The narrative making its way through the Capitol this week is that the debate over health care reform, now down to the final days on the legislative calendar, has parallels to another last-minute deal struck in Sacramento.

The question is… which one?

Some say just look at last year’s global warming law, AB 32, and you’ll see how good things can happen as a result of last-minute negotiations. Others, though, say look at 1996’s energy deregulation fiasco, and you’ll see how bad things can happen in the final hours.

(To be fair, there are some that say AB 32’s impact is far from certain… ergo, it’s unfair to already call that “good.” So noted.)

For now, both theories are worth considering, because the health care debate is far from over… and yet legislators are scheduled to close up shop on September 14.

This morning, Governor Schwarzenegger and the four legislative leaders met for about an hour to discuss the status of health care reform. Speaking to reporters afterward, legislators described the meeting in terms that made the confab sound like it was only a general, even vague, overview.

And so two essential political questions remain unanswered: can Schwarzenegger find common ground with majority Democrats? And can either find common ground with minority Republicans?

For their part, Democrats sound as though they’re urging the governor to stop trying to persuade Republicans. “That’s the only solution I see right now,” said Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez after the meeting. “Whether you agree or disagree with the Republican leaders, they have a point of view. And at some point, you’ve got to know when to stop barking up that tree.”

That “point of view,” say Republicans, is that the Democratic leadership’s bill and the governor’s own proposal are wrong to impose some sort of fee/tax/levy/assessment on either businesses or health care professionals.

Those objections have caused the Democratic leadership’s bill, AB 8, to be written in a way that only requires a simple majority to be placed on the governor’s desk. “We will give him the best work product we can, as a majority vote bill,” said Senate President pro Tem Don Perata.

Republicans admit they won’t vote for anything that smells like a tax, including a new proposal floated by the California Restaurant Association to hike the sales tax a penny and use the money for health care.

“I don’t think taxes, in general, are the way to solve the problem,” said Assembly GOP Leader Mike Villines.

And to put an even more fine point on it, Republican leaders suggested focusing on smaller pieces of the issue, like health savings accounts or expanding access to clinics.

“We suggested the governor may want to look at aspects of all the plans,” said Senate GOP Leader Dick Ackerman. “I don’t think we can get the entire plan done this year.”

So they’re telling Arnold Schwarzenegger to think smaller, not bigger? If so, that may be the toughest sell of all.