November 2, 2004

Nothing Left To Do… But Wait

Election Day is a painfully long day for everyone involved in politics– candidates, campaign workers, and political journalists alike. Weeks and months (sometimes years) of work is finally in the hands of the voters. I’ve known many politicos who find themselves at the gym, at a matinee movie, anything to fill the morning and afternoon before returns start to come in by mid-evening… and, as many believe again this year, into tomorrow morning.

If you’re reading this (and we hope you are!) you obviously care about more than just the too-close-to-call race for the White House. So some California notes to keep in mind as we await the returns to start trickling in sometime after 8:00pm:

* Who Turns Out: Even in a state that was all but ignored nationally, the official projection is that 12 million Californians will turn out to vote. That would not be a record percentage-wise, but it would be a record when it comes to actual votes cast.

* How We Vote: This is the first real test of the many changes made in California voting systems sparked by the Florida chaos in 2000. Many election watchers will keep an eye on the 10 counties where touch-screen machines were allowed to be used, as long as voters also have the option of using standard paper ballots. Some of the systems were prone to failures in March, and California is largely seen as a bellwether state in how officials have worked to resolve those problems.

* What We Vote On: 16 ballot propositions, 100 members of the Legislature, countless local elected officials and ballot measures. There’s always a fear of voter fatigue, of people who simply can’t make it all the way through the ballot and either abstain on many items, or just vote “no” to be safe.

* How Much Can Arnold Lift?: For once in his life, not a literal question. This time, Governor Schwarzenegger will be judged– rightly or wrongly– by how several ballot propositions, and some of his chosen legislative candidates, fare by the end of tonight. The polls suggest Proposutions 68 and 70 (Indian gaming) are dead on arrival, so that’s a win for the guv. Prop 66 (amendments to “three strikes”) was doing well in the polls until last week, when Schwarzenegger’s TV ad hit the airwaves, and support started to wane. And while the governor endorsed Prop 62 (open primaries) and Prop 71 (stem cell research), he’s been all but missing in the campaigns for those initiatives. Pundits also doubt he will move the numbers much in the Legislature. Democrats currently control the Assembly 48-32 and the Senate 25-15. Projections are that no more than 1 or 2 seats in each chamber will switch parties, at the most.

The California Report will offer live coverage of Election Night 2004 beginning tonight at 8:00pm, on our stations across the Golden State. We hope you’ll join us.