Governor Schwarzenegger didn't mention his Democratic opponent by name during this week's campaign bus tour. But his new TV ad does, and today his top strategists vowed to go right at the dreaded "T" word.

Taxes.

Schwarzenegger's TV ads hit the airwaves today, though the campaign refuses to say how large of an 'ad buy' they've made (note: political reporters always ask about the size of the ad purchase to determine whether the ads are really intended for broadcast, or rather for reporters to write about them... thereby getting a lot of 'free' media coverage).

You can view the new ads here. Ad #1 is a feel good ad, of which its Spanish version includes an extra snippet about the money the governor restored to education funding. Ad#2 is the critical ad, likening Phil Angelides' campaign as an effort to take the state "backwards" to its deficit-ridden past.

And key to the anti-Angelides ad is the issue of taxes. Team Arnold repeats the charge that the Democratic nominee wants to raise $10 billion in taxes. But does he really?

"I think this matter is largely settled," said campaign manager Steve Schmidt, in response to a barrage of reporter questions this morning about the validity of that number. Campaign strategist Matthew Dowd attempted to put the question in broader terms. "It's a difference in philosophy," he said.

So is the $10 billion estimate legit? Depends on whose numbers you use, and what you're counting. In my own reporting during the weeks before the Democratic primary, I came up with a smaller number, based on the following Angelides campaign promises:

* Rescind all Schwarzenegger-era tuition increases at UC, CSU, community colleges AND increase student enrollment by 20,000 students: approximately $1 billion (source: LAO)

* More high school counselors, more teacher training: $500 million (source: Angelides campaign)

* Expansion of state-run health care for kids: $130 million in year 1 (source: legislative analysis)

* Pay back school funding borrowing in 2 years, versus Schwarzenegger's 7 year payback plan: $1.6 billion in year 1 (source: education interest groups)

Add those up, tack on the projected 2007-08 deficit of $3.5 billion, and you get about $6.7 billion in needed revenues.

The Schwarzenegger campaign is also tacking on the cost of Proposition 82, the universal preschool proposal voters rejected... but Angelides endorsed. Is that fair, even though Prop 82's no longer on the table? You be the judge. They also add on supposed Angelides statements about "additional" education funding. In the end, they pencil out his tax revenue needs at almost $11.1 billion.

The governor's anti-Angelides ad also talks about "a time... when soaring taxes forced jobs and businesses to flee our state." That, too, provoked tough questions from reporters today, who pointed out that except for the well-known 'car tax,' Gray Davis never raised taxes... and Schwarzenegger hasn't cut taxes. And the Angelides campaign disputes the 'fewer jobs' theory, sending out a memo that claims job growth in California between 1995 and 2003 outpaced the rest of the nation.

Outside of the Team Arnold campaign offices, Angelides' bulldog staffer Bob Mulholland was waiting for reporters being briefed on the ads. He took his own swing at the issue of taxes, saying that Schwarzenegger has "shredded the dreams" of middle-class Californians, with things like tuition hikes... he says those should be counted as, you guessed it, tax increases.

[NOTE: GOP stalwarts think I should credit the governor for one important tax cut: the axing of the VLF increase, the 'car tax.' So noted. Of course, it was actually a 'fee' and not a tax... and as the governor himself said earlier this year when proposing a fee on water users, "You know, a lot of times, you know, fees are fees and taxes are taxes. And that's why they're called fees. And that's why they're called taxes."]