June 2, 2006

Field: Dead Heat, Arnold’s Favorables

In regards to the Democratic race for governor, one sentence in today's Field Poll says it all:

"During the sixty-year history of The Field Poll there never has been as large a proportion of voters undecided so close to the election in a top-of-the-ticket major party primary."

The final public poll before Tuesday's gubernatorial primary offers a true split decision for rivals Phil Angelides and Steve Westly: Westly 35%, Angelides 34%, 5% for other candidates... and a whopping 26% undecided.

That's a lot of soul searching for the weekend before election day.

You can find the entire poll later this morning here.

While that's undoubtedly the big news from the poll, what's also interesting is the apparent silver lining for Arnold Schwarzenegger. Not only does Field find the governor leading both Democrats in hypothetical matchups (2 points over Westly, 7 over Angelides), but it also finds that voters in general are more favorable towards the Republican incumbent than they've been in quite some time.

And what's more, the real redemption has come from non-partisan voters. In Field's February poll, only 34% of "decline to state" voters had a favorable impression of the governor. Today, 46% of the same group has a favorable impression. Those voters are a key constituency. Not only did they vote in large numbers for Schwarzenegger in 2003, but nearly 1 of every 5 voters in California now declines to declare a party affiliation.

June 1, 2006

Operation Jump Start

That's the name the U.S. Department of Defense has assigned to the deployment of National Guard troops to the Mexico border, according to the agreement that will govern the Guard mission.

The deployment ground rules are laid out in what's known as a memorandum of agreement (MOA) between federal defense officials and the governors of California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas.

The two page document, which has not been signed by all parties and therefore not been officially released, says that any Guard troops assigned to border duty outside of their state will be jointly controlled by the governors of both states.

So for example, if California National Guard troops are needed in Texas, the language of the MOA implies that the state's troops would be under the command of Governor Schwarzenegger for "administrative purposes" while Texas Governor Rick Perry would assume "operational control" over the troops. But it remains to be seen exactly what that kind of split control would mean in practical terms.

The MOA also addresses the controversial issue of Guard troops being used as law enforcement agents. While Schwarzenegger told reporters today that kind of assignment will not happen, the MOA only says that such an assignment would require the approval of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. It should be noted that Rumsfeld's approval may still not be enough, on its own, for troops to undertake that role. But if other steps are required, they are not spelled out in the MOA.

The document, according to Guard officers who testified before a state Senate hearing on Wednesday, has been the subject of lengthy discussions and negotiations ever since President Bush's border proposal was announced two weeks ago.

"I’m The Commander-In-Chief"

When Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger announced this afternoon that he has agreed to send 1000 of the state's National Guard troops to the Mexico border, it was clear that he-- and not the federal government-- will retain the authority to decide what those troops will do, and how long they will do it.

The governor told Capitol reporters this afternoon that he will sign a memorandum of understanding with federal officials in support of President Bush's call for Guard troops to assist agents of the U.S. Border Patrol. Since the President's announcement two weeks ago, Schwarzenegger and California National Guard leaders have huddled to figure out exactly how to make it work.

The assignment, though, is still not official: the governor's aides say he has not yet signed the documents or given any official Guard orders, as the final details are still being sorted out.

And while he said the mission will end no later than December 31, 2008, it sounded as though it could end sooner, if he doesn't like the way the state's troops are being used.

"I'm the commander-in-chief," he said, "so I can take back the National Guard at any time that I want."

Schwarzenegger said he has also been assured by the White House that the feds will, in fact, pick up the tab for the mission. The cost for the California portion of the assignment alone: $6-8 million per month, according to Guard officers who briefed reporters this afternoon.

As for mission duties, the governor confirmed it will be only to support Border Patrol agents-- not to conduct actual law enforcement activities. "We do not want to militarize the border zone," he said.

Other details: the deployment is scheduled to begin July 15... the National Guard will ask for volunteers, who will serve tours that are likely between 6 months and 1 year... the agreement with the federal government will be signed by Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England... and while unlikely, it is possible that California troops could be deployed to one of the three other border states if their skills are needed there.

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