Reading The Tea Leaves…
As of this writing, we’re still not sure of how some of the larger issues from Election Day will end up. But we can assemble a few tidbits from the California political scene:
* Coattails: Your overall opinion of Governor Schwarzenegger will inevitably color whether you think he has more strength at the ballot box than his predecessors. His successes on Election Day are clearly headlined by the defeat of Propositions 68 and 70… but the other ballot initiatives are more muddled. Then there’s the Legislature, where his endorsements have largely left the Democratic majorities untouched. That fact will no doubt be the story from Sacramento on Wednesday. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-LA) has called a news conference for 11:30am Wednesday morning in his Capitol office. And the governor himself is now holding a news conference at the state Capitol at 1:00pm. Reporters (myself included) are bracing for the spin.
* Getting Their Money’s Worth?: A quick check of the latest campaign finance records shows almost a whopping $80 million dollars was spent either for– or against– the two Indian gaming initiatives on the ballot. And at the end of the day, the state of tribal gambling in California is exactly where it was before all of this began.
* Getting His Money’s Worth?: Republican Steve Poizner really wanted a seat in the state Assembly– so much so, that the Silicon Valley multi-millionaire spent some $6 million dollars of his own money to win in the 21st Assembly District near Palo Alto. Unfortunately for Poizner, it’s a district drawn to favor Democrats. In the end, even the endorsement of the governor didn’t help the GOP moderate, who looks to have now lost by about 5,000 votes. Early calculations show he spent about $86 of his own money for each vote he received.
* Protecting Local Government: If Election Night trends hold, voters will have said yes to Proposition 1A and no to Proposition 65. A brief explainer: Prop 65 was the result of signatures gathered by local officials across the state earlier this year, when they believed the governor and lawmakers were going to take local money– yet again– to help balance the budget. Later, the governor negotiated a deal with local officials, resulting in Prop 1A… a replacement measure. But some critics say Prop 65 would have actually provided more protection for local revenues than Prop 1A. Regardless, a new mandate now apparently exists on how (or how not) to balance the state budget… and yet another tool that lawmakers have used in recent years is off the table. So, too, is long-term massive borrowing (Prop 58 took care of that in March). And with next’s year’s deficit projected at near $6 billion dollars… how that gets resolved is anyone’s guess.


