Do voters already have their minds made up about the special election initiatives, or can those minds be changed?

That’s the $64,000… umm, $150 million question… at stake– in part– tonight in Walnut Creek.

The Lesher Center for the Arts is the site of an unusual, 90-minute event featuring Democrats and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger fielding questions from an audience of average voters. Truth be told, the 2 sides will not appear on stage at the same time, which makes this much more of a conversation with the audience than a debate.

[The event will be broadcast, tape delayed, on KQED Public Radio at 9:00pm tonight… 88.5 FM in the Bay Area, 89.3 FM in Sacramento, online at kqed.org]

State and national reporters are expected to descend on the event en masse, as well as spinmeisters from both sides to instantly declare winners and losers. Those of us in the media, by the way, are being accommodated in a makeshift press room at nearby Massimo Ristorante, and not actually inside the arts center.

It will be the first event of its kind this election season– especially for the governor, who hasn’t faced a crowd that wasn’t hand-picked by his campaign or its allies. In fact, early negotiations between Team Arnold and the sponsors (KTVU-TV, the Contra Costa Times) reportedly included demands from the Schwarzenegger camp that they get some say in picking the audience. But as far as we know, they didn’t get it.

The Q&A format is one at which the governor does well… though he’s often cagey at giving an answer that’s anything other than the familiar campaign message (as I and other Capitol reporters found out last month).

Aside from answers to policy questions, expect the following questions to be on the minds of the political world as the lights go up at 6:00 pm:

* Can the governor convince skeptics that his self-described reforms are either urgent and/or the best course of action?

* Will Democrats be asked to justify their perceived reticence for any real negotiations on these issues earlier this year?

* Will the substance of any of the measures actually be considered, or will the discussion again be relegated to phrases like “live within our means”, “power grab”, “union bosses”, and “paycheck protection (or deception)”?

* Will there be ANY discussion of Propositions 73, 78, 79, or 80… three of which have largely been devoid of a media campaign?

* Will the Bay Area audience come down strongly on one side or the other, given polls showing Schwarzenegger as especially unpopular there?

* How will media coverage affect internal tracking polls, or public opinion polls (the next of which is expected as soon as the end of this week)?