If There’s A Silver Lining…
in the new Field Poll out today for Phil Angelides, it may be this: given the depth of data showing renewed support for Arnold Schwarzenegger, the poll shows the Democratic challenger down by only 7 points.
Like I said, that may be the good news.
The new survey finds Governor Schwarzenegger with solid support not only among his fellow Republicans, but also from 16% of Democrats surveyed and 36% of independent voters.
In addition, Field finds that the governor is winning among female voters (43-41), a traditional key voting bloc for Democrats. And for the candidate who has reveled in the moniker of the Anti-Arnold, perhaps a case of ‘be careful what you wish for’: 65% of Angelides supporters say they’re really only casting a vote against Schwarzenegger.
But perhaps most intriguing: 41% of voters who identify themselves as living in “union households” say they intend to vote for the governor, the man who most of those unions fought tooth and nail in 2005.
That being said, there are other stats in the Field Poll that seem to leave at least a few question marks for Team Arnold. First, the poll suggests he’s tanking with Latino voters– those surveyed say they prefer Angelides, 58% to 22%. And two issues the governor has spent a lot of time talking about– taxes and the environment– are lagging behind issues like education and health care. Who knows where energy will be on that list should the summer heat continue.
Education, however, is (just barely) no longer the #1 issue on the minds of those surveyed: now, it’s illegal immigration. Given how divisive and complicated the issue is, it just may drive the next leg of the race in a way no candidate can currently predict.
Early reaction from the Angelides camp to the Field poll is that, in part, their man has been outspent in the early TV ad game by almost 15-to-1 and is still within striking range.
The poll will be online later this morning here.
[EPILOGUE: A reader asks why no one is talking about the seemingly wide discrepancy between the Field Poll and the Zogby poll, mentioned here yesterday. Good point. In fact, looking at the margin of error for Field (+/- 3.8%), it’s possible the race between Schwarzenegger and Angelides is actually tied. Of course, it’s also possible that the governor is ahead by 11 points, again using the extremes in the margin of error. It should also be noted that Field and Zogby use different polling methods, with Zogby using the internet to find its voters and Field the traditional phone call. Reporters and political spinners like polls; but even pollsters say their surveys are, at best, a snapshot in time. –JM]


