continues to make its way through the state Senate. SB 1695 by Sen. Dean Florez (D-Shafter) would prohibit the governor from striking deals for land not yet approved by the feds for a casino. The governor has taken no formal position on the bill, but this agreement certainly seems to show he’d veto it if it comes to his desk in its current form.

Nonetheless, today’s news marks a significant new chapter in Indian gaming in California. Expect fans and critics alike to use it as a rallying cry for other proposed expansions in the coming months.

One of these days, someone will end the debate on whether California has the authority to demand fewer greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles. In the meantime, there’s another battle that’s erupted… and this one is found deep inside a document outlining new national fuel efficiency standards.

The latest fracas over California’s landmark tailpipe emissions law is about proposed new regulations from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The regulations seek to raise the minimum gas mileage of vehicles that would hit the streets in the next few years.

But deep inside that 417 page document is a finding that California and other states can’t regulate tailpipe emissions, because doing so amounts to individual states setting fuel efficiency standards… something that only the feds can do.

If that declaration is allowed to stand, it would strike a big blow to California’s landmark global warming law. And that explains why state officials came out today with guns ablaze.

“It’s a power grab,” said California Air Resources Board chairwoman Mary Nichols in an afternoon news conference at the state Capitol. “[The Bush administration’s goal] is to make sure that the U.S. auto companies don’t ever have to face any regulatory requirements that might make them do something that would make the cars more efficient.”

The new document’s apparent attempt to settle the issue certainly seems suspect when you consider that the debate over regulating tailpipe emissions is still making its way through the courts… where, so far, California seems to be holding its own.

And state officials say the argument made by the proposed fuel standards regulation — that tailpipe emissions and fuel standards are inextricably linked — is one they’ve heard before.

Nichols addressed the issue head-on at today’s news conference.

U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein is also vowing to fight the seemingly stealth action. In a letter dated today to U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters, Feinstein says that the proposed regulation “is contrary to Congressional intent” on the issue of what states can, and cannot, do when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions.

It looks like the flow of moneycoming in to state coffers has picked up as personal income tax returns are processed, but there’s still a long ways to go.

As mentioned last week, Controller John Chiang has a new page on his website where you can see (with a time lag) the tax revenues come in each day in April. You may have mailed your check on time, but it takes a while for all of that cash to be processed.

New data shows Monday was the biggest day so far in April, with almost a net of $1.6 billion in tax dollars (that’s the amount after refunds). That brings the total for the fiscal year up to almost $40 billion.

But the burning question is: will this be enough? Governor Schwarzenegger’s current budget plan predicts that total will be $45.3 billion by the end of the month. That means the state still has a way to go as all of those remaining envelopes are opened at the Franchise Tax Board.