August 25, 2005

Poll: Behind The Headlines

While this morning’s release of a new survey by the Public Policy Institute of California will make headlines (more low job approval numbers for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, voters think things are going in the wrong direction)… there’s a lot more in this poll that may shed some light into the state of politics in California.

* Schwarzenegger vs. Bush: If you want some perspective on how little confidence seems to exist in the governor these days, consider this: his job approval ratings are lower among California voters than even those of President George W. Bush. 38% of the adults surveyed say they approve of how Bush is handling his job, while only 34% say they approve of how Schwarzenegger is doing his. The governor has slightly more support among non-partisan voters, but slightly less among Republican voters (although within the margin of error).

* Bush “Si”, Schwarzenegger “No”: Perhaps even more troubling for Team Arnold might be the results from Latino voters. Some of the data wasn’t in the PPIC report sent to reporters, but pollster Mark Baldassare says the survey found only 17% job support among Latinos for Schwarzenegger, but 37% support for Bush among the same voters. The margin of error for Latino poll results is 4.5%, so the dropoff between the two Republicans is statistically significant.

* Special Interests: It certainly seems like voters don’t buy the notion that some interest groups are worse than others. Take, for example, two questions in the PPIC poll about possible limitations on political contributions. 55% of those surveyed approve of placing restrictions on campaign contributions from labor unions. That’s essentially the crux of Proposition 75.

But before conservatives start cheering, they should read on: 61% of those surveyed approve of placing restrictions on campaign contributions from businesses and corporations. And that’s the crux of an initiative now being circulated for signatures, which could appear on the June 2006 ballot. In other words: a huge battle over campaign cash appears looming.

You can find the entire poll here.