Political junkies like to play guessing games over campaign strategy. And one initiative that’s providing a lot of fodder in these final days is Proposition 77, the effort to transfer the power of political map drawing from the Legislature to a panel of retired judges.

First, there’s the strategy of the ad campaign. The Yes on 77 team was the first to strike with $2 million worth of ads last week (although campaign consultants would only confirm a week’s worth of purchased airtime). Campaign finance records show that, all told, the committees working to pass Prop 77 have raised about $7.5 million.

The No on 77 folks have raised more money… about a combined $9.2 million… but they’ve yet to take to the airwaves, even though the election is now about two-and-a-half weeks away.

There are also strategic decisions being made about “message”. The Yes on 77 campaign seems intent on trying to counter charges that the initiative is really just a “power grab” by minority Republicans.

Yesterday, Governor Schwarzenegger formally endorsed State Issue 4 on the Ohio ballot this fall. Why? Possibly because State Issue 4 has been widely criticized by Ohio Republicans, who currently hold a 2-1 majority in congressional seats. Maybe standing up to Republicans, albeit out of state, will help Schwarzenegger’s polarized political image here at home.

In the end, whose strategy will work? Will Californians applaud the governor’s decision to reach across state lines as non-partisan? And for opponents of Prop 77, is their decision to hold off on a major TV ad campaign until the 11th hour a brilliant ploy, or have they waited too late?

None of this tells us much about the vagaries of redistricting, but it makes for a pretty good political parlor game.