November 7, 2005

And Now, The End Is Near…

"And now, the end is near; and so I face the final curtain. My friend, I'll say it clear, I'll state my case, of which I'm certain." --Frank Sinatra, "My Way"

Some 10 months after Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger threw down the proverbial gauntlet in his State of the State speech, the voters are poised to give him either a pat on the back or a blow to the midsection. And you could argue the same fate awaits the Democratic union consortium lined up against him.

The stakes are high for both sides in the election returns. And with that, here are just a few of the questions that will no doubt be on the minds of political reporters, pundits, and campaign operatives as the daytime hours drag by on Tuesday (Election Day itself is a maddening day full of nothing to do for those in the business):

* The Message: Watch for everyone to try and interpret the results as a "victory." Two weeks ago, the governor's chief political consigliere told me that winning just one initiative would be enough (of course, which one?). If Schwarzenegger goes 0-4 on his slate of measures, that would be pretty hard to spin as a "win." Conversely, the Democratic union consortium may have trouble spinning their own "win" if the governor should manage to eek out a victory on all of the close races (conventional wisdom says essentially every initiative except for the budget proposal Proposition 76 could be tight, though some think the redistricting plan Proposition 77 is also not as close as supporters hope).

* The "Marriage": What happens to the relationship between the governor and the Democratically controlled Legislature? There's been chatter that everyone's already looking beyond Election Day by huddling on items like a massive new transportation bond proposal. But some wounds will strike deeper than others... namely, the union dues initiative Proposition 75. If it happens to pass, wouldn't the nuclear meltdown from angry Dems be hard to get around... especially in a re-election year?

* The Morass: Even an initiative that passes on Election Night might not be safe from being challenged in court. Legal battles over two of the initiatives (Prop 77 and Prop 80) were effectively postponed by the state Supreme Court, not necessarily ended. And several Capitol sources say should Proposition 76 pass, there is already a legal challenge written and waiting to be filed.

* The Money: $250 million? More? Do you count just what the campaigns spent, or the cost to local governments to conduct the election? Campaign finance aficionados will long talk about this election, and whether it again points out the need for real finance reform. And what has the heavy-duty check writing done to election/re-election efforts for everyone in 2006?

The election results may come in Tuesday night (or Wednesday morning, if the absentees slow things down), but the real results of November 8th are not going to be clear until some time later.

See you online Tuesday night... from Team Arnold's HQ in Beverly Hills.