July 31, 2006

Fast Cash

The latest campaign finance reports have now been filed. And as always, there are noteworthy items to be found somewhere below the headlines.

Of course, the headlines are going to get the attention of political watchers: the campaigns of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic challenger Phil Angelides raised a combined total of some $9.3 million in the 40 days covered in the latest filings.

Angelides raised slightly more than Schwarzenegger; but Schwarzenegger ended the period with a lot more money left in the bank... some $3.3 million, compared to only about $726,000 left in Angelides' coffers.

(It should be remembered that these reports only go as far as June 30, and the last 31 days have seen both campaigns rake in a lot more dough).

Elsewhere...

* Schwarzenegger continues to spend more on campaign operations than his opponent. The governor's records also show the continuation of controversial political consulting fees to his taxpayer-hired Chief of Staff, Susan Kennedy. Kennedy was paid $15,000 in the May 21-June 30 reporting period.

* Angelides spent more than $7.4 million in the reporting period, and most of it went to a TV ad campaign that was still overshadowed by Schwarzenegger and the California Republican Party. Records show Angelides' campaign spent at least $6 million alone on TV ads, payments made through his top political consultants.

* In the race for lieutenant governor, the two major candidates are raising money-- and spending it-- at differing speeds. Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, the Democratic nominee, has raised more money than his GOP challenger, Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks). Garamendi took in $590,000 in the reporting period, and has raised almost $1.5 million for the year; McClintock raised a little more than $385,000 this period, and about $983,000 so far this year. But the fiscally conservative McClintock seems to be holding his campaign to the same frugal lifestyle, with about $1.5 million still sitting in the bank. Garamendi's cash balance as of June 30 was about $408,000.

* And as for the two major political parties, the reports show how significantly the state GOP dipped into its piggy bank to help promote Schwarzenegger in TV ads in recent weeks. The campaign report shows the California Republican Party spending more than $7.1 million in the filing period, compared to a little more than $1.5 million spent by the California Democratic Party in the same time period. And while the GOP has outdistanced the Dems in total amount raised this year, the Dems reported almost $9 million in the bank as of June 30... compared to the Republicans with about $3 million.

(A hat tip to CN's summer intern, Alicia Bell, for monitoring the reports as they came in today)

July 28, 2006

No Slam Dunks For Bond Measures

If you apply the conventional wisdom about a California ballot measure-- that anything polling below 60% in the early days could face trouble-- then the infrastructure bonds on the November ballot are a long ways away from a sure thing.

That's the news in this morning's Field Poll.

The poll finds that none of the four bonds placed on the ballot by the Legislature and Governor Schwarzenegger, totaling some $37 billion, are at or above the magic 60% threshold. In fact, three of the bond proposals are below 50% support.

In the best shape, according to Field, is Prop 1B-- the $19.9 transportation bond, with 54% of those surveyed approving. In order of support after that: Prop 1D ($10.4 billion education bond, 48% support), Prop 1E ($4.1 billion flood protection, 47% support), and last place going to Prop 1C ($2.8 billion affordable housing bond, only 33% support).

For each bond, there are also a number of voters who remain undecided (1 in 4 voters asked about the housing bond are in this category). And several seem to have lost support since Field asked the same questions in May, with the biggest drop in support for the flood protection bond (from 58% support to 47% support).

The campaign team for these bond measures is still being assembled, and will reportedly be a bipartisan effort by some of the state's most successful political consultants. For now, it seems they have their work cut out for them.

The full poll will be online later this morning here.

July 26, 2006

An Even Larger Lead?

This is the week of polls in the race for governor, and the just released survey from the Public Policy Institute of California packs a wallop: a 13 point lead for Arnold Schwarzenegger over Phil Angelides.

Among all likely voters, the governor comes in with 43%, Angelides with 30%, 8% favoring someone else (and half of those for recurring Green Party candidate Peter Camejo), and19% undecided. The margin of error in this case is 3%... which means any way you slice it, the governor's out in front.

The PPIC survey is mainly focused on environmental issues. And while the governor has been dubbed one of the greenest GOP elected officials around, he's not always been seen that way in previous polls. But in this survey, there's an impression that he may not be a problem any more. Among those voters who said that a candidate's environmental positions are "somewhat important," Schwarzenegger is favored by 55%. Compare that to voters ranking the issue "very important"-- that group favors Angelides, but not as heavily (44%).

Again, polls are only a snapshot in time of public opinion. But this poll comes only one day after the Field Poll also showed Schwarzenegger gaining ground. The PPIC poll also shows the governor's job approval ratings growing, with 49% of likely voters surveyed saying they like what he's doing.

Some other snippets from the poll:

* Proposition 87, the initiative to impose a tax on oil drilling that would fund alternative energy research, appears to be in good shape. 61% of those surveyed say they support it; even 51% of Republicans surveyed said they would vote yes.

* Global warming seems to be slightly more of a worry among voters; but more interesting is the sentiment among those polled that California is right to tackle the issue on its own. 65% of those surveyed said they support the state making its own policies on the issue, separate from the federal government.

July 25, 2006

Burton and Brulte, Together Again

The two former leaders of the California Senate, who used to sit across a table and debate the state budget, will now apparently sit across a table at some point and debate... debates.

Word is that the campaign of Democrat Phil Angelides has tapped former Senate President Pro Tem John Burton to be their negotiator for gubernatorial campaign debates this fall. That follows the announcement several weeks ago that handling the negotiations for incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger would be a team that includes former Senate GOP Leader Jim Brulte.

Burton is an interesting choice, in that he was probably the Democrat who got along best with Schwarzenegger during the governor's first two years in Sacramento.

Angelides' camp says he's accepted 9 debate invitations so far from media organizations.

As for Team Arnold, they say they're ready to sit down and negotiate. "Since the end of the Democratic primary, our campaign has been eager to begin a serious discussion about debating in the fall," said campaign communications director Katie Levinson.

"It Was The Wrong Decision"

That's what Governor Schwarzenegger said yesterday about his vote in favor of Proposition 187 in 1994, a ballot measure that has long fueled Latino voter anger at the Republican party.

In an interview with the editorial board of La Opinion, Schwarzenegger said he does not support denial of health care benefits to undocumented immigrants. And asked specifically about his support for Prop 187, the governor said: "I think looking back, it was the wrong decision."

Schwarzenegger went on to talk about the importance of the Latino community. His comments come as this morning's Field Poll (see earlier post) shows many Latinos surveyed are opposing his re-election.

La Opinion is a Spanish language newspaper in Los Angeles; the story (in Spanish) is here, but the audio of Schwarzenegger speaking about Prop 187 is also on the webpage.

Governor's Trip To Mexico Delayed

Word is that Governor Schwarzenegger's high profile trade mission to Mexico will not happen next month, and will be delayed until after the November 7 gubernatorial election.

The governor's press secretary, Margita Thompson, made the announcement this morning at her weekly media briefing. Thompson said that the decision to postpone was made due to the still uncertain outcome of Mexico's presidential election between Felipe Calderon and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Calderon appeared to have won a narrow victory three weeks ago, but Lopez Obrador has appealed those results to Mexican election officials.

Schwarzenegger was scheduled to travel to Mexico City in late August, but now will likely make the trip sometime in November. "The desire was to not interfere with [Mexico's] democratic process," said Thompson.

If There's A Silver Lining…

in the new Field Poll out today for Phil Angelides, it may be this: given the depth of data showing renewed support for Arnold Schwarzenegger, the poll shows the Democratic challenger down by only 7 points.

Like I said, that may be the good news.

The new survey finds Governor Schwarzenegger with solid support not only among his fellow Republicans, but also from 16% of Democrats surveyed and 36% of independent voters.

In addition, Field finds that the governor is winning among female voters (43-41), a traditional key voting bloc for Democrats. And for the candidate who has reveled in the moniker of the Anti-Arnold, perhaps a case of 'be careful what you wish for': 65% of Angelides supporters say they're really only casting a vote against Schwarzenegger.

But perhaps most intriguing: 41% of voters who identify themselves as living in "union households" say they intend to vote for the governor, the man who most of those unions fought tooth and nail in 2005.

That being said, there are other stats in the Field Poll that seem to leave at least a few question marks for Team Arnold. First, the poll suggests he's tanking with Latino voters-- those surveyed say they prefer Angelides, 58% to 22%. And two issues the governor has spent a lot of time talking about-- taxes and the environment-- are lagging behind issues like education and health care. Who knows where energy will be on that list should the summer heat continue.

Education, however, is (just barely) no longer the #1 issue on the minds of those surveyed: now, it's illegal immigration. Given how divisive and complicated the issue is, it just may drive the next leg of the race in a way no candidate can currently predict.

Early reaction from the Angelides camp to the Field poll is that, in part, their man has been outspent in the early TV ad game by almost 15-to-1 and is still within striking range.

The poll will be online later this morning here.

[EPILOGUE: A reader asks why no one is talking about the seemingly wide discrepancy between the Field Poll and the Zogby poll, mentioned here yesterday. Good point. In fact, looking at the margin of error for Field (+/- 3.8%), it's possible the race between Schwarzenegger and Angelides is actually tied. Of course, it's also possible that the governor is ahead by 11 points, again using the extremes in the margin of error. It should also be noted that Field and Zogby use different polling methods, with Zogby using the internet to find its voters and Field the traditional phone call. Reporters and political spinners like polls; but even pollsters say their surveys are, at best, a snapshot in time. --JM]

July 24, 2006

New Poll, Tight Race?

The latest public poll in the race for governor shows a tight race, but gives a slight edge to Democrat Phil Angelides over Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Today's Zogby poll, mainly conducted online, shows Angelides at 44% and Schwarzenegger at 42.3%. Of course, the margin of error in the poll is +/- 3.5%, so at best the poll seems to suggest a close race.

This is the second recent public poll suggesting a neck-and-neck race, but is contrary to the poll from San Jose State University at the end of June showing Schwarzenegger with a 7 point lead.

More on the Zogby poll can be found here.

July 21, 2006

Political Jabs

A couple of early round punches were thrown today in the race for governor: one from Democrats against Governor Schwarzenegger, and another that certainly seemed like a jab from the governor towards challenger Phil Angelides.

The California Democratic Party paid for the most notable swing-- a new TV ad that's reportedly airing across the state this weekend. The ad takes aim right at what Democrats think is a soft spot on Schwarzenegger: his frequent budget proposals in years past aimed at trimming what the state spends on social services.

"When Governor Schwarzenegger tried to take away property tax relief for seniors, raised college tuition and fees, made drastic cuts to healthcare and schools, Phil Angelides led the fight to stop him," says the ad.

You can see the ad later today here, so we're told.

On the governor's end, the punch was a bit less direct, coming in this morning's news conference regarding his decision to approve a loan of state cash for stem cell research (reported here yesterday).

Schwarzenegger was explaining why he stepped forward, when he made a comment that the "Treasurer" (Angelides, not referred to by name, mind you) had experienced difficulty selling the bond anticipation notes that were authorized last year.

"That's why we came to the rescue," the governor said.

Fighters, take to your corners.

July 20, 2006

Governor OK's Stem Cell Loan

Governor Schwarzenegger has decided to wade into this week's hot button debate over stem cell research. Today, he authorized a loan to the state's new stem cell institute of $150 million in taxpayer funds, while the billions of dollars in bonds approved by voters in 2004 remain tied up in litigation.

In a letter to his Finance Director Mike Genest, the governor directed a loan be made to the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM), the state agency created when voters approved Proposition 71 in 2004. Prop 71 authorized the sale of $3 billion in bonds to create a new stem cell research effort, with the CIRM and a citizens oversight board leading up an effort to award grants to stem cell researchers.

But the $3 billion in bonds have never been sold, due to a lawsuit that challenged their legality under the California constitution. The plaintiffs lost the first round in court earlier this year, but have appealed that decision.

The Schwarzenegger decision, interestingly enough, is linked to a similar effort to provide a kind of 'bridge loan' to the CIRM by state Treasurer and gubernatorial challenger Phil Angelides. Last year, Angelides helped enact a plan to get as much as $200 million to the CIRM through the sale of bond anticipation notes.

Schwarzenegger's letter today says that about $150 million of those notes remain up for grabs; his action apparently means that the state government will buy them itself.

Last week, Schwarzenegger wrote to President Bush asking him to not veto the stem cell legislation approved in Congress-- a request Bush ignored yesterday in nixing the proposal.

"I remain committed to advancing stem cell research in California," Schwarzenegger said in a written statement today, "in the promise it holds for millions of our citizens who suffer from chronic diseases and injuries that could be helped as a result of stem cell research."

There's no question that today's loan decision is interesting as a policy matter. But it also has political ramifications, especially for a Republican governor running for re-election... and eager to remind voters that he's more of a moderate than many in his party.

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