Ask anyone who's either involved in politics or watches it for a living, and sooner or later you'll hear them use this equation.

And the two polls out this morning are probably going to hammer home this same idea when it comes to the November 7 contest featuring Arnold Schwarzenegger vs. Phil Angelides.

In fact, the echo chamber of politics will loudly proclaim this race all but over-- so loudly, in fact, that folks at Angelides' campaign HQ will be scrambling for the earplugs.

Today's Field Poll gives Schwarzenegger a 10 point lead. Today's Public Policy Institute of California poll (not fully released until tonight) pegs it at a 17 point lead.

Field's polling the past seven months has shown that the only thing more tepid than support for Schwarzenegger has been the support for Angelides. In February, the governor was at 39%... and so was Angelides. But now, Schwarzenegger is drawing 44% of the surveyed likely voters while Angelides actually fell to 34%.

PPIC has the overall percentages at 48%-31%.

Now, all this having been said, the details-- at least in the Field Poll-- show that Angelides' hopes should not be completely dashed. First, there are still a lot of undecideds... 15% of all likely voters are a tossup. So are 17% of coastal voters (where most votes are in California), and a full 20% of Latino voters. The governor's only solid support is among older, white, inland voters.

But again, the equation that began this posting is paramount. Field's new poll even asked it as a question of the voters surveyed: who do you think will win the race?

67% of all likely voters say it will be... well, you can fill in the rest.