That's What Friends Are For
The TV ads being released today by the group of labor unions that roughed up Arnold Schwarzenegger last year seem to raise two important political points on this day-- exactly six weeks from the November 7 election.
Point #1: Even though they are (by definition) an independent expenditure, they nonetheless provide a long-awaited financial boost for the media campaign of Democratic challenger Phil Angelides.
Point #2: They mark the return of the only campaign theme with a proven chance of putting a dent into the armor of the incumbent Schwarzenegger... the notion that he's not turned out to be the guy voters thought they were getting in 2003.
The first point these ads, from the union groups known as the Alliance for a Better California, make is a big one. Even though campaigns tire of political reporters writing about fundraising, the reality is that getting one's message out means having enough money for that message to be heard. And a quick check of official records shows that since June 30, Angelides' campaign has raised a little more than $5.5 million, compared to almost $10.7 million raised in the same period of time by the governor's campaign. The ABC effort, combined with ads paid for by the Democratic party, may give Angelides a chance to begin a new dialogue with voters about Schwarzenegger's record.
On the second point, there's a lot of chatter in political circles about the effectiveness of the Angelides media strategy so far-- a strategy that's largely been about trying to link Schwarzenegger to President George W. Bush. Is it working? The conventional wisdom among many is that it is not. However, we're likely to get some fresh data on this later this week in a new statewide poll.
But the new ABC ads go directly back at the strategy that left Schwarzenegger batting .000 after the 2005 special election.
The new ads are on the group's website (they are the first two ads found here). They attack go after everything from Schwarzenegger's fundraising to his infamous comments in 2004 about "kicking their butts" that became a rallying cry for the protesters he was referring to at the time, members of the California Nurses Association.
(Interestingly enough, the 2006 edition of the event where that comment was made got underway this morning in Los Angeles.)
In fact, one of these ads is almost a carbon copy of one of the early 2005 ads (click here to see it). While the governor has resolved some of the issues debated last year, including the much disputed borrowing of money from K-12 education, the union strategy is clearly an effort to convince voters that Schwarzenegger's mea culpa doesn't erase what happened.
"We had to sue [Schwarzenegger] to get the [school] funding back," says teacher Carlos Rico in one of the new ads.
And if there's real money behind these ads, i.e. a statewide blitz that runs several weeks, things could get interesting.
