Budget Battle 2005
Get ready for several days of intense reporting on Governor Schwarzenegger’s 2005-2006 budget proposal, a budget that will apparently offer up both more of the same and a call for change.
While the budget won’t be officially unveiled until Monday afternoon, a few details are trickling out. Later today on The California Report (4:30pm and 6:30pm on KQED, other times on other stations), we’ll take a look at one issue embedded in all of this: the recent popularity of budget borrowing.
Meantime, some topics to keep an eye on when the budget finally hits the shelves (actually, it won’t hit the shelves, as discussed here recently):
* The governor’s advisers say the size of the General Fund budget will increase by 4.2% from 2004-2005. Depending on whose numbers you use, that would mean an overall budget in the range of $ 82 billion.
* Schwarzenegger will propose borrowing money to help close the estimated $8.1 billion gap. Included in that will be more money of as much as $3 billion from the Prop 57 deficit bonds, as well as transfers of money originally earmarked for education and transportation.
* Also being proposed are modifications to both of the accounts being borrowed from: Prop 98 and Prop 42. Any new Prop 42 borrowing would effectively be banned two years hence, in a way similar to the deal made last year with local governments.
* Even more intriguing is the governor’s anticipated call for modifying Proposition 98 by eliminating the so-called “Test 3″ funding amount, an idea sure to be hotly debated by policy wonks. “Test 3″ is an alternate (and cheaper) way of determining the level of education funding. While it was ostensibly put in place to keep K-14 education from gobbling up too much of the General Fund in bad economic times, “Test 3″ also requires the (further confusing) “maintenance factor”, which requires that funding go back to the proper levels in the future.
Is the governor’s idea a good one? Depends on who you ask.
Fred Silva, a budget analyst with the Public Policy Institute of California, calls “Test 3″ a “release valve” when times get tough. He says getting rid of it could make things very difficult for future lawmakers, who would then have fewer budget tools at their disposal.
All of this and more will be in play beginning Monday. And when you add in all of the other government reforms Schwarzenegger laid out on Wednesday night, 2005 is shaping up to be a very busy year.


