0 For 8?
Today's Field Poll suggests that if the numbers and trends hold up, the November 8th election could produce a solid "no" vote across the board.
This morning's numbers show growing opposition to Proposition 73 (parental notification before an abortion); Proposition 78 (prescription drug discounts, favored by the drug companies); and Proposition 79 (prescription drug discounts, favored by consumer advocates).
Yesterday, Field's latest poll showed all 4 of Governor Schwarzenegger's initiatives losing, as well as the energy re-regulation initiative, Proposition 80.
Field's fall survey did things a little different, by sampling voter opinions in two different time periods (October 18-24, and again October 25-30). When the first survey began, Prop 73 was ahead 45-43... but by the end of the second survey, it had falled behind 41-49. While it's unclear what changed, the debate over Prop 73 in recent days has focused on the initiative's language-- specifically, the section that defines abortion as causing "death of the unborn child, a child conceived but not yet born."
And voters seem inclined to reject both prescription drug initiatives, though almost 1 in 5 voters surveyed remain undecided.
Nonetheless... if the trends hold, all 8 initiatives on the ballot might go down to defeat.
"For the election to have been called and for nothing to have changed, if that's the outcome," says Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo, "I think that's certainly worth noting."
And if that happens, the big winners will undoubtedly be labor unions, Democratic leaders, and the pharmaceutical industry. All have spent big bucks in this campaign season, largely to keep things they oppose from attracting voter support.
(It's worth noting that other polls show the battle over several of the initiatives much tighter, polls that have asked the questions a little differently... expect a lot of post-election talk about the way poll questions are written.)


