It's hard not to see the results of tonight's new statewide poll as even more fuel to the fire of reworking the way California government -- and frankly, California politics -- will operate in the future.
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The second and final day of then-versus-now comparisons by the venerable Field Poll makes it easy to see how the seeds of discontent and disagreement have flowered among partisan voters in California these last three decades.

In short: Democrats are more liberal, Republicans are more conservative, and hot button issues have little chance of striking consensus. And some of the only unanimity is found in pessimism.
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This morning brings the latest in a series of studies that shows how different the people who actually vote in California are from the state's population as a whole. It also shows how different those voters are than the ones who cast ballots 30 years ago.

Those conclusions come courtesy of the nonpartisan Field Poll, whose data points should remind every observer of California politics that you can learn a lot about where we're headed by knowing who's at the wheel.
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A lot has already been written about today's Field Poll and the sense that a big thumping could be in the making for all but the most marshmallowy of the May 19 budget ballot measures.

That may be. But let's dig into the numbers for a couple of ponderables, including even a few that hint all might not be decided.
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If there is any silver lining in a new public poll for supporters of the six budget related measures on the May 19 ballot, maybe it's this: fewer than one in five likely voters are "very closely" following news about the special election.

In other words, maybe there's still time.

But that's about it on the good news front from the new Public Policy Institute of California survey. There appear to be some real concerns out there about Propositions 1A through 1E. (Proposition 1F, a no-brainer that bans lawmaker pay hikes in deficit years, is wildly -- and unsurprisingly -- popular.)
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Talk about a poll that only prompts more speculation.

Today's Field Poll on the potential matchups of Democrats and Republicans for next year's race for governor is proof positive that this race is wide open. An awful lot of presumed and possible candidates, but anyone's guess as to how it will all shake out.
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The first public polls on any ballot measures before election day should usually be taken with a grain of salt; after all, the voters still don't know very much about the proposals, and the election is usually a long ways off.

That's not altogether true in the poll out today.
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Californians sure are caught up in this hope and change vibe in politics. But only when it applies to what's happening in the nation's capital, not the state capital.

That's one of the conclusions to draw from tonight's new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California. Most striking: 79% of those surveyed believe Barack Obama will be a "strong and capable president." And lest you think that's being driven by the state's majority Democrats, the poll found 66% of Republicans feel the same way.

73% say they think the nation will unite behind the man from Illinois; only 44% said the same about his predecessor, the man from Texas, in 2001.

But asked about the men and women in charge of state government, and things get ugly. Governor Schwarzenegger's job approval rating is down to 40% in the new PPIC poll, and just 30% on specifically his handling of jobs and the economy. In January 2007, when he began his second term, Schwarzenegger's overall approval rating stood at 58%.

21% approval for the Legislature overall; a measly 15% approve their work on jobs and the economy.

Worse still, 75% think the state is headed in the wrong direction, and most think the state budget fiasco is a big deal. And how would they solve it? A mix of spending cuts and tax increases was the most picked choice (44%). Also worth noting: while K-12 education was most chosen as the part of the budget to protect from the axe, health and human services was second among all subgroups... again, including Republicans. Least desired to be protected by all groups: prison spending.

The governor's proposal to temporarily increase the state sales tax to help solve the problem is okay with 52% of those surveyed; his call to possibly shorten the school year to save money was roundly rejected by 63%.

And the result that will no doubt get the tongues wagging among those who hate the state's supermajority budget vote requirement: 54% of respondents favor reducing it to a 55% vote in each house of the Legislature, an eight point uptick since 2003.

Schwarzenegger was asked about that today during his appearance at the Sacramento Press Club (yes, we get the polls early and thus ask about it before we can ever actually report the results). His response? Fix other things, from redistricting to the polarized political primary system, first. "I think it's not the two-thirds vote that is the problem, I think that the political system that we have in place is really the problem," he said.

It's worth noting that PPIC's poll does not ask whether voters would change the requirement of a supermajority vote on tax increases. Remember that without this provision of Proposition 13 being changed, the current $40 billion budget mess still would need GOP support if the solution includes taxes... that is, unless the Democratic no-GOP-tax plan was resurrected.

And before those on the left get too excited about the willingness to consider scrapping the supermajority budget vote, they should note another PPIC poll finding: 70% say they support a strict limit on annual state spending increases. That sounds like a new spending cap... one of the issues being demanded by Republican legislators.

If you're looking for the voters to figure this one out, it would seem, keep on looking.

Tonight's new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California is, as always, chock full of items that are worth mulling over: a bitterly divided state over the issue of gay marriage, lousy approval ratings for the governor and legislators, and a better sense of who voted for whom in the race for the White House.

A lot of that will be covered by the rest of the news biz, which sent me looking for some other morsels, like this one: we Californians still love our initiatives.

Maybe not individual ballot initiatives, but the system itself. PPIC found 67% of those surveyed were either somewhat satisfied or very satisfied with the initiative process. That's consistent with their polling from two years ago, but a much warmer and fuzzy feeling about initiatives than voters expressed after Governor Schwarzenegger's 2005 special election.

The most satisified subgroup? Independent voters, of which 73% surveyed give the process a thumbs up.

That being said, it's still interesting how many grumblings there are about a process people like. All subgroups agree there could be changes to the initiative system, though Democrats (42%) want major changes more than anyone else. 51% of respondents overall say there was too much money spent on initiative campaigns in 2008, and almost a third "strongly" agreed that the wording of the measures was too complicated.

So what would folks change? 84% said there should be more disclosure of campaign money, including signature gathering. And 72% of those surveyed believe the opposing sides in an initiative campaign should have to participate in a series... a series... of televised debates (I have to believe the euphoria of a fascinating presidential election has some folks forgetting what they really watch when the clicker is in their hand).

It's hard to know why the love affair (or maybe love/hate affair) with initiatives still continues, but here's one guess, based on info in this poll: when asked who they trust more to make public policy -- lawmakers in Sacramento or voters at the ballot box -- PPIC's respondents chose... themselves. Using the scores from two levels of trust, it's 37% for elected officials, 52% for Joe and Jane Public.

That may say more than anything about why direct democracy is alive and well in California.

BUDGET DAY PLUS 22 -- The old joke, in various forms, is that if a politician wants a friend, he or she should get a dog. That's good advice for state legislators and Governor Schwarzenegger if today's Field Poll is any indication.

Californians remain grumpy, as they have been for months, about the direction of the state and of the job performance of their elected officials. And the new survey is more of the same: even lower approval ratings for the guv (40%) and the Legislature (27%).

The budget standoff seems to be exacerbating things; not only do 68% of those surveyed think the $15.2 billion shortfall is "very serious," but 41% say they don't have much confidence in Schwarzenegger's ability to resolve it and 52% say the same thing about the 120 members of the Legislature.

No word on the opinions voiced by the dogs...