Governor Schwarzenegger sounds like he's giving lawmakers-- and himself-- until June 10th to avoid a special election.

Schwarznegger referenced the date in a short interview with conservative talk radio host Sean Hannity, in which he blamed his opponents for the plummeting poll numbers ("They're lying to the people") and said his goal is to fix the system, not to be popular.

June 10th is pretty much in the middle of the time window officials at the Secretary of State's office estimate the governor has to decide whether he wants a special election.

But the back-and-forth could drag out even longer: the governor and the Legislature may have until as late as June 30th to place any compromise proposals on a November ballot. Sure, any initiative that qualifies would still be there. But the governor could throw his support behind any agreed-upon alternatives... just like he did with the local government funding measure Prop 1A last year.

So should he call a special election, or not?

Speaking to the Sacramento Press Club today, Citizens To Save California co-chair Allan Zaremberg indicated he's less worried about the date of an election than what's on the ballot. "The special election is up to the governor," he said.

But others who traditionally support conservative issues may not keep quiet if everything simply gets pushed to the scheduled June 2006 primary. Lew Uhler, the proponent of the paycheck protection initiative, tells me that Schwarzenegger's "credibility" is on the line if he doesn't call a special election. By the way, Uhler says he'll have all the signatures he needs on his initiative by the end of the week.

It's going to be an interesting few days... and weeks.

First came the news around midday that Attorney General Bill Lockyer has decided not to run for governor in 2006, but instead will seek the office of Treasurer.

Now, an e-mail arrives from state Senator Joe Dunn (D-Santa Ana) saying he's changed his mind on running for Treasurer. Dunn says he and Lockyer have "worked too hard together" on past issues to now be adversaries.

Dunn, you may remember, appeared to be angling for Attorney General... that is, until Jerry Brown entered that race.

Who's next?

Expect a lot of chatter in the next few days about this morning's poll from the Public Policy Institute of California... another poll with shrinking job approval ratings for Arnold Schwarzenegger.

You can read the poll here.

In a nutshell, the PPIC tracks the governor's overall numbers down from 60% approval in January to 40% approval now. That's even lower than the poll earlier this month from San Jose State University.

Dig a little deeper into the new PPIC data and it seems Schwarzenegger has lost the most ground with Democrats (68% now disapprove) and independents (49% disapproval)... two groups that helped him win office in 2003.

Also of interest: even larger percentages of Latinos and African-Americans surveyed now disapprove of how the governor's doing his job than in previous polls... and only 28% of all surveyed adults approve of how he's handling the needs of California's schools. The latter comes on the heels of Wednesday's sudden resignation of Education Secretary Richard Riordan.

To be fair, polls are only a snapshot in time. But even after Schwarzenegger denied earlier this week that the whispers of trouble are anything but "great drama", some well-placed Republicans privately say that the governor's advisers seem to be suffering from a case of political tone deafness.

Those same Republicans credit the anti-Schwarzenegger political ads and rallies in recent weeks with the new softening poll numbers... and wonder why there's been so little of what's called "push back" in answering the criticisms.

Governor Schwarzenegger's news conference on the likely Assembly passage of a large prison reform proposal today prompted only one question from reporters about the issue... and more focus on the political back-and-forth taking much of the governor's time these days.

Reporters asked questions about Schwarzenegger's reform-minded education initiative, as well as his reaction to days of newspaper reports quoting anonymous sources about dissension among the governor's staff-- especially as his political touch has seemed less golden in recent weeks.

And for the man who in the past has declared even the most obvious setbacks to be "fantastic"... today's reaction seemed like more of the same.

Comparing politics to Hollywood, Schwarzenegger said both are full of "great drama." But the smile on his face seemed a little out of place with the tone of what he said next.

"You know, you like to take someone down and build them up again, and talk about the initiatives and how disastrous this is, and great this is. It's great drama. So have a good time with the all the great drama. I don't care. I don't mind it."

The Secretary of State's office has said that the 17 days between yesterday and May 6th are when backers of any initiative will have to submit their signatures, if they hope to make a special election ballot.

And if the money being collected is any indication, no one seems willing to wait for a special election to officially be called.

The governor's allies, Citizens To Save California (CSC), have raised almost $6 million so far. It seems like a sizeable amount, although CSC co-chair Joel Fox told reporters back on March 16th that the goal for the signature-gathering phase was $10 million.

Meantime, the two groups that have lined up to fight the governor's reform ideas are also raising big bucks. The Alliance For A Better California (ABC) has raised about $5 million so far, with more than $1.7 million of that amount in just the last 10 days. The biggest single donor to ABC's efforts to date is the California Teachers Association, which has chipped in a little more than $1.6 million. And the other group, Seriously Saving California, has raised about $5 million... with many of the same donors, as well as groups like the California Correctional Peace Officers Association.

By the way, one piece of political information is being played pretty close to the chest: almost no one wants to publicly confirm how many signatures they've actually gathered so far on any of the initiatives.

And this morning at an event celebrating Earth Day (later this week), Governor Schwarzenegger said there are productive dicusssions going on at the Capitol that could keep the special election from happening at all.

The state's Fair Political Practices Commission has decided to appeal the recent court ruling that would have allowed Governor Schwarzenegger to raise money, without restrictions, for initiatives he has endorsed.

Late last month, a Sacramento Superior Court judge ruled against the FPPC's attempt to apply the contribution limits of Proposition 34 to candidate-controlled ballot measure committees. Those limits kicked in back in November, and meant that any committee controlled by Schwarzenegger could only accept individual contributions in the same amounts as his official gubernatorial committee ($22,300).

That regulation forced the committee of Schwarzenegger allies pushing his budget and education initiatives (Citizens To Save California) to maintain an official arm's length distance from the governor.

But since the March 25 ruling, neither the governor's ballot measure committee (California Recovery Team) or Citizens To Save California has made any moves to take advantage of their victory in court.

Perhaps that was because many people believed the FPPC would appeal... and that while the appeal was underway, the original strict limits would remain in effect. And today's press release from the FPPC made it official.

LOS ANGELES-- Day two of the state Democratic convention was full of more calls for unity, while also including a few sharp elbows among some of the politicians who are angling for new job. It was also another day full of swipes at both Arnold Schwarzenegger and George W. Bush.

* The party's women in Congress were one of Saturday's main attractions. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi was greeted with posters showing her face superimposed on the 1940's drawing of Rosie the Riveter. She took several swipes at Bush and congressional Republicans... as did the party's new rock star, Senator Barbara Boxer. A current critic of all things Bush, Boxer received the loudest and longest ovation of the day when she was introduced to the delegates. She also delivered a line everyone was talking about, weaving together both national and state politics. "John Bolton (Bush's nominee) serving in the United Nations is like Arnold Schwarzenegger running the California Nurses Association."

* Pelosi and Boxer also endorsed Treasurer Phil Angelides for governor. And that race seemed to be the subtext for a number of events. Even a forum advertised as a town hall on the budget, featuring both Angelides and Controller Steve Westly, felt more like a debate. With Westly (who pubicly worked with Schwarzenegger last year) sitting nearby, Angelides quipped, "It's wrong to say, hey, this guy's popular, maybe we ought to change our views." A few minutes later, Westly countered, "We must do more than bash Arnold if we want to win the budget battle and the election in this state." The third wannabe, Attorney General Bill Lockyer, doesn't arrive at the convention until Sunday.

* More Schwarzenegger references: Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata walked up to the podium at the budget event and introduced himself as, "I'm Don Perata and I'm a girlie man." The line was good for a few laughs.

* The big attraction of the day was DNC Chairman Howard Dean. Dean's staffers made very few friends among reporters by hustling him away from any media interviews. But he had the dinner crowd on its feet, hammering Schwarzenegger on criticisms that a promise was broken to fully fund education. Dean said that promise should be kept... adding "we don't need any more corrupt Republicans in this country."

LOS ANGELES-- That guy is, who else, Arnold Schwarzenegger. This weekend's state Democratic convention is largely a chance for the party faithful to confab about how to knock out the GOP governor, who's likely sitting in his Brentwood home on the other side of town.

Random tidbits, updated throughout the weekend:

* If you want your party's nomination for office, you've got to have better freebies for the delegates than the next guy. Phil Angelides' campaign handed out tote bags. Bill Lockyer's gang spent money on the lanyards to which credentials are hung around the neck. Dianne Feinstein has ball-point pens, and John Garamendi has those noise-making thundersticks that you inflate. No freebies yet, however, from new gubernatorial hopeful Steve Westly.

* Democrats were universally giddy about the governor's recent PR battles. In the press office of the convention hang two somewhat unflattering vacation photos of Schwarzenegger in swim trunks (from the tabloids) with a homemade sign that reads, "Gut Going South, Like His Poll Numbers."

* The convention this year has been redesigned to focus on the party's many, and diverse, caucuses. From veterans to labor to rural Democrats, these caucuses are open to the press and an interesting insight into the thinking of everyday Democrats from across the state. Many of the events feature discussions of how to counter what they acknowledge is a streamlined-- and effective-- GOP message machine.

* And the evening parties were packed on Friday after the caucus meetings... state Senator Joe Dunn celebrated his Irish roots with green beer (which was actually Coors Light, a beer from the family of well known Colorado Republican Pete Coors)... LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn threw a martini party... and the women-in-politics group EMILY's List threw an ice-cream social.

The debate over the language inside Governor Schwarzenegger's initiative proposals didn't end when the pension plan was postponed last week. There are more questions about the spending reform proposal and the redistricting plan... and some say they are no less serious.

On this weekend's edition of The California Report (various station times listed here and also online) we're taking a look at specific parts of both initiatives.

In addition to the on-air report, here are a few more issues that came up in the course of my reporting:

*The Schwarzenegger allies circulating the spending limit initiative, Citizens To Save California (CSC), agree with the assessment that the proposal would reduce the long-term funding for schools under Proposition 98, by removing money owed to the schools (after years of borrowing) from the calculations of future funding.

* A CSC representative did not return a phone call, however, seeking their opinion on our report's discussion of how the initiative may give the governor powers that can't be granted by initiative. The issue lies in the fact that changing the balance of power between the governor and the Legislature requires revising the state constitution, which can only be done through either the Legislature placing the item on the ballot or by a full-blown constitutional convention-- but not by an initiative.

* Governor Schwarzenegger often says last year's back-and-forth over reforms to the worker's comp system are a template for what he's doing now-- negotiate, but gather signatures just in case. But even GOP political analyst Tony Quinn says this year is different, because these proposed initiatives were not well drafted or vetted. Quinn says the workers comp changes had been discussed much longer, and were therefore more viable with, or without, the Legislature.

* And the mystery continues over just who bankrolled a radio ad that criticized the governor's plans for redistricting because of the possible involvement of, in their words, liberal federal judges. The committee mentioned in the ad has no real records in California, and the attorney representing the group-- Lowell Finley-- told me the non-profit is organized under Washington, DC laws which do not require disclosure of the donors. The ad, he says, is no longer on the air. Finley was the attorney who challenged reimbursing Governor Schwarzenegger for his personal loan to the 2003 campaign, which has led some Republicans to think Democrats are behind this. Finley denies any connection between that issue and this one.

If you were to guess that a midweek, late morning rally focusing on subjects like state budget policy might draw a small crowd, you'd be right.

That's exactly what happened this morning on the west steps of the Capitol. My own rough estimate is that maybe 200 people were on hand for the "Thank You Governor Schwarzenegger" rally organized by the governor's allies as Citizens To Save California.

The event was designed, according to supporters, to rally the faithful in support of the governor's reform agenda. But many of the onlookers looked to be either legislative staffers stepping out of the building to see what was going on, or tourist groups who happened to be in town. Still, there were die-hard supporters on hand. And as the jazz band played on, the pro-Arnold rhetoric was fever-pitched.

Away from the official event (thanks to private security guards) were about two dozen anti-Arnold protesters, mainly nurses and labor union activists. Two billboards-- critical of the governor-- were driven by an SUV up and down the streets around the Capitol all morning long.
But several Capitol watchers wondered if the rally's real purpose was to combat recent worries that the wheels could be coming off the governor's reform agenda. Last week, the governor decided to abandon his pension reform initiative. This week, there are new questions about the language of his budget reform initiative (including an analysis you can read here by the California Budget Project).

So did the event succeed?

There were miscues that were uncharacteristic of most pro-Schwarzenegger rallies, like when comedian Tom Arnold asked the crowd to help him urge the governor to come join the event. "Come on out, buddy", screamed Arnold. But someone finally whispered in Arnold's ear that the governor was actually on his way to a policy event across town.

And one sign-waving supporter seemed most excited by the portable barbecue cooker brought out to the event... he was overheard saying, "We have to listen to the speeches before we can have a hot dog."