May 16, 2005

LAO: May Revise "Makes Sense"

The initial analysis of the governor's revised budget is out from Legislative Analyst Elizabeth Hill and her researchers.

Headline: the revised budget's tendency toward spending one-time money on one-time costs is good.

Digging a little deeper:

*The LAO still thinks long-term revenues will be a little higher than Schwarzenegger. She also thinks the administration has overestimated tax receipts in the 2004-05 year.

* Hill continues to raise doubts about some of the governor's budget assumptions-- namely, negotiating $408 million in state employee contract savings; shifting $469 million in teacher retirement costs to local school districts; and paying $525 million in pension obligations by selling bonds.

You can find the full report here.

POST-NEWS CONFERENCE UPDATE: Two other items that will no doubt remain on the radar-- Hill now estimates the structural deficit reappearing in 2006-07 at $5 billion, up from $4 billion in her February analysis... and the much disputed "did he promise to pay or didn't he" amount for K-12 education, Hill says, is now roughly $3 billion.

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