The sun is up, the polls are opening across the Golden State, and for political watchers one of the most interesting California primaries in modern times is finally here.

It's going to be a long day, especially for the political operatives who have pulled marathon days in support of both presidential candidates and ballot measure campaigns. That's because their job is now done... and it's all in the hands of the voters.

And there should be a lot of voters. The venerable Field Poll is predicting almost 9 million votes will be cast in California, which adds up to about 56% of the state's registered voters. One would guess that, should this estimate hold, a large number of those voters are weighing in on the most interesting presidential race in a generation. As noted here just the other day, some 400,000 Californians have registered to vote in just the last few weeks.

My KQED colleagues and I will be on the air tonight with a special election night edition of The California Report, airing on most public radio stations from San Diego to the Oregon border (station info here).

A few random thoughts as I contemplate whether to wear Mardi Gras beads with my "I Voted" sticker today...

* The Early Votes: There are estimates that suggest while a lot of Californians are voting by mail this time around, many of them had yet to turn in their ballot by today. Nonetheless, a lot of folks did vote early... and one has to wonder who won those early votes. While the Democratic presidential contest comes to mind first here (and the big lead that Hillary Clinton had in the California polls until just recently), there's also been substantial movement on ballot measures in recent weeks -- most notably, the term limits modification Proposition 93. Our best chance for assessing those early votes will come just after 8:00 p.m., when local elections officials release the only numbers they have at that point: those votes that were mailed and tabulated before today.

* Voting Changes: The most frustrated group on this election night may be those of us in the news media. That's because the many changes in voting systems this time around may push definitive results in close races into the wee hours. Several vote-rich counties are back to paper ballots after Secretary of State Debra Bowen's decision last summer to decertify most electronic touchscreen voting machines. And should some of the replacement systems stumble, there could be a lot of crticism of the voting process in the next few days.

* What If: I can't help but be struck by what voters are not considering today on the ballot. First on this list is the non-binding ballot measure that would have asked Californians whether they favor an immediate withdrawal from the war in Iraq. You may remember that the advisory measure, championed by Senate President pro Tem Don Perata and approved by the Legislature, was vetoed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. But suppose he had allowed it on the ballot; how might that have driven the anti-war votes toward a candidate like, say, Barack Obama?

The "what if" category also has to include one of today's biggest subplots: the decision by the state GOP to exclude independent voters from the party's presidential primary. Democrats are allowing so-called "decline to state" voters to participate, but the Reeps are holding a closed primary. That means the man who had the most to gain from independent voters, GOP front-runner John McCain, now may find himself in a tight race... or even losing the California primary... to the more conservative candidate Mitt Romney.

* The Arnold Factor: No election analysis in California is complete these days without wondering about the impact of our most high-profile politician. Schwarzenegger's endorsement of McCain may not have been as big as it could have been if, as discussed above, independent voters could have weighed in on the race; after all, those voters are a core constituency of the governor. Schwarzenegger's real impact will be watched tonight in the ballot measures. Can he help carry Prop 93, the term limits change, over the goal line with his late-in-the-game campaigning? And what about the four Indian casino referendums, Propositions 94 through 97? While the TV ads both pro and con have helped push the campaign into record breaking territory for political spending, the deals are the handiwork of the Schwarzenegger administration. Will voters see them as a worthwhile and substantial infusion of cash for the state? Or will they decide that the deals represent an over-expansion of gambling and not nearly enough cash in exchange for more lucrative slot machines?

* Ms. Schwarzenegger? And lastly... we know the governor is a McCain Man. And this weekend, we discovered that First Lady Maria Shriver has decided to vote for Obama. That's two votes in the Schwarzenegger household. But what about the newest voting member of the family, 18-year old Katherine Schwarzenegger, who gets to cast her first vote today? Good thing it's a secret ballot.