There are 100 seats in the California Legislature on the November 7 ballot. But thanks to a lot districts drawn safely for incumbents of both parties, there are very few truly competitive races to watch.
How few? Well, using what might be called a 'Money Index' based on campaign finance statements for the first 27 days of October, there are only five that are truly competitive right now.
Yep, only 5% of the legislative races seem to be truly up for grabs.
Money, of course, is not the only marker to measure competitiveness. But the political parties and their wealthy benefactors don't intentionally throw money at a losing horse, especially in the final weeks of a campaign. So in inverse order, here are the five big races...
#5: Assembly District 30
This Central Valley district has always been a tough race for two-term Democratic incumbent Nicole Parra. This year, she faces GOP challenger Danny Gilmore. As of today, Parra has raised about $775,000 in October, compared to about $350,000 by Gilmore. That's still a lot of cash, but not compared to the others on this list.
#4: Assembly District 80
This Palm Springs-area district also features an often-targeted incumbent, Republican Bonnie Garcia. This year, she faces a rematch with Democrat Steve Clute. This is the first of two lopsided cash contests in the month of October, as Democrats must once again smell blood. In the last 27 days, they've given Clute $1.28 million... compared to Garcia's October fundraising of about $461,000. One wonders what role in all of that was played by Garcia's recent controversial comments about the governor, which sparked a pretty provocative mailer from Democrats (see Bob Salladay's LA Times blog for a good overview of the fracas).
#3: Assembly District 78
This San Diego district features yet another incumbent who often faces tight races, GOP incumbent Shirley Horton. This time, she faces Democratic challenger Maxine Sherard. But this race wins the 'Something Must Be Cooking Here' Award. That's because as of September 30, Sherard's campaign had only raised about $112,000 this year. But as of today, her October contributions total $1,299,460.28.
Yowza. That means the Democrat has raised in October more than 10 times what she had raised the entire nine months before. Horton's campaign statements show October receipts just shy of $377,000. This, by the way, is another legislative district with a very large number of nonpartisan ("decline to state") voters.
#2: Assembly District 17
The Stockton-to-Merced district, where the Democratic incumbent is termed out, has been a slugfest between Democrat Cathleen Galgiani and Republican Gerry Machado. And the Dems have outspent the GOP this month, funneling $1.74 million into Galgiani's campaign since October 1. But Republicans haven't given up; just today (Friday) the party wrote Machado a check for $531,000. That single contribution represents more than half of his October fundraising total ($890, 400).
And the 'Money Index' winner...
#1: Senate District 34 This Orange County contest is very tight in terms of party registration, with Dems slightly outpacing Republicans. And as with other races, the large number of independent voters here could play a big role. The district, home to a termed-out Democrat, is being battled for by Democrat Lou Correa and Republican Lynn Daucher. Both served previous stints in the Assembly, and word is that both are getting help from platoons of party volunteers who are heading to the OC to pitch in. Both campaigns are also attracting a lot of cash. The combined fundraising for this Senate seat in the first 27 days of October: about $2.76 million. Of that, Correa ($1.69 million) has raised more than Daucher ($1.07 million).
Two things are clear about these races. First, Democrats are being forced to defend three of the five seats. But they also have outpaced the GOP in fundraising in each of the five this month, presumably in hopes of running the table and increasing their majorities in both legislative chambers.
